November 28, 200520 yr http://www.rotoauthority.com/2005/11/fantasy_basebal_5.html It would be great if he puts up those numbers.
November 28, 200520 yr I think he will steal more than 4 bases, but I like those projections, and IMO they are realistic if he gets a real chance to play everyday.
November 28, 200520 yr Anderson's ZiPS Projection Here is a different set of projections which Anderson is included in. These are less optimistic than the ones posted above. I see him doing slightly worse than the ZiPS.
November 28, 200520 yr Author Anderson's ZiPS Projection Here is a different set of projections which Anderson is included in. These are less optimistic than the ones posted above. I see him doing slightly worse than the ZiPS. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Those ZiPS numbers still aren't half bad. They're basically Rowand's numbers at a fraction of the cost. By the way, look at Gload's ZiPS projections. Those are insane! Edited November 28, 200520 yr by SSH2005
November 28, 200520 yr QUOTE(SSH2005 @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 10:38 AM) Those ZiPS numbers still aren't half bad. They're basically Rowand's numbers at a fraction of the cost. By the way, look at Gload's ZiPS projections. Those are insane! Haha, Gload likes to dominate projections as well as simulation leagues. More interesting are Young's projections....
November 28, 200520 yr QUOTE(3E8 @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 09:15 AM) Anderson's ZiPS Projection Here is a different set of projections which Anderson is included in. These are less optimistic than the ones posted above. I see him doing slightly worse than the ZiPS. Some of those are silly. Daigle couldn't produce anything close to those numbers at AAA and those are his MLB projections after playing mostly in A-ball? LOL!
November 28, 200520 yr Author Some of those are silly. Daigle couldn't produce anything close to those numbers at AAA and those are his MLB projections after playing mostly in A-ball? LOL! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I just looked at them again and saw that. There goes any credibility that ZiPS had on projections, if they ever had any to begin with.
November 28, 200520 yr It's pretty asanine to try to predict what a minor-league player's numbers will look like in their first full season. I try to stay away from these things, but I will be extremely surprised if he hits .273.
November 28, 200520 yr Just judging on the past history of Sox call ups with solid minor league numbers and long swings, I think the power numbers might fit, but the average will be in the .230-.240 range. I think Anderson has some growing to do, and it will reflect in his numbers.
November 28, 200520 yr I just watched the media of Anderson's two homeruns off King Felix this morning and it made me feel awfully good. Check it out. Click on Anderson's page on Whitesox.com and give it a watch. I see no reason why he couldn't hit 12-15+ homeruns in a full season's production.
November 28, 200520 yr QUOTE(AddisonStSox @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 12:16 PM) I just watched the media of Anderson's two homeruns off King Felix this morning and it made me feel awfully good. Check it out. Click on Anderson's page on Whitesox.com and give it a watch. I see no reason why he couldn't hit 12-15+ homeruns in a full season's production. He'll hit 15 plus homers imo, I am worried a little bit about how well he'll hit average wise though. I think he'll be in the .250 range.
November 28, 200520 yr QUOTE(3E8 @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 09:15 AM) Anderson's ZiPS Projection Here is a different set of projections which Anderson is included in. These are less optimistic than the ones posted above. I see him doing slightly worse than the ZiPS. Not so sure I'd put much stock into those, or any projected numbers for that matter. They don't seem to give much credence into guys discovering themself and getting better as the season goes on. It's really hard to imagine Contreras putting up a 4+ ERA after how he looked in the second half of last year, and for the Sox, who had the best pitching staff in the league last year, to suddenly not have a single pitcher projected to put up an ERA below the team ERA last year is a bit obsurd. Not sure it's even feasible to have every pitcher regress in one offseason. The offensive splits seem fair for the most part(though a lot of them can be argued, for better or worse), but those pitching projections are horrible. From what I recall, BTF uses stats...a lot...and the Sox are a team statisicians seem to love to hate at this point. Rob Neyer was hating on the Sox huge after they got off to their hot start simply because they weren't putting up "Moneyball" stats.
November 28, 200520 yr QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 03:00 PM) http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/swishni01.shtml Nick Swisher has had a comparable path to the majors as Brian Anderson, true. Yet, Swisher hit .230 in his half-season in AA and then followed it up with a .269 BA in AAA the next year. He was a .261 career minor league hitter and follwed all that up by hitting .236 in his first full year in the majors. Anderson hit .270 in his injury-plagued partial-season in AA, followed it up by hitting .295 in AAA with a career .301 minor league average, and we'll see what he's able to do in the majors next year. Based on average differentials in the performance paths of Anderson and Swisher, it's more than fair to project a .270 season from Anderson.
November 28, 200520 yr QUOTE(Randar68 @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 05:43 PM) Nick Swisher has had a comparable path to the majors as Brian Anderson, true. Yet, Swisher hit .230 in his half-season in AA and then followed it up with a .269 BA in AAA the next year. He was a .261 career minor league hitter and follwed all that up by hitting .236 in his first full year in the majors. Anderson hit .270 in his injury-plagued partial-season in AA, followed it up by hitting .295 in AAA with a career .301 minor league average, and we'll see what he's able to do in the majors next year. Based on average differentials in the performance paths of Anderson and Swisher, it's more than fair to project a .270 season from Anderson. Agreed, but I don't see Anderson walking as much as Swisher... I see their OPS production to be strikingly similar.
November 29, 200520 yr QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Nov 28, 2005 -> 05:46 PM) Agreed, but I don't see Anderson walking as much as Swisher... I see their OPS production to be strikingly similar. Well, there are 2 things in this debate that I know for near certainty: 1) If a player can't make consistent contact in the minors, he's screwed in the majors 2) If a player doesn't take walks in the minors, he won't in the majors It's a fair comparison on OPS, I suppose, but out of my bottom of the order hitters, I want them turning the order over, providing occassional power, but basically putting the ball in play, which is why I have no problem if Anderson hits .265-15-70 batting 8th or 9th. Edited November 29, 200520 yr by Randar68
November 29, 200520 yr Author Well, there are 2 things in this debate that I know for near certainty: 1) If a player can't make consistent contact in the minors, he's screwed in the majors 2) If a player doesn't take walks in the minors, he won't in the majors It's a fair comparison on OPS, I suppose, but out of my bottom of the order hitters, I want them turning the order over, providing occassional power, but basically putting the ball in play, which is why I have no problem if Anderson hits .265-15-70 batting 8th or 9th. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I doubt anyone would have a problem with that. That would be as good, if not better than Crede and Uribe.
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