January 13, 200521 yr An interesting article here from the Hardball Times that I thought was worth sharing; Some teams have great starters, some have great bullpens. Some have both, some have neither. Which is my way of introducing this graph of the 2004 ERA for each team's starters and relievers: Overall, starters had a 4.65 ERA vs. a 4.19 ERA for relievers. I present this for informational purposes only -- not to imply that relievers are better than starters. Consistently pitching 150 to 200 innings well is harder than consistently pitching 50 to 100 innings well. Really, the point of the graph is to stress the relative contribution each team got from its starters vs. its relievers. Over at Baseball Prospectus, they keep track of something called Win Expectancy Added for every major league reliever, which I assume is based on the same principle as Win Probability (covered in a previous article). Win Probability/Expectancy Added is a great way to evaluate relievers, because it measures their impact on the game (which is what relievers are really paid to do) by looking at how well they pitch AND how critical their appearances are during the game. But Baseball Prospectus doesn't add up their Reliever's Win Expectancy Added by team, so I decided to take a crack at it. American League National League Team WPA Team WPA ----- ---- ----- ---- ANA 6.09 LAD 6.86 NYY 4.09 STL 5.81 MIN 3.88 PHI 5.59 BOS 3.59 ATL 4.05 TEX 3.53 SDP 2.79 BAL 2.58 HOU 2.44 TBD 0.33 CHC 1.53 OAK -1.97 NYM -0.21 CLE -3.09 MIL -0.98 SEA -4.38 MON -1.89 CHW -4.49 FLO -1.92 DET -4.70 PIT -2.08 TOR -7.34 CIN -3.10 KC -9.09 ARI -5.80 SFG -6.80 COL -8.98 Win Probability is a great stat but, like Win Shares, it's not necessarily an indication of "true talent," and it's not necessarily a predictable stat. So let's finish by presenting each team's bullpen FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), a far more predictable stat, to take a peek at how these bullpens might perform next year. American League National League Team FIP Team FIP ----- ---- ----- ---- ANA 3.44 STL 3.62 MIN 3.75 LAD 3.68 TEX 3.94 NYM 3.98 NYY 4.04 PIT 4.03 BOS 4.12 ATL 4.09 BAL 4.14 HOU 4.18 TBD 4.36 SDP 4.19 OAK 4.43 PHI 4.19 KC 4.49 CHC 4.22 CLE 4.55 MIL 4.37 SEA 4.66 FLO 4.48 TOR 4.67 MON 4.52 CHW 4.71 SFG 4.74 DET 4.92 ARI 4.93 COL 4.99 CIN 5.20
January 13, 200521 yr Yeah, the note at the bottom of the full article indicates the averages he used would hurt the estimated FIP of teams that play in hitters parks. I believe that puts us closer to average.
January 13, 200521 yr QUOTE(Kalapse @ Jan 13, 2005 -> 11:43 AM) To many stats, brain overload. So we're like average. what poor son of a b**** worked those stats out :headshake i'm all for being average...but to jump the next hurdle and win the central the Sox need to be in the above average section along with all the other "playoff" teams
January 13, 200521 yr this is a very good example of people needing to get out more. I mean, go outside, go out one night, have fun!!!
January 13, 200521 yr And you think I spend too much time working on that stuff. Anyways, 35-36 Garcia starts should considerably lower the starter's era. Assuming 11 RP for most of the year, the absence of Cotts & Jackson should lower the pen's era. I expect the 2005 CWS to be directly below the Yankees. About 4.40 in the pen & about 4.60 in the rotation. If I'm reading your FIP right that would place the CWS close to the NYY.
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