Cowley: Alexei Best Sox Defensive Player of Spring Training

[BaseballNick]

If you're saying that Cowley predicts Alexei to win the GG at short this season based on his write-up in today's Sun-Times, I think you're looking too deeply into this. He assigned all of the major awards to Sox players including the MVP to Josh Fields. I'm pretty sure this was based entirely on the players' ST performances. It was just some filler to hold us over until Monday.

[chw42]

ASK TORII HUNTER where he ranks among the best defensive centerfielders, and he appears perplexed. "You mean, where I rank with guys now, or in history?" he says. The Angels' Hunter takes his defense as seriously as you'd expect from someone who says, "To catch a ball, I'd commit suicide." And to most of the baseball world, for that matter, it's conventional wisdom that he's one of the best fielders, period. Try to prod Hunter into naming another American League centerfielder in his class defensively, and he just shakes his head. The Indians' Grady Sizemore, perhaps? "Nah," Hunter says. "He's got some work to do. He takes bad jumps." The Tigers' Curtis Granderson? "He's up there, but he has to learn to take better routes," Hunter says. "You shouldn't dive as much as Grandy dives." Hunter's replacement in Minnesota last season, Carlos Gomez? "Dude is quick, but he also goes from points A to B to C to D when he should be going A to B," says Hunter. "And he's too aggressive with his throwing. Just look at his errors. [Gomez had eight.] I had none. Zero." He flashes a smile and shrugs. Case closed, as far as he's concerned.

 

And few would disagree. Certainly not the managers and coaches who last fall voted him to an eighth straight Gold Glove award. (Only five outfielders in history have won more.) Certainly not the Angels, who last winter lured him off the free-agent market with a $90 million contract, as much for his defensive reputation as his bat. And certainly not the fans, players, scouts and other baseball cognoscenti who favor traditional fielding statistics—errors, fielding percentage (Hunter's was a perfect 1.000) and putouts (his 350 were fifth among AL outfielders)—and watch the familiar sight of the 33-year-old gliding gracefully over the grass and, on occasion, scaling the outfield wall to rob a batter of a home run. To the eye, there is nothing to indicate that Hunter is anything but what he thinks he is: an elite centerfielder, the best in the American League, possibly one of the best ever to play the position.

 

But here's a flash for Hunter: Comparing players' defensive skills is no longer as scientific as sizing up Best Supporting Actress performances before the Oscars. In his first Bill James Abstract, in 1977, the oracle of statistical analysis lamented the inability to quantify defensive success with anything other than such antiquated statistics as errors and fielding percentage. It has taken three decades, but the mystery of defensive analysis, perhaps the last frontier in the statistical ether, has been cracked by sabermetricians who have devoted 15, 20 years to the cause. The clunkily named metrics that have emerged within the last five years may sound like topics at a symposium for mechanical engineers—Probablistic Model of Range, Defensive Regression Analysis, Special Aggregate Fielding Evaluation, Ultimate Zone Rating—but not only have they become accepted by analysts like James as accurate tools, they have also infiltrated the daily vernacular of front offices.

 

But major league clubhouses? Not so much. "The Probablistic Model of who?" asks Hunter, after he's told where he stands by measure of the metrics. Not only does he rate below Sizemore, below Granderson and below Gomez, Hunter was also regarded across the board as a merely average fielder, and in many instances, below average—which is the case according to Bill James's disciple John Dewan, author of The Fielding Bible and creator of the Plus/Minus Runs Saved metric, which six years ago did rank Hunter as the league's top centerfielder. Now Dewan's numbers show that Hunter has been steadily slowing down, and that last season he made plays on five fewer balls than an average centerfielder would be expected to make, costing the Angels four runs. The best defensive centerfielder in the AL? Dewan's calculations says it's Gomez, who tracked down 14 more balls than the average centerfielder and saved Hunter's old team 16 runs. "If I've lost a step, I'm still better than the average person," Hunter huffs. "When I need a walker, I'll go to rightfield and be the best rightfielder in the game."

 

In addition to telling us that Hunter is an average defensive outfielder, the metrics also suggest that the Yankees should relocate Derek Jeter, long rated by the metrics as the worst-fielding shortstop in baseball, to the outfield and that the Cubs' Alfonso Soriano, because of his strong arm, has saved more runs than any other leftfielder since moving from second base in 2006. In a poststeroid era, when scoring and home run totals have fallen as fast as the NASDAQ and speed and defense are becoming as important and as appreciated as they were during the Whiteyball days in St. Louis two decades ago, these metrics are becoming essential tools for winning organizations.

 

"There are still teams stuck in the Dark Ages," says one American League general manager, "but the secret's getting out. Defensive metrics have almost caught up to the offensive side. Some people would say they didn't think they'd see this day. But the revolution's here."

 

IN 1982 John Dewan was an actuary living in Chicago when a coworker handed him a copy of the Bill James Abstract. Dewan, a die-hard White Sox fan who grew up playing the baseball simulation board game Strat-O-Matic, was instantly hooked. Two years later he was sitting at his kitchen table reading one of James's articles about creating an organization of volunteers who would record detailed play-by-play information not found in the box scores of every major league game. "I put the book down, and I went to the phone and called directory assistance in Lawrence, Kansas," says Dewan. "I got Bill James's assistant on the line and signed up immediately."

 

Dewan became the director of the organization, Project Scoresheet, a year later while continuing to hold down his day job. Soon after quitting his actuary job in '87 to devote himself full-time to statistical analysis, he invented a metric called Zone Rating, in which he took play-by-play data and calculated the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his defensive zone, as well as balls outside of his zone. (By these metrics, Jeter always ranks among the lowest shortstops because he doesn't get to many balls outside a shortstop's zone.) Ten years later companies such as STATS Inc. and Baseball Info Solutions (which Dewan cofounded in 2002 with Steve Moyer) began hiring armies of new college grads who collectively would watch every game and keep a detailed log of what happened to every batted ball: what kind of pitch was hit, where the ball was hit, how hard it was hit, who fielded it and how it was or wasn't turned into an out.

 

THE DATA has given Dewan and other analysts the power to compute, with great precision, a player's ability to turn batted balls into outs. In 2003, in a forum on the website Baseball Think Factory, a professional poker player living in Las Vegas named Michtel Licthman introduced, in a 6,800-word primer, a metric that he called Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). Lichtman was crunching numbers with data he purchased from STATS Inc.—paying nearly $10,000 for it annually—and, like Dewan, was measuring the runs saved or lost by every fielder compared to the league average at his position. His UZR model was similar to the plus/minus system that Dewan had come up with, but with more parameters for each batted ball; among them, the ballpark, whether the pitcher and batter were left- or righthanded, and the ground ball and fly ball tendencies of the pitcher.

 

Gradually baseball people outside the sabermetrics community began to take notice. During spring training in '04, Dewan was giving a presentation to the White Sox' front office in the team cafeteria when manager Ozzie Guillen and his players wandered in to have lunch, their game that day having been rained out. Dewan noticed that Guillen would occasionally glance over at the presentation. Eventually he walked up to Dewan and started flipping through his statistical samples. "If they had this s--- when I was playing," the manager announced to the room, "I would have been the best f------ shortstop who ever lived."

 

http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vau...911/1/index.htm (for link to complete article)

 

I like plus/minus a lot, but Soriano saving the Cubs runs? Don't know about that. I've always seen Hunter as a great outfielder and it really surprises me that plus/minus only rates him as an average one. Thing is, plus/minus is completely based off of opinion. Not horribly bad opinions, but it's still an opinion. It's almost in the same league with errors, but a lot more unbiased. In other words, it's not perfect.

 

BTW, the Ozzie Guillen quote was hilarious.

[Kalapse]

If you're saying that Cowley predicts Alexei to win the GG at short this season based on his write-up in today's Sun-Times, I think you're looking too deeply into this. He assigned all of the major awards to Sox players including the MVP to Josh Fields. I'm pretty sure this was based entirely on the players' ST performances. It was just some filler to hold us over until Monday.

Good call. Title changed. This is why we LINK to stories when we post blurbs.

 

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/wh...T-sox03.article

 

April 3, 2009

BY JOE COWLEY jcowley@suntimes.com

 

MARYVALE, Ariz. -- Most of the major-league side of the White Sox' new facility at Camelback Ranch was packed up Thursday morning. That's one sign that the longest spring training since the 1995 strike fiasco is -- finally -- close to ending.

 

The other sure sign? Eccentric third-base coach Jeff Cox keeping the team loose with his morning antics during stretching.

 

Cox took on pitching coach Don Cooper in a shirtless race, which Cox won easily. One day earlier, Cox was in full catcher's attire, blocking balls at the plate to the amusement of A.J. Pierzynski and other Sox veterans.

 

Any way you look at it, it's time to get out of here.

 

You can see it on the faces of the players and manager Ozzie Guillen, who said, ''I feel like we've been here for three months.''

 

He said that last week.

 

Before the players can bust out their parkas for an expected chilly opener against the Kansas City Royals on Monday at U.S. Cellular Field, here's a look back at some of the best and worst from 2009 spring training:

 

MVP: Josh Fields. The former Oklahoma State quarterback and 2004 first-round pick won't make anyone forget Joe Crede's defense at third base. Offensively, however, Fields is far above where Crede was at this point in his career. He hit over .400 throughout camp, and despite a few hiccups with the glove, he looks like a potential force with the bat after having clean-up surgery on his knee and LASIK surgery on his eyes.

 

BEST PITCHER: Gavin Floyd. It isn't often that general manager Ken Williams will tell a pitcher to tone it down the first week of camp, but Floyd came in so far ahead of where pitchers are expected to be in mid-February that Williams did just that. Floyd must not have gotten the memo, because he looked dominant through his final start Thursday. Don't be shocked to see him become the Sox's first 20-game winner since Esteban Loaiza did it in 2003.

 

BEST RELIEVER: Bobby Jenks. It's getting to the point that Jenks can't win. When he threw 99 to 100 mph, critics thought he relied too much on his fastball. Now that the velocity is down and he focuses more on efficiency to get hitters out, he's ripped as being on a downslide. Jenks didn't allow a run in seven innings this spring -- with six strikeouts, by the way.

 

GOLD GLOVE: Alexei Ramirez. It's almost hard to judge Ramirez's defense at shortstop because there are few diving stops and little drama. The reason is he gets to everything in the hole with such ease. He'll be a ''Web Gem'' in the making on a nightly basis this season.

 

COMEBACK PLAYER: Jose Contreras. The veteran right-hander showed up 30 pounds lighter and defied the odds by making it back from a ruptured left Achilles tendon three months ahead of schedule, earning a spot in the starting rotation.

 

MOST OVERRATED: Jeff Marquez. The young right-hander, acquired from the New York Yankees in the Nick Swisher deal, proved to be a Cubs killer in a pair of exhibition games. Unfortunately for Marquez, the Sox play the Cubs only six times a year when it matters.

 

MOST UNDERRATED: Paul Konerko. How can ''The King'' and team captain be overlooked? He's hitting .361 with four home runs and 12 RBI entering the final two Cactus League games against the Arizona Diamondbacks. All the offseason talk of Konerko ''being at peace with himself'' after a subpar 2008 season sounded like damage control but now looks to be real.

 

BEST ROOKIE: Gordon Beckham. Believe the hype. The former University of Georgia standout was deemed ''special'' when the Sox drafted him last June, and he didn't disappoint in his first camp. If Chris Getz stumbles or is injured, don't be surprised to see Beckham on the South Side this season.

[beck72]

If you're saying that Cowley predicts Alexei to win the GG at short this season based on his write-up in today's Sun-Times, I think you're looking too deeply into this. He assigned all of the major awards to Sox players including the MVP to Josh Fields. I'm pretty sure this was based entirely on the players' ST performances. It was just some filler to hold us over until Monday.

Exactly, I think Cowley was just talking about who played the best on the sox, and making league wide predictions.

 

I personally don't care if Alexei wins a GG. I just care that he plays above avg. defense [which he should]. The sox sure need him to, with rookies on both sides of him.

[caulfield12]

Ummm....it's hard to call Fields a "rookie" at this point in his career.

[beck72]

Ummm....it's hard to call Fields a "rookie" at this point in his career.

It's even harder to put the tag "vet" on him, though, at this point in his career. And, seeing how Fields worked in the offseason, it sounds like he practiced more like a rookie/ "young player not established in the league" who knew he needed to work on key aspects of his fielding in order to improve.

 

My larger point is, defensively, we don't know what we'll get from either Fields or Getz. Alexei is the key, esp. if he can range to his right [and make plays that Fields moving to his left may not] and if alexei can move to his left and get some balls Getz may not be able to catch.

[caulfield12]

Getz has to shade more up the middle. His definite weakness is plays to his right or throwing against his body and going away from 1st base...he has plenty of range going to his left, better than major league average for sure.

[Princess Dye]

I dont really understand why Alexei bats so low.