Theories? Why do the White Sox fade in Aug/Sept. every year?

[LittleHurt05]

When you look at the years though...in 2004, the Sox were without their 2 biggest bats for the full 2nd half of the year. 2005, check. 2007...they were a bad team the full year, and Hell, they might have been better in September than they were at any other point that yera. 2008, above .500.

 

Basically, it comes down, so far, to 2006 and 2009 being the years where they were unusually bad in the 2nd half.

 

In 2009, they were 45-43 in the 1st half, then 34-40 in the 2nd half. Thats only 4 full games worse, so yeah they played worse, but its not like they were a great team that suddenly collpased like in 2006.

[Balta1701]

You can't just make injury excuses for bad 2nd halves. Every team has injuries including the Twins with their all star Morneau.

Gimme a break on that one. The 2004 Sox losing Thomas and Ordonez is like the 2010 Twins losing Mauer and Morneau. The Sox might have had a shot to survive one of those 2...they had other guys, Lee and Konerko in the lineup who could pick up some of the slack, but there's zero teams in baseball where losing their 2 best players wouldn't murder them. Yankees losing ARod and Tex? Rays losing Longoria and Price? Hamilton and Guerrero for the Rangers? Pujols and Holliday? Votto and (I guess) Phillips?

[caulfield12]

I'm not talking about the specific OVERALL won/loss record anymore.

 

How can we consistently play the Twins better, year after year, in the first half of the season, then collapse against them in the second half?

 

2003=2-5 (including the final five in a row)

2004=2-7

2006=4-8

2007=4-2 (you can argue this is the one time when the pressure was totally off, along with 2001)

2008=1-6

2009=1-8

2010=2-5

 

So looking at 6/7 years, we're 16-41 against the Twins.

 

If you include 2005 (7-6, not exactly amazing), it's 23-47.

 

Basically over that entire time span, we're winning 1 out of every 3 games played after the Break. Yet we're five games OVER .500 before it.

Edited August 17, 2010 by caulfield12

[BigSqwert]

Gimme a break on that one. The 2004 Sox losing Thomas and Ordonez is like the 2010 Twins losing Mauer and Morneau. The Sox might have had a shot to survive one of those 2...they had other guys, Lee and Konerko in the lineup who could pick up some of the slack, but there's zero teams in baseball where losing their 2 best players wouldn't murder them. Yankees losing ARod and Tex? Rays losing Longoria and Price? Hamilton and Guerrero for the Rangers? Pujols and Holliday? Votto and (I guess) Phillips?

Konerko still had 41 HRs, Crede had 21, Valentin had 30 and El Caballo had 31. It's not like we were all of a sudden the 2010 Mariners.

 

EDIT: And Rowand had 24 HRs. That team was stacked even without Thomas and Maggs.

Edited August 17, 2010 by BigSqwert

[witesoxfan]

When you look at the years though...in 2004, the Sox were without their 2 biggest bats for the full 2nd half of the year. 2005, check. 2007...they were a bad team the full year, and Hell, they might have been better in September than they were at any other point that yera. 2008, above .500.

 

Basically, it comes down, so far, to 2006 and 2009 being the years where they were unusually bad in the 2nd half.

 

The 2004 White Sox also had Freddy Garcia for the second half and Jose Contreras from August on. Garcia wasn't anything special and Contreras was bad, however, Loaiza had put up an ERA of 6.04 in his final 11 starts with the Sox, and wound up pitching to the tune of about an ERA of 8.50 with the Yankees. They'd also reacquired Carl Everett, Rowand and Uribe had great years, Lee had his best season as a member of the Sox, Konerko put together a great, full season for the first time in his career, Gload was great...I won't argue that they weren't banged up or anything to nature, just that, even without Thomas or Ordonez, they still weren't a bad team.

 

The 2007 White Sox may have also played their best baseball in September, but they also played their worst baseball in August. During that time frame, they went 9-20. And, just because they were a bad team doesn't mean you can automatically discount their contribution to the White Sox ineptitude during the second half of seasons over the past 6 years. If you can do that, then I can discount the 2005 White Sox second half record simply because they were a good team.

 

Looking further into the 2005 season, the Sox were a worse team in the second half than they were in the first half by 110 points (57-29 for a .663, 42-34 for a .553). Perhaps they played over their head in the first half, but I'd also say that they played worse than their talent (or productivity) level in the second half. Again, just because they were a good team doesn't mean we can suddenly ignore that they were not nearly as good as they were early on.

 

Throughout Ozzie Guillen's tenure as manager, his teams have historically performed worse in the second half than they did in the first half. There is no evidence to the contrary.

Edited August 17, 2010 by witesoxfan

[caulfield12]

Gimme a break on that one. The 2004 Sox losing Thomas and Ordonez is like the 2010 Twins losing Mauer and Morneau. The Sox might have had a shot to survive one of those 2...they had other guys, Lee and Konerko in the lineup who could pick up some of the slack, but there's zero teams in baseball where losing their 2 best players wouldn't murder them. Yankees losing ARod and Tex? Rays losing Longoria and Price? Hamilton and Guerrero for the Rangers? Pujols and Holliday? Votto and (I guess) Phillips?

 

 

The White Sox were without Quentin, Crede, Contreras and Linebrink in 2008. They're without Peavy, now.

 

The Twins have been without Morneau for 2 years now...not to mention Nathan. Mauer's been hurt all season long, basically.

 

 

[BigSqwert]

The 2004 White Sox also had Freddy Garcia for the second half and Jose Contreras from August on. Garcia wasn't anything special and Contreras was bad, however, Loaiza had put up an ERA of 6.04 in his final 11 starts with the Sox, and wound up pitching to the tune of about an ERA of 8.50 with the Yankees. They'd also reacquired Carl Everett, Rowand and Uribe had great years, Lee had his best season as a member of the Sox, Konerko put together a great, full season for the first time in his career, Gload was great...I won't argue that they weren't banged up or anything to nature, just that, even without Thomas or Ordonez, they still weren't a bad team.

 

The 2007 White Sox may have also played their best baseball in September, but they also played their worst baseball in August. During that time frame, they went 9-20. And, just because they were a bad team doesn't mean you can automatically discount their contribution to the White Sox ineptitude during the second half of seasons over the past 6 years. If you can do that, then I can discount the 2005 White Sox second half record simply because they were a good team.

 

Looking further into the 2005 season, the Sox were a worse team in the second half than they were in the first half by 110 points (57-29 for a .663, 42-34 for a .553). Perhaps they played over their head in the first half, but I'd also say that they played worse than their talent (or productivity) level in the second half. Again, just because they were a good team doesn't mean we can suddenly ignore that they were not nearly as good as they were early on.

 

Throughout Ozzie Guillen's tenure as manager, his teams have historically performed worse in the second half than they did in the first half. There is no evidence to the contrary.

 

That is sig worthy.

 

[caulfield12]

The 2004 White Sox also had Freddy Garcia for the second half and Jose Contreras from August on. Garcia wasn't anything special and Contreras was bad, however, Loaiza had put up an ERA of 6.04 in his final 11 starts with the Sox, and wound up pitching to the tune of about an ERA of 8.50 with the Yankees. They'd also reacquired Carl Everett, Rowand and Uribe had great years, Lee had his best season as a member of the Sox, Konerko put together a great, full season for the first time in his career, Gload was great...I won't argue that they weren't banged up or anything to nature, just that, even without Thomas or Ordonez, they still weren't a bad team.

 

The 2007 White Sox may have also played their best baseball in September, but they also played their worst baseball in August. During that time frame, they went 9-20. And, just because they were a bad team doesn't mean you can automatically discount their contribution to the White Sox ineptitude during the second half of seasons over the past 6 years. If you can do that, then I can discount the 2005 White Sox second half record simply because they were a good team.

 

Looking further into the 2005 season, the Sox were a worse team in the second half than they were in the first half by 110 points (57-29 for a .663, 42-34 for a .553). Perhaps they played over their head in the first half, but I'd also say that they played worse than their talent (or productivity) level in the second half. Again, just because they were a good team doesn't mean we can suddenly ignore that they were not nearly as good as they were early on.

 

Throughout Ozzie Guillen's tenure as manager, his teams have historically performed worse in the second half than they did in the first half. There is no evidence to the contrary.

 

Going way back to 2000, that season 100% defined slipping and crawling into the playoffs and peaking early.

 

So that's the question, why?

 

What is it that allows other teams, usually the Twins, to peak in the last two months?

 

(Yes, I know, we "peaked" the last week of 2005 and into the playoffs, we "peaked" for 3 days in late September, 2008).

 

 

[witesoxfan]

The White Sox were without Quentin, Crede, Contreras and Linebrink in 2008. They're without Peavy, now.

 

The Twins have been without Morneau for 2 years now...(and) Mauer's been hurt all season long, basically.

 

Well now you are fabricating the Twins injury issues. Justin Morneau has played in 216 games and had 938 PAs over the past two seasons and has put up a .300/.390/.553/.944 line during that timeframe. He's been banged up but he hasn't fallen off the face of the planet.

 

Beyond that, Mauer had a contusion on his foot, and he's had shoulder soreness this year. It's not as if he's been fighting a hamstring strain all year. Hell, Brent Morel is playing with a torn labrum, and now he's not even going to have surgery on it. Unless you are a pitcher, it would appear as though you can play through shoulder soreness.

[BigSqwert]

Going way back to 2000, that season 100% defined slipping and crawling into the playoffs and peaking early.

 

So that's the question, why?

 

What is it that allows other teams, usually the Twins, to peak in the last two months?

 

(Yes, I know, we "peaked" the last week of 2005 and into the playoffs, we "peaked" for 3 days in late September, 2008).

I think it's been mentioned in a few scattered posts but our farm system has a lot to do with it. We rarely have guys that can come in and fill in for an injured player or add value when the September call ups arrive. I have to believe that is a big factor.

 

And is there something with our strength and conditioning program that doesn't prepare our guys for the long haul? Or are we acquiring players that tend to fade quicker? I don't know.

[witesoxfan]

Going way back to 2000, that season 100% defined slipping and crawling into the playoffs and peaking early.

 

So that's the question, why?

 

What is it that allows other teams, usually the Twins, to peak in the last two months?

 

(Yes, I know, we "peaked" the last week of 2005 and into the playoffs, we "peaked" for 3 days in late September, 2008).

 

In 2000, Ron Schueler threw together a patchwork starting rotation that stayed healthy and performed well for half a season, and began to fall apart in the second half. Meanwhile, the offense gelled early and it stayed relatively strong throughout the season. And Cleveland's rotation fell apart, as they had 13 guys start atleast 2 games for them (including Jamie Navarro, Bobby Witt, and Jason Bere).

[caulfield12]

Actually, I would love to hear (and it will never, even happen, I'm sure, maybe Cowley would try) Thome give his honest appraisal of why...from observing both clubhouses, as well as taking what Crede, Jon Rauch (obviously he has axe to grind against Ozzie) and Orlando Cabrera had to say.

 

Guerrier might be able to provide some insight about the difference between coming up as a pitcher in the Sox minor league system but having found a home in Minnesota with Anderson as his pitching coach. How are the philosophies different between the two organizations?

 

There HAS to be some type of insight to be gleaned from that...it's one of those "off the record" interviews we'll never be privy to, and I don't think Thome would ever disrespect the White Sox directly by providing fuel to the fire even when he has every right to feel vindicated (by his performance in 2010) the way we pushed him out the door.

 

Seems to be the type of article Phil Rogers might write.

[witesoxfan]

I think it's been mentioned in a few scattered posts but our farm system has a lot to do with it. We rarely have guys that can come in and fill in for an injured player or add value when the September call ups arrive. I have to believe that is a big factor.

 

And is there something with our strength and conditioning program that doesn't prepare our guys for the long haul? Or are we acquiring players that tend to fade quicker? I don't know.

 

Older players generally break down faster than younger players do, and it's something that's been highlighted since the banishment of all amphetamines. I don't think Jermaine Dye completely lost his ability to hit a fastball at the end of last season. I think he was simply worn down from the everyday grind of playing baseball for 5 months. It's something Ozzie thought he could help prevent by rotating his DHs, but it hasn't worked to this point, and the pitching has begun to fall off the tracks recently too.

[caulfield12]

In 2000, Ron Schueler threw together a patchwork starting rotation that stayed healthy and performed well for half a season, and began to fall apart in the second half. Meanwhile, the offense gelled early and it stayed relatively strong throughout the season. And Cleveland's rotation fell apart, as they had 13 guys start atleast 2 games for them (including Jamie Navarro, Bobby Witt, and Jason Bere).

 

 

We started Ginter, Garland, Barcelo, Beirne, Lowe, I remember that Eldred's hot start was one of the main reasons we got off so well in the middle months of that summer after the late April fight with the Tigers that seemed to turn everything around.

 

Sirotka, Baldwin and Parque would all see their Sox careers fall apart not so long after that season, in various ways.

 

Buehrle was one of the few bright spots. Fogg, too.

 

I remember we kept up Bradford and Josh Paul for the playoffs, those were two pretty controversial moves by Manuel that backfired.

[caulfield12]

Older players generally break down faster than younger players do, and it's something that's been highlighted since the banishment of all amphetamines. I don't think Jermaine Dye completely lost his ability to hit a fastball at the end of last season. I think he was simply worn down from the everyday grind of playing baseball for 5 months. It's something Ozzie thought he could help prevent by rotating his DHs, but it hasn't worked to this point, and the pitching has begun to fall off the tracks recently too.

 

 

So here we have another theory.

 

That Ozzie overplays the veterans and doesn't give them enough rest...and then he doesn't trust the younger/fresher/inexperienced players in the heat of a pennant race (although I've been surprised how quickly he's gone to Sale in critical situations, it perhaps more than anything is an indication of his lack of confidence in Pena and Linebrink).

 

Still, Gardenhire is accused of the same thing, of overplaying Nick Punto year after year when his offensive numbers are abysmal. Punto is Minnesota's version of Mark Kotsay, especially when he's playing 3B and putting up those OPS numbers.

 

 

[witesoxfan]

Not that I care for Nick Punto, but he's an incredible defender and has shown a propensity in the past to get on base at a pretty good rate. In years past, the Twins have gone into the season with Punto in a bench role with others starting ahead of him, and those players have performed poorly and Punto has been forced into action. This season, he's been injured, but it appears as though the Twins may be able to keep him in his bench role all season.

[Greg Hibbard]

We always play interleague in the first half....

 

Check out our AL only 1st half vs. AL only 2nd half since 2008. Obviously, in 2004-2007 the story is different, but over the last three years the AL only records are nearly identical splits.

 

2010: 37-38 / 16-15

2009: 33-37 / 34-40

2008: 42-35 / 35-33

 

Total: 112-110 (.505) / 85-88 (.491)

 

 

[BigSqwert]

We always play interleague in the first half....

 

Check out our AL only 1st half vs. AL only 2nd half since 2008. Obviously, in 2004-2007 the story is different, but over the last three years the AL only records are nearly identical splits.

 

2010: 37-38 / 16-15

2009: 33-37 / 34-40

2008: 42-35 / 35-33

 

Total: 112-110 (.505) / 85-88 (.491)

 

More proof that Ozzie just needs to go manage in the NL where his style is more effective.

[Greg Hibbard]

More proof that Ozzie just needs to go manage in the NL where his style is more effective.

 

No matter who was managing the White Sox, we would still kick the NL's ass, and our team would still be constructed with holes in it because our GM tells us we have to live with choices like Mark Kotsay for budgetary reasons.

[Steve9347]

Teams in the American League that lack a Designated Hitter tend to have issues with other American League ballclubs. We stomped the NL because we were on a level playing field with superior pitching and position players.

[witesoxfan]

The Sox were only good, not incredible, against the NL under Manuel. It's not surprising that they were able to beat AL teams more often when they had 6-7 guys in the lineup capable of hitting 20 homers, and 3-4 of those guys capable of hitting 30.

 

Being able to score runs in more than one manner is a good tool to have when utilized properly, whether it's taking extra bases or stealing bases or stringing hits together or hitting home runs. It's not good to construct your lineup to do solely that, because giving up outs to score runs is very, very inefficient and leads to low scoring offenses.

[Balta1701]

Teams in the American League that lack a Designated Hitter tend to have issues with other American League ballclubs. We stomped the NL because we were on a level playing field with superior pitching and position players.

There is currently 1 other AL team legitimately in the race for a pennant this season with crap as their DH. The Rangers, Yankees, Twins, and Red Sox all have OPS's out of their DH spot at around .800 or above (the lowest, the Yankees, is .796, and part of that is probably Teixeira's godawful start).

 

That team is the Rays. The Sox have a .703 OPS out of their DH spot, the Rays have a .701 OPS out of their DH spot. The Rays went 7-11 in interleague play.

[Greg Hibbard]

There is currently 1 other AL team legitimately in the race for a pennant this season with crap as their DH. The Rangers, Yankees, Twins, and Red Sox all have OPS's out of their DH spot at around .800 or above (the lowest, the Yankees, is .796, and part of that is probably Teixeira's godawful start).

 

That team is the Rays. The Sox have a .703 OPS out of their DH spot, the Rays have a .701 OPS out of their DH spot. The Rays went 7-11 in interleague play.

 

The Sox kicked the NL's ass in part because they played 4 series with three of the very worst teams in baseball.

[Balta1701]

The Sox kicked the NL's ass in part because they played 4 series with three of the very worst teams in baseball.

The Rays took 2/3 from Houston, 1/3 from the Marlins, 1/3 from the Braves, 1/3 from the Padres, and 1/3 from the Diamondbacks.

[Greg Hibbard]

Check this out:

 

August records, 2010:

 

NYY 6-9
TBR 8-7
BOS 8-7
TOR 9-5
BAL 10-5

MIN 10-4
CHW 7-8
DET 6-9
CLE 6-8
KCR 5-9

TEX 6-7
LAA 7-6
OAK 5-9
SEA 7-7

 

There is something to be said for the dog days argument. The Twins have been hot, winning all six of their home games against two pretty bad teams (oak and sea) and going .500 on the road. All the other competitors are slumping this month.