Remember the 90's and people having to split up their extremely valuable Beanie Baby collections in divorce court?

 

Remember the 90's and people having to split up their extremely valuable Beanie Baby collections in divorce court?

 

 

I still see click-bait articles pop up every once in a while where the title will be something like "These old toys could be worth $1000s!" Then they use ebay listings as an example even though they are only showing the asking price, not what the item actually sold for. If it sold at all.

The question is how far will this go. Bitcoin isn't based on anything but perceived value, and that value is being generated by demand. There's a huge amount of demand, but it's really just beginning and bitcoins acceptance, especially globally, is still growing.

 

I find it hard to believe that suddenly, tomorrow, everyone just stops believing that bitcoin is something valuable. $16k valuable? i dunno, but there's really no rhyme or reason here. It could drop or it could rise to a million per. Anyone claiming to know is just guessing.

 

Jenks,

 

My thought is that the big test will be if large investors try to pull actual money out. If there is any problem getting actual currency from the exchange it could immediately create a crisis in terms of confidence in bitcoin.

If you own a bitcoin right now, why would you even want to spend it? You could by $12,000 worth of things yesterday, or you could $18,000 worth of things with the same bitcoin today.

If you own a bitcoin right now, why would you even want to spend it? You could by $12,000 worth of things yesterday, or you could $18,000 worth of things with the same bitcoin today.

 

They said my tulips would be worth millions...

It's also an effect of having a deflationary currency. The algorithm makes each bitcoin harder to mine than the last, and there's a hard limit to how many can ever exist including the ones that just get irretrievably lost. So it encourages hording.

If you own a bitcoin right now, why would you even want to spend it? You could by $12,000 worth of things yesterday, or you could $18,000 worth of things with the same bitcoin today.

 

Because it could be worthless tomorrow.

They said my tulips would be worth millions...

 

Because it could be worthless tomorrow.

 

Sure, but you could have also said that at $10, $100, $1000, $5k

 

I don't disagree that it's a speculative bubble at all, I'm saying it's completely worthless as a currency precisely because of that.

Sure, but you could have also said that at $10, $100, $1000, $5k

 

I don't disagree that it's a speculative bubble at all, I'm saying it's completely worthless as a currency precisely because of that.

 

Yeah, this is my problem with it. Why on earth would you ever trade something that could be worth double the next day? Conversely why would you hold onto something that could be worthless?

 

It's a speculative asset but it's not a currency. And that's fine. But also, the decentralized nature of the currency was supposed to make it more reliable and less prone to the whims of poor policy. Well where is that

If you own a bitcoin right now, why would you even want to spend it? You could by $12,000 worth of things yesterday, or you could $18,000 worth of things with the same bitcoin today.

 

Oh you said the same thing.

Jenks,

 

My thought is that the big test will be if large investors try to pull actual money out. If there is any problem getting actual currency from the exchange it could immediately create a crisis in terms of confidence in bitcoin.

I think thats exactly whats going to happen. Its going to be a mad rush once the big guys pull out.

CBOE bitcoin futures will start trading Monday. They will be cash settled, which isn't a big surprise.

 

I can't wait for the puts.

 

http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-...-specifications

Bitcoin's run is so full of open air that it makes the 2000 tech bubble look like bedrock.

 

Also, it's not a currency.

 

CBOE bitcoin futures will start trading Monday. They will be cash settled, which isn't a big surprise.

 

I can't wait for the puts.

 

http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-...-specifications

 

Would futures trading on something like bitcoin stabilize prices in the same way futures trading helps smooth out something like commodities?

I get trading futures on orange juice concentrate or oil or whatever. Those are commodities that will actually be produced and consumed at some future point.

 

What is bitcoin futures trading on? What the price of a bitcoin will be in X time period? This seems like insanity to me.

Bitcoin's run is so full of open air that it makes the 2000 tech bubble look like bedrock.

 

Also, it's not a currency.

It's a "currency" in that you can spend it, and its based on blockchain. But its the vaporware of currency

I get trading futures on orange juice concentrate or oil or whatever. Those are commodities that will actually be produced and consumed at some future point.

 

What is bitcoin futures trading on? What the price of a bitcoin will be in X time period? This seems like insanity to me.

 

Not all futures trading is settled with the underlying. For example, SP futures are cash settled.

 

But to answer, yes, the idea that is that if you are trading March Bitcoin futures you are betting on what the price of Bitcoin itself will be in March.

Would futures trading on something like bitcoin stabilize prices in the same way futures trading helps smooth out something like commodities?

 

It would have more of an effect if there was a direct delivery process, but seeing as this is cash settled, I am going to guess there is no real volatility difference. It is such an odd product because the market is fixed and closed. All other currencies are based on money supplies which can be altered in real time by the governments that issue them. Bitcoin is a fixed market that can only expand to a fixed point by a fixed time.

It would have more of an effect if there was a direct delivery process, but seeing as this is cash settled, I am going to guess there is no real volatility difference. It is such an odd product because the market is fixed and closed. All other currencies are based on money supplies which can be altered in real time by the governments that issue them. Bitcoin is a fixed market that can only expand to a fixed point by a fixed time.

 

I wonder how stable the mining rate has been. It inherently declines--every new bitcoin is harder to mine than the last--but people add more and more processing power to the overall bitcoin network. Googling only turns up a bunch of bitcoin profitability calculators and not a historical mining rate trend.

It's a "currency" in that you can spend it, and its based on blockchain. But its the vaporware of currency

Except currency is backed by something. Like a government or an asset. Bitcoin is basically a coupon created by someone to generate buying leverage without ever having to cash it in. It only meets half the requirement of a currency.

 

I wonder how stable the mining rate has been. It inherently declines--every new bitcoin is harder to mine than the last--but people add more and more processing power to the overall bitcoin network. Googling only turns up a bunch of bitcoin profitability calculators and not a historical mining rate trend.

 

I was wondering the same thing. Sounds like that is all proprietary data.

My litecoins are doing well. Run, run, run!

My litecoins are doing well. Run, run, run!

Yeah, might as well put money on every type at this point and let it run. Percentages are ridiculous.

Gotta lower that top tax bracket to help the wealthy in blue states you're trying to hammer. Screw everyone else, I guess.