*Official* Brock Lesnar vs. Randy Couture UFC Title Thread

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

Okay, so this is a huge fight that should attract a lot of different sports fans from different groups, so I figured it deserves it's own thread. Please make your predictions on this fight below. I've thought about this fight a lot and I'm finally ready to give my analysis. Not that anyone cares, but more like others may want to disagree with me.

 

I'm taking Lesnar. Here's my breakdown:

 

Stand-up: Randy is the much more fluid striker, but he lacks Lesnar's power. I'm willing to bet that the majority of Lesnar's work for this camp has gone to his stand-up. The only way Randy can hurt him in the first three rounds, aside from making a critical error out of stupidity (which I think is something Brock got out of his system in the Mir fight) is by connecting on the feet. The problem is, Brock is going to have a big reach advantage and a huge power advantage. Brock isn't a sick Tim Sylvia either, nor is he a Gabe Gonzaga that can't go two rounds without gassing horribly, so he is not going to just stand in front of him and do nothing. Brock is going to circle, and as long as Brock can use his improved striking - because it will be improved - to push the pace and take control of the middle of the Octagon, Randy isn't going to get Brock panicking and backing up toward the cage. Unless Randy can get inside by faking a shot and then land a big enough punch to hurt Brock and set up another, Randy isn't going to have Brock moving backwards towards the cage where it is harder to circle away. And that brings me to my next point.

 

Takedowns: Randy is not going to be able to take Brock down and that really hurts Randy's striking ability, because it will keep him on the outside. Also, if Brock isn't going to fear a shot, then he's not going to fear throwing some heavy leg and body kicks which he has been working on a ton. If Randy shoots in there is a very good chance he gets punished with a big knee. Randy isn't going to be able to get a wrestler that size and with that athletic ability down. People went nuts about Randy getting Chuck down, but LMFAO, Brock is not Chuck. No takedowns for Randy. Brock OTOH should be able to take Randy down almost at will. And I don't say this because of the way he tossed Mir and Herring around either, because those guys aren't known for their TD defense, I say this because Brock is on another level as a HW wrestler in MMA.

 

Clinch: Anyone who watched the Lesnar-Herring fight knows about Brock has some pretty nasty knees from the clinch. Randy's dirty boxing is only going to be effective if Brock is hurt or tired, but Randy isn't going to get Brock to that point by going to the clinch first. He's going to have to hurt him on his feet or somehow gain top position on the ground in order for him to be effective in the clinch. Brock is too big, too strong, and too powerful to be dominated in the clinch like Tim and GG. Brock will get a takedown out of it or f*** him up with a knee or two and take it to the ground. If Brock is winning the stand-up, he'll hold Randy and force a break.

 

Ground: The word is that Brock's submission defense has improved a ton since the Mir fight, and I believe it because he's had Comprido in who has praised him, so I think Brock's improved sub defense combined with his strength advantage and his huge upper body completely negates any advantage Randy has in applying submissions. If Randy gets put on his back, he'll either sweep and put Brock on his back or he'll roll and give up his back like Herring kept doing. Like the Herring fight, I don't see Brock taking Randy's back if he gives it to him; I just see him looking to capitalize with a knee or two and a couple punches to the side of the head until Randy scrambles to his feet. I don't expect Brock to gain full mount unless he connects on the feet first and hurts Randy. Then he goes in for the finish. He's not going to be able to do to Randy what he did to Herring, although he will have the size and strength advantage on the ground. OTOH, if Randy gets Brock on his back then that's a lot of trouble for Brock. If it's early enough in the fight and Brock still has a lot of gas left then I think he'll be able to escape and will scramble back to his feet because I don't see Randy keeping him down. If it's late in the fight, then Brock probably gets TKO'd IMO.

 

Cardio: Brock's wrestling pedigree and Greg Nelson's infamous "caveman training" is going to have him ready for 3 full rounds. Past that, that's a lot of mass to carry around. Randy in the fourth and fifth rounds, if it gets there, will be very tired after dealing with Lesnar for three, yet he'll look pretty fresh compared to Lesnar. This is the biggest advantage Randy has in the fight, bar none.

 

Athletic ability/physical attributes: All Brock.

 

Experience: Randy has all the experience, but the downside is that Brock has all the video. Randy doesn't know exactly how much Brock's skills have improved, but he does know the situations inexperienced fighters like Brock can put themselves in. This is NOT - I repeat NOT - an advantage for Randy Couture unless Lesnar makes it an advantage for him. If Lesnar sticks to his gameplan he will maul Randy. If he abandons it, then it's a different story altogether. It's like Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Greg Maddux. Greg is lightyears more experienced and game-smart than Daisuke is. Matsuzaka doesn't appear to trust his stuff and throws too many pitches, often getting him out a game early when he could easily be throwing a CG. That considered, it's 2008, not 1994, so who do you want on your team now? Obviously Dice-K. But if we turn the tables a bit - it's Game 7 of the WS, 2 outs, bottom of the ninth, bases loaded, you're up by one, and it's a 3-2 count. Who do you want then? Who do you feel more confident in as far as throwing a strike? That situation is the only way Randy's experience becomes a factor. It only matters if Lesnar has not used his superior ability to dominate the fight earlier and he instead finds himself in a situation late where he needs to do something big - like if he's on his back in the 5th round.

 

Intangibles: Heart, desire, focus, determination, will to win, all that stuff I think you can pretty much put them tied. People should consider how Brock is a self-made man and has been an athlete all his life, even in the WWE. Even though he was given the WWE title, he still had to work his ass off behind the scenes for it. Even though he was given a UFC title shot 3 fights into his career, he still had to impress against Mir and dominate Herring. Randy is obviously a no-brainer. Those intangible qualities help make him a champion.

 

The way for Randy to win: Randy needs to shoot in for the takedown early in the first round, perhaps right after the bell. Lesnar is probably going to think Randy will stand with him at first to feel him out and won't expect a takedown attempt so soon. Ideally, he doesn't get the takedown, just goes in for the shot, then pops up with a big right hand - do exactly to Lesnar what Lesnar did to Herring to set the tone, and exactly what Randy did to Big Tim. Hurt him early, and push the pace. Force Brock backwards against the cage into uncomfortable waters. Make Brock panic. Make him expend too much energy in the first two rounds. Most of all, Randy ALWAYS needs to keep at a safe distance or stay close inside. He can't try to move in and out against Brock, because he'll get killed that way. Make Brock feel pressured so he goes back to his wrestling roots and drives for the takedown. Hope Brock is angry and overly aggressive/defensive at this point, then look to sweep from guard. Put Brock on his back and throw punches - they don't have to hurt; they just have to keep Brock from thinking straight - and then keep the pressure through the first two rounds. Stay with that gameplan, then into round 3 Randy will have a significant cardio advantage where he'll be able to use his dirty boxing effectively. Perhaps even if he outworks Brock a lot, by the late fourth or fifth round Randy might even be able to get a takedown.

 

My take overall: Brock is going to come in prepared, calm, and confident. He'll leave as the new UFC HW champion after demolishing Couture in the 2nd round via TKO. Pro-wrestling fans everywhere will s*** themselves with joy while MMA elitists everywhere will cry like pussies. Those in between will simply enjoy the fight and place Brock in the top-5 of the MMA HW rankings (behind Fedor, Nog, Barnett, and Arlovski).

 

Your thoughts and predictions?

Edited November 12, 2008 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

^That's a lot to read, but this is a fun fight to try to break down. So many unknowns here and yet such a huge fight.

[zenryan]

I like Lesnar here too.

 

Probably a decision.

[SoxFan562004]

Randy by sub second round, if Lesnar gets sloppy on Randy's back like he did with Heath Randy will make him pay

[CrimsonWeltall]

I really don't want him to win (and I think it's ridiculous that a guy who is 1-1 is getting a title shot), but I think Lesnar will take it.

[MHizzle85]

I really don't want him to win (and I think it's ridiculous that a guy who is 1-1 is getting a title shot), but I think Lesnar will take it.

It's strictly for the buyrate. It should easily be Minotauro vs. Randy, but Noguiera has the fight with Mir already lined up.

[zenryan]

Randy by sub second round, if Lesnar gets sloppy on Randy's back like he did with Heath Randy will make him pay

 

 

 

When did Lesnar get sloppy on Herring's back(other than the rodeo riding thing)? He had Herring in a turtle position and was just pounding him. You dont need to always go for the hooks to control someone. With Brock's size and wrestling ability, it will be hard for anyone to reverse that position.

 

 

TKO or sub? Couture has no submission game.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

When did Lesnar get sloppy on Herring's back(other than the rodeo riding thing)? He had Herring in a turtle position and was just pounding him. You dont need to always go for the hooks to control someone. With Brock's size and wrestling ability, it will be hard for anyone to reverse that position.

 

 

TKO or sub? Couture has no submission game.

Agree completely with the first part. Not every fighter has to sink in a RNC at the first opportunity. In that fight it was more dangerous to Brock to go all out for the finish. Brock needed that fight in order to prove that he wasn't some over-hyped fake wrestler, so with the stakes being so high he opted to take his time, play it safe, and use his dominant wrestling to overwhelm Heath.

 

As for Randy's BJJ, the guy supposedly does well for himself rolling with Jacare so he must be pretty good, but going against a MW is not the same as going against Lesnar. I don't see Randy pulling off any leg or foot locks at any point in this fight and I don't see him sinking in any kind of choke around Lesnar's giant neck either. He's not going to pull anything fancy like a gogoplata or even a triangle choke. No flying armbars either, and I doubt Randy is strong enough to catch him in a kimura. I guess maybe an armbar might work but I highly doubt it given Lesnar's superior wrestling advantage and improvement on the ground. I guess I'd just love to know how those who think Randy will win by sub actually see Lesnar getting subbed. Randy isn't Frank Mir, and even if he was, Brock isn't going to be dumb enough to just stand up in his guard again. If the fight ends up on the ground, Brock will tighten things up a lot. Besides, the only guys Randy has ever subbed in his career are Mike Van Arsdale and Ludvig Borga the pro-wrestler. If Randy subs Lesnar, and you happen to for some reason be outside at the time, go ahead and dive under the nearest shelter because it's going to start raining cats.

[SoxFanForever]

I think you are putting a lot of faith in a guy who has had 2 or 3 professional fights (did that first one in XC or whatever count?). I don't think Brock will be nearly as impressive as you are hoping. I'm not a Randy fan by any means. however, I think he will come up wtih a gameplan to handle Lesnar.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I think you are putting a lot of faith in a guy who has had 2 or 3 professional fights (did that first one in XC or whatever count?). I don't think Brock will be nearly as impressive as you are hoping. I'm not a Randy fan by any means. however, I think he will come up wtih a gameplan to handle Lesnar.

Brock has had 3 fights. The first was for K-1 Heroes before they formed the Dream promotion after Pride was sold. Lesnar was supposed to fight Hong Man Choi but Choi got taken out of the bout by the CSAC so Brock ended up destorying a judo guy named Min-Soo Kim. Then he went to the UFC, lost to Mir, and beat Herring.

 

It's not that I'm hoping for Brock to win, it's that I just can't see how Randy can beat him. Brock is better at everything except experience, applying and defending submissions, technique on the feet, and probably cardio in the 4th and 5th rounds of a fight. But the way I see it, Brock's power and reach will nullify Randy's technique; Brock's size, strength, and continued development of his submission defense will remove any chance of Randy subbing him; and Brock's physical attributes combined with his wrestling advantage, power advantage, and reach advantage will make it so hard on Randy that he can't get the fight into the later rounds where he'll be able to fully utilize his cardio and experience advantages.

 

I'll say it another way: if Lesnar had another year of development under him and 3 more fights worth of experience, this fight would be looked at as a mismatch in favor of Lesnar. The only reason the lines are close on this fight is because Brock is so new to the sport that people are questioning his worthiness as far as a title shot goes.

 

I mean, just think about this fight in your head. Think about a guy the size of Lesnar, with the power of Lesnar, with the athletic ability of Lesnar, along with the wrestling credentials and cardio. Just try to picture Randy doing to Brock what he did to Sylvia. I can't. There are maybe 4 guys at HW right now that at this very moment I would definitely take to beat Lesnar: Barnett and Velasquez on the feet if they could stop his takedowns, Nog on the ground, and Fedor pretty much wherever he wants since he's a machine. There are other guys with the skills to beat him either standing or on the mat, like Antonio Silva, even Brett Rogers with a lucky punch, Mir in a rematch, Werdum, Carwin, Gonzaga, Kongo, Overeem, Arlovski, etc. but I doubt any of those guys could stuff his takedowns or survive the onslaught long enough to pull off a sub. Lesnar is hyped a ton, but he really is pretty f***ing awesome. I think he's gonna maul Randy.

[zenryan]

Agree completely with the first part. Not every fighter has to sink in a RNC at the first opportunity. In that fight it was more dangerous to Brock to go all out for the finish. Brock needed that fight in order to prove that he wasn't some over-hyped fake wrestler, so with the stakes being so high he opted to take his time, play it safe, and use his dominant wrestling to overwhelm Heath.

 

As for Randy's BJJ, the guy supposedly does well for himself rolling with Jacare so he must be pretty good, but going against a MW is not the same as going against Lesnar. I don't see Randy pulling off any leg or foot locks at any point in this fight and I don't see him sinking in any kind of choke around Lesnar's giant neck either. He's not going to pull anything fancy like a gogoplata or even a triangle choke. No flying armbars either, and I doubt Randy is strong enough to catch him in a kimura. I guess maybe an armbar might work but I highly doubt it given Lesnar's superior wrestling advantage and improvement on the ground. I guess I'd just love to know how those who think Randy will win by sub actually see Lesnar getting subbed. Randy isn't Frank Mir, and even if he was, Brock isn't going to be dumb enough to just stand up in his guard again. If the fight ends up on the ground, Brock will tighten things up a lot. Besides, the only guys Randy has ever subbed in his career are Mike Van Arsdale and Ludvig Borga the pro-wrestler. If Randy subs Lesnar, and you happen to for some reason be outside at the time, go ahead and dive under the nearest shelter because it's going to start raining cats.

 

 

 

There's a difference in rolling with someone and trying to submit them and rolling with someone and trying not to get submitted. Couture's lack of submissions was evident in the first round vs. Sylvia. Couture had his back for 5 whole minutes and never came close to finishing Tim.

 

Now Couture's wife is causing drama for him a week before the biggest MMA fight in UFC history. She has been nothing but a distraction and has basically ruined the last couple of years for him.

[T R U]

And for the record, Lesnar was destroying Mir as well until he got caught in a bad submission and tapped.. its not like he wasnt impressive and this is a "meh" 1-1 record coming in..

 

It is still 1-1 though

[MHizzle85]

I believe Couture's strategy will be to try and simply out work him. Similar to how Sean Sherk wins fights. Just grind on Brock to test his cardio and ride out a decision victory.

 

However, I don't see that working. I think Lesnar will just be too big for him on the ground...I say Lesnar by decision.

[zenryan]

Randy looks really deflated.

 

 

 

 

 

[MHizzle85]

Randy looks really deflated.

 

 

 

 

 

Wow, he really does.

[CrimsonWeltall]

Brock is going to have like 60 pounds on Randy at fight time.

[justBLAZE]

Is there a place around Chicago you can watch this fight and don't need an ID?

 

Some of my friends are not 21, we're trying to watch this fight.

[The Critic]

Is there a place around Chicago you can watch this fight and don't need an ID?

 

Some of my friends are not 21, we're trying to watch this fight.

Here's a list of places showing the PPV.

Most appear to be bars, but you can make some calls to ask about under-21 options.

 

http://www.mmahotstuff.com/about/2008/11/u...-locations.html

 

Spike TV is showing a preview show, and they're kind of making me want to order the PPV.

I won't order it, but they're making me want to.

[Kyyle23]

Im gonna be at Fox and Hound in Schaumburg watching the fight tonite. Im looking forward to it, me and my softball team are having our end of the season bash and we decided on tonite unanimously when we saw what was going on, its gonna be a fun night.

[zenryan]

Hooters should be showing it.

[DrunkBomber]

Im just ordering it, I have a kegerator, what else do I need?

[Milkman delivers]

I ordered it.

[SleepyWhiteSox]

I'd watch if FTA wasn't down.

[DrunkBomber]

Correction, Comcast f***ed me

[Milkman delivers]

Wow, that Gonzaga fight was pathetic.