July 29, 201213 yr I didn't see the Tigers losing 4 of 5 after going 13-2, but that's baseball. They'll get hot again. The Sox will have a tough spot again. It's going to come down to the last 32 games, where they play 7 head-to-head. If one team goes 5-2 or better, they get the edge. To answer the question, 88-90 games. I just want the Sox to go 35-27 with at least 3 wins vs Detroit, and we're in.
July 29, 201213 yr QUOTE (flavum @ Jul 28, 2012 -> 09:31 PM) I didn't see the Tigers losing 4 of 5 after going 13-2, but that's baseball. They'll get hot again. The Sox will have a tough spot again. It's going to come down to the last 32 games, where they play 7 head-to-head. If one team goes 5-2 or better, they get the edge. To answer the question, 88-90 games. I just want the Sox to go 35-27 with at least 3 wins vs Detroit, and we're in. I think every team is good for an unrealistic winning streak for a season but those don't happen twice. Maybe a couple of their starters peaked last season. It will take one game victory than the 2nd place team to win the division. I still believe a WC berth is not an option.
July 29, 201213 yr Here is a rundown of what is left for both teams: Sox Home (32) LAA - 3* KC - 6 OAK - 3* NYY - 3* SEA - 3 MIN - 3 DET - 4* CLE - 3 TB - 4* (*17 vs winning teams) Away (30) TEX - 1* MIN - 6 TOR - 4* KC - 6 BAL - 4* DET - 3* LAA - 3* CLE - 3 (*15 vs winning teams) 7 vs Detroit Head to Head 34 Division Games (16 Home, 18 Away) 34-28 .550 rest of way for 89 wins --------------------------------------- Tigers Home (35) CLE - 6 NYY - 4* BAL - 3* TOR - 3* LAA - 3* CHI - 3* OAK - 3* MIN - 6 KC - 4 (*19 vs winning teams) Away (25) BOS - 3* TEX - 3* MIN - 3 KC - 6 LAA - 3* CHI - 4* CLE - 3 (*13 vs winning teams) 35 Division Games (19 Home, 16 Away) 35-25 .585 rest of way for 89 wins The Tigers have 13 straight to end the season vs KC and MIN. We really need to have a 5 game lead heading into that stretch (Sep 21). I could easily see them going 10-3 or 11-2 in that stretch, and we have LAA, TB, and CLE over the same period. I figure 7-6 would be doable for us, at worst 5-8, and at best maybe 9-4. The Sox only play 13 games vs equal or better teams (including LAA) the rest of the way, and the Tigers play 23 games vs equal or better teams. I know that is a relative comparison, but they definitely have an uphill battle before those final 13 games. We really need to take advantage before that stretch.
July 30, 201213 yr QUOTE (RME JICO @ Jul 29, 2012 -> 01:55 PM) The Tigers have 13 straight to end the season vs KC and MIN. We really need to have a 5 game lead heading into that stretch (Sep 21). I could easily see them going 10-3 or 11-2 in that stretch, and we have LAA, TB, and CLE over the same period. I figure 7-6 would be doable for us, at worst 5-8, and at best maybe 9-4. The Sox only play 13 games vs equal or better teams (including LAA) the rest of the way, and the Tigers play 23 games vs equal or better teams. I know that is a relative comparison, but they definitely have an uphill battle before those final 13 games. We really need to take advantage before that stretch. Admittedly Detroit has an advantage for those last 13 games, but it's a long way off and I don't think it will be quite as lopsided as you make it sound. The Sox have Cleveland and Tampa, both of which could be finishing out the string at that time. LAA might well have at least a wildcard sewn up by then. Who knows, the Sox or the Tigers might be in a lot different position by then, for better or worse. Anything can happen here, but I'll wait at least another month before I start worrying about the schedule for the last couple of weeks. Edited July 30, 201213 yr by balfanman
July 30, 201213 yr QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 30, 2012 -> 09:28 AM) That, and KC often seems to enjoy playing spoilers towards the end of the year. In 2005, the Indians were unbeatable, yet lost 3 straight to the lowly Royals & Rays. Saturday's game, Humber vs. Harrison, was a guaranteed L for the Sox, right? Detroit should do well in that last stretch of the season, but let's not just hand them an 11-2 record already, it's baseball, s*** happens.
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