I thought I was the only one in this forum who was worried about inflation rubber-banding when the recovery strengthens.

 

Not at all.

Couple Egypt concerns

 

Relations with Israel. We pump about 1.2B worth of military aid to Egypt each year, I believe as part of the Camp David accords in 1978. If a government steps in that is anti-Israel, we may end up fighting all those US paid and made weapons.

 

Suez Canal. Nothing like controlling the flow of a lot of the world's oil.

What I find funny is that a lot of the protestors are pleading with the US to help them. So, they're getting rid of the pro-US regime, but want our intervention? How does that work?

What I find funny is that a lot of the protestors are pleading with the US to help them. So, they're getting rid of the pro-US regime, but want our intervention? How does that work?

The U.S. also takes public positions that democracy is good, and they're protesting in favor of democracy.

Suez Canal. Nothing like controlling the flow of a lot of the world's oil.

 

About 5% of the world's oil. Its not that big of a deal, most of it goes to Europe and honestly the more they go to Gazprom the better.

About 5% of the world's oil. Its not that big of a deal, most of it goes to Europe and honestly the more they go to Gazprom the better.

The United States currently produces 6% of the world's oil. The volume of oil you just called "not a big deal" is approximately equal to the entire amount of oil produced within the territories of the United States.

I find it interesting that, if the commodities price increases we're seeing are due to nations printing currency during these economic crises...the price increases have focused on goods which have had their production disrupted by recent weather events.

Yeah, because the media was all roses and sunshine during the Bush years.... GMAB.

WTF, he was talking about the Cold War. And yeah, the media kinda just blindly followed whatever the Bush administration said on Iraq and didn't really start questioning it until it was too late to matter.

WTF, he was talking about the Cold War. And yeah, the media kinda just blindly followed whatever the Bush administration said on Iraq and didn't really start questioning it until it was too late to matter.

The countries I really thought about on that were the ones nearby the 2 war zones, the countries north of Afghanistan like Uzbekistan, the countries around the Middle East that hosted our forces during the Iraq invasion.

The countries I really thought about on that were the ones nearby the 2 war zones, the countries north of Afghanistan like Uzbekistan, the countries around the Middle East that hosted our forces during the Iraq invasion.

The paragraph you posted about realpolitik is what I was saying before the mujahideen were brought up. Everyone acts shocked, SHOCKED! that the US gets its hands dirty sometimes and has a cynical approach to its own national interests. I'm not sure why. We fully expect other countries to do it, we don't expect them to roll over for us when our interests collide, and we damn sure don't expect us to do it for them. There's times when it goes overboard (overthrowing a leader, nearly overtly installing a puppet dictator to look out for our trading in bananas) but most of this stuff is kind of normal, and other countries that screech at us for looking out for ourselves are nakedly hypocritical and they know it, and they know we know they know it.

The United States currently produces 6% of the world's oil. The volume of oil you just called "not a big deal" is approximately equal to the entire amount of oil produced within the territories of the United States.

 

Is that oil just going to magically disappear because some outdated canal is closed for a couple of weeks or months? Boats are fine pieces of technology you know, they can traverse any type of water nowadays... not just canals!

 

People just want to assign some arbitrary strategic important to Egypt whatever way they can. Egypt is close enough to some relatively large oil producers so out of the laziness they figure they must be able to attribute this to the global energy trade. I dont buy it, nothing will change in the unlikely event anything happens to that canal. Not a big deal.

Is that oil just going to magically disappear because some outdated canal is closed for a couple of weeks or months? Boats are fine pieces of technology you know, they can traverse any type of water nowadays... not just canals!

Actually...yes.

 

If you were to hypothetically close the canal, then suddenly you'd have a period of time equal to the time for circumnavigating around Africa where there was no Saudi oil reaching the refineries in Europe.

 

Effectively, for a period of a week or so, yes it would totally disappear. Then it would re-appear slowly as refineries had to restart. The disruptions would last for months.

Link to data

 

There was a 6% reduction in annual wheat production last year compared to previous years.

 

There might be some bit of speculation going on in commodities price markets...but even without that, a 6% year over year production loss should produce an enormous price spike in that commodity.

 

(Edit: FSU = Former Soviet Union)

Actually...yes.

 

If you were to hypothetically close the canal, then suddenly you'd have a period of time equal to the time for circumnavigating around Africa where there was no Saudi oil reaching the refineries in Europe.

 

Effectively, for a period of a week or so, yes it would totally disappear. Then it would re-appear slowly as refineries had to restart. The disruptions would last for months.

You said the movement of crude through the Suez is about equal to the output of the United States. Alright, I'm guessing you remember when Hurricane Rita hit and shut down most of the refineries in Texas; nothing meaningful really came of it. Now you're saying I'm supposed to believe that delaying the flow of a similar volume of oil for at most 5 or 6 days is supposed to have some sort of noticeable impact. Gas might go up a quarter of a cent for a here and there wont be enough time for shipping costs to flow down and raise the price of consumer goods.

 

Nobody is going to look back on this and say "Remember when the Suez Canal was closed? That's really when the wheels came off." It's basically a non-issue unless you have an obscene amount of money invested in oil, and even the people who do aren't losing their minds over it.

You said the movement of crude through the Suez is about equal to the output of the United States. Alright, I'm guessing you remember when Hurricane Rita hit and shut down most of the refineries in Texas; nothing meaningful really came of it.

Depends on your definition of meaningful.

Honestly Balta, if all you have is a chart that does nothing to prove your point followed by a snide remark I'm just gonna consider this argument over. Keep on panicking though, the world is always on doom's doorstep no matter what.

Edited February 5, 201115 yr by DukeNukeEm

Honestly Balta, if all you have is a chart that does nothing to prove your point followed by a snide remark I'm just gonna consider this argument over. Keep on panicking though, the world is always on doom's doorstep no matter what.

Proves nothing? Katrina caused a $10-$15 spike in the long-term oil price trend that decayed after capacity came back online and when the government sold off 11 million barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve to cover the output loss.

 

Katrina was a major blow, that required draw-down of 15% of the SPR, still caused a $10 price spike per barrel, and it hit at a time of economic expansion and spare capacity, neither of which is the case now.

This suez canal argument is silly, that's a major trade route and the loss of it would have implications that the already delicate world economy would struggle through.

Anyone who wants to complain about a major executive branch f***-up, here you go.

Frank Wisner, President Barack Obama’s envoy to Cairo who infuriated the White House this weekend by urging Hosni Mubarak to remain President of Egypt, works for a New York and Washington law firm which works for the dictator’s own Egyptian government. … But there is nothing “personal” about Mr Wisner’s connections with the litigation firm Patton Boggs, which openly boasts that it advises “the Egyptian military, the Egyptian Economic Development Agency, and has handled arbitrations and litigation on the [Mubarak] government’s behalf in Europe and the US.”

 

Patton Boggs states that its attorneys “represent some of the leading Egyptian commercial families and their companies” and “have been involved in oil and gas and telecommunications infrastructure projects on their behalf.” One of its partners served as chairman of the US-Egyptian Chamber of Commerce promoting foreign investment in the Egyptian economy. The company has also managed contractor disputes in military-sales agreements arising under the US Foreign Military Sales Act. Washington gives around $1.3bn (£800m) a year to the Egyptian military.

Mubarak refusing to step down.

Mubarak refusing to step down.

Wanna bet that just pisses people off more?

Wanna bet that just pisses people off more?

I doubt that.

 

/sarcasm

Don't worry, we've heard your concerns! We're changing government! Hush, hush, we know that we were your concerns, but we'll change it! You'll see! Now run along home, and don't watch those nasty liars on TV!

El Baradei just tweeted:

 

Egypt will explode. Army must save the country now

Oh man. This is going to get ugly.