Great read

 

http://www.southsidesox.com/2013/9/30/4785...d-jose-quintana

The team and person who Verducci modeled his theory after is Rick Peterson, who was then pitching coach for the A's. He went to the Mets and the Brewers thereafter and is now basically the head pitching instructor for the Baltimore Orioles. Verducci raved about how Peterson was handling top pitching prospect Dylan Bundy because they shut him down and this and that and whatever.

 

Of course, as we all know, Bundy needed Tommy John surgery come Spring Training.

Sale by himself has already beaten about 8 million theories by 10 billion people about why his arm would fall off right away.

Verducci effect has been disproved dozens of times now.

Verducci effect has been disproved dozens of times now.

 

The article says as much.

Anything based on innings pitched was always going to be doomed.

Anything based on innings pitched was always going to be doomed.

Correct. It kis too difficult to be accurate with the variability of pitches thrown in an inning. You can "ballpark" it but its never going to be reliable.

Correct. It kis too difficult to be accurate with the variability of pitches thrown in an inning. You can "ballpark" it but its never going to be reliable.

 

Pitches thrown is better, but even that is not as straightforward as it seems. Back when I pitched, a 35+ pitch inning pretty much meant I was going to be useless for the rest of that start. I always compared it to weightlifting. 10 sets of 10 is not the same as 5 sets of 20 is not the same as 1 set of 100.

 

I think we approach it the right way. We don't ignore the measurable stuff like game by game pitch counts and innings pitched, but there are subjective factors that play a big role as well. The end result is a pretty damn healthy staff and team.

Pitches thrown is better, but even that is not as straightforward as it seems. Back when I pitched, a 35+ pitch inning pretty much meant I was going to be useless for the rest of that start. I always compared it to weightlifting. 10 sets of 10 is not the same as 5 sets of 20 is not the same as 1 set of 100.

 

I think we approach it the right way. We don't ignore the measurable stuff like game by game pitch counts and innings pitched, but there are subjective factors that play a big role as well. The end result is a pretty damn healthy staff and team.

 

I would like to regress number of stressful innings (we'd ultimately define it multiple ways, but loosely 25 pitches in an inning) and significant pitching injuries. I think you will see far more correlation there than you will if comparing to innings pitched

The team and person who Verducci modeled his theory after is Rick Peterson, who was then pitching coach for the A's. He went to the Mets and the Brewers thereafter and is now basically the head pitching instructor for the Baltimore Orioles. Verducci raved about how Peterson was handling top pitching prospect Dylan Bundy because they shut him down and this and that and whatever.

 

Of course, as we all know, Bundy needed Tommy John surgery come Spring Training.

Same thing happened to the Rays with their top pitching prospect Taylor Guerrieri. They held him out of the Midwest League ASG, didn't allow him to play in the Future's Game, skipped a start here and there, and when they finally let him back on the mound - injured elbow and TJ.

I would like to regress number of stressful innings (we'd ultimately define it multiple ways, but loosely 25 pitches in an inning) and significant pitching injuries. I think you will see far more correlation there than you will if comparing to innings pitched

We have done basically that with young pitchers. There are still too many variables. Its more like jake was implying, alot relies on how the pitcher is handling it and when the signs of fatigue show. The number of pitches is a guidline however how the pitcher is handling is the end variable.

Anything based on innings pitched was always going to be doomed.

 

A Hector Santiago inning does not equal a Chris Sale inning.

A Hector Santiago inning does not equal a Chris Sale inning.

 

Sale 15.2 pitches per inning. Santiago 18.1.

 

In actual use, Chris Sale averages 76 pitches through 5 innings. Santiago averages 91.

And then there is luck and factors that are too complex to measure.