2004 Win Share report

[kapkomet]

[YASNY]

I love it. All these posts with all these stats has lead to this conclusion.

 

What this all really means is that if KW is done & Harris is the starting 2B

then it's a gut call as to whether he really improved the team.

 

Thank God for all those informative stats.

[JUGGERNAUT]

I forgot El Duque!

 

EL-D: 0R 3, 1R 4, 2R 3, 3R 3, 5R 3

JonG: 0R 0, 1R 6, 2R 6, 3R 3, 4R 9, 5R 3, 6R 5, 7R 1, 10R 1

MarB: 0R 4, 1R 3, 2R 8, 3R 6, 4R 4, 5R 3, 6R 2, 7R 2, 8R 2, 9R 1

 

Other RP:

STak: 0R 48, 1R 6, 2R 4, 3R 2

DMar: 0R 55. 1R 9, 2R 5, 3R 3

CPol: 0R 37, 1R 10, 2R 3, 3R 2, 4R 1 DNP Sep+

JAdk: 0R 31, 1R 9, 2R 6, 3R 2, 4R 2

NCot: 0R 30, 1R 14, 2R 8, 3R 1, 4R 3

[JUGGERNAUT]

Forecast time! Record 89-73

On avg, If an SP gives up 5R+ it's a loss. So let's add them up.

Garcia 5, Contre 11, El-Duque 6, Garland 10, Mark B 10 : Tot 42

On avg, If a closer/setup gives up 2R+ it's a loss.

STak 6, DMar 8 : Tot 14

On avg, if a MR gives up 3R+ it's a loss.

CPol 3, JAdk 4, NCott 4, Hrm 2, Luis 4 : Tot 17

Total: 73.

 

CWS 04 5.33R/gm. They'll need at least a 5R/gm avg to pull an 89-73 record.

[JUGGERNAUT]

For those who covet Vazquez pay attention:

JVaz: 04 0r 2, 1r 2, 3r 8, 4r 6, 5r 4, 6r 3, 7r 2, 8r 2

JVaz: 03 0r 7, 1r 3, 3r 7, 4r 1, 5r 7, 7r 1, 8r 1

JVaz: 02 0r 1, 1r 8, 2r 5, 3r 5, 4r 5, 5r 3, 6r 6, 7r 1

 

NY should have done it's hmwk better. 10 bad starts in 02, 9 bad starts in 03, 11 bad start in 04. That's pretty consistent. They seemed to ignore that while they were infatuated with his 9 dominant starts in 02, & his 10 dominant starts in 03. Well this looks like a classic case of a NL pitcher

who could no longer maintain his dominance vs tougher lineups.

 

I sure hope I get to see Kerry Wood in the AL some day so I can laugh my head off when he pitchers. Well more so than i do now

[DBAHO]

Kapkomet has a 3.7 win share of replying once again to this thread, with a 2.5 win share of using the same smilie, which is greater than WHarris1's of 1.7.

 

Gene Honda Civic gave up 10 posts today, which is less than the season average of Chisoxfn's regularity of a spelling or grammar mistake of 15.5, while the odds of Southsider2k5 spamming have increased from the following season of 29.5.

[santo=dorf]

 

[southsider2k5]

Kapkomet has a 3.7 win share of replying once again to this thread, with a 2.5 win share of using the same smilie, which is greater than WHarris1's of 1.7.

 

Gene Honda Civic gave up 10 posts today, which is less than the season average of Chisoxfn's regularity of a spelling or grammar mistake of 15.5, while the odds of Southsider2k5 spamming have increased from the following season of 29.5. 

 

Correction 29.5-1

[DBAHO]

Correction 29.5-1

Now using more stats there, explain to us fellow SoxTalk users how that will impact on ........ oh I dunno make something up and relate it to the Sox somehow.

[southsider2k5]

Now using more stats there, explain to us fellow SoxTalk users how that will impact on ........ oh I dunno make something up and relate it to the Sox somehow.

 

All I know, is I would love to see one of our resident math nerds do some chi-squared functions on half of these statistics to blow relevance out of the water.

[southsider17]

It's a lot easier than that.  Just compare your deletions & additions to your team avg's from 04.

The 04 Sox had a team era of 4.91, gave up (782er, 831r, 799rbi, 50uer) & put up (831r,823rbi). 

 

-Sox deletions: Maggs, Lee, & Val.    - Sox additions: Dye, Pods, AJP.

-Sox deletions: MJ, Grilli, Cotts, ELO  - Sox additions: ELD, JC, Herm, Vizc.

 

W/out question the team era is lower.  I'll do the numbers later.

 

 

I love the numbers game. I look forward to it.

[JUGGERNAUT]

It's a lot easier than that.  Just compare your deletions & additions to your team avg's from 04.

The 04 Sox had a team era of 4.91, gave up (782er, 831r, 799rbi, 50uer) & put up (865r,823rbi).

04 Sox: RPG: 5.339, RBIG: 5.080 83W-79L

04 Opp: RPG: 5.130, RBIG: 4.932

diff: 0.2099, 0.1481

 

-Sox deletions: Maggs, Lee, & Val.    - Sox additions: Dye, Pods, AJP.

-Maggs 93R, 108rbi (590 ab proj)  + Dye  96r, 88rbi (590 ab proj) : +3r, -20 rbi

-CLee 103R, 99rbi                      + Pods 85R, 39rbi : -18r, -60rbi

-JVal  73R,  70rbi                      + AJP 45R, 77rbi : -28r, +7rbi

Total: -43r, -73rbi  (822r,750rbi)

 

-Sox deletions: ELO, Schow, MJ, Cotts  - Sox additions: JC, ELD, Vizc, Herm

-ELO 124r, 112rbi + JC 114r. 99rbi : -10r, -13rbi

-Scho 74r, 67rbi + ELD 41r, 36rbi (proj out to 20 st) : -33r, -31rbi

-MJ 43r, 60rbi (out to 72ip) + Vizc 35r, 41rbi : -8r, -19rbi

-Cotts 90r, 80rbi (out to 131ip) + Herm 71r, 62rbi : -19r, -18rbi

Total: -69r, -71rbi (762r, 728rbi)                 

 

05 Sox: RPG: 5.074, RBIG: 4.630

05 Opp: RPG: 4.704, RBIG: 4.494

diff: 0.3704,  0.1358

 

76% gain in RPG diff, & an 8% drop in RBIG diff

I would say that's definitely an improvement over 2004.  Should be good for 4 more wins.  The team would fail expectations if it fell below 88W.

 

Notes: I am giving the opposition the benefit of the doubt.

- It is unlikely an 05 Maggs will perform like a full-season 04 Maggs

- Thomas late start 05 vs Thomas early end 04

- Projecting Cotts out to Herm.  I could have used Adkins.

- Comparing 20 El-D starts to 20 Schow starts.  El-D should have more than 20.

 

Biggest intangibles:

For every month Thomas comes back before Jul, this team should win an extra game.  Jun +1, May +2, Apr +3. 

For every 3 starts El-D has beyond 20 GS, this team should win an extra game.

 

The project 05 SOX win total is 87-93.  Good job KW.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Some might argue it's not fair to compare MJ & Cotts projected out to the

same IP as Vizc + Herm. But I disagree. MJ's projection incl's Koch + Munoz who were far worse than MJ. Cotts projection incls Wright, Rauch, Grili, Diaz who were all far worse than Cotts. I'm definitely given the edge to the opposition with these projections. If I used the individual players the gains for the SOX would be even greater. But I figure that will even out with an expected decline in Vizc & Herm.

 

I also want to point out I used Pods rbi totals from 04. Even if he hits 244 those should improve with the SOX. He's not in the NL any more. We have real 6-9 hitters in the AL. Realistically speaking that expected gain should make up the difference

in RBIG for the SOX. When you factor that in it should be expected that the SOX will increase both their RPG & RBIG differentials this year.

 

All things considered, I'm surprised at how much the pitching has improved even with forecast EL-D to only 20 starts.

[JUGGERNAUT]

Scary numbers: 92W-70L

04 MIN : RPG 4.815, RBIG 4.537

04 OPP: RPG 4.414, RBIG 4.204

04 diff : RPG 0.401, RBIG 0.333

 

-Guzman 84r, 46rbi; Koskie 68r, 71rbi

I would be shocked if they could maintain either or both of those diffs.

 

Surprising odd-ball numbers:

 

Close & Late 04 pitching

MIN 90r, 108gm .833r/gm

Sox 75r, 94gm .798r/gm

 

Scoring position 04:

Sox 608r, Opp 399r +209

Min 581r. Opp 391r +190

 

Inning 1-6 04:

Sox 605r, Opp 604r +1

Min 533r, Opp 475r +58

 

I believe KW has given us the adv here in 05.

 

Inning 7+ 04:

Min 247r, Opp 240r +7

Sox 260r, Opp 227r +33

 

Nathan, Rincon, & Romero might be the best trio in the AL. But the rest of their pen & the ineffectiveness of their starters to go long hurts them.

I believe KW has helped us stretch our adv here in 05.

 

But the numbers also explain why the Sox lost the division.

Min +57 +7/2 = 60 runs. Divide that by 9 & it's a little less than 7. With a team era of 4.09 those are wins.

Sox +1 +33/2 = 17 runs. Divide that by 9 & it's less than 2. With a team era of 4.91 those are losses.

 

I would be shocked if the Sox do not lead Min in these categories in 05. If El-D can pitch more than 20 starts & Thomas can stay healthy 4/5 mo we should win the division.

[JUGGERNAUT]

05 Total: -43r, -73rbi (822r,750rbi)

- Harris (68, 27) + Iguchi : (90, 82) : +22r, +55rbi

Iguchi:

https://www.japanesebaseball.com/players/pl...sp?PlayerID=970

05 Total: -21r, -18rbi (844r, 805rbi) Wow!

[Goldmember]

you must be the life of the party...

[Chisoxmatt]

 

Stats are good but hes starting to annoy me.

[JUGGERNAUT]

I'm trying to keep all the stat related posts in one thread. That why I can easily reference them & link to them. It's far better than having them floating all over the place never to be seen again.

 

I think the title of the thread makes it clear that this is a stat related thread.

Don't be hating.

[southsider17]

I love stats. Keep'em coming! But presentation is key.

[JUGGERNAUT]

I love stats.    Keep'em coming!  But presentation is key.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Ok, let me just sum it up clearly. With Kaitou now signed here's our remaining deficit in production: 21r, 18rbi.

 

When you consider our gains in pitching that's negligible. This is a far better team than

04 & it now challenges the 2000 & 2003 teams.

[southsider17]

I looked at the link for Iguchi but couldn't figure out where you got his runs and RBI #s. Are these averages? Projections based on some formula?

 

 

And who is Kaitou?

[JUGGERNAUT]

https://www.japanesebaseball.com/data/indexJBD.jsp

Versus Year PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB SH SF SO BB HBP GIDP CI AVG OBP SLG

Left 2002 129 114 31 5 0 5 51 1 2 23 10 2 2 \N 0.272 0.336 0.447

Left 2003 132 105 32 6 0 6 56 0 1 16 25 1 2 \N 0.305 0.439 0.533

Left 2004 127 116 33 7 0 3 49 0 2 24 9 0 2 \N 0.284 0.331 0.422

Right 2002 343 314 80 9 1 13 130 4 0 61 17 8 6 \N 0.255 0.31 0.414

Right 2003 485 410 143 31 1 21 239 1 5 65 56 13 8 \N 0.349 0.438 0.583

Right 2004 447 394 137 27 2 21 231 0 6 66 38 9 12 \N 0.348 0.412 0.586

 

They have his R+RBI stats at that link as well.

He's avg'd (90r, 82rbi) over the last 3 yrs.

 

Kaitou - is my nickname for Iguchi. Check out the nickname thread for the meaning.

[southsider17]

3-yr averages .... OK, now I understand.

 

ESPN also provides these, though, I'm guessing you already know this.

 

You may or may not already know of this site but Hardball Times is an online site that has excellent analysis and articles as well as there own custom stats:

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/

[JUGGERNAUT]

3-yr averages .... OK, now I understand.

 

ESPN also provides these, though, I'm guessing you already know this.

 

You may or may not already know of this site but Hardball Times is an online site that has excellent analysis and articles as well as there own custom stats:

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

The guy had outstanding numbers in 04. Only his SB's were down, but I'm reluctant to use those. But w/out question if he can hit the top 20 starters in the AL this guy is going to be huge!

[JUGGERNAUT]

Some more interesting numbers to contemplate for '05:

EL Pre-All Star 4.77era 8W 4L .283BAvs

vs

FG Pre-All Star 3.45 6W 8L .240BAvs

FG Pos-All Star 4.37 7W 3L .244BAvs

 

We don't talk enough about FG. His BAvs rose only .004 when moving from Safeco to the Cell. This is a major upgrade at #2.

 

JG Pre-All Star 4.41 7W 5L .255BAvs

JG Pos-All Star 5.44 5W 6L .284BAvs

vs

OH Pre-All Star 3.60 1W 0L .263BAvs

OH Pos-All Star 3.28 7W 2L .228BAvs

 

A 228 BAvs when the NY season was on the line. Major upgrade at #3.

 

SS Pre-All Star 4.71 5W 7L .276BAvs

SS Pos-All Star 9.95 1W 2L .357BAvs

 

vs

 

JC Pre-All Star 5.64 6W 3L .252BAvs

JC Pos-All Star 5.40 7W 6 .253BAvs

 

Again I look at that BAvs & see a substantial upgrade at #4.

 

NC Pre-All Star 5.64 1W 3 .241BAvs

NC Pos-All Star 5.66 3W 1 .252BAvs

 

vs

 

JG Pre-All Star 4.41 7W 5L .255BAvs

JG Pos-All Star 5.44 5W 6L .284BAvs

 

I'm picking Cotts because he has the best numbers of all the 04 5th starters. His BAvs makes me believe that if OH was to go on the DL Cotts

would become the 5th starter. Garland is a major improvement over the rest of the gang.

 

In short, KW has substantially improved every spot in the rotation. Mark should benefit as well following the two G's. All 3 of them feature different stuff, different deliveries, & different location.

 

An analyst not picking the Sox is a a fool. There is w/out a doubt a 70-75 win potential in that rotation. The best in the ALC. That means every other teams bullpen & lineup must be stronger than the Sox' to make up that difference. The Twins feature one of the best pens in the game so you can never count them out. But it's rare for a team to maintain that kind of pen dominance yr after yr.

[JUGGERNAUT]

04 break down of games:

04 1ST HALF:

RPG 9+: 18W, 2L

RPG 8 : 2W, 1L

RPG 7 : 3W, 2L

RPG 6 : 7W, 1L

RPG 5 : 2W, 1L

RPG 4 : 9W, 7L

RPG 3 : 3W, 1L

RPG 2 : 1W, 9L

RPG 1 : 0W, 10L

RPG 0 : 0W, 4L

 

RPG < 4: 4W, 24L

RPG 4-5: 11W, 8L

RPG 6-7: 10W, 3L

 

04 2ND HALF:

RPG 9+: 12W, 2L

RPG 8 : 3W, 1L

RPG 7 : 6W, 1L

RPG 6 : 4W, 1L

RPG 5 : 8W, 3L

RPG 4 : 1W, 7L

RPG 3 : 3W, 5L

RPG 2 : 13L

RPG 1 : 4L

RPG 0 : 4L

 

RPG < 4: 3W, 26L

RPG 4-5: 9W, 10L

RPG 6-7: 10W, 2L

 

Most telling statistic of the 04 team:

RPG < 8: 25W, 35L

RPG < 8: 22W, 38L

 

If you can not play 500 ball in the games where you score < 8 runs

you are not a good a baseball team. That clearly dictated the need

to improve the rotation, the pen, & the overall speed & quickness of this team. KW did the best job he could.