Future makeup of starting rotation

[ILMOU]

A core rotation of Halladay, Buehrle, Floyd, and Danks would be awesome.

 

Make it so, Kenny!

[beck72]

I think it's silly to offer anything guaranteed to Contreras, even if he keeps pitching the way he has been. It's just too much of a risk with his age (there's little doubt, IMO, that he isn't at least 2-3 years younger then the 37 years old he's listed as) and injury concerns. Also, I doubt anyone else would offer him much. If Contreras starts to deteriorate, which is still a possibility, he'll likely have to settle for a spring training invite.

 

So, you don't think a SP who can post the kind of numbers Contreras has in June [29.1 IP, 19 H, 4 BB, 21 SO, 2.15 ERA], provided he posts a near 4.00 ERA the rest of the season, would be worth $5, $6 mill. on the open market? Other teams may be scared off by Jose. Yet the sox know what they can get with him and would probably offer the best deal for him. As far as injury risk goes, Jose made 30 starts in each of his 4 seasons prior to hurting his achilles last year. He'd be a good bet to throw 180 IP, and an ERA near 4.00. Not great. Yet not bad.

 

The alternative--trading for an elite SP--would likely cost a big chunk of the sox top prospects--say 4. Few guys out there fit the Peavy trade mold--an elite SP locked up for 3-4 years. Halladay only would be locked up for a year, and the sox would have to outbid other teams in years and dollars when he hits free agency. That's not what the sox do best. They have only done that with players who have had some loyalty to the org. [MB, PK, Dye, Freddy Garcia--to Ozzie]

 

Would one of the sox prospects be ready around this time next year? Probably. One of Poreda, Hudson, or Ely should be able to help the sox in 2010. Most "aces" are of the home grown variety, unless a team overspends in terms of dollars or talent. The sox probably need to "grow" their own, and the results with Floyd and Danks is pretty good. Not to mention the pitchers the sox have drafted in recent years. Ozzie and Company also seem to think Richard can be a solid SP like Danks and Floyd, who can post a sub 4.00 ERA in 2010. That would probably make Richard the sox #4 SP. And they would then have 3 LHSP's in the rotation. Then the sox should have another RHP in the rotation. Jose, as the #5 starter, would be a good fit, IMO.

[GreatScott82]

I wouldn't mind going after Lackey, even though he is having a rough year. If we could get him on a somewhat cheap 2 year contract, I'd love that. Also, if he does wind up having a rough overall season, he might prefer to take a short term offer to get his value back up, as well as the economy to hopefully get in a better place so he can get a big contract. He's got a bit of an injury concern with him though.

 

I wouldn't mind Lackey either. Like a 1 year deal with tons of incentives and a mutual option for a second year. He would be a perfect #5 starter.

 

As far as solidifying the top of the rotation, i still believe KW wants that right handed ace. I would definitley go after Holiday but only if he signs an extension. I wouldn't want to give up Poreda and Richard for 1.5 years of services. If you could do a trade and have him sign an extension (similar to the Freddy Garcia deal) i'm all for it!

 

I'd much rather give up a little more and bring in Haren. Apparently the Angels already placed an offer for Haren and the AZ rejected it. Byrnes has said "he would need to be blown away" to deal away their team's ace. What would your mega package be?

 

 

[BearSox]

If we offer to take Eric Byrnes off their hands, they would likely be a lot more willingly to trade Haren, considering how much they want to get rid of Byrnes' contract. However, considering Byrnes will be on the DL for the next 1-2 months, he won't be traded. So if we want Haren, it's gotta be a great group of prospects.

 

Obviously a package would start off with Poreda and Allen. They really could use a 1B prospect, and Brandon Allen would be a great fit since he's MLB ready, or damn close to it. He'd probably be their best option at 1B right now. They'd probably want more pitching as well, and John Ely would be a decent pitching prospect to get.

 

So far it's Poreda, Richard, Allen, and Ely. Good package, but we'd probably have to include one more player. If they plan on trading Felipe Lopez, maybe they'd be interested in Chris Getz. Or, they seem to like athletic, toolsy OF, so John Shelby could make sense.

[Balta1701]

I sincerely doubt Arizona would do anything without asking for Beckham.

 

And Frankly, I don't care how good a pitcher is, I'm not giving up 4 of these guys for 1. The only way that makes sense is if you've got the salary constraints of the Yankees. If you can spend $15 million a player every time a hole comes open anywhere, then you can do trades like that. Otherwise, you need to have young guys to work in. The D-Backs were able to do that trade originally because they already had a ton of young guys (Upton, Drew, Young, etc.) that they could work in, and they didn't part with any of their real big young talent.

[chisoxfan09]

I think Haren would be the only stud I would be willing to mortgage some of the farm for. I could see a 5 for 1 for him but without Beckham. Just to repeat the same thing from a prior post Oakland got 6 prospects for him in 2007 but I thnk any 5 prospects we could put in a package would be at least comparable or better than the 6 Arizona gave up for Haren. Of the 4 already mentioned 3 are already MLB ready (Poreda/Richard/Allen) and the other 2 could come out of a pool. Who knows what would happen to their development but none of the 6 Oakland got really jump out at me. But these are totally different times.

[chisoxfan09]

I also don't feel very strongly about using RH pitchers in their twighlight years, I.E. Contreras, Garcia, Colon. Would be nice to pick up a frontline starter. The only one I would not even mind picking up the tab for is Pedro Martinez for one year if it is a filler until 2011. At that point a couple of our RH prospetcs (Shirek/Hudson) should be ready. Or as Cubano has brought up and I have also mentioned Yadel Marti may be an option depending on how MLB read he is.

Edited July 1, 2009 by chisoxfan09

[Balta1701]

I also don't feel very strongly about using RH pitchers in their twighlight years, I.E. Contreras, Garcia, Colon. Would be nice to pick up a frontline starter. The only one I would not even mind picking up the tab for is Pedro Martinez for one year if it is a filler until 2011. At that point a couple of our RH prospetcs (Shirek/Hudson) should be ready. Or as Cubano has brought up and I have also mentioned Yadel Marti may be an option depending on how MLB read he is.

Pedro was reportedly throwing about 85 mph in a recent throwing session and is still asking for a lot more money than any team is even close to giving him.

[chisoxfan09]

Pedro was reportedly throwing about 85 mph in a recent throwing session and is still asking for a lot more money than any team is even close to giving him.

 

HMM Balta, read an MLBTR quote that he got into the low 90's with the fastball. No thanks then. Going to dig out that link if I can find it.

[chisoxfan09]

Pedro was reportedly throwing about 85 mph in a recent throwing session and is still asking for a lot more money than any team is even close to giving him.

 

Here it is Balta, referenced on MLBTR but from Nick Cafardo (Boston paper). It say 94 MPH. SO not sure if that is accurate or not but if so then 1 year may not be bad. Or the rest of 2009/2010. Think we passed on him due to cost.

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/reds...rays_eye_p.html

 

PS, don't see either the Rays or Cubs picking him up.

[Balta1701]

Here's my 85 mph reference; came from the LATimes sport section 2 weekends ago. You at least gotta give me that they're better than MLBTradeRumors.

The Angels have "no interest" in pitcher Pedro Martinez, General Manager Tony Reagins said Sunday.

 

Reagins said the Angels chose not to pursue Martinez for baseball reasons and not financial ones.

 

The Angels scouted Martinez at his workout last week in the Dominican Republic. The Dodgers did not scout the workout, and Manager Joe Torre said that the team has not discussed Martinez since spring training.

 

Reagins did not elaborate on his comments, but a baseball source familiar with reports from the workout said Martinez's fastball was clocked most often in the 85-mph range.

 

The source, who declined to be identified because he was not authorized to publicly discuss scouting reports, said Martinez had good arm speed and quality off-speed pitches but said teams would have to consider whether he could pitch effectively at that velocity or whether he might regain enough velocity in time to help this season.

If he could pop it at 90 mph even, I think someone would have given him the $2.5 million it would take to sign him for the rest of the season already.

[chisoxfan09]

Here's my 85 mph reference; came from the LATimes sport section 2 weekends ago. You at least gotta give me that they're better than MLBTradeRumors.

If he could pop it at 90 mph even, I think someone would have given him the $2.5 million it would take to sign him for the rest of the season already.

Yeah I hear ya, but MLBTR quoted Nick Cafardo who has seemed to be reliable in prior posts. But you are right if his stuff was really that good he would have been picked up but not at his outrageous price. Maybe we pass on him and roll the dice with Contreras and Richard/Poreda. How do you feel about Poreda being given a shot at starting later this year after the ASB?

[ILMOU]

The team is improving and the future is bright, but I want to win now.

 

Just after the ASB, in about three to four weeks, the picture should become a bit clearer for teams like the Sox and the Jays. I'm thinking we're buyers, they're sellers.

 

They probably regret the Rios deal hugely and would love to get rid of it. We might also have a clearer picture of whether Q will be able to contribute this year, or should be shut down. Let's say the news is bad, and he'll need at least another 6-8 weeks of rehab or will be shut down completely. Let's say Fields looks pretty decent between now and then.

 

We can still win it all, this year and next. And we'd still be well set up for the longer term.

 

So, maybe I was sniffing too much glue last night, but I came up with the following. The mother of all Sox trades.

 

The Anti-White Flag Trade:

 

Sox get:

Halladay

Rolen

Rios

$15-20M cash

 

Jays get:

Fields

Poreda

Jordan Danks

Dexter Carter

Carlos Torres

Cook OR Gartrell

Ely

Upchurch

Morel

Nathan Jones OR Santos Rodriguez

 

Or a similar package.

 

Even with the cash payment to the Sox, the Jays get over $80M in payroll off their books, get rid of the Rios deal, and get a bevy of prospects. Fields gets a change of scenery and a chance to play every day. Poreda will get a better look immediately. They'll market it as their "Herschel Walker" trade.

 

The cash pays for the salaries of all three Jays for the remainder of this year, essentially, so current payroll is unchanged. The three have a total salary of $36.5M for 2010. This is countered by the 39.5M coming off the Sox books at season's end (Count, JD, Thome, Dotel) including the $1M buyout on JD. Only Rios remains after 2010. More on that later.

 

Yes, it's a king's ransom for 1 and a half years of Roy and Scott, but the vast improvement in our farm system/drafting makes something like this possible.

 

We still have Hudson, Shirek, Omogrosso as starter prospects for 2011, or a touch sooner. Egbert replaces Torres as the emergency AAA callup starter.

 

The Sox win the World Series this season and next.

 

Our matchup with the current best team in baseball, the Boston Red Sox:

 

Rotation:

Halladay v. Beckett

Buehrle v. Lester

Floyd v. Wakefield

Danks v. Smoltz

Contreras v. Penny or Dice K (if he gets healthy)

 

Bullpen:

Jenks v. Papelbon

Thornton v. Okajima

Linebrink v. Bard

Dotel v. Saito

Carrasco v. Delcarmen

Richard v. Masterson

 

By position (or function in the case of outfielders):

 

Konerko v. Youkilis

Beckham (at 2B) v. Pedroia

Lexi v. Lugo (or Lowrie, though he may be out for this season)

Rolen v. Lowell

AJP v. Varitek

JD v. Bay

Pods v. Ellsbury

Rios v. Drew

Thome v. Ortiz

 

Our lineup:

 

Pods

Lexi

JD

Thome

Paulie

Rolen

AJP

Beckham

Rios

 

Theirs:

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Bay

Ortiz

Youk

Drew

Lowell

Varitek

SS

 

I like theirs better at the top, ours better at the bottom, very close in the middle. I especially like our 4 man playoff rotation matchups, feeling that we have a definite advantage with our game 3 and game 4 starters. I give a VERY slight nod to their bullpen, though they blew a 10-1 lead in two innings last night.

 

They have better outfield defense, but ours will be improved with Rios replacing Q. Our infield D will solidify greatly with the steady veteran hand of Rolen at 3B alongside Lexi on the left side, and Beckham moves to his best defensive position.

 

Their bench is more experienced with Kotsay and Baldelli, but I like BA, Nix and Getz on our side. If Q does recover, our outfield is crowded, but our options are many. For instance, if Pods gets hurt or otherwise tanks, Rios could leadoff.

 

IMO, the starting pitching makes us the better team, and the better team in the playoffs. Our rotation is also much younger, with much better injury histories, which is key.

 

In 2010, we have mostly the same team, with Q replacing JD in the OF. Richard replaces Contreras in the rotation, and possibly gets supplanted by Hudson mid-season. Pods will be signed to a one year deal with options for a 2nd, pending performance met, and NO NTC, because he could yet become a valuable trading chip if Mitchell is ready by this time next year. I anticipate some lineup movement as well:

 

LF Pods (possibly Mitchell eventually, but probably have Rios lead off during transition)

2B Beckham

RF Q

DH Unknown left hander with power, possibly Thome cheap. Preferably Dunn in trade*!

1B Paulie

3B Rolen

SS Lexi

C AJP

CF Rios

 

With 2010 pay increases to Danks, Jenks and a few others inevitable, plus a few contract escalations, payroll should sit between $105-110M, before the DH is added.

 

* I want the ’10 DH to be Adam Dunn, getting him to agree to a $12M options for 2011-2012 (he gets $10M in 2010, before becoming a free agent) so we have him for two+ years. Brandon Allen will be a key piece of that trade. I can’t see the Nats NOT trading him, considering that they have to take a longer view in their situation, and only have him controlled through next season.

 

In 2011, Mitchell, Dayan and Flowers and/or Phegley join the roster, replacing Pods, Rolen and AJP, and Halladay and PK come off the books, so KW gets huge payroll flexibility once again. Dunn moves to 1B, or stays at DH if 1B is all Dayan can play, in which case we acquire a 3B, or see what the farm has to offer. Roy becomes a FA, but may give us a hometown discount after back-to-back championships. Or we decide to sign a younger ace. Or we decide that Danks, Floyd, MB, Richard, Hudson/Shirek is plenty good, and spend the money elsewhere.

 

Rios $5.9M this year together with $9.7M in ’10 isn’t too bad. The big caveat is the $50M that will still be owed to him from 2011-2014 (including the $1M buyout for 2015). Still, not TOO much of an albatross – a better player than Fukudome, for about the same price.

 

With approximate payrolls of $100M in ’09, 115-120M in ’10, and somewhere around $110M in 2011, we could have a dynasty. I’m somewhat confident that the vast improvement in our drafting and player development will be able to prep new prospects for 2012 and beyond, after the virtual raping that I’ve proposed here.

 

Back to the model glue.

 

Flame away.

 

 

 

 

[Balta1701]

Sox get:

Halladay

Rolen

Rios

$15-20M cash

 

Jays get:

Fields

Poreda

Jordan Danks

Dexter Carter

Carlos Torres

Cook OR Gartrell

Ely

Upchurch

Morel

Nathan Jones OR Santos Rodriguez

You just wrote a 13 player, 2 team deal.

 

Wow.

[knightni]

I'd say put down the X-Box, but I think trades are limited to 5 on each side in games.

[Buehrle>Wood]

stuff

 

Greatest post ever.

[southsider2k5]

You just wrote a 13 player, 2 team deal.

 

Wow.

 

Did Hawk move into the front office again?

[ILMOU]

You just wrote a 13 player, 2 team deal.

 

Wow.

 

Yes. I need a life.

 

[chisoxfan09]

Yes. I need a life.

Stan, are you workin today?

[chisoxfan09]

I hope to write that kind of research by post 1000 or so. Right now it is basic trades for me but with analysis.

Edited July 1, 2009 by chisoxfan09

[ILMOU]

Stan, are you workin today?

 

Not working too much today, but I mostly wrote that baby last night. Then edited it this morning after sobering up.

 

The original version had us moving moving Rios and cash on to the Cardinals for Ankiel - then turning Ankiel back into a pitcher when Q returned to the lineup.

[ILMOU]

Did Hawk move into the front office again?

 

Hilarious.

 

Hawk was like the mediocre holdem' player at a table with Helmuth, Chan, Negreanu etc. He had the gambler mentality, but his reasoning was not good.

 

[chisoxfan09]

First off, no way we can afford to trade both of Poreda and Hudson. You do that and you completely void this team of any legit pitching prospect. We'd have some interesting guys in Carter, Shirek, Ely, Harrel, etc., but none of them compare to Hudson at this point.

 

However, I think Poreda, Richard, Carter or Ely, and Allen would easily get the deal done for Halladay, but that's only if the Jays are really willingly to deal Halladay. And if they do decide to move Halladay, it'll be in the offseason... In the trade, they'd be getting 2 very good prospects in Allen and Poreda, a decent pitcher in Richard, and a decent spect with Carter or Ely. However, I only make the trade if we have every intention of extending Halladay for another 3-4 years.

 

IMO, with Halladay's make up, we can expect another at least 3-4 good to great years out of him and probably some more decent ones when he is passed 35 or 36.

 

A core rotation of Halladay, Buehrle, Floyd, and Danks would be awesome.

 

I am gonna see how Harden and Webb progress in September and then bring up the righty situation again. I think Contreras should do ok for the rest of the year. Good stretch now but if he can give us 6-7 innings it gives the other guys in the pen (especially Poreda) the opportunity to grow.

[chisoxfan09]

I am gonna see how Harden and Webb progress in September and then bring up the righty situation again. I think Contreras should do ok for the rest of the year. Good stretch now but if he can give us 6-7 innings it gives the other guys in the pen (especially Poreda) the opportunity to grow.

 

I know I said I would wait to post again but I like the idea of going after Webb and trying to nail him down to a 2 year extension until the end of 2012. That give us a solid core through the 4 position. I know Buerhle has said he want to hang it up after 2012 but you never know. Clemens (I know I know), Pettite, and others all came back from the retirement game to put in extra seasons. Plus Buerhle will only be 33 at the time. I think the DBacks are gonna blow up their popcicle stand this summer and we should take advantage.

 

1. Webb

2. Buerhle

3. Danks

4. Floyd

5. Richard/Poreda or who would be left from this trade.

[chisoxfan09]

Forget about Harden, he is starting to lose his stuff.