http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensa...&cyear=2014

 

Right now the Sox payroll for next year sits at $48M. Add in Abreu's deal and we go up to about $59M.

 

Coming into the season last year the payroll was at $118M. The Sox are getting the $25M TV contract.

 

If the Sox go back to the 2013 payroll, that's about $60M to play with. Sign the right guys and you'll sell tickets.

 

This is why I keep saying they should push for McCann and Ellsbury. Even if you gave both around $20M deals (which I think they are both more likely to get $16M - $18M) then you'd only be at $100M.

 

You could sign Quintana and possibly Santiago to extensions and fill in the rest of the roster with the left over money.

Remember, that $48 million we have committed does not include arbitration eligible and pre-arbitration players. Beckham, De Aza and Viciedo will all be in the $3-$4 million range so if you factor in all those players and possibly pick up Lindstrom's option we are already closer to $80 milion.

I'm guessing they extend Quintana and sign some short termers, there just aren't a lot of good fits for big time stuff. I put $80-90m

Edited October 21, 201312 yr by Eminor3rd

I'm guessing they extend Quintana and sign some short termers, there just a lot of good fits for big time stuff. I put $80-90m

 

That is a good call. Attendance was down for the 7th straight year, plus it will probably be down again next year. I would say $100 million, but I wouldn't be shocked if we come in far under that. Reality is if everyone thinks this is a rebuilding year anyway, there isn't a big onus to go out and spend.

I' think they'll bump payroll up short-term.

I' think they'll bump payroll up short-term.

 

Why and how? Our 2013 opening day payroll was like $118m or something

Edited October 21, 201312 yr by Eminor3rd

Why and how? Our 2013 opening day payroll was like $118m or something

 

I don't think they'll sit on all of extra $25M from the TV contract. They have money, they don't have enough good players.

I don't think they'll sit on all of extra $25M from the TV contract. They have money, they don't have enough good players.

 

You think they're going to add $50m+ in 2014 payroll over the offseason though?

You think they're going to add $50m+ in 2014 payroll over the offseason though?

That would be a stretch. That'd be like adding McCann and Ellsbury and then some small pieces.

That would be a stretch. That'd be like adding McCann and Ellsbury and then some small pieces.

But he's got a point on one thing...they saved over $10 million in salary this year on a team that started at $118 million. They're getting an extra $25 million in TV money. Including the Arb guys, we're at $80 million right now...so this team's cash position right now, after signing Abreu and assuming arb guys...is $50 million improved on last year.

That would be a stretch. That'd be like adding McCann and Ellsbury and then some small pieces.

 

And you best believe those two, Abreu, Sale, and Avi are putting people in seats.

But he's got a point on one thing...they saved over $10 million in salary this year on a team that started at $118 million. They're getting an extra $25 million in TV money. Including the Arb guys, we're at $80 million right now...so this team's cash position right now, after signing Abreu and assuming arb guys...is $50 million improved on last year.

 

Yeah but money doesn't disappear if they don't spend it.

You think they're going to add $50m+ in 2014 payroll over the offseason though?

 

I'd be surprised if they didn't match or come close to last year's number.

Yeah but money doesn't disappear if they don't spend it.

Doesn't mean it will ever be invested into players though.

That would be a stretch. That'd be like adding McCann and Ellsbury and then some small pieces.

 

Back to this

 

Even with the arbitrations and extensions and the Sox around $80M, let's say they offer McCann $80M/5 and Ellsbury $142M/7 (Crawford deal). That gets them to $116, which is about where they sat last year.

 

The big difference being that they're then set up to compete for a while and Dunn coming off the books the following year.

Doesn't mean it will ever be invested into players though.

 

Right, exactly. I'm just saying this is Jerry and his investors' money -- they aren't going to spend it just for the sake of spending it.

Right, exactly. I'm just saying this is Jerry and his investors' money -- they aren't going to spend it just for the sake of spending it.

But...if the opening day payroll comes in around $100 million...the people who have been screaming for years that the Sox are cheap will actually have a point for once. (That number chosen because they also get over $10 million to spend on kids next year...that would bring them roughly to the total amount they spent last year when you account for the trades...and they get the extra TV money on top of that).

But...if the opening day payroll comes in around $100 million...the people who have been screaming for years that the Sox are cheap will actually have a point for once. (That number chosen because they also get over $10 million to spend on kids next year...that would bring them roughly to the total amount they spent last year when you account for the trades...and they get the extra TV money on top of that).

 

What's the point though? That payroll was cut a year after one the highest payrolls in franchise history led to 99 losses and a decline in attendance for the 7th straight year? It would be ridiculous to expect payroll to increase immediately.

But he's got a point on one thing...they saved over $10 million in salary this year on a team that started at $118 million. They're getting an extra $25 million in TV money. Including the Arb guys, we're at $80 million right now...so this team's cash position right now, after signing Abreu and assuming arb guys...is $50 million improved on last year.

 

Also unsaid is that I bet this organization loses a ton of that other TV money through losses in attendance and advertising.

Don't forget the large increase in draft and international cap that the Sox have, that will take a good chunk of the extra TV money.

But...if the opening day payroll comes in around $100 million...the people who have been screaming for years that the Sox are cheap will actually have a point for once. (That number chosen because they also get over $10 million to spend on kids next year...that would bring them roughly to the total amount they spent last year when you account for the trades...and they get the extra TV money on top of that).

 

Only if they have numbers in front of them that the rest don't have that show somehow that their revenues didn't crater last year, and into this year.

Don't forget the large increase in draft and international cap that the Sox have, that will take a good chunk of the extra TV money.

 

I think I figured something in the area of an extra $10 million there alone.

Right, exactly. I'm just saying this is Jerry and his investors' money -- they aren't going to spend it just for the sake of spending it.

 

Nor should they. Adding a long term deal like McCann would be stupid if the organization doesn't think they can compete right away.

Only if they have numbers in front of them that the rest don't have that show somehow that their revenues didn't crater last year, and into this year.

Keep another thing in mind though...even if the revenues dropped substantially last year...they also slashed payroll midseason and saved over $10 million. ($2 million Thornton, $5 million Peavy, $4 million Rios, give or take).

Glad this thread was made because we do still have the capability of spending.

 

Not that either are likely in my mind, I am really starting to prefer Ellsbury over McCann. I hope we at least check in on him if he's 15-18 million yearly.

The only way it makes sense to me is if we can get fair value in a trade for De Aza.

 

The thing I keep coming back to is...I think De Aza is a 2 WAR player right now, give or take focus levels. Right now, Phegley is a 0 WAR player (although he could prove me wrong next year). That means to me the upgrade at the catcher's spot would give us almost twice as much bang-for-the-buck as an upgrade in the OF.

 

If De Aza can be moved for someone else who contributes somehow, then that makes sense.