Check this out. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

I wonder if bp thinks we've made the playoffs yet in 05?

24% doesn't seem unreasonable given this team's current offensive woes.

Must feel good to be a Mets fan with a 74% chance of making the playoffs. 0% chance of advancing.

This is a stupid article. The Sox have 0% chance of making it, until they do, and then they have a 100% chance of making it. Until then, it doesn't matter.

This is a stupid article. The Sox have 0% chance of making it, until they do, and then they have a 100% chance of making it. Until then, it doesn't matter.

Not true. I think BP had us at like 93 percent after we clinched the division in 05.

Edited May 11, 200718 yr by Rowand44

This is a stupid article. The Sox have 0% chance of making it, until they do, and then they have a 100% chance of making it. Until then, it doesn't matter.

 

it matters in terms of betting MLB futures

Not true. I think BP had us at like 93 percent after we clinched the division in 05.

And that right there should tell you all you need to know about the measures they are using.

Not true. I think BP had us at like 93 percent after we clinched the division in 05.

 

it matters in terms of betting MLB futures

 

There you go....the silver lining.

24% doesn't seem unreasonable given this team's current offensive woes.

I was a little suprised that it was that high, but I imagine their tough schedule up to this point plays into it

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php

BP also had the Red Sox at .03% or something of winning the WS when they were down 3-0 to the Yanks back in 2004.

 

Either the Red Sox achieve some kind of science miracle, or BP is full of s***.

 

I wonder which one it is.

BP also had the Red Sox at .03% or something of winning the WS when they were down 3-0 to the Yanks back in 2004.

 

Either the Red Sox achieve some kind of science miracle, or BP is full of s***.

 

I wonder which one it is.

 

Aren't the Red Sox the only team in NBA or MLB history to come back from a 3-0 deficit?

Aren't the Red Sox the only team in NBA or MLB history to come back from a 3-0 deficit?

Yeah, I was going to say, that particular event having a very slim chance actually makes sense to me. If it was .3% or something, I might agree with that.

QUOTE(fathom @ May 11, 2007 -> 05:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Aren't the Red Sox the only team in NBA or MLB history to come back from a 3-0 deficit?

I take it you were watching the Bulls game last night.

 

1942 Maple Leafs and 1975 Islanders came back from 3-0 deficits in the NHL.

 

QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ May 11, 2007 -> 05:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yeah, I was going to say, that particular event having a very slim chance actually makes sense to me. If it was .3% or something, I might agree with that.

No, the point is you can't quantify something with such a large human impact.

 

Since no team at that time every game back, their odds to win the AL Pennantwere close to zero.

Keep in mind that this is the BP who has the Cubs ranked #4 in their power ratings dated 5/11/07.

I take it you were watching the Bulls game last night.

 

1942 Maple Leafs and 1975 Islanders came back from 3-0 deficits in the NHL.

No, the point is you can't quantify something with such a large human impact.

 

Since no team at that time every game back, their odds to win the AL Pennantwere close to zero.

yes you can quantify something with a human impact. no you will never be 100% correct but you can be damn near close. BP is pretty good at being able to predict what players will do. People point out their mistakes and take those as the rule which they are not. None of us understand the analysis that goes on to create the numbers they do so any sort of statement against BP is purely based on the fact that they've said something negative about the sox.

 

I wish my brother were here cuz he's a huge stathead that understands all the BP stuff and he could run circles around you guys and me explaining why 24% makes sense at this point in time and why the Sawks at .03% being down 3-0 makes sense as well. for that one at least - think about it - in the 100+ years of MLB no team had EVER done that and with the role the Yanks were on who could have expected it? after each win after that the percentage went up. How does that not make sense to people?

Up to 26%, here we go!

I wish my brother were here cuz he's a huge stathead that understands all the BP stuff and he could run circles around you guys and me explaining why 24% makes sense at this point in time

...

yes you can quantify something with a human impact. no you will never be 100% correct but you can be damn near close. BP is pretty good at being able to predict what players will do. People point out their mistakes and take those as the rule which they are not. None of us understand the analysis that goes on to create the numbers they do so any sort of statement against BP is purely based on the fact that they've said something negative about the sox.

 

I wish my brother were here cuz he's a huge stathead that understands all the BP stuff and he could run circles around you guys and me explaining why 24% makes sense at this point in time and why the Sawks at .03% being down 3-0 makes sense as well. for that one at least - think about it - in the 100+ years of MLB no team had EVER done that and with the role the Yanks were on who could have expected it? after each win after that the percentage went up. How does that not make sense to people?

 

I have no problem with the Sawks only having a .03% chance at winning when they were down 0-3. Those were the odds on that event happening. However, using these predictions this early in the season is somewhat silly, because they are assuming that the team is going to play the exact same way the rest of the year (130 games for the Sox). I would say these would start to be more realistic around the ASB.

...

figured i'd get some flack for saying that but its the truth.

 

I have no problem with the Sawks only having a .03% chance at winning when they were down 0-3. Those were the odds on that event happening. However, using these predictions this early in the season is somewhat silly, because they are assuming that the team is going to play the exact same way the rest of the year (130 games for the Sox). I would say these would start to be more realistic around the ASB.

 

thats completely right. at this point they're more likely to be wrong than they are as the season progresses. They mean less right now but that doesn't mean they never have any value.