At what point does Hahn "blow it up"?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

Literally all of those key details are because they had the pitcher with the highest WAR in MLB bullpens and the AL Saves leader. Aside from "Middle of the pack in holds" everything else you just noted was "Liam Hendriks is quite good".

I’m not even going to bother with those numbers because I actually watched the team last season, not sure Two-Gun does that just complains. I remember it well. Bullpen was a huge weakness outside of Liam. This was consensus. There is no debating it. Getting even one reliable reliever at the deadline in Tepera was like a godsend. It’s a shame Kimbrel was a bust but I don’t blame the front office for taking a big swing at fixing the pen because that was the one glaring weakness at the time (and 2b following Nick’s injury). 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

LOL, was that the "eye test" metric you're using?

Sorry, but numbers don't lie. You [and more importantly, RH] were dead wrong on that. I knew it BEFORE they squandered assets on Kimbrel, pretty much the rest of SOX fans discovered it this offseason, which leaves just you and RH to defend this move.  

Hendriks was amazing. The rest not so much. You can cite all the advanced metrics you want, the bullpen was not good outside of Hendriks headed into last year’s trade deadline.

[Two-Gun Pete]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Literally all of those key details are because they had the pitcher with the highest WAR in MLB bullpens and the AL Saves leader. Aside from "Middle of the pack in holds" everything else you just noted was "Liam Hendriks is quite good".

Incorrect. If your manager would rather wear down the rotation instead of using the bullpen, your RPs have fewer opportunities to accumulate fWAR and HOLDS.

Despite the fact that the SOX bullpen had the fewest IP and the 2nd-fewest game appearances at the TDL, the pen STILL produced middle-of-the road HOLDS totals.

 

That was a pen that punched above its weight, given the limitations on appearances by the manager. And yes, Hendriks was quite good as well.

[Two-Gun Pete]

2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Hendriks was amazing. The rest not so much. You can cite all the advanced metrics you want, the bullpen was not good outside of Hendriks headed into last year’s trade deadline.

Incorrect. Fewer appearances generally = fewer HOLDS for a pen, because of fewer opportunities for HOLDS.

However, this was a pen with the fewEST IP, and 2nd fewEST appearances, yet they managed middle of the road HOLDS.

 

This was not a team that had any need for a closer.

[southsider2k5]

30 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Their bullpen was in shambles last July. They had one reliable reliever at the time - Hendriks. Were we watching the same team?

He doesn't care how badly they were performing at the time before the trade deadline.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Incorrect. Fewer appearances generally = fewer HOLDS for a pen, because of fewer opportunities for HOLDS.

However, this was a pen with the fewEST IP, and 2nd fewEST appearances, yet they managed middle of the road HOLDS.

 

This was not a team that had any need for a closer.

You know what else leads to a lot of holds? Teams that are leading late in games and winning a lot. The Sox did that as good as anyone into July last season so get out of here with that stat.

[Two-Gun Pete]

8 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

You know what else leads to a lot of holds? Teams that are leading late in games and winning a lot. The Sox did that as good as anyone into July last season so get out of here with that stat.

Incorrect. Atlanta, who were ~.500 at the TDL, had more HOLDS than our SOX. Atlanta had only 12 more HOLDS, despite their RPs appearing in 68 more games, and throwing 40 more IP.

More appearances = more opportunities for holds. Kinda like more PA = more opportunity to produce for batters. So, bat Leury 3rd.  

Edited April 22, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

He doesn't care how badly they were performing at the time before the trade deadline.

Seems he’s pretty upset they traded Madrigal even though Madrigal is nothing more than an average starting 2b with no versatility.

[southsider2k5]

12 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Lol. I don’t care what stats you want to throw out there, there was no one they could trust in late inning situations outside of Hendriks last July. Kopech was the only other reliable late inning reliever at the time but he was coming off a June IL stint and there were already concerns about fatigue/effectiveness.

July #s in the pen

Ruiz 2.53 era

Kopech 4.91 era

Bummer 14.54 ERA

Crochet 5.50 ERA

Heuer 2.79 ERA

Foster 4.26 ERA

Burr 6.75 ERA

Looks like October to me.

 

 

 

 

 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

July #s in the pen

Ruiz 2.53 era

Kopech 4.91 era

Bummer 14.54 ERA

Crochet 5.50 ERA

Heuer 2.79 ERA

Foster 4.26 ERA

Burr 6.75 ERA

Looks like October to me.

 

 

 

 

 

Absolutely electric! And the two guys with respectable numbers (Ruiz, Heuer) no one wanted to see in late inning high leverage situations.

[Two-Gun Pete]

5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Absolutely electric! And the two guys with respectable numbers (Ruiz, Heuer) no one wanted to see in late inning high leverage situations.

I know, right?

 

Fun with sample sizes, AND [snicker] relief pitcher ERA?

The year 1985 wants its pitching analysis back.

 

 

[Two-Gun Pete]

33 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

July #s in the pen

Ruiz 2.53 era

Kopech 4.91 era

Bummer 14.54 ERA

Crochet 5.50 ERA

Heuer 2.79 ERA

Foster 4.26 ERA

Burr 6.75 ERA

Thanks for the latest iteration of, "Fun With Sample Sizes!" July 2021  IP:

Ruiz: 9.2 IP

Kopech 10.0 IP

Bummer: 4.1 IP

Crochet: 6.2 IP

Heuer: 8.2 IP

Foster: 6.1 IP

Burr: 9.1 IP

 

I mean, 6.1 or 6.2 IP are truly illuminating, amirite? And "reliever ERA," that's so modern and advanced.

Edited April 22, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete
Forgot to add Aaron Bummer's career-defining 4.1 IP

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Two-Gun Pete said:

Thanks for the latest iteration of, "Fun With Sample Sizes!" July2021  IP:

Ruiz: 9.2 IP

Kopech 10.0 IP

Crochet: 6.2 IP

Heuer: 8.2 IP

Foster: 6.1 IP

Burr: 9.1 IP

 

I mean, 6.1 or 6.2 IP are truly illuminating, amirite? And reliever ERA, that's so modern and advanced.

It's quite literally the point you are missing.  The pen in July, right before the deadline, was pretty awful outside of the closer.  Even the top guys were struggling.  Whole season WAR doesn't tell the right story, which is why you are using it in hindsight.

[Two-Gun Pete]

13 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It's quite literally the point you are missing.  The pen in July, right before the deadline, was pretty awful outside of the closer.  Even the top guys were struggling.  Whole season WAR doesn't tell the right story, which is why you are using it in hindsight.

Yup, since we're going "back in time" with our RP analysis, Ruiz's 2.53 ERA was such a tragedy. And Heuer's 2.79 [snicker] ERA was horrific, right?

[Look into who gets charged with "earned" runs if they inheirit a runner.]

 

Also, really? a 6.2 or 6.1 or 4.1 IP sample size? Why not limit it further to ONLY tuesday afternoon games in July?

That way, we'd get a representative sample of a useful metric [snicker, RP ERA] that has true meaning.

 

Also, I didn't cite "whole season" WAR, I sorted it to the pre-TDL totals. Yes, Hendriks accumulated 1.6 fWAR out of the 4.1 the team accumulated before the TDL.

Edited April 22, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete
Had to add Aaron Bummer's 4.1 IP sample size.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Two-Gun Pete said:

Yup, since we're going "back in time" with our RP analysis, Ruiz's 2.53 ERA was such a tragedy. And Heuer's 2.79 [snicker] ERA was horrific, right?

[Look into who gets charged with "earned" runs if they inheirit a runner.]

 

Also, really? a 6.2 or 6.1 IP sample size? Why not limit it further to ONLY tuesday afternoon games in July?

That way, we'd get a representative sample of a useful metric [snicker, RP ERA] that has true meaning.

So you would have been OK with Ruiz and Heuer being our 7th and 8th inning guys in the playoffs based on that? 

Ok, Mr Revisionist history.  I know you need to invent things to be mad about, but the Sox trading for relievers last year is an awful one.

[Two-Gun Pete]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

So you would have been OK with Ruiz and Heuer being our 7th and 8th inning guys in the playoffs based on that? 

Ok, Mr Revisionist history.  I know you need to invent things to be mad about, but the Sox trading for relievers last year is an awful one.

No, you try to attack me over the obvious, which is that this team did not need another closer. When I show data proving it, you attack me. When I illustrate how silly [snicker] Relief Pitcher ERA, over a microscopic sample size is, you attack me again.

 

It's all so "WSI" of you. Either we all "toe the line" and think the same way, or the other party is "whining" or "crying" or whatever.

 

Sorry, but I'll never contort my mind into believing that Kimbrel was ever a good idea. It was an incredibly dumb idea that did nothing for the 2021 team, while making the 2022 team and beyond older, worse, and more expensive.

Edited April 22, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[southsider2k5]

2 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

No, you try to attack me over the obvious, which is that this team did not need another closer. When I show data proving it, you attack me. When I illustrate how silly [snicker] Relief Pitcher ERA, over a microscopic sample size is, you attack me again.

 

It's all so "WSI" of you. Either we all "toe the line" and think the same way, or the other party is "whining" or "crying" or whatever.

 

Sorry, but I'll never contort my mind into believing that Kimbrel was ever a good idea. It was an incredibly dumb idea that did nothing for the 2021 team, while making the 2022 team and beyond older, worse, and more expensive.

Again.

The Sox needed relief pitchers, and they got the best one on the market.

When I showed you why they needed a reliever, you ignored the obvious and tried to pretend that what was happening in July, August, and September somehow applied as valid for decision making at the trade deadline.

And the irony of the guy who has repeatedly labeled everyone and thing he doesn't agree with as "stoopid" catching feelings over what phrases are being used in an argument isn't lost on anyone.

[Two-Gun Pete]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

Again.

The Sox needed relief pitchers, and they got the best one on the market.

When I showed you why they needed a reliever, you ignored the obvious and tried to pretend that what was happening in July, August, and September somehow applied as valid for decision making at the trade deadline.

And the irony of the guy who has repeatedly labeled everyone and thing he doesn't agree with as "stoopid" catching feelings over what phrases are being used in an argument isn't lost on anyone.

I disagree, and I showed you more representative numbers than you showing Aaron Bummer's [snicker] ERA over a career-defining 4.1 IP sample.

I showed you the splits from the beginning of the year through 7/30/21. It had nothing to do with August or September.

 

Yes, there's irony, in that if you can show me attacking anyone [other than RH/KW/the FO], feel free to show us. I'll happily call TLR, RH, KW all "stoopid," but you won't find me doing that to my fellow poster. OTOH, you feel comfortable attacking the poster, while giving TLR, RH, and the FO a free pass.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Two-Gun Pete said:

I disagree, and I showed you more representative numbers than you showing Aaron Bummer's [snicker] ERA over a career-defining 4.1 IP sample.

I showed you the splits from the beginning of the year through 7/30/21. It had nothing to do with August or September.

 

Yes, there's irony, in that if you can show me attacking anyone [other than RH/KW/the FO], feel free to show us. I'll happily call TLR, RH, KW all "stoopid," but you won't find me doing that to my fellow poster. OTOH, you feel comfortable attacking the poster, while giving TLR, RH, and the FO a free pass.

Wait, I am giving Tony LaRussa a pass?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA

[Two-Gun Pete]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

 Wait, I am giving Tony LaRussa a pass?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA

Ya know what, you're right, now that I think on it. You'll criticize TLR, but you'll give RH a pass.

Like with the Kimbrel trade. 

 

Me including TLR was as funny as you including Aaron Bummer's 4.1 IP sample, and using RP ERA as a talking point.

Edited April 22, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[southsider2k5]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

Wait, I am giving Tony LaRussa a pass?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA

Also calling an idea that people might think stupid, is just a cute way of calling people stupid, without actually having the backbone to call them stupid directly.  Honestly, I would respect you more if you weren't trying to hide it behind some lame plausible deniability.

[Two-Gun Pete]

Kinda like not quoting the other poster. It's like attacking the other guy without attacking them directly.

 

Yes, ideas can be stupid, just like the Kimbrel trade was a stupid idea. And yes, smart people can have stupid ideas.

Edited April 22, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

33 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I know, right?

 

Fun with sample sizes, AND [snicker] relief pitcher ERA?

The year 1985 wants its pitching analysis back.

 

 

Since you’re the smartest guy here, who from that list did you trust in late inning high leverage situations?

[joejoesox]

Boys, let's change the subject!

[Two-Gun Pete]

8 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Since you’re the smartest guy here, who from that list did you trust in late inning high leverage situations?

Not saying I'm the smartest guy here, but I'm smart enough to notice that the bullpen was doing better than the 24th-best in MLB RFer at last TDL.

Almost every contender needs to supplement the bullpen going into the 2nd half, to stave off regression, injuries, and/or wear and tear on a bullpen. But not every team needs to buy an old, expensive closer when the one you already have was an AL All Star at the TDL, AND had no signs of wearing down. 

Edited April 22, 2022 by Two-Gun Pete