January 26, 200422 yr Lack of experience usually does more bad then good, as you say. I remember in the 2002 World Series when Chone Figgins was used as a pinch runner that he made many bad mistakes running the bases. To make those mistakes, you don't need to just pinch run, all you need to do is get on base. Also, watching Jacque Jones a couple years ago in those same playoffs, you saw what an inexperienced player can do. I remember watching him, and he just killed the Twins offensively, constantly striking out. In Jones's entire playoff career(which is only 3 series or 14 games), he has a .161 average, and he has struck out 17 times, including 12 of those coming in the 2002 playoffs, and 8 of those 12 coming in the ALDS against Oakland, and that's the one I watched the most. That's only one of the reasons why someone could and should be brought in to help us at 2B. Excellent examples.. Another thing that worries me.. say he does start doing well... the attitude. Royce did it. D'Angelo did it. They all do it at some point or another. They get the game winning hit.. or catch a great ball.. and their s*** don't stink. Obviously there is no more room in the clubhouse for these types of things... unfortunately I think it goes with the growing. Again.. I hope I'm wrong.
January 26, 200422 yr Obviously there is no more room in the clubhouse for these types of things... unfortunately I think it goes with the growing. Again.. I hope I'm wrong. Steff, when you always say "I hope I'm wrong," don't you always feel your usually right..?
January 26, 200422 yr Steff, when you always say "I hope I'm wrong," don't you always feel your usually right..? Unfortunately.. as history has confirmed.. the bad feelings are usually the right ones with this club..
January 26, 200422 yr I was honest. I still wouldn't be surprised if Willie improved this year quite a bit. Maybe hits .260-.280 or so compared to wwhat he's done in recent years. You never know.
January 26, 200422 yr was wondering what your guys opinions are on these 5...please rate them from 1 to 5 with 1 being the guy you are most confident will either rebound back to form (konerko) or continue development towards a breakout year (harris - olivo - crede - rowand) and of course 5 being the guy you are least confident in...here are their ages and stats konerko , 28 years old , 18 -65 -.234 , 704 ops crede , 26 years old , 19 - 75 - .261 , 741 ops harris , 26 in june , 0-5 ,205 , 500 ops , 12 of 14 sb's rowand , 27 in august , 6 - 24 , 287 , 779 ops olivo , 26 in july , 6-27 , 237 , 650 ops Konerko: Will have a big year this season and silence all his petty detractors. Crede: Breakout season is imminent Rowand: If he gets significant playing time could be huge Olivo: See Rowand Harris: Has to step up now that Alomar is gone.
January 26, 200422 yr Unfortunately.. as history has confirmed.. the bad feelings are usually the right ones with this club.. Steff, oh Steff, Oh Steff! Remember we have a new Sheriff in town/manager and a new attitude. He won't let this type of thing happen to young players like Willie Harris. I also believe his long time side kick Hopalong Cora has taken care of Rowand and his attitude. I have to agree though Willie is still a big if, but I really don't think he will play like D Jimenez.
January 26, 200422 yr Steff, oh Steff, Oh Steff! Remember we have a new Sheriff in town/manager and a new attitude. He won't let this type of thing happen to young players like Willie Harris. I also believe his long time side kick Hopalong Cora has taken care of Rowand and his attitude. I have to agree though Willie is still a big if, but I really don't think he will play like D Jimenez. This is just my opinion... and I really, really hate to say this guys.. but if you really think that Ozzie is anything more than a "what would you like for me to do Mr. Williams and Mr. Reinsdorf" man... then you're in for a loooooong season. This team.. the guys ON the field will win despite the 3 ring circus filling out the lineup. Led, no doubt, by Frank Thomas...
January 26, 200422 yr konerko , 28 years old , 18 -65 -.234 , 704 ops 1 crede , 26 years old , 19 - 75 - .261 , 741 ops 2 harris , 26 in june , 0-5 ,205 , 500 ops , 12 of 14 sb's 5 rowand , 27 in august , 6 - 24 , 287 , 779 ops 3 olivo , 26 in july , 6-27 , 237 , 650 ops 4 Of course it all depends on your definition of "rebound". I would think that if Olivo throws out 40+% of runners, improves his game calling/framing skills and keeps errors/PB's down.....So even if his OPS is only 700 (below average even for a catcher), I would consider it an "improvement". Rowand is all about solid defense, running, bunting and 750 OPS. Ditto Willie...The lower the OPS is, the more steals and better D he better have. Crede- 800+ OPS and 80+ RBI and good D. Konerko- 840 OPS, 90+ RBI and 10 less GIDP and fewer whiff-on-a-balls at 1B. I guess.
January 27, 200422 yr With about 80 steals. Wow he's going to steal a base every time he gets on, That would be impresive.
January 27, 200422 yr 1. Crede - A full year under his belt, should stedily improve. 2. Rowand - Should produce ok with a full time role, .260 15hr 65rbi 15sb is my guess. 3. Konerko - will be back to his streaky self, .280 25hr 90rbi 25sb. 4. Olivo - Will improve more defensively and hit about .240, good enough for me from a catcher. 5. Harris - I have my doubts and there will be a lot of pressure since I think the team really needs a strong lead off man, I'll be surprised if he hits better than .240.
January 27, 200422 yr Author i tallied up all the rating and here are the averages.....20 soxtalk fans voted so far .. i just added up the numbers and divided by 20..so the lowest number is the guy we best feel will have a break out year crede 33 points for a 1.65 average konerko 42 points - 2.1 rowand 60 points - 3.0 olivo 77 points - 3.85 harris 87 points - 4.35 soxnet posters pick joe crede to have a bust out year..konerko to bounce back atleast close to his all star form...we seem to be on the fence as to what aaron rowand will do...hopefully harris and olivo picked up some college along the way cause soxnet posters dont think they will have very long careers thanks guys..we will have to check this at the end of the season and see if we should start our own pyschic network
January 27, 200422 yr Godfather, I think you are overestimating Rowand's ability to hit for average. The HR number you listed is realistic, but I will be surprised if he hits .275. The RBI's actually will be a stretch if he hits out of the two-hole. I really think he can and will hit for average as well as some power I dont think that a 300 average for him is setting to high a standard I think it is something he can easily make. JMO
January 27, 200422 yr Everyone will consider this negative, but I see Miguel Olivo as our new Ron Karkovice. Great defensively, and a great teammate, but will never hit above .240. However, he will have some power numbers. The difference is that we could afford to have Karko because the rest of the lineup was really good - I can't say that now.
January 27, 200422 yr I think this team will be fine with Miguel. I just wish we had a true leadoff hitter, so Willie could hit 9th. I know I am thinking far ahead, but if a leadoff hitting shortstop could be obtained for 2005, we could have a nice lineup, assuming Rowand and Harris are decent (they don't need to be all-stars). It could look like this...... SS TBD RF Reed LF Lee DH Thomas 1B Konerko 3B Crede CF Rowand (he could switch positions with Reed) C Olivo 2B Harris With a solid leadoff hitter, the face of this lineup would change. It is still RH dominant in the middle and perhaps one of those guys would be moved to mix a LH bat in there. I like the possibilities here. Sorry for looking way ahead.
January 27, 200422 yr Author I think this team will be fine with Miguel. I just wish we had a true leadoff hitter, so Willie could hit 9th. I know I am thinking far ahead, but if a leadoff hitting shortstop could be obtained for 2005, we could have a nice lineup, assuming Rowand and Harris are decent (they don't need to be all-stars). It could look like this...... SS TBD RF Reed LF Lee DH Thomas 1B Konerko 3B Crede CF Rowand (he could switch positions with Reed) C Olivo 2B Harris With a solid leadoff hitter, the face of this lineup would change. It is still RH dominant in the middle and perhaps one of those guys would be moved to mix a LH bat in there. I like the possibilities here. Sorry for looking way ahead. if you are looking into the future where does borchard fit in???....dont tell after all the hype this guy wont even make the starting line up
January 27, 200422 yr The real question mark for both 2004 and the next 3 years as well is Mark Buehrle. His ERA and batting avg. agnst. have both been trending upwards and his other stats increasingly don't look too well either. Is this just a blip in what might be a fairly long career or is it possible that by the time that Buehrle's new contract ends, that he may be more or less washed up? If this is an irreversible trend, then my prediction is that his ERA in 2004 will be in the 4.50-4.75 range and if he wins any more than 15 games, its only going to be due to the offense coming through. What do the rest of you think?
January 27, 200422 yr If this is an irreversible trend, then my prediction is that his ERA in 2004 will be in the 4.50-4.75 range Yeah,...and by the time he pitches for the Cards, it would be around 6.00. Mark will be find. If he is healthy, 3.75 ERA is what I am looking at.
January 27, 200422 yr I think this team will be fine with Miguel. I just wish we had a true leadoff hitter, so Willie could hit 9th. I know I am thinking far ahead, but if a leadoff hitting shortstop could be obtained for 2005, we could have a nice lineup, assuming Rowand and Harris are decent (they don't need to be all-stars). It could look like this...... SS TBD RF Reed LF Lee DH Thomas 1B Konerko 3B Crede CF Rowand (he could switch positions with Reed) C Olivo 2B Harris With a solid leadoff hitter, the face of this lineup would change. It is still RH dominant in the middle and perhaps one of those guys would be moved to mix a LH bat in there. I like the possibilities here. Sorry for looking way ahead. Sox need to concentrate on maxing out their payroll in 2004, making the playoffs, winning some of its fanbase back and pulling in enough revenues to make a case for an increased payroll in 2005. In '05, a 70 Mill payroll will suit me just fine. I presume Maggliio is byebye-gglio, Koch and Valentin will be off the books off the books. that's 25 Mill right there. If Frank produces, give him a 1-year deal. If not, then it's another 6 Mill freed up to push the total to 31 plus whatever JR spends after seeing good attendance in 2004. That's as much as 40 Mill of cash. Resign Loaiza and Marte. And Wunsht. Get a FA #3. Cross fingers that at least 2 of Garland, Show, Rauch, Pacheco, Cotts can be good #4 and #5. (say, ERA under 4.20 and 4.50 respectively) Hope that 2 of Diaz/Wright/Shingo/Politte/Person/Munoz/Adkins can be good BP guys. (say, ERAs under 4.00) And that 2 of Olivo/Reed/Borchard/Harris/Uribe/Rowand fullfiull their potential (say, good D, speed and OPS of at least 750) Next go out and spend close to 20 Mill of the remaining dough on #3 and #4 hitters. Hoepfully the market will be depressed enough to be able to afford Edmonds/Giles-type guns.
January 27, 200422 yr if you are looking into the future where does borchard fit in???....dont tell after all the hype this guy wont even make the starting line up Perhaps Borchard can be the LH bat that can allow them to move Konerko. Until he proves himself, I am not counting on Joe B. to be an everyday player at this point. It may happen, but realistically it may be 2006 before he is really ready to play everyday.
January 27, 200422 yr If Frank produces, give him a 1-year deal. If not, then it's another 6 Mill freed up to push the total to 31 plus whatever JR spends after seeing good attendance in 2004. Frank still has another option with the Sox for 2005 and IIRC, it is at $8 million.
January 27, 200422 yr The real question mark for both 2004 and the next 3 years as well is Mark Buehrle. His ERA and batting avg. agnst. have both been trending upwards and his other stats increasingly don't look too well either. Is this just a blip in what might be a fairly long career or is it possible that by the time that Buehrle's new contract ends, that he may be more or less washed up? That is a valid concern. How well Mark does this year could very well tell what direction his career is headed. Let's hope that in 2 years Sox fans aren't screaming that KW was stupid for giving Mark the contract he got considering the trends you mentione. Let's hope Mark gets back into a groove this year, wins 17-18 games and continues being a solid #1 or #2 starter.
January 27, 200422 yr Frank still has another option with the Sox for 2005 and IIRC, it is at $8 million. Right....so that leaves roughly 12 Mill to find Magglio's replacement. Come to think of it, I am not so sure I got the money thing right at all.....Assuming the current payroll swelles another 5-7 Mill to 68-70 mark in 2005 after a good 2004 (going on the limb, I know), let's see: 1B Konerko- 9 Mill DH Thomas 8 LF Lee - 7.5 SP Burhle - 5.5 That's 30 Mill right there. So another 38-40 Mill to spend. Clean-Up - ?? Loaiza - ?? Good #3 SP - ?? Marte (arbit) - ?? RH set up/closer - ?? Shingo- ?? Wunsht - ?? Garland (arbit) - ?? Uribe (arbit) - ?? Crede/Harris/Reed/Borchard/Rowand/Wright/Person/Politte/Jackson/Munoz/Gload Pacheco/Diaz/Olivo/Rauch/Cotts/Adkins/Yofu/Grili -- all cheap Hmmm...cutting it pretty close to the max....lolol
January 27, 200422 yr Perhaps Borchard can be the LH bat that can allow them to move Konerko. Until he proves himself, I am not counting on Joe B. to be an everyday player at this point. It may happen, but realistically it may be 2006 before he is really ready to play everyday. He won't get until 2006. This is the make or break year for Borchard IMO. Otherwise, he'll be dealt if you ask me.
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