Wanne Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 Some more math... Johnson won 31% of ARZ's games... 31% of Sox wins=26 Even for as accurate as that is....he shoulda won a HELL of alot more. His run support was frickin' ridiculous. I bet probably 10 games this year they scored 1 run or less for him. I'm too lazy to look it up...but I know it had to have been at least 6 or 7 games of 1 run or less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goober Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 Some more math... Johnson won 31% of ARZ's games... 31% of Sox wins=26 you cant make that comparison. it doesnt work like that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soxfan420 Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 I think your math there is a little off. Garland will probably win between 10-12, whatever free agent we sign will probably win between 12-15. Johnson will probably win between 19-23, and the warm body will probably do 6-10. So the worst to best case scenario for Garland and the FA is 22-27, while the worst case scenario for RJ, warm body is 25-33. Not a huge difference, but when you get to the playoffs, and teams have to face RJ, Garcia, and Buerhle, that's where it really pays off. 10-12 is a little light for garland and 19-22 is to much for johnson at his age how many starts do you think he has left and at 34 mill for the next 2 year?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soxfan420 Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 you cant make that comparison. it doesnt work like that they have a RJ hard on they have to pull all the strings until there is nothing left dont you know? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSFAN35 Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 10-12 is a little light for garland and 19-22 is to much for johnson at his age how many starts do you think he has left and at 34 mill for the next 2 year?? Has he shown any signs of slowing down? I don't know if you saw that he threw a perfect game just last year. He's consistent every game, Garland is not. He will dominate in the playoffs, Garland will not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santo=dorf Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 While getting paid five times more money. Look at the other 5 of the 6 years and you tell me if he deserved that money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KWs OK for Me Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 3 : games with 1 run given up that are losses 3 : ND with 0-1 runs through 6+ IP 3 : games with 2 runs given up through 7+ IP that are losses I'm not saying you would win everyone of those on a contender, but most likely you would win at least 6 of the 9. 6 more wins give him 22 wins. Not bad for someone who everyone is calling over the hill and over priced. If the deal of Garland, Marte, Sweeney, + PTBL is correct, I don't know how KW has jumped at it already. That is a steal for this type of HOF pitcher, IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santo=dorf Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 You cannot say garland is a 12-15 game winner since garland has never won more than 12. Yeah but he's only 25!!!!!! :rolly :rolly :rolly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sircaffey Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 they have a RJ hard on they have to pull all the strings until there is nothing left dont you know? What are you talking about? You think I meant Randy would have won 26 games? That stat, which is fact compared to your "Garland is worth 12-15 wins" opinion, was meant to get you to realize that Randy is a horse and despite being on the worst team with one of the worst offenses, he put up 16 wins. HE won games by himself. The offense did not win the games. A lot of times with Garland, the offense wins the games. That was not the case last year with RJ. He pitched himself to 16 wins. On the Yanks, Angels, or Red Sox, he would have easily won 22 games...He was THAT good... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 Randy Johnson is too old to give away all those players mentioned in the first post. If I was another GM, I'd hold out big time when trading with the Sox because Kenny will overpay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSFAN35 Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 Randy Johnson is too old to give away all those players mentioned in the first post. If I was another GM, I'd hold out big time when trading with the Sox because Kenny will overpay. Do you want to win a World Series? Too old? He wasn't too old last year to pitch 245 innings, have a 2.6 ERA and 290 k's. Give me a break Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santo=dorf Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 Do you want to win a World Series? I think some of these people would rather see Garland win 14 games just to say "I told you so!!!! He's only going to get better with age!!!!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santo=dorf Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 i went with 13 for my #'s witch is very possible for him. So why hasn't he done it yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSFAN35 Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 I think some of these people would rather see Garland win 14 games just to say "I told you so!!!! He's only going to get better with age!!!!" It seems like you me and AddisonST are the only one's supporting this trade. I don't understand that. Why wouldn't you want to have, not just a good pitcher, or even an all-star pitcher, but a shut down-Hall of Fame pitcher? Randy Johnson is the best pitcher in the major leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santo=dorf Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 It seems like you me and AddisonST are the only one's supporting this trade. I don't understand that. Why wouldn't you want to have, not just a good pitcher, or even an all-star pitcher, but a shut down-Hall of Fame pitcher? Randy Johnson is the best pitcher in the major leagues. I'm not supporting this particular trade, but I'm all for dumping hearltess, pants full of s***, Jon Garland for a future HOF left hander who is coming off of one of his best seasons. We could get to the playoffs with a rotation of Johnson, Buehrle, Garcia, Contreras, Grilli/Diaz/ yo momma. How do you think the Sox would do in a short series with that rotation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sircaffey Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 Im all for this trade under 2 circumstances: 1. We get a lefty to take Marte's spot (Chris Hammond I believe is still out there) 2. The other PTBL prospect is not (BMAC, Honel, Young or Anderson) Other than that, all for it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upnorthsox Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 garland is a 12-15 game winner so ill take 13 to be in the middle, johnson with no 5th start ill go with 18 wins garland+fa pitcher=25-30 wins(assuming 10 mill on sp) 13 mill johnson+warm body-marte= 20-22 wins=17 mill you do the math!!! Gar won 12 gms in '04 and 12 in '03, I'll split the dif and say 12 Clement won 9 in '04 and 11 in '03, I'll split the dif and say 10. Perez won 7 in '04 and 12 in '03, I'll split the dif and say 10. That's 22 wins. Johnson won 16 in '04 and 24 in '02, I'll split the dif and say 20 Estes(a warm body) won 15 in '04 and 8 in '03, I'll split the dif and 11 That's 31 wins. Gar's career high is 12 wins, Clement's is 14, Perez is 15, that's 27 wins tops. Johnson's career high is 24 wins, Estes is 19, that's 43 wins. Range for avg of last 2 full seasons to career high season totals: Gar and Clement or Perez: 22 to 27 wins. Johnson and Estes: 31 to 43 wins. Payroll costs for '05 estimated: Gar and Clement or Perez: $10-13 mil Johnson and Estes: $12 mil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
103 mph screwball Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 Don't forget the effects of having all the other pitchers move down a notch in the rotation and face lesser talent. That should mean more wins for MB, FG, and JC. Don't forget the confidence this will give the whole team. This could also help draw better free agents in the future. Say Clement is thinking about 7 million and he really wants to stay in Chicago. I think RJ is a big statement saying we are a REAL contender. I say get both and really create a huge BUZZ. Then let Brooks promote the hell out of it. (I don't think that has to be pink RJ will pay for himself and may have deferred money.) This is the kind of move that gets marginal fans curious about the commotion over RJ to the ballpark and turns them into lifelong fans. That's the effect the Carlton Fisk signing had on me. Somewhere there are 10 year olds that will beg their parents to take them to the game to see the Big Unit and will become Sox fans for life. Now that the starting outfielder is rumored to be out of the trade, I am all for this trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSFAN35 Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 Don't forget the effects of having all the other pitchers move down a notch in the rotation and face lesser talent. That should mean more wins for MB, FG, and JC. Don't forget the confidence this will give the whole team. This could also help draw better free agents in the future. Say Clement is thinking about 7 million and he really wants to stay in Chicago. I think RJ is a big statement saying we are a REAL contender. I say get both and really create a huge BUZZ. Then let Brooks promote the hell out of it. (I don't think that has to be pink RJ will pay for himself and may have deferred money.) This is the kind of move that gets marginal fans curious about the commotion over RJ to the ballpark and turns them into lifelong fans. That's the effect the Carlton Fisk signing had on me. Somewhere there are 10 year olds that will beg their parents to take them to the game to see the Big Unit and will become Sox fans for life. Now that the starting outfielder is rumored to be out of the trade, I am all for this trade. Your post brought tears to my eyes, Randy Johnson is salvation! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3E8 Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 The problem is that we're rumored to be out of talks with Arizona now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USAF_11F4H Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 The problem is that we're rumored to be out of talks with Arizona now. The Sox are now rumored to be out of ... the rumor for RJ? Tomorrow's rumor will be a rumor about the rumor that the original rumor is rumored to be slightly more than a rumor. Yeah, follow *that* s***! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvilJester99 Posted December 17, 2004 Share Posted December 17, 2004 ESPN just confirmed the deal is done....RJ to NYY, Vazquez to LA, and Green and another to Ari. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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