Batting 3rd

[JUGGERNAUT]

3 yr Timo: 68AB PH vs 669AB RON,ISP. It's not an accurate measure to use his PH #'s.

 

As a LH bat he can hit RHers.

3 yr: vs L: 136AB, .154A .201O .191S vs R: 947AB, 290A, 324O, 415S

[SuperSteve]

I don't know if this has been posted yet, I am sure it was mentioned awhile ago...but January 16th per Rotoworld:

 

Guillen also indicated he'd use a lineup of: LF Scott Podsednik, SS Juan Uribe, RF Jermaine Dye, 1B Paul Konerko, DH Carl Everett, CF Aaron Rowand, C A.J. Pierzynski, 3B Joe Crede and 2B Willie Harris. If Frank Thomas is healthy, he'd likely bat third and Dye would be dropped to the fifth spot.

 

Rotoworld White Sox Clubhouse

[JUGGERNAUT]

QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Feb 10, 2005 -> 12:00 AM)

There's at least a 27.7% chance of a score when one of Pods, Aaron, or Dye/Thomas 2B.

There's at least a 27.2% chance of a score when one of Everett/Dye, Uribe, or Iggy 2B.

*

 

you'd be better off using OPS, even though that's misguided also.... applying BA across multiple players doesn't take into account HR's (Bonds looks the same as Ichiro) or walks, or Sac flies.  All of which are included in OPS.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Again you can't score from 2B without a hit or a major error. BA is the best indicator for how likely a player with get a hit with 1 swing of the bat.

[Gene Honda Civic]

QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Feb 10, 2005 -> 12:00 AM)

There's at least a 27.7% chance of a score when one of Pods, Aaron, or Dye/Thomas 2B.

There's at least a 27.2% chance of a score when one of Everett/Dye, Uribe, or Iggy 2B.

*

Again you can't score from 2B without a hit or a major error.  BA is the best indicator for how likely a player with get a hit with 1 swing of the bat.

OK, I replied the first time becuase I was amazed at your accuracy. Narrowing down the chance of scoring to tenths of a percentage point is impressive, even if it is bulls***.

 

I directed you to OPS as a better indicator of runs scored, even though I warned this was misguided also. The correlation between OPS and runs scored is about .85, but the correlation between BA and runs scored is much lower, about .7(I'm to lazy to go look it up, but that's about what I remember it being)

 

My point was you can't take three player's batting average, add/subtract/multiply/divide/whatever and accurately predict how many runs they will produce. There's too many other factors, in fact OBP is a better indicator of Runs Scored than BA.

 

If you'd like to learn how to accurately predict run production, I can direct you to a few links, but you gotta stop masquerading like you know what you're doing.

 

Start here -- http://www.tangotiger.net/#Baseruns -- read the 3 parter on Base Runs, and the addendum if you're feeling abitious. Then read the OPS Begone articles, and anything else on that site that tickles your fancy.

 

If you have questions, I'll try to help, but I'm nowhere near as smart as those guys.

 

Baseball Prospectus also has a good "intro to sabr" series -- http://baseballprospectus.com/about/ --

[JUGGERNAUT]

OK, I replied the first time becuase I was amazed at your accuracy. Narrowing down the chance of scoring to tenths of a percentage point is impressive, even if it is bulls***.

 

Start here -- http://www.tangotiger.net/#Baseruns --

 

Baseball Prospectus also has a good "intro to sabr" series -- http://baseballprospectus.com/about/ --

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

You need to learn how to read better. No where in my discussion of doubles & the lineup do I ever make any claim to OVERALL run predictions from these players.

I am talking SITUATIONAL run prediction! That situation is very simply Koney at the plate with a man on 2B & AJP at the plate with a man on 2B. Nothing more than that!

 

Now if you think using a players OBP is a better than using an average of the 2B production you're a fool. Likewise if you believe using a player's OBP is better than BA for determining the probability of a runner scoring from 2B on one hit you are a bigger fool.

[Gene Honda Civic]

OK, I replied the first time becuase I was amazed at your accuracy. Narrowing down the chance of scoring to tenths of a percentage point is impressive, even if it is bulls***. 

 

Start here -- http://www.tangotiger.net/#Baseruns --

 

Baseball Prospectus also has a good "intro to sabr" series -- http://baseballprospectus.com/about/ --

 

You need to learn how to read better. No where in my discussion of doubles & the lineup do I ever make any claim to OVERALL run predictions from these players.

I am talking SITUATIONAL run prediction! That situation is very simply Koney at the plate with a man on 2B & AJP at the plate with a man on 2B. Nothing more than that!

 

Now if you think using a players OBP is a better than using an average of the 2B production you're a fool. Likewise if you believe using a player's OBP is better than BA for determining the probability of a runner scoring from 2B on one hit you are a bigger fool.

Ok, My mistake. Next time we have Kong at the plate and one of three players on second, I know I'll sleep better at night knowing we'll score at least 27.2% of the time.

[Soxbadger]

Am I the only one who would like to see Gload in the starting line up?

 

I know we are paying Everett, but if Gload tears it up in ST and Everett is just so-so, can we really not start Gload?

 

SB

[SuperSteve]

Am I the only one who would like to see Gload in the starting line up?

 

I know we are paying Everett, but if Gload tears it up in ST and Everett is just so-so, can we really not start Gload?

 

SB

No and I doubt Ozzie would, but just on expectations and what has been said about Carl getting back into shape, ya have to expect him to be swinging well.

[Soxbadger]

Gload: 110 234 28 75 16 0 7 112 44 20 37 0 3 .321 .375 .479 .853

 

Everett Career:

 

Has hit over .321 1 time, 1999.

 

Has had OBP over .375 2 times, 2003, 1999

 

Has had OPS over .853 3 times, 1999, 2000, 2003

 

Gload played his first season in the Majors, Carl is 33.

 

Outside of Slg, which Carl has a considerable edge on Gload, there just really is no reason to expect that Carl even at his best season will necessarily outproduce Gload.

 

SB

[AnthraxFan93]

Gload: 110 234 28 75 16 0 7 112 44 20 37 0 3 .321 .375 .479 .853

 

Everett Career:

 

Has hit over .321 1 time, 1999.

 

Has had OBP over .375 2 times, 2003, 1999

 

Has had OPS over .853 3 times, 1999, 2000, 2003

 

Gload played his first season in the Majors, Carl is 33.

 

Outside of Slg, which Carl has a considerable edge on Gload, there just really is no reason to expect that Carl even at his best season will necessarily outproduce Gload.

 

SB

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

SO you mean that KW, should have never traded for Carla, and have a $4 million bench player on a small market team

 

Brillant! What else you working on?

[WSFAN35]

Gload: 110 234 28 75 16 0 7 112 44 20 37 0 3 .321 .375 .479 .853

 

Everett Career:

 

Has hit over .321 1 time, 1999.

 

Has had OBP over .375 2 times, 2003, 1999

 

Has had OPS over .853 3 times, 1999, 2000, 2003

 

Gload played his first season in the Majors, Carl is 33.

 

Outside of Slg, which Carl has a considerable edge on Gload, there just really is no reason to expect that Carl even at his best season will necessarily outproduce Gload.

 

SB

 

Gload has alot smaller surface from which to draw from. He simply hasn't had the at-bats that Carl has, so there's no way you can compare those numbers. Carl is a better hitter than Gload IMO.

[SuperSteve]

Gload has alot smaller surface from which to draw from.  He simply hasn't had the at-bats that Carl has, so there's no way you can compare those numbers.  Carl is a better hitter than Gload IMO.

I agree. You can skew numbers how ever you want (see what I just did comparing Santana and Halladay :rolly ). Gload has so many less atbats, and has bounced around teams like Everett has, but as a minor league FA. I'd like him to repeat last year before we name him equal to a former AS.

[Soxbadger]

Skew numbers?

 

I presented the facts as they are.

 

Gload in 1 season, pretty much did better than almost every season of Everett's career.

 

You can skew it however you want to, but the fact is, if you do not give Gload a chance, its purely $$, not performance. Because Gload considerably outperformed Everett last season.

 

SB

[SuperSteve]

Skew numbers?

 

I presented the facts as they are.

 

Gload in 1 season, pretty much did better than almost every season of Everett's career.

 

You can skew it however you want to, but the fact is, if you do not give Gload a chance, its purely $$, not performance. Because Gload considerably outperformed Everett last season.

 

SB

4000 AB to 300 AB...Everett's best season: 464 AB, .325 avg, 25 HR, 108 RBI, .398 OBP, .571 SLG, 86 R, 50 BB, 27/34 SB...so you're saying that will never touch Gload. Do you need more numbers? Or are you done?

[qwerty]

Gload has alot smaller surface from which to draw from.  He simply hasn't had the at-bats that Carl has, so there's no way you can compare those numbers.  Carl is a better hitter than Gload IMO.

 

No one really knows who is the better hitter since gload has been blocked from coming up nearly his entire minor league career. Last year was a kinda small sample size but i know i wouldn't be suprised to see him hit in the .280-.300 range over an entire hitter. He has proven he can hit every where he has been in the minors unlike our lead-off hitter.

[SuperSteve]

No one really knows who is the better hitter since gload has been blocked from coming up nearly his entire minor league career. Last year was a kinda small sample size but i know i wouldn't be suprised to see him hit in the .280-.300 range over an entire hitter. He has proven he can hit every where he has been in the minors unlike our lead-off hitter.

I'm not sold yet, but we may need a new 1B next year, so he can prove it again this year. I think he may not be best suited to play everyday.

[JUGGERNAUT]

You need to learn how to read better. No where in my discussion of doubles & the lineup do I ever make any claim to OVERALL run predictions from these players.

I am talking SITUATIONAL run prediction! That situation is very simply Koney at the plate with a man on 2B & AJP at the plate with a man on 2B. Nothing more than that!

 

Now if you think using a players OBP is a better than using an average of the 2B production you're a fool. Likewise if you believe using a player's OBP is better than BA for determining the probability of a runner scoring from 2B on one hit you are a bigger fool.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ok, My mistake. Next time we have Kong at the plate and one of three players on second, I know I'll sleep better at night knowing we'll score at least 27.2% of the time.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

27.7% for Koney, 27.2% for AJP

 

The generalized point is that instead of fixating on HR's we should likewise look at 2B's & 3B's production. Glancing over yearly numbers that production figures to the be the highest on the team in the last 4 yrs. With AJP & Koney being the weakest in that production in the lineup it's a plus for the Sox that they both hit for high averages.

 

2000 325 D, 33 T

2001 300 D, 29 T

2002 289 D, 29 T

2003 303 D, 19 T

2004 284 D, 19 T

 

- / + :

-Lee 37 D

-Val 20 D, 3T

-Mag 8 D, 2T (24 D, 5T)

81 D, 8 T

+Dye 29 D, 4T

+Pods 29 D, 8T

+Iggy 34 D, 2T

92 D, 14 T

 

Pods should lead the team in combined D+T. That's why it's important to put your highest BA bat behind him. The best combination of BA + OBP with good speed is

Rowand & not Uribe. That result is the same whether you compare their 04 or their career #'s.

[Soxbadger]

Gload:110 234 28 75 16 0 7 112 44 20 37 0 3 .321 .375 .479 .853

 

Carl: 123 464 86 151 33 3 25 108 50 94 27 7 .325 .398 .571 .969

 

The year was 1999 (notice that is 5 seasons ago) Carl Everett in his 5th season in Majors was able to beat Gload's rookie year statistics.

 

Lets look at Carl's first full season

 

79 289 48 75 13 1 12 54 39 67 2 5 .260 .352 .436 .788

 

Comparable number of AB's, lets take a closer look.

 

Gload BA > Carl's BA

 

Gload OBP > Carl OBP

 

Gload OPS > Carl OPS

 

Gload SLG > Carl SLG

 

Gload Hits = Carl's Hits

 

Gload 2bs > Carl's 2bs

 

Carl HR > Gload HR

 

I do not count runs or RBI's, because those are a product of the situation.

 

So your expecting Gload to decline eventhough it was his first season, and generally players improve as they play longer in the MLB (evidenced by Carl.) But at the same time you expect Carl to improve eventhough since 2000, he has only put up 1 respectable season.

 

But the fact that one time Carl was an all star makes up for this fact, because that all star appearance is going to make pitchers throw the ball right down the middle and the ball travel farther?

 

Since when does better shape definitely translate into, better performance.

 

I expect Gload to outplay Everett. If Everett outplays Gload, it will be great, but I just see no reason to expect that.

 

SB

[JUGGERNAUT]

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Dude your claim that Gload outperformed Everett in 04 is valid. Your claim that Gload will outperform Everett at DH as an everday player is not. Gload simply has played that role on an everyday basis to make that claim. Just about every hitter in the game will tell you it's harder to hit as a DH than play a position because you lose focus on the bench most of the time. That's why Thomas' 1B numbers are much better than his DH numbers.

 

Gload will get AB' substituting for Koney at 1B, Pods in LF, & maybe Dye in RF.

He'll probably play RF on those days Dye needs a rest & we're facing a LH. Everett will have a chance to prove himself in the 1st half as to whether he should bump Gload down to 3rd in RF substitution. I really envision Timo in a pinch runner/hitter defensive replacement type role. Rarely ever getting a start.

 

A similar type argument revolves around Burke. Though I really can't see why Davis

is #2 over Burke on the depth chart. I think that was just a waste of $1M myself.

[Soxbadger]

Juggs,

 

If Gload was to start, I would think it would be Konerko moving to DH, and Gload playing 1b where he is a significant upgrade.

 

Of course Konerko would have to agree.

 

And your premise is some what faulty, while it is harder for a DH than an everday player, Gloads statistics were put up not as an every day player, but as a player who was bounced around from game to game, from position to position.

 

Playing DH would be significantly more stable than what Gload was put through last year.

 

Also, most of Everett's best numbers, the ones that are being used are when Everett was in the NL, not playing DH.

 

Everett's DH numbers for the most part have been pretty unspectacular.

 

SB

[JUGGERNAUT]

Juggs,

Of course Konerko would have to agree.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I doubt very much that Koney would agree to that move in his run for FA year.

3yr avgs as DH:

Everett 239AB 276A 340O 448S

Gload 32AB 250A 314O 406S

[Soxbadger]

Jugg,

 

Depends on Konerko, maybe he wants to be seen as a team player willing to do whatever it takes to win. Its not like people will all of a sudden think because he palyed DH for a year that he can not play 1b anymore.

 

Also, the entire question was premised on:

 

If Everett is doing so-so, and Gload is tearing it up in spring training.

 

I just believe that Gload should be given an opportunity to win a starting position. I think that his play last year earned him that right. And I guess it just puzzles me why people are so willing to give the position to Carl, when he really did nothing except excersise an option on a contract we did not even bargain for.

 

I hope Everett comes out in All-Star form, and we are left to figuring out ways to get Gload into the line up. I just have to be reasonable in my expectations and realize that generally players who are older and have had injury problems dont just wake up the next season and put together career numbers.

 

Sb

[JUGGERNAUT]

Jugg,

 

Depends on Konerko, maybe he wants to be seen as a team player willing to do whatever it takes to win.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Well we would be remiss if we didn't look at Koney's DH #'s as well.

3yr avg DH Koney: 125AB, 232A 324O 344S

 

It's a lot harder than it looks. Everett is not as bad a DH as you think.

[Soxbadger]

Your reliance on 3 years does not show the true trend:

 

Last year:

 

Konerko: 55 ab's .291 .403 .491 .894

 

Everett: 161 ab's .267 .320 .416 .736

 

2003:

 

Everett: 14 ab's .429 .529. .500 .1029

 

Konerko: 39 ab's .128 .222 .128 .350

 

 

2002:

 

Everett: 64 ab's .266 .342 .516 .858

 

Konerko: 31 ab's .258 .303 .355 .658

 

2003 was Konerko's terrible year. Since he has less than 150 ab's at DH in the 3 year span, the fact that 25% of them came in 03 completely destroy his stats. I mean BA of .128 is just dreadful. Comparitively, Everett had a monster 2003 but only 14 ab's.

 

More than likely Everett will hit in the .260-.270 range at DH, Konerko showed last year that he was able to eclipse that mark.

 

I am not saying Everett is a bad DH, or a bad player. I just am saying that the White Sox should not be so foolish to not give Gload a chance.

 

Maybe Everett will outperform Gload, my only point is that if Gload is on fire, why should Everett be handed the job?

 

SB

[JUGGERNAUT]

Your reliance on 3 years does not show the true trend:

 

2004:

Konerko: 55 ab's .291 .403 .491 .894

Everett: 161 ab's .267 .320 .416 .736

 

2003:

Everett: 14 ab's .429 .529. .500 .1029

Konerko: 39 ab's .128 .222 .128 .350

 

2002:

Everett: 64 ab's .266 .342 .516 .858

Konerko: 31 ab's .258 .303 .355 .658

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

If you're going to negate Koney's worst yr then you should do the same for Everett.

That leaves you with Koney (04, 02) vs Everett (03,02). Everett still wins that debate.

 

You have to go with proven success at DH. All of the numbers point to Everett putting up better numbers in that role than both Koney & Gload. Remember Everett was not 100% in 04. He should be in 05.

Edited February 10, 2005 by JUGGERNAUT