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Pivetta to Padres...


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WestEddy is hiding today after taunting me for over a week about Padres' anticipated spending levels...

Waiting until the last second ended up in number of bargains last year (Profar especially)...looks like the same type of cheaper makeover happens this time around.

$4 million for this season is crazy.

And they still might trade Cease King Suarez Arraez to free up more money and get back prospects.  Plus they have Musgrove back from TJS in 2026.

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19 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

WestEddy is hiding today after taunting me for over a week about Padres' anticipated spending levels...

Waiting until the last second ended up in number of bargains last year (Profar especially)...looks like the same type of cheaper makeover happens this time around.

$4 million for this season is crazy.

And they still might trade Cease King Suarez Arraez to free up more money and get back prospects.  Plus they have Musgrove back from TJS in 2026.

Hiding? I'm happy for the Padres to punt draft picks. 

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31 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Hiding? I'm happy for the Padres to punt draft picks. 

"Signing Pivetta will cost them only one pick -- their second highest of the 2025 Draft -- plus $500,000 from their international bonus pool."

52, Padres, $1,762,500   (that was last year)

 

You're also forgetting the Padres signed the top-ranked international prospects in 2022 (Salas), 2023 (deVrieze) and finished second on Sasaki.

Pretty confident they can do better with their international pool than the White Sox have traditionally done with their second picks...

Also, they're only paying Pivetta $4 million this year...basically the same as Mr. Josh Rojas for very consistent 2.0, 1.9, 1.5 and 2.3 fWAR production...keeping in mind that the defense behind him and the run suppression at night time Petco likely means even better numbers like it did for Cease and King leaving the White Sox and Yankees, respectively, for SD.

Edited by caulfield12
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16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

"Signing Pivetta will cost them only one pick -- their second highest of the 2025 Draft -- plus $500,000 from their international bonus pool."

52, Padres, $1,762,500   (that was last year)

 

You're also forgetting the Padres signed the top-ranked international prospects in 2022 (Salas), 2023 (deVrieze) and finished second on Sasaki.

Pretty confident they can do better with their international pool than the White Sox have traditionally done with their second picks...

Also, they're only paying Pivetta $4 million this year...basically the same as Mr. Josh Rojas for very consistent 2.0, 1.9, 1.5 and 2.3 fWAR production...keeping in mind that the defense behind him and the run suppression at night time Petco likely means even better numbers like it did for Cease and King leaving the White Sox and Yankees for SD.

If the widow's legal action is scaring away players like Sasaki, it's probably good they're losing pool money, as those prospects might be backing out of deals, just to steer clear of that chaos. 

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7 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Ripping on the Padres as a White Sox fan is hilarious.  When is the last time the White Sox had 4 winning seasons in a 5 year stretch and made the playoffs 3 times in that window?

2024

NL Division Series Los Angeles Dodgers Lost, 3-2
  NL Wild Card Series Atlanta Braves Won, 2-0
2022 NL Championship Series Philadelphia Phillies Lost, 4-1
  NL Division Series Los Angeles Dodgers Won, 3-1
  NL Wild Card Series New York Mets Won, 2-1
2020 NL Division Series Los Angeles Dodgers Lost, 3-0
  NL Wild Card Series St. Louis Cardinals

Won, 2-1    (13 post-season victories in the 2020's including 4 series wins, versus 2 for the White Sox, 13-13 overall record)

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8 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Ripping on the Padres as a White Sox fan is hilarious.  When is the last time the White Sox had 4 winning seasons in a 5 year stretch and made the playoffs 3 times in that window?

Of course it is. The White Sox certainly had 4 winning seasons in 5 around the time they won a World Series, something the Padres have never done, and probably won't do with this bunch of players. It's funny guys like you would rather their team never win a championship, just as long as you get to root for money being spent. LOL. 

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5 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

If the widow's legal action is scaring away players like Sasaki, it's probably good they're losing pool money, as those prospects might be backing out of deals, just to steer clear of that chaos. 

Thanks, Mr. Jurickson Profar (by the way, his brother signed with the White Sox)...the fact of the matter is that almost everyone in the world but Blue Jays and Padres fans expected him to sign with the Dodgers from the very beginning.

And the exact same thing will likely happen with Murakami next season unless he has a terribly disappointing year with the Yakult Swallows.

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7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

2024

NL Division Series Los Angeles Dodgers Lost, 3-2
  NL Wild Card Series Atlanta Braves Won, 2-0
2022 NL Championship Series Philadelphia Phillies Lost, 4-1
  NL Division Series Los Angeles Dodgers Won, 3-1
  NL Wild Card Series New York Mets Won, 2-1
2020 NL Division Series Los Angeles Dodgers Lost, 3-0
  NL Wild Card Series St. Louis Cardinals

Won, 2-1    (13 post-season victories in the 2020's including 4 series wins, versus 2 for the White Sox, 13-13 overall record)

It's cute when fans of teams that have never seen a championship count up playoff games and dollars spent, as if they have banners for Bogaerts' big paychecks. LOL. 

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8 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Of course it is. The White Sox certainly had 4 winning seasons in 5 around the time they won a World Series, something the Padres have never done, and probably won't do with this bunch of players. It's funny guys like you would rather their team never win a championship, just as long as you get to root for money being spent. LOL. 

So your position now is that owners spending money is somehow bad???

Or just the way the Padres have spent?

Because it seems to me there's a very high correlation between payrolls and attendance numbers since the start of the 2019 season when Machado joined SD.

 

2017 MLB Attendance=18th

2018 Attendance=18th

2019 Attendance=14th (arrival of Machado/Tatis, Jr.)

2020 COVID

2021=3rd

2022=5th

2023=3rd

2024=4th

Edited by caulfield12
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8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

So your position now is that owners spending money is somehow bad???

Or just the way the Padres have spent?

Because it seems to me there's a very high correlation between payrolls and attendance numbers since the start of the 2019 season when Machado joined SD.

I think you logged into the wrong account in responding to this. Sure there's a correlation. The Padres have been throwing around stupid money for a decade. We could sign Andrew Vaughn for 10/$600M, and it wouldn't add a win. 

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8 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

It's cute when fans of teams that have never seen a championship count up playoff games and dollars spent, as if they have banners for Bogaerts' big paychecks. LOL. 

That's all Dodgers' fans had to show for 12 straight post-seasons and 11 NL West championships (106 win team finished second to SFG) until COVID year and then they barely made it past SD this past season or it would have been 1/12, and 2020 would have come with an *** asterisk.

Should they have discouraged their ownership group from competing at that point?

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9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

That's all Dodgers' fans had to show for 12 straight post-seasons and 11 NL West championships (106 win team finished second to SFG) until COVID year and then they barely made it past SD this past season or it would have been 1/12, and 2020 would have come with an *** asterisk.

Should they have discouraged their ownership group from competing at that point?

The Padres haven't won a World Series. I'm not sure what's so hard to understand about that sentence. 

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4 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I think you logged into the wrong account in responding to this. Sure there's a correlation. The Padres have been throwing around stupid money for a decade. We could sign Andrew Vaughn for 10/$600M, and it wouldn't add a win. 

This is where you're in preposterous territory.

Andrew Vaughn has never had even a 1.0 fWAR or above in his entire career.

 

Xander Bogaerts was at 4.6 fWAR, 6.0 fWAR, 4.1 fWAR and 6.0 fWAR in the four FULL seasons before he signed with SD.

20.7/4=5.2 average

The gave him too many years, but that was the market at the time...his SS skills were eroding as he aged, we all know that FA's at age 30 or beyond are riskier based on regression in the post-steroids era, especially players that rely/relied upon their speed to create value.

He has been worth 6.6 fWAR so far to SD.

He was also hurt for much of the 2024 season.

6.6 fWAR over $51 million for 2023-24=7.7 fWAR per million, just a slight overpay

He would have to average closer to 7.0-7.5 fWAR the next 9 years to make it "neutral," but at best he's only likely to do that the next 3-4 years.  They're eventually going to have to eat something like $125 million, like the Tigers' contract for Javy Baez, essentially.

Do most of their fans prefer that they signed DeJong, Nicky Lopez and Jacob Amaya/Josh Rojas instead of signing Bogaerts?

MAYBE????

At best, Bogaerts should have been offered a 6-7 year deal, but FA forced them to overspend by 2-3 years since they'd already missed on FA targets like Aaron Judge prior to that.

Cost of doing business.

Name one GM who has signed almost ten $100+ million contacts in the last 4-5 years that has never made a single mistake with any of them.

(And yes, 1B Erik Hosmer was yet another bad contract.)

 

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11 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

The Padres haven't won a World Series. I'm not sure what's so hard to understand about that sentence. 

And White Sox fans in 2025 care about 2005 right now SO MUCH that they're still buying season tickets?

At best, that buys you five years of good will from fans, according to market research.

 

Rays, Brewers, Guardians, Rockies, Mariners fans should basically just give up?

And Marlins' fans should come out now to support their team because of 1997 and 2003...something that happened over twenty years ago?

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5 hours ago, WestEddy said:

Of course it is. The White Sox certainly had 4 winning seasons in 5 around the time they won a World Series, something the Padres have never done, and probably won't do with this bunch of players. It's funny guys like you would rather their team never win a championship, just as long as you get to root for money being spent. LOL. 

Going back 20 years?  Okay…

Well, the White Sox have been a team in existence since 1901.  The Padres have only been around since 1969.  That’s 68 more seasons that the White Sox have played.  In 68 less seasons, the Padres have 8 playoff appearances while the White Sox only have 11 with an insane advantage of time.  Let me repeat that — in 68 more seasons of baseball, the White Sox have only been to the playoffs 3 more times than the Padres.  That’s flat-out embarrassing no matter how you try to justify [sugarcoat] it.

I’m pretty sure this stat is also still accurate — among all 30 MLB teams, the White Sox have the worst ratio of playoff appearances (11) compared to their total seasons in existence (124).

Meanwhile, the Padres have to compete with the Dodgers while the White Sox division is typically one of the weakest in all of baseball.  If you think the Padres are a pathetic franchise worthy of your jokes, what does that make the White Sox?

Finally, what does your last sentence even mean?  Why can’t the White Sox start acting like a major market team and do both — spend money AND win championships?

Yes, “LOL” indeed.  🤡 

Edited by WhiteSox2023
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Congrats to WestEddy for making the Padres look semi-sympathetic for their Icarus-like small market getting too close to the sun act...

You would think JR was a complete idiot for ever considering another "big" FA contract due to the risks it might go wrong...which usually happens about 2/3rds of the time paying aging players for performance at their peak.

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"The Pivetta contract structure helps a Padres team that is trying to keep costs down for a second straight offseason and was already running a 2025 payroll of about $194 million, roughly a $30 million increase from where they were on Opening Day last year."

...

"They Padres are projected to be a couple of million over the lowest luxury tax threshold and that might well be the target, so I wouldn't expect much in the way of additions the rest of the winter."

Oops!!!

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/43780926/2025-mlb-offseason-winners-losers-free-agency-dodgers-mets-braves-padres

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Anyone that thinks being a White Sox fan over a Padres fan is delusional.  

There is zero reason to be a White Sox fan currently absolutely nothing to look forward to until JR joins Virginia and Rocky.

These are the same times as when the ABC line was the "big thing" for the Blackhawks.

  

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https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6133192/2025/02/12/san-diego-padres-nick-pivetta-deal/

"When complete, the new contract will merely increase San Diego’s projected 2025 payroll to $207 million, according to FanGraphs. Team and league sources indicated Wednesday night that the Padres currently are inclined to hang on to Cease, a pending free agent, and enter the upcoming season with a rotation led by Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish and Pivetta.

A deal involving closer Robert Suarez remains at least a decent possibility. Suarez is owed $10 million in 2025 and can opt out after the season. The Padres, still seeking to trim some payroll, believe they could field an effective bullpen even if they end up moving him."

 

$207 million real payroll but $259 for CBT purposes.

They got Profar for peanuts last year at this time...and Joe/Heyward for a similar $2 million in total.

OFC they have Gavin Sheets now...who won't see any LHP.

 

Edited by caulfield12
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"The Padres signed left-hander Kyle Hart -- a former big leaguer who pitched in Korea last season and won the Korean version of the Cy Young Award -- to a one-year contract with a club option for 2026 on Thursday."

"Hart pitched for the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization in 2024 and won the Choi Dong-won Award, awarded to the KBO League's top starting pitcher. The 32-year-old made 26 starts for the Dinos and went 13-3 with a 2.69 ERA and 182 strikeouts in 157 innings (10.4 K/9). Hart led the KBO in strikeouts and ranked second in both wins and ERA."

https://www.mlb.com/news/kyle-hart-contract-with-padres

Following in the footsteps of Nick Martinez and Erick Fedde...now they have a five deep rotation, Waldron-Vasquez-Brito-Kolek-Hoenig backing that up and they will probably reacquire Martin Perez at the trade deadline lol.

Musgrove back next season.

Edited by caulfield12
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"Notably, the Twins are not alone in recognizing Hart’s potential, as other prominent teams such as the New York Yankees, Milwaukee Brewers, Houston Astros, and Baltimore Orioles have also expressed interest in securing his services. The widespread interest in Hart underscores the competitive landscape of MLB free agency, where teams are actively scouting for talented players to fortify their rosters and elevate their chances of success in the upcoming season."

https://motorcyclesports.net/surprise-twist-in-mlb-free-agency-minnesota-twins-indicate-interest-in-rejuvenated-lefty-kyle-hart/

Read where between 12 and 18 teams scouted him last year...and at his showcase.

$1 million contract for 2025, $5 million option for 2026.

Edited by caulfield12
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