SoxMachine Article on Chris Getz's Vision

[southsider2k5]

9 minutes ago, Jake said:

FWIW, the Sox underperformed their BaseRuns record by 7 wins as well. Both of these are reasonably good ways of removing luck from your results. Teams rarely show any repeatable ability to win close games, etc. I think it's more than fair to say that last year's team was better than its record suggests. More likely than not, they will play closer to whatever their record ends up being this year. Part of that means they could stay about the same and win 70 games. FWIW, bad bullpen is already accounted for in pythagorean and related statistics *unless* you pre-suppose that the Sox used their worst pitchers at the most important times, which I don't think was the case. I recall some very bad luck with their best relievers on the mound...Grant Taylor suffered from some serious seeing-eye singles in a few key moments, for instance. 

But if it keeps happening,  it most likely means a flaw in the stat.  Call it the Mark Buehrle rule.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

7 hours ago, kitekrazy said:

This is very difficult in baseball and so few are good at it.

This was all over 10 years too late in this organization.   

I just don't want them to be like the Brewers and trade away because of salary and be confident of the replacements.   Even the best organizations hit and miss.  When the miss is in the postseason for not spending even that will dwindle interest. The Brewers and once the Rays were really good for 162 but that's it. 

I often hear that it sucks for fans that you can't hang onto players.But that fantasy went out the window 50 years ago when Free Agency started.

You can extend players before they become really good but we saw the downside of that. 

The Dodgers are actually good at finding and developing talent despite signing many great and very expensive free agents and winning a lot of games every year.

You want to build and then continue to expand the foundation in the remaining Reinsdorf years when money for the roster is scarce. More money could show up depending on the CBA, and unexpected success of the team or if Colson Montgomery and Murakami both start the 1st couple of months on a 40 HR pace and attendance spikes up. By the time Ishbia takes over I think the Sox will be in a better place to emulate small market development teams that they have hired from like the Brewers and Tampa pay while Ishbia outspends at least the other teams in the division on a regular basis with a chance to even spend on a level the Sox have never been.

For the next couple of years we'll see if the good start in 2025 for the hitting positional player prospects can continue while they work in the high profile pitching prospects that got a huge boost from nabbing Shane Smith in the Rule 5 and Tanner McDougal's big jump last year. Then Grant Taylor could move into the rotation next year if this year goes according to plan as can McDougal or maybe even half or more of this year. 

We need McDougal type leaps from Hagen Smith and Noah Schultz . 

Taylor could be a beast this year after just screwing around with a 2 seamer and finding out he could get a lot of movement on it. 

If McDougal can show he can command his pitches his stuff is outstanding. He is actually the closest to moving into the rotation.

Christian Oppor also had a nice jump last year. Not sure where he starts the season, maybe Birmingham. He needs to find a 3rd pitch that works for him. He's got a good FB and changeup. Sweeper/Slider could be it. 

McDougal (2021),Oppor (2023) and Sam Antonacci (2024) were all 5th Round picks so Sox have been finding value other than the 1st round. Just have to wait to see where it goes. But if you've been watching ST games you can see the high talent level of Antonacci and McDougal. 

Edited 9 hours ago by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[caulfield12]

41 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I often hear that it sucks for fans that you can't hang onto players.But that fantasy went out the window 50 years ago when Free Agency started.

You can extend players before they become really good but we saw the downside of that. 

The Dodgers are actually good at finding and developing talent despite signing many great and very expensive free agents and winning a lot of games every year.

You want to build and then continue to expand the foundation in the remaining Reinsdorf years when money for the roster is scarce. More money could show up depending on the CBA, and unexpected success of the team or if Colson Montgomery and Murakami both start the 1st couple of months on a 40 HR pace and attendance spikes up. By the time Ishbia takes over I think the Sox will be in a better place to emulate small market development teams that they have hired from like the Brewers and Tampa pay while Ishbia outspends at least the other teams in the division on a regular basis with a chance to even spend on a level the Sox have never been.

For the next couple of years we'll see if the good start in 2025 for the hitting positional player prospects can continue while they work in the high profile pitching prospects that got a huge boost from nabbing Shane Smith in the Rule 5 and Tanner McDougal's big jump last year. Then Grant Taylor could move into the rotation next year if this year goes according to plan as can McDougal or maybe even half or more of this year. 

We need McDougal type leaps from Hagen Smith and Noah Schultz . 

Taylor could be a beast this year after just screwing around with a 2 seamer and finding out he could get a lot of movement on it. 

If McDougal can show he can command his pitches his stuff is outstanding. He is actually the closest to moving into the rotation.

Christian Oppor also had a nice jump last year. Not sure where he starts the season, maybe Birmingham. He needs to find a 3rd pitch that works for him. He's got a good FB and changeup. Sweeper/Slider could be it. 

McDougal (2021),Oppor (2023) and Sam Antonacci (2024) were all 5th Round picks so Sox have been finding value other than the 1st round. Just have to wait to see where it goes. But if you've been watching ST games you can see the high talent level of Antonacci and McDougal. 

It’s going to take more than “unexpected success of the team or if Colson Montgomery and Murakami both start the 1st couple of months on a 40 HR pace and attendance spikes up…”

2011 2,001,117   24,705

2012 1,965,955   24,271

led the division almost the entire way over Detroit with Ventura Sale Quintana Reed, etc.

fans still didn’t buy in 100% based on declining attendance and underlying concern that Detroit was always the better team

 

Probably need your Colson/Murakami homers…an extension for Murakami, breakouts from Braden/Schultz/Hagen (2 of 3) and the two most exciting draft picks in Sox history, and another Japanese star like Sato coming on board (would also trade Benintendi for Yoshida and cash/prospects).

And finally some good fortune with the overhanging lockout/labor issues.

Then you can start taking significant attendance spikes.

Not 1994 or 2000 bad luck.

Edited 9 hours ago by caulfield12

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

It’s going to take more than “unexpected success of the team or if Colson Montgomery and Murakami both start the 1st couple of months on a 40 HR pace and attendance spikes up…”

2011 2,001,117   24,705

2012 1,965,955   24,271

led the division almost the entire way over Detroit with Ventura Sale Quintana Reed, etc.

fans still didn’t buy in 100% based on declining attendance

 

Probably need your Colson/Murakami homers…an extension for Murakami, breakouts from Braden/Schultz/Hagen (2 of 3) and the two most exciting draft picks in Sox history, and another Japanese star like Sato coming on board (would also trade Benintendi for Yoshida and cash/prospects).

And finally some good fortune with the overhanging lockout/labor issues.

Then you can start taking significant attendance spikes.

Not 1994 or 2000 bad luck.

Fans dig the long ball. Sox fans will come Caulfield of Broken Dreams.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Fans dig the long ball. Sox fans will come Caulfield of Broken Dreams.

That's true, but it helps a lot if the team is at least competing for second or third place.

White Sox teams from 2000-2004 and most of the 2000s and 10's were built on the premise that big offense is better for attendance than speed/pitching/defense.

This was for a 2 million attendance team with pretty close to average revenues from 2010-2012.

 

"Kenny Williams said low attendance numbers at U.S. Cellular Field means that he won't have the flexibility at the trade deadline to add money to his payroll.

"The answer is no, if I'm being completely honest with you. And I wish I were lying," Williams said. "But the fact of the matter is we haven't earned our fans' patronage up to this point in the fashion that we played and the weather hasn't helped as well so we're a little behind the eight ball financially."

Williams said with the team playing better and more games at home he hopes they will get more fan support. After playing 30 of their last 43 games on the road, the White Sox are hosting 23 of their next 35 games.

espn.com

 

 

Edited 6 hours ago by caulfield12

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

11 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

That's true, but it helps a lot if the team is at least competing for second or third place.

White Sox teams from 2000-2004 and most of the 2000s and 10's were built on the premise that big offense is better for attendance than speed/pitching/defense.

This was for a 2 million attendance team with pretty close to average revenues from 2010-2012.

 

"Kenny Williams said low attendance numbers at U.S. Cellular Field mean that he won't have the flexibility at the trade deadline to add money to his payroll.

"The answer is no, if I'm being completely honest with you. And I wish I were lying," Williams said. "But the fact of the matter is we haven't earned our fans' patronage up to this point in the fashion that we played and the weather hasn't helped as well so we're a little behind the eight ball financially."

Williams said with the team playing better and more games at home he hopes they will get more fan support. After playing 30 of their last 43 games on the road, the White Sox are hosting 23 of their next 35 games.

espn.com

 

 

Ancient history. Time to stop looking backwards The future is here.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Ancient history. Time to stop looking backwards The future is here.

Not until JR is out of the picture…or at least the new stadium financing is secured.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Not until JR is out of the picture…or at least the new stadium financing is secured.

JR is still here and not spending but the team is moving forward regardless. The starting pitching could be stacked by next year with some prospect luck. Braden Montgomery , Antonacci, & 2026 1:1 could all make sooner than expected impact. Grant Taylor, McDougal, H. Smith, Schultz, & S. Smith could all be pitching in the starting rotation. And there could be a surprise or 2. That's what's exciting about the future. It's known to a degree but unknown,too. 

Can't hurt to have the Pope aboard. 

Has JR talked at all about the Pope ? I know he's not Catholic but you'd think he'd at least acknowledge the most famous Sox fan in the world.

I know they have said and done supportive things re: the Pope that had JR's blessing but I dont recall any JR quotes about it.

Edited 3 hours ago by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

JR is still here and not spending but the team is moving forward regardless. The starting pitching could be stacked by next year with some prospect luck. Braden Montgomery , Antonacci, & 2026 1:1 could all make sooner than expected impact. Grant Taylor, McDougal, H. Smith, Schultz, & S. Smith could all be pitching in the starting rotation. And there could be a surprise or 2. That's what's exciting about the future. It's known to a degree but unknown,too. 

Can't hurt to have the Pope aboard. 

Have JR talked at all about the Pope ? I know he's not Catholic but youd think he'd at least acknowledge the most famous Sox fan in the world.

Neither the Pope, nor president 44 mentioned...

https://jaymariotti.substack.com/p/the-fcc-chair-is-trumpian-and-the

 

Didn't realize Mariotti was still involved in sports journalism...

Edited 3 hours ago by caulfield12

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

12 hours ago, Jake said:

FWIW, the Sox underperformed their BaseRuns record by 7 wins as well. Both of these are reasonably good ways of removing luck from your results. Teams rarely show any repeatable ability to win close games, etc. I think it's more than fair to say that last year's team was better than its record suggests. More likely than not, they will play closer to whatever their record ends up being this year. Part of that means they could stay about the same and win 70 games. FWIW, bad bullpen is already accounted for in pythagorean and related statistics *unless* you pre-suppose that the Sox used their worst pitchers at the most important times, which I don't think was the case. I recall some very bad luck with their best relievers on the mound...Grant Taylor suffered from some serious seeing-eye singles in a few key moments, for instance. 

Given the Sox roster churn, this simply doesnt matter YoY.

Also, runs scored and allowed are also influenced by sequencing luck. It's really difficult to say this is what this team should have been. In reality, bad fundamentals, bullpen and defense will correlate to poorer performance in close games. 

The goal of base runs and Pythagorean is to project the majority of results, which both do better than Win % itself. That said, it doesnt mean it's a reflection of all expected results. Nor is it an automatic indicator of poor luck. 

Edited 2 hours ago by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Also not sure why you think a bad bullpen is specifically accounted for. Assuming you all are using BR py, its merely (runs scored ^ 1.83) / [(runs scored ^ 1.83) + (runs allowed ^ 1.83)

Edited 2 hours ago by Look at Ray Ray Run

[ptatc]

7 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Ancient history. Time to stop looking backwards The future is here.

Those who live in the past suffer depression.

Those who live in the future suffer anxiety

Only those who live in the present love in their right mind.

Paraphrase from Lao Tzu

[caulfield12]

13 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Those who live in the past suffer depression.

Those who live in the future suffer anxiety

Only those who live in the present love in their right mind.

Paraphrase from Lao Tzu

"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."

Sun Tzu

 

Might want to remind JR of that quote...since he talks like the Brooklyn Dodgers and Branch Rickey are still around.

Edited 40 minutes ago by caulfield12