April 16, 20196 yr 15 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: I think we've discussed this previously but the WAR per dollar value that is publically available is horribly sourced - using simplistic analysis based solely on FA's WAR to dollar signed. I'd guarantee most organizations have it scaled, and broken out into trade, fa and arbitration values giving each player and avenue a different SV based on that. I'm not at my computer now, but what did Frazier produce WAR wise with the Yankees? More importantly, what was his expected WAR output prior to the deal? Given you want to use SV to measure trade value and we do not have the scaled SV calculations for each org, the publicly available info is all we could use. Can't have your cake and eat it too. As I said earlier, he produced 1.6 bWAR in 3 months on a $4.5M prorated salary. I do not have the expected WAR output, but as I said, according to "publicly available" WAR value, he had $30M in surplus value in the 1 1/2 years before the trade, and $10M in surplus value in the 3 months after the trade, so it's not like he jumped out of nowhere and produced. Point is you let him on as a zero or negative value player, that is far from the truth from SV perspective, no matter how scaled the team's calculations are.
April 16, 20196 yr 4 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said: They are based on surplus value regardless; the calculation is simply adjusted to give more credence to their present day value than the FV of a prospect. For example, say they view Robertson as being worth 1 win to the the rest of the way, and they value a win at $9.5 million (no team does, but we'll just use the FA number), and he was owed $5 million the remainder of the season. His present day surplus value to them, is 4.5 million. But if we are saying that the B-Level prospect is worth 8 million, then wouldn't that be a net loss of 3.5 Million? Sure, but the Yankees may depreciate that 8 million FV by 50%, because the wins that B-Level prospect could provide them with is coming from a position of organizational strength, and a win 7 years from now may be worth 13 million, so that 8 million is equal to less than 1 win 6 years from now, bringing the present day value of the 40FV prospect at 4 million so the Yankees calculated their net return to be .5 million. FV is more valuable to bad teams and present value more valuable to good teams. This is how you see some overpayments at trade deadline. Who cares. If the Sox hadn't made the trade and kept those guys we still would have sucked. Maybe Rutherford develops and maybe he doesn't, but he has shown the ability to hit and catch.
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.