When you win 99 out of 162 games during that long of a season, eventually it's more than luck.

 

We got lucky when catchers interference wasn't called on AJ in Game 3 against the Angels.  We got unlucky when that ball was bounced off the wall in game 3 against the Astros and was ruled a home run when it should have been a double.

 

We got lucky when Mark Buehrle's foot popped and it turned out to not be seriuos.  We got unlucky when we got a monster DH back, and he wound up back on the DL.  We got lucky when this 17th round draft pick suddenly discovered that no one could hit him.  We got unlucky when he stopped throwing his changeup.  Etc.

 

That team was a very well built team.  Yes, it had some luck.  But it had both good and bad luck.  And most of the good luck was either made by the team or implied by the plan the team was built around (i.e. we were lucky people stayed healthy, but on the other hand we had 3 starting pitchers well under 30 and a total of 6 starters ready to go, we had 2 backup closers, we had a young team overall which helped them stay healthy longer, etc.)

 

Yeah, luck is overrated. Was Graffanino's or Biggio's errors luck or were they bad plays by the other team? The Sox beat the teams they were supposed to beat last year. There might have been better teams in terms of lineup, but no team put it all together like the Sox did. Great pitching and defense, combined with timely hitting and great managing. The Sox were the most complete team in baseball last year. That is how they won 110 games. Not by luck.

 

Teams are going to dread playing the Sox. Who wants to play a team with basically 4-5 #1 starters. It is not like you get an easy matchup with the 4th or 5th starter. That is demoralizing.

 

Also, the Sox can now easily rest their positional players and have little drop off with Mackowiak as the super sub. That is a huge luxury. I can see him doing that often, and I am sure he will get a lot of pinch hits as well.

 

I know it is better to be conservative because the Sox have never been World Champions before, but just by looking at the regular season from last year, you have to admit that the team is better now, and all the remaining players from 2005 now have post season experience. How could that add up to less wins? I know about injury possibilities and slumps, etc, but isn't every team susceptible to that as well? Do they all get docked 5-10 wins because of possibilities? If that is the case, who is getting all those wins, the Montreal Expos?

MarBue will win the CyYou this year and with BraMcC as a 6th starter to fill in, we are going to win another 95+ games.

Did anyone actually read the posts, or did they just vote like me?

 

 

I voted and read some of the posts! They were interesting.

Well, the team got very lucky last year, and its unlikely that they will be as lucky next year.

Lucky because we won close games with a fantastic bullpen?

Does anyone else think Juggs has Autism? Here are the symptoms in children....Juggs, were you like this?

 

Appears indifferent to surroundings

Appears content to be alone, happier to play alone

Displays lack of interest in toys

Displays lack of response to others

Does not point out objects of interest to others (called protodeclarative pointing)

Marked reduction or increase in activity level

Resists cuddling

 

I'm just f***ing with you of course. I went with over 100 wins.

Edited January 6, 200620 yr by tonyho7476

As a stat fan, I applaud the work you have done Juggernaut.

 

And I totally agree with some of your conclusions (though I have been ripped elsewhere for posting them).

 

"They have tasted victory by having the best rotation in baseball."

"They will sacrifice lumber before they will sacrifice pitching."

 

I certainly hope this is true, which is why I kept posting against the view that KW should dump Jon Garland or Jose Contreras in any number of trades. Give me Contreras, especially, as a postseason horse, and I think the Sox match up fine with the Yankees.

 

I also find your analysis regarding Juan Uribe very interesting. Hitting him #2, if he can learn to focus like he did in September and the postseason (where he was very patient and drew walks), could allow him to blossom into a tremendous hitter (and make Sox fans we glad we didn't pull off the rumored Tejada trade). Presumably he'll get more fastballs in the zone in this slot too, and he should crush those.

 

As far as the lineup goes, I personally would prefer Ozzie to hit Thome 5th rather than 3rd, with Dye moving up to the 3 hole. I believe Dye was a more patient hitter when put in the 3rd slot at the end of the season and postseason, and you can't argue with the results. Dye was WS MVP, and the Sox scored 14, 5, 4, 2, 2, 5, 8, 6, 4, 7, 7, and 1 runs, winning 11 out of 12 games. With all the righties, it is also beneficial to have a lefty hitting in the middle of the lineup. I also think Joe Crede, if he continues where he left off after his disabled-list stint last year, could hit 6th. With Thome and Konerko on base so much but being slow, hitting Crede 6th takes maximum advantage of Crede's power. Iguchi's hit-and-run skills would be wasted here. That would slide Iguchi to 8th, perhaps an unreasonable "demotion," but with his speed, it would also allow the 8, 9, and 1 guys to try to manufacture runs.

 

Lastly, I don't think KW will put McCarthy in AAA again unless he loses himself in spring training. He's on record as saying McCarthy should develop in the bullpen against major league hitters so I don't think that'll change. We also need the quality arm out there (and a long guy now that Javier Vazquez and his 11 poor outings are in the rotation). Then we only have to fill one slot from among minor league hopefuls Bajenaru, Tracey, et al. (It's also still possible KW will sign someone and carry 12 pitchers.)

 

Again, great work Juggernaut.

As far as the lineup goes, I personally would prefer Ozzie to hit Thome 5th rather than 3rd, with Dye moving up to the 3 hole.  I believe Dye was a more patient hitter when put in the 3rd slot at the end of the season and postseason, and you can't argue with the results.  Dye was WS MVP, and the Sox scored 14, 5, 4, 2, 2, 5, 8, 6, 4, 7, 7, and 1 runs, winning 11 out of 12 games.  With all the righties, it is also beneficial to have a lefty hitting in the middle of the lineup.  I also think Joe Crede, if he continues where he left off after his disabled-list stint last year, could hit 6th.  With Thome and Konerko on base so much but being slow, hitting Crede 6th takes maximum advantage of Crede's power.  Iguchi's hit-and-run skills would be wasted here.  That would slide Iguchi to 8th, perhaps an unreasonable "demotion," but with his speed, it would also allow the 8, 9, and 1 guys to try to manufacture runs.

I am curious to see how the batting order will play out. It seems like the only slots that are pretty much locks are #1 and #4. There is a pretty big difference between the #3 and #5 slots, so that will be interesting to see how it plays out. It would almost seem better to sandwich Thome in between Paulie and Dye to provide a nice R - L - R punch, but it looks like it is going to be either Dye-Paulie-Thome or Thome-Paulie-Dye.

I am curious to see how the batting order will play out.  It seems like the only slots that are pretty much locks are #1 and #4.  There is a pretty big difference between the #3 and #5 slots, so that will be interesting to see how it plays out.  It would almost seem better to sandwich Thome in between Paulie and Dye to provide a nice R - L - R punch, but it looks like it is going to be either Dye-Paulie-Thome or Thome-Paulie-Dye.

 

I like Thome-Paulie-Dye...cause it will get Thome more at bats...and get him up in the 1st inning every game.

The more time goes on, the more I like having Thome - Konerko - Dye, for a couple reasons.

 

1. It spreads out the lefties more - you put Thome at the end and he's 3 guys behind Pods, and right next to AJ.

2. It massively increases PK's chances for RBI's through Thome drawing walks.

3. It gives our best 2 hitters the best protection we can offer (If Thome or Konerko bats 5th, we better hope Crede, Iguchi, or AJ turn into 25+ home run guys, or they can just pitch around our 5th place hitter).

4. Thome and Konerko are bigger threats than Dye, and the closer they are to the front of the order, the more times they'll hit this season.

The more time goes on, the more I like having Thome - Konerko - Dye, for a couple reasons.

 

1.  It spreads out the lefties more - you put Thome at the end and he's 3 guys behind Pods, and right next to AJ.

2.  It massively increases PK's chances for RBI's through Thome drawing walks.

3.  It gives our best 2 hitters the best protection we can offer (If Thome or Konerko bats 5th, we better hope Crede, Iguchi, or AJ turn into 25+ home run guys, or they can just pitch around our 5th place hitter).

4.  Thome and Konerko are bigger threats than Dye, and the closer they are to the front of the order, the more times they'll hit this season.

I agree with you and tonyho7476 110%. I think getting the extra ABs for Thome and providing protection for both is paramount.

 

Now to spread out the Lefites, would it be completely crazy to put Paulie 3rd, so the Sox could have the #1 slot, #4 slot, and say the #7 slots lefites? L-R-R-L-R-R-L-R-R. Thome would provide protection for Konerko, and Dye provides protection for Thome.

 

Pods - Uribe - Thome - Konerko - Dye - AJ - Gooch - Crede - Anderson?

 

Pods - Uribe - Konerko - Thome - Dye - Gooch - AJ - Crede - Anderson?

Edited January 6, 200620 yr by RME JICO

I voted for >110 because I think this team will be better than last year and I wanted to be overly optimistic so instead of 105 I just boosted it higher. But as far as the championship, is anyone else worried about the Yankees? I mean there line-up has always been dangerous but now with Damon they are that much more potent.

 

Their big downer last year was the pitching. This year they bring back 6 bonafide big league starters (although not as good as the Sox overall). Johnson was down by his standards last year but is still a legit ace and then Mussina is a decent #2 or #3. Chacon pitched extremely well for them and will be there for a full season. Wang looked pretty good and if either Wright or Pavano regain the previous season form, they would be solid #4 or #5 pitchers. The bullpen has the best closer in the game in Rivera and just fortified with Farnsworth, Dotel and Ron Villone as set up men. Aaron Small looked great in spot starts last year and they will have specialists like Sturtze and Mike Myers. The pen at this point in time looks stronger than that of the Whitesox and while the starting pitching is not as good as the Sox, it is still solid to very good. That coupled with a line-up that features unreal talent might be a serious concern for the Sox. I think Sox still take them in 6 but I think part of all this line-up bolstering by KW is to think ahead to the Yankees. He did mention earlier in the off-season that the championship will have to go through NY (not sure I ever heard a world champ GM say it goes through some other team but whatever) and he understands that the Yanks have a talented pitching staff and if they get the bounces that the Sox got last year, they could very easily dominate from start to finish.

 

I still say Sox in 6 over the Yanks but I am a little more worried than I am about the Indians, Angels or Redsox.

I voted for >110 because I think this team will be better than last year and I wanted to be overly optimistic so instead of 105 I just boosted it higher.  But as far as the championship, is anyone else worried about the Yankees?  I mean there line-up has always been dangerous but now with Damon they are that much more potent. 

 

Their big downer last year was the pitching.  This year they bring back 6 bonafide big league starters (although not as good as the Sox overall).  Johnson was down by his standards last year but is still a legit ace and then Mussina is a decent #2 or #3.  Chacon pitched extremely well for them and will be there for a full season.  Wang looked pretty good and if either Wright or Pavano regain the previous season form, they would be solid #4 or #5 pitchers.  The bullpen has the best closer in the game in Rivera and just fortified with Farnsworth, Dotel and Ron Villone as set up men.  Aaron Small looked great in spot starts last year and they will have specialists like Sturtze and Mike Myers.  The pen at this point in time looks stronger than that of the Whitesox and while the starting pitching is not as good as the Sox, it is still solid to very good.  That coupled with a line-up that features unreal talent might be a serious concern for the Sox.  I think Sox still take them in 6 but I think part of all this line-up bolstering by KW is to think ahead to the Yankees.  He did mention earlier in the off-season that the championship will have to go through NY (not sure I ever heard a world champ GM say it goes through some other team but whatever) and he understands that the Yanks have a talented pitching staff and if they get the bounces that the Sox got last year, they could very easily dominate from start to finish. 

 

I still say Sox in 6 over the Yanks but I am a little more worried than I am about the Indians, Angels or Redsox.

 

Damon is an upgrade and that lineup is potent on paper, but who knows what that will translate into on the field. I don't think he is going to put up numbers like he has in the past. His stolen bases have slowly declined for the last 5 or so years down from 46 in 2000 to 18 in 2005. That is normally not a good sign over that length of time.

 

Who knows what Giambi will show up? Roids or Sosa 2005.

 

Sheffield just turned 37, so will he play OF or DH. How productive can he be in the OF for a full season at 37?

 

Their Pitching staff has the names, but Johnson is 42, Mussina 37, and the others (Pavano, Wang, Chacon, and Wright) would all be 5th or 6th starters on the Sox.

 

So yes the Yanks will be there, but I worry more about the A's and Indians because they don't have all the big names, but they have some under-rated talent.

Edited January 6, 200620 yr by RME JICO

Do you think we will re-sign pods after next year? Or do you think owens' speed will be sastisfactory? If we lost Pods, I'd be furious.

Do you think we will re-sign pods after next year? Or do you think owens' speed will be sastisfactory?  If we lost Pods, I'd be furious.

 

I really get the feeling that pods will be gone as soon as he hits FA. The Sox have too many guys they like in the OF in the minors.

Damon is an upgrade and that lineup is potent on paper, but who knows what that will translate into on the field.  I don't think he is going to put up numbers like he has in the past.  His stolen bases have slowly declined for the last 5 or so years down from 46 in 2000 to 18 in 2005.  That is normally not a good sign over that length of time.

 

Who knows what Giambi will show up? Roids or Sosa 2005.

 

Sheffield just turned 37, so will he play OF or DH.  How productive can he be in the OF for a full season at 37?

 

Their Pitching staff has the names, but Johnson is 42, Mussina 37, and the others (Pavano, Wang, Chacon, and Wright) would all be 5th or 6th starters on the Sox.

 

So yes the Yanks will be there, but I worry more about the A's and Indians because they don't have all the big names, but they have some under-rated talent.

 

Well the reason why Damon's stolen bases have gone down is because Boston believes in moneyball(one reason why they hired Francona). Stolen bases are frowned upon in moneyball so he like many others have been told to cut it out.

I really get the feeling that pods will be gone as soon as he hits FA.  The Sox have too many guys they like in the OF in the minors.

 

He will only be 30 in 2006, so I think the Sox would re-sign him at a decent price to a 3 yr deal as insurance in case the others in the organization don't pan out.

Well the reason why Damon's stolen bases have gone down is because Boston believes in moneyball(one reason why they hired Francona). Stolen bases are frowned upon in moneyball so he like many others have been told to cut it out.

 

 

I don't think stolen bases are frowned upon in moneyball, they are just devalued (some might say undervalued). Its not like Damon is hurting the team by stealing bases, its just that its not as important of a stat, which I don't agree with.

Damon is an upgrade and that lineup is potent on paper, but who knows what that will translate into on the field.  I don't think he is going to put up numbers like he has in the past.  His stolen bases have slowly declined for the last 5 or so years down from 46 in 2000 to 18 in 2005.  That is normally not a good sign over that length of time.

 

Who knows what Giambi will show up? Roids or Sosa 2005.

 

Sheffield just turned 37, so will he play OF or DH.  How productive can he be in the OF for a full season at 37?

 

Their Pitching staff has the names, but Johnson is 42, Mussina 37, and the others (Pavano, Wang, Chacon, and Wright) would all be 5th or 6th starters on the Sox.

 

So yes the Yanks will be there, but I worry more about the A's and Indians because they don't have all the big names, but they have some under-rated talent.

 

Johnson is an old man and Mussina is getting there. Pavano, Wright and Chacon can prove to be very solid, followed by Wang and Small .. that's potentially a pretty good rotation. Add to that the fact that Johnson and/or Mussina are still wily veterans that could possibly put in a good year, and the Yanks starting staff could be very good. Their bullpen can also prove to be extremely solid and the lineup is killer. The Yankees are the team to beat from a White sox perspective. When NY signed Damon and KW said the road would travel thru NY, he again showed his basegball knowledge.

I don't think stolen bases are frowned upon in moneyball, they are just devalued (some might say undervalued).  Its not like Damon is hurting the team by stealing bases, its just that its not as important of a stat, which I don't agree with.

 

I always heard it was frowned upon.

I really get the feeling that pods will be gone as soon as he hits FA.  The Sox have too many guys they like in the OF in the minors.

 

But can any of them fill the lead-off role the same way Pods has?

 

He's the first decent lead-off man the Sox have had since Durham left. Besides maybe Lofton for the one month he was here and healthy.

 

When Durham got on a roll, the team got on a roll. When he slumped the team slumped. When Pods is healthy, the team wins. When he went on the DL last year, the team couldn't beat anybody.

 

He's also very good at making the pitcher work. I don't know how many times I've seen him take two strikes, foul off a few pitches and somehow end up with a full count in his first AB. Before you know it, the pitcher has throw 20 pitches in the first inning. And when he does get on base, he's a legitamite base-stealing threat. Unlike someone like Harris who had plenty of speed but didn't know how to use it.

 

If there's a guy in the minors (and I admit I don't follow the minors at all) that can do all that and be an upgrade on defense, then I'm all for it. Until then, I vote we keep him around.

 

The guys in the minors can always be used as trade bait to fill other holes.

Edited January 6, 200620 yr by Iwritecode

Johnson is an old man and Mussina is getting there.  Pavano, Wright and Chacon can prove to be very solid, followed by Wang and Small .. that's potentially a pretty good rotation.  Add to that the fact that Johnson and/or Mussina are still wily veterans that could possibly put in a good year, and the Yanks starting staff could be very good.  Their bullpen can also prove to be extremely solid and the lineup is killer.  The Yankees are the team to beat from a White sox perspective.  When NY signed Damon and KW said the road would travel thru NY, he again showed his basegball knowledge.

Like I said the Yanks will be there, but I don't see them as the team to beat. Of course KW is going to say that because it is easier to be the underdog and fly under the radar as much as possible.

I always heard it was frowned upon.

I believe it is specifically frowned upon unless a base stealer can successfully swipe at above a certain rate (something like 80%), because the numbers supposedly state that you're vastly more likely to score an additional run with the runner on 1st and waiting for a home run than you are by trying to push the runner to 2nd and potentially wasting an out.

I believe it is specifically frowned upon unless a base stealer can successfully swipe at above a certain rate (something like 80%), because the numbers supposedly state that you're vastly more likely to score an additional run with the runner on 1st and waiting for a home run than you are by trying to push the runner to 2nd and potentially wasting an out.

 

Okay. Thanks. Its all a bunch of crap anyway. If you never steal. you never get the pitcher's attention off the batter, which might lead to more hits for the team. Is that accounted for in Moneyball? I hate billy beane and I hate Moneyball.

Also (off topic here): Recently (yesterday), one of the posters had an avatar of a hot asian girl listening to an ipod or something in jeans and a cut off shirt (semi-upshirt view) bobbing from side to side. Who was that girl?

I admit that Pods may not be as complete of a player than some of the guys in the farm system have the potential to be.... but what he specializes in is perfect for the leadoff role, and for what the sox need with their style of play. I can almost guarantee that Pods would exceed any players in the farm system in SB and sacrifices any given year. In this sense, he is far more valuable than any player they could bring up in his place at this point in time.