Hawk's Analysis

[LosMediasBlancas]

Jim, that doesn't change this team all that much.

[Yossarian]

Ain't that something how two views of a message board post, or anything else for that matter can differ so widely? Very little consensus in life these days.

[kapkomet]

JimH,

 

I agree with your assessments except Uribe. I just don't think he can cut it in a full season. You are right, however, in that if you don't play him out there to work through the down times you won't ever know the true type of player he is.

 

I also assume in your stance that FT will stay for another year as your DH?

 

Would you let Everett go?

 

One of those two has to be your DH - if not both since Everett hits from the left side. Remembering how FT came back from injury in '02 worries me about his start. A slow start by FT is a slow start for the Sox in '05 I'm afraid, and we cannot afford that.

 

Should be an interesting last month of the season from a playing time perspective to see who has what.

 

Joe Borchard has to go as well. I think they are leaning that way anyway from the sounds of it.

[winninguglyin83]

more outstanding work by JimH.

 

I hope you work in the Sox front office.

 

The Number One thing we need to improve is player development.

 

Frankly, ours is awful.

 

In 1998 and 1999 we drafted a s***pot of pitchers high -- Parque, Wells, Fogg, Rauch, Ginter, Purvis, Stumm, Wright and others.

 

What do we have to show for it?

 

Not much.

 

The best home grown pitcher we have is Buehrle, who was a draft and follow.

 

How many position players have we developed on this team?

 

Crede, who is starting to look like a bust.

 

Lee.

 

Rowand.

 

Ordonez, but he came along 6 or 7 years ago.

 

We havn't come close to developing a shortstop since Bucky Dent. We're terrible at running the bases, hitting cut off men, knowledge of the strike zone, patience and getting on base. Those are all things teams like Oakland value, draft for and teach in the minor leagues.

 

The player development folks have some explaining to do -- and then they need to be replaced.

[Yossarian]

more outstanding work by JimH.

 

I hope you work in the Sox front office.

 

The Number One thing we need to improve is player development.

 

Frankly, ours is awful.

 

In 1998 and 1999 we drafted a s***pot of pitchers high -- Parque, Wells, Fogg, Rauch, Ginter, Purvis, Stumm, Wright and others.

 

What do we have to show for it?

 

Not much.

 

The best home grown pitcher we have is Buehrle, who was a draft and follow.

 

How many position players have we developed on this team?

 

Crede, who is starting to look like a bust.

 

Lee.

 

Rowand.

 

Ordonez, but he came along 6 or 7 years ago.

 

We havn't come close to developing a shortstop since Bucky Dent. We're terrible at running the bases, hitting cut off men, knowledge of the strike zone, patience and getting on base. Those are all things teams like Oakland value, draft for and teach in the minor leagues.

 

The player development folks have some explaining to do -- and then they need to be replaced.

Another mighty fine post in my estimation.

[Yoda]

pitching

1. burly,freddy,jose

free agent,free agent.

Now that would be sweet... but it’s not happening. Williams will sign a good FA starting pitcher in the off season but two good SP’s is asking for too much. I can see him getting some good bullpen help but can’t see Garland moving into the pen.

[YASNY]

MOST Important: Get this minor league instructional situation under control. They are not teaching these kids to play the right way - someone in this thread says we have guys come up who still don't know what to do, whether it's pitchers who don't perform or position players who have brain cramps. Find out what the Twins do and model it. Find out what Oakland does and model it.

 

 

 

This goes hand in hand with my contention that we need to start letting these young guys mature in the minor leagues and not be so quick to rush them up the ladder. While they are down there, the should be taught the right way to play the game. There should never be a minor league hitter come up to the Sox that does not know how to execute a sacrifice bunt or a hit and run. Every minor leaguer should get a small stipend ($10 or so) everytime they hit a hard line drive that hits the screen protecting the pitcher during batting practice. Muscle memory to hit the ball hard up the middle should already be in place by the time they get to AAA. They should be well school schooled on the defensive fundamentals .... hitting the cut off man, being a cut off man, when to cut, how to set your self up for a throw from the outfield, how to block pitches if you're a catcher, etc. Pitchers should be taught three things ... attack, attack and attack. And when that fails, attack.

[winninguglyin83]

as an organization, and as fans, we have little patience.

 

lots of folks were ready to dump Rowand last fall and last spring.

 

Now, he has finally gotten an extended chance to play and delivered.

 

As bad as Crede has looked, he still needs more patience and a chance to rebuild his confidence.

 

The front office never really gave Kip Wells, Josh Fogg, Matt Ginter, Jon Rauch an extended chance to prove themselves.

 

making the move from the minor leagues to the bigs is a huge adjustment. Most guys struggle for a bit. Sometimes you have to let a guy fail for a while before you finally reap the benefits.

[kapkomet]

I think MB is a perfect illustration of your points. They didn't rush him and he is one of the most consistent pitchers around now.

 

I think most of the time with these guys it's between the ears. They need to be taught to think about how the game is supposed to be played, and not how fast can I get to the majors. The better players will be the ones that think better and not on talent alone, most of the time...

[winninguglyin83]

They also need to learn how to deal with failure.

 

 

It's a 162-game season. You're going to strike out with the bases loaded, get picked off, throw to the wrong base, get tagged out at home in the ninth, give up the go-ahead home run and let a ball go through your legs.

 

The guys who make it are the guys who can put that behind them and play the next day. The guys who struggle are often the guys who dwell too long on the failures.

[Guest JimH]

making the move from the minor leagues to the bigs is a huge adjustment. Most guys struggle for a bit. Sometimes you have to let a guy fail for a while before you finally reap the benefits.

This is a good point.

 

Very few guys will come up and immediately dominate, and a key issue is looking for, and expecting, progress and improvement.

 

That's what concerns me about a guy like, say, Diaz. Same problems 5 starts in a row - he should be able to make some adjustments.

 

To answer komet's question, it's my belief that both Frank Thomas and Carl Everett will make their 2005 return decision, and both will exercise their player options. That being said, Everett can play some OF, likely splitting time with another guy in RF - someone the Sox could acquire who'd be capable of playing all 3 positions. I like Timo well enough but IMO we need to upgrade. KW loves Everett and he's good insurance if either Thomas or one of the OF's gets hurt.

 

Bottom line, I think you'll see the left side of the infield change, the bullpen will have at least two new faces, you'll see a very good starting pitcher brought in, and you'll have 2 new reserve players ... one infield, one outfield.

 

One key to remember IMO, is what other teams will want and be able to afford. In general, other teams want young, cheap players whom they feel have an upside.

 

I can't wait to see what they do, it will be very fun to watch it unfold.

[greg775]

The turning point was Crede whacking a big home

run to win a game for us walk off style.

 

For some reason our dysfunctional boys saw that

as a negative and lost about 15 of 18 at home

after that.

[LDF]

I'll take a stab at this.

 

I will take it position by position ...

 

And all of this is predicated on the Sox wanting to win at least the division in '05.

 

RF:  I would try to sign Maggs to an incentive laden 1 yr. deal or an incentive laden 3 year deal.  If Maggs is healthy and produces he wins big and so do we.  If he's not healthy, we are not on the hook for much.  If Maggs and his agent don't like this scenario, we move in a different direction.

 

CF:  I'd leave Rowand there until Anderson forces the Sox to make a decision.  That won't happen until 2006.

 

LF:  I'd leave Lee there, he's just coming into his prime and he's at the very least comparable to the best LF in the American league.  Better than most.

 

3B:  Explore the market for Crede, this is where the Sox will get the most return.  He's had a down year but he has value.  Go for a stud bullpen arm and maybe another good reserve player.  I think the Sox can get this for Crede.

 

SS:  End the Valentin era. Aim higher than Vizquel, but sign him if he's the best guy available to the Sox.  Immediately, and I mean right now, make a priority in every single trade that's made to land a SS prospect.  Collect two or three.  Draft two or three.  Let's get this thing solved.

 

2B:  Play Uribe there a lot, while also using him as a super sub guy who can back up at 3B and SS.  Uribe should play 140 games next year, let's see if he can progress, or if he'll regress ala Crede.  I think he'll make progress.

 

1B:  Konerko and Gload are ok but you've got to see if you can upgrade here too.  If you can move Konerko for a ready-to-go prospect (which I doubt) or you can get the right amount of pitching for him, do it.  Gload?  Whatever.  He is a 25th guy, has done well for the Sox, but I won't cry one way or the other.  Decent reserve guys can be found.

 

Catching:  Davis, Burke, and get a 3rd guy as the utility guy who can catch in a pinch.  Ryan Hankins?  Sandy Alomar = coach or minor league manager.

 

Starting Pitching:  Sign a free agent who is at least #2 or #3 caliber.  Keep Buerhle, Garcia, Contreras (no brainer).  Explore the market for Garland.  If trading him and Crede nets you significant assets, do it.  Believe me, there is a big market for both Crede and Garland.  If you can't get exactly what you want for Garland, he stays as your #5.

 

Relief Pitching:  I agree with Don Cooper.  Shingo has done a great job for this team, pick up his option but have him as back up closer and use him in the 7th or 8th or in a situational role.  If we count on him as closer in '05, he'll burn out.  He's not used to this long of  a season and he's 35-36.  Also, launch Politte.  Tries hard, can't throw enough strikes.  Make sure you get a power arm in return for whomever you trade.  Give Bajenaru a long look.  Keep Marte.  Either keep Cotts as the other lefty or bring one in if Cotts is a guy who goes in trade.  Munoz "could" be your other left handed guy, he's better suited to relief.  Adkins is ok as long relief but put him on a short leash and have serious competition in spring.

 

Managing:  Guillen has done ok, the chemistry appears to be better.  He needs to get a little LaRussa in him though.  Don't let this team get pushed around.  Being the pascifist didn't work too well, although I understood where he was coming from but didn't agree.  Chicago fans like a hard nosed bunch anyways.

 

MOST Important:  Get this minor league instructional situation under control.  They are not teaching these kids to play the right way - someone in this thread says we have guys come up who still don't know what to do, whether it's pitchers who don't perform or position players who have brain cramps.  Find out what the Twins do and model it.  Find out what Oakland does and model it.

My take on next yr will be depending on some trades that kw is surely going to make.

 

cat we are set with davies/burke with minor leaguer hankins

1b paulie and who? big frank will sign on. where will that leave everett?

2b along with 3b is going to be the wild card. my take is uribe will get the call

3b crede will stay with the team

ss i hate to say this but in all likelyhood, the minor leaguer we got from fla will get the nod

 

 

of

rf they will offer mags a contract for the purpose of getting picks. if he accept expect him to get traded somewhere in the season

cf arow

lf expect lee to get traded esp of mags take the offer and look for everett in the of

 

pit

 

1,2, and 3 are set with freddy, mark and jose.

 

4 look for a fa

5 look for garland or has he really burned his bridge with ozzie

 

relief

expect a pickup here.

 

this is how i see it.