Hahn's next move?

[Balta1701]

In what way is it above average? It's plenty talented, but it put up a league average ERA last year, which was 9th best in the league. They are replacing a guy who put up a 5.68 ERA, but also lost guys that put up ERAs of 3.56 and 3.79.

 

It's certainly talented and has room to grow into an above average pitching staff, but saying that it is above average at this point is wrong. Frankly, we have no idea what they'll get out of the 3-4-5 spots in the rotation. I would not be surprised if they are all good to great, nor would I be surprised if they all struggled badly. The difference between a pitching staff actually being above average and having the capability to be so is huge.

It put up a league average ERA in one of the best hitters parks in the league.

[witesoxfan]

It put up a league average ERA in one of the best hitters parks in the league.

 

Then, theoretically, they should have put up a better ERA on the road.

 

Home - 3.77 ERA

Road - 4.23 ERA

 

Now that homers have died down, I don't think it's a particularly great hitter's park. It certainly could be, but it's park factors were 100 and 101 last year.

[Jake]

Weaknesses in our lineup: taking pitches, left-handed bats, walks

 

Guys we are trying hardest to dump: Adam Dunn (3rd in the league in P/PA, 13th in BB%, LHH) and Alejandro De Aza (15th in P/PA, 7.4 BB% was second among Sox regulars, LHH). Also it appears Conor Gillaspie could be on the way out - was second on the team in BB% among regulars, though his P/PA was below our team average

[Eminor3rd]

Then, theoretically, they should have put up a better ERA on the road.

 

Home - 3.77 ERA

Road - 4.23 ERA

 

Now that homers have died down, I don't think it's a particularly great hitter's park. It certainly could be, but it's park factors were 100 and 101 last year.

 

2013 Park Factors: http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf...13&teamid=0

 

You should also factor in home-field advantage. I saw an interesting study that show a statistically significant effect for hitters having home field advantage, not sure if the same exists for pitchers.

[witesoxfan]

2013 Park Factors: http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf...13&teamid=0

 

You should also factor in home-field advantage. I saw an interesting study that show a statistically significant effect for hitters having home field advantage, not sure if the same exists for pitchers.

 

I assume it does, but I simply can't assume that the Sox pitching staff is anything other than average at this point. As I've indicated, it is certainly capable of being above average and a top 5 pitching staff, but Erik Johnson could put up an ERA/FIP of 3.25 or 4.75 and I wouldn't be surprised either way, and I feel the same way of both Danks and Paulino too.

Edited December 30, 2013 by witesoxfan

[Balta1701]

2013 Park Factors: http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf...13&teamid=0

 

You should also factor in home-field advantage. I saw an interesting study that show a statistically significant effect for hitters having home field advantage, not sure if the same exists for pitchers.

So one of hte best 3 HR hitting parks in the big leagues and in the top 6 for hitting parks overall? Sounds fairly accurate to me.

[Balta1701]

I assume it does, but I simply can't assume that the Sox pitching staff is anything other than average at this point. As I've indicated, it is certainly capable of being above average and a top 5 pitching staff, but Erik Johnson could put up an ERA/FIP of 3.25 or 4.75 and I wouldn't be surprised either way, and I feel the same way of both Danks and Paulino too.

Thus, it's floor barring an injury to 1 guy who I won't name is a staff in the middle of the pack in baseball and its ceiling is one of the top staffs in the league?

[witesoxfan]

Thus, it's floor barring an injury to 1 guy who I won't name is a staff in the middle of the pack in baseball and its ceiling is one of the top staffs in the league?

 

No, it's floor is a bad pitching staff. I see Sale as one of the best and Quintana as good, but those last 3 rotation spots can all be very bad. That's not including Donnie Veal, Nate Jones (who is an enigma of sorts), Lindstrom, Belisario, and whoever the last righty is. I could see all of those guys around 3.50-4.00, which is mediocre to below average for a reliever. I think the front 5 of the pen will be fine, but we simply don't know yet.

[Princess Dye]

Weaknesses in our lineup: taking pitches, left-handed bats, walks

 

Guys we are trying hardest to dump: Adam Dunn (3rd in the league in P/PA, 13th in BB%, LHH) and Alejandro De Aza (15th in P/PA, 7.4 BB% was second among Sox regulars, LHH). Also it appears Conor Gillaspie could be on the way out - was second on the team in BB% among regulars, though his P/PA was below our team average

 

 

Great point. ADA has his flaws but he definitely wasnt the biggest problem for this team. If it werent for Viciedo's still existing promise, ADA would be the one staying here. And looking back through his minor league numbers, he has always been a guy who has performed in basically the same way...even with the injury that derailed his Marlins time.

 

He stayed above-not-good even after that time. As far as on this team, I would have no problem with ADA returning and being lower in the lineup. Playing LF. That would be fine.

Edited December 30, 2013 by Jose Paniagua

[Eminor3rd]

I think one of the things we're overlooking about the Sox rotation is that a lot of what makes it "valuable" and "enviable" is that it is young and cost-controlled, not necessarily that it's full of elite arms. So whether or not you consider it to be among the best in the league depends on which question you're asking. As far as raw 2014 performance goes, it isn't elite.

[GREEDY]

Hahn's next move is to find someone to take Keppinger off his hands for his essentially his contract. Keppinger's splits vs LHP were really disappointing last season. I was initially very excited to be getting one of Maddon's swiss army knives, for only three million bucks a year, but it became pretty clear, very quickly, that there was a reason Jeff was available. Hard to platoon a right handed batter who plays poor defense with Davidson, Beckham, Ramirez, Semien.... so time for Keppinger to go.

 

I would like to hold onto DeAza, I think he is a nice platoon player to mix in with Viciedo & Garcia. No reason both need to face tough right handers, I'm sure it would be pretty easy to find 300 at bats for Alejandro. If he does have value and is moved, I think the Sox would be right back in the market for a similar player, so might as well keep DeAza.

 

The last "needs" are obviously a LH hitting catcher and then just throwing money at the rotation/bullpen if Hahn feels like it. I'd feel like the offseason was a win if Rick could add a young catcher with at least some upside, not just a placeholder.

[GreenSox]

The main reason I'd trade De Aza is that he could bring something in value back.

Also, his clowning on the base paths was not the ethic this team needed.

Keppinger won't. Not that I wouldn't try to get rid of him, but he could have a decent year with the bat and we'd be selling really low.

[Eminor3rd]

The main reason I'd trade De Aza is that he could bring something in value back.

 

This is the only reason to trade De Aza. There was no reason at all to trade him before we got Eaton, IMO.

[GREEDY]

Keppinger won't. Not that I wouldn't try to get rid of him, but he could have a decent year with the bat and we'd be selling really low.

 

Outside of multiple injuries to infielders, I just don't see where Keppinger's plate appearances would come from. I think you keep Gillaspie to "protect" Davidson from the Verlanders of the world and then use Garcia to mix and match with Beckham/Alexei. If you give Beckham one last chance, you don't need Keppinger taking playing time away from him... and if for some reason the team is in the mix for the division, AND the plethora of mediocre infielders continues to disappoint, it is easy to add a veteran like Keppinger at the deadline if necessary.

Edited December 30, 2013 by GREEDY

[GREEDY]

This is the only reason to trade De Aza. There was no reason at all to trade him before we got Eaton, IMO.

 

What kind of player do people think De Aza could net? Feels like a reliever to me... and for the most part those can just be purchased on the free agent market currently for roughly the same money you would be paying the player netted in return for Alejandro. Otherwise, I think De Aza brings back the same middling SP prospect that he would net at the deadline.

 

I really prefer holding Alejandro to mix and match with our right handed corner outfielders, at least until the deadline.

Edited December 30, 2013 by GREEDY

[The Ultimate Champion]

I love how our biggest weaknesses are all centered around walks and strikeouts and s***. I'd say it's a lack of making hard, solid contact with the baseball on a consistent basis. Our FO seems to believe this to be largely an issue with approach, and hopefully it is & Steverson is the ANSWER, but regardless, Dunn the donkey still isn't going to help us with anything unless we have a good enough team around him to absorb his many weaknesses. That was the whole point of bringing him in here in the first place. And he's not getting us anything good at the deadline & he's not going to be here when we're good again. So he's garbage, throw him out. Feed him to the dogs.

[The Ultimate Champion]

What kind of player do people think De Aza could net? Feels like a reliever to me... and for the most part those can just be purchased on the free agent market currently for roughly the same money you would be paying the player netted in return for Alejandro. Otherwise, I think De Aza brings back the same middling SP prospect that he would net at the deadline.

 

I really prefer holding Alejandro to mix and match with our right handed corner outfielders, at least until the deadline.

I think DeAza can bring back a live arm or two. But we'd probably have to target a team with depth that really needs position players, and we'd probably have to dip down into the minors a bit or else grab an MLB-ready guy who has failed/disappointed a bit. When it comes to pitching though I am comfortable with looking at mechanics & talent and making the deal. You can't polish a turd, but I feel that anyone who is worth the polishing effort could possibly be turned into something by this organization. I think there's definitely a talented starter out there we could take a shot on in a DeAza deal. Position players OTOH I don't trust us with & I can't see us getting anyone who really looked good at A+ or above last year out of DeAza.

[cabiness42]

I love how our biggest weaknesses are all centered around walks and strikeouts and s***. I'd say it's a lack of making hard, solid contact with the baseball on a consistent basis. Our FO seems to believe this to be largely an issue with approach, and hopefully it is & Steverson is the ANSWER, but regardless, Dunn the donkey still isn't going to help us with anything unless we have a good enough team around him to absorb his many weaknesses. That was the whole point of bringing him in here in the first place. And he's not getting us anything good at the deadline & he's not going to be here when we're good again. So he's garbage, throw him out. Feed him to the dogs.

 

The lack of making hard, solid contact with the baseball is directly related to swinging at too many pitches. When you swing at too many pitches, the overall quality of your contact goes down.

 

Yes, Dunn takes it the other way to the extreme, but you can never say his contact isn't hard and solid.

 

[GreenSox]

What kind of player do people think De Aza could net? Feels like a reliever to me... and for the most part those can just be purchased on the free agent market currently for roughly the same money you would be paying the player netted in return for Alejandro. Otherwise, I think De Aza brings back the same middling SP prospect that he would net at the deadline.

 

I really prefer holding Alejandro to mix and match with our right handed corner outfielders, at least until the deadline.

He could bring back a decent, but blocked, prospect. A lot of people have mentioned these 3rd catchers who are blocked at Atlanta, Tampa and New York...I don't know if any of those teams need De Aza, but he could bring back one of those guys. Now I'm not that excited about one of those 3rd catchers, because I think we got one in Rule 5, although he lacks upper minors experience.

 

We could also deal De Aza for a decent pitching prospect - probably bullpen.

Or we could get some players in the low minors, but with more upside....that would be fine with me. Maybe a July deal would be better, although I have hopes for moving Dunn and Keppinger in July.

[Balta1701]

He could bring back a decent, but blocked, prospect. A lot of people have mentioned these 3rd catchers who are blocked at Atlanta, Tampa and New York...I don't know if any of those teams need De Aza, but he could bring back one of those guys. Now I'm not that excited about one of those 3rd catchers, because I think we got one in Rule 5, although he lacks upper minors experience.

 

We could also deal De Aza for a decent pitching prospect - probably bullpen.

Or we could get some players in the low minors, but with more upside....that would be fine with me. Maybe a July deal would be better, although I have hopes for moving Dunn and Keppinger in July.

De Aza isn't likely to garner much in July because he's not likely to be playing much. Everyone in the OF needs at bats other than him to try to improve their game, and Robin doesn't have a track record of using his bench much. The only way De Aza looks like anything other than "backup OF" in July is if someone gets hurt and he moves back to being a starter as a consequence.

[GreenSox]

De Aza isn't likely to garner much in July because he's not likely to be playing much. Everyone in the OF needs at bats other than him to try to improve their game, and Robin doesn't have a track record of using his bench much. The only way De Aza looks like anything other than "backup OF" in July is if someone gets hurt and he moves back to being a starter as a consequence.

With De Aza, he has the best bench player he's ever had. He should use him. Keppinger should be used against lefties...if he shows he can recover and hit them again, we can move him perhaps. Ventura needs to up his game as well: stop all the mindless intentional walks, and situationally use some of these players.

Edited December 30, 2013 by GreenSox

[NorthSideSox72]

I'd still be surprised if the Sox didn't trade both an infielder (one of Beckham or Keppinger, maybe even Ramirez), and an outfielder (De Aza most likely, maybe Viciedo), before Opening Day. But people shouldn't expect we'll get a ton back. Just a blocked or quesitonable prospect, as mentioned by others. Still should be done though, IMO.

 

[Balta1701]

With De Aza, he has the best bench player he's ever had. He should use him. Keppinger should be used against lefties...if he shows he can recover and hit them again, we can move him perhaps. Ventura needs to up his game as well: stop all the mindless intentional walks, and situationally use some of these players.

Frankly, with this outfield, no he shouldn't.

 

Which guy under 25 shouldn't be out there every day?

 

Jordan Danks is actually the perfect backup OF for this team. He brings defense at all 3 positions and nothings going to be shaken up if he's on the bench. De Aza is exactly the opposite, he's a tolerable starter on a number of teams in the big leagues. He should get at bats...and this team has none to spare out there.

[GREEDY]

Frankly, with this outfield, no he shouldn't.

 

 

That is fair, and most likely correct; but if 2014 is strictly a "see what we got" dead/wasted year, then De Aza as well as Dunn, Alexei, Gillaspie and Keppinger have all GOTS to go... and PK should have never been brought back. Semien would need to play every day.

 

But this just isn't what is going to happen, so why not keep the perfect 4th outfielder, at least for two or three months?

[TomPickle]

Taking a look around the league I would say that the teams who would most likely be looking for a player like De Aza would be the Orioles, Reds, Giants and maybe Astros.

 

The Astros already traded for Dexter Fowler and gave up Jordan Lyles for him. Fowler is definitely a more valuable player than De Aza, but he's probably the closest thing to De Aza that has been traded recently. I would think the White Sox could get maybe a B- return for De Aza compared to Fowler. I'd be happy to get back guys like Parker Bridwell, Drew Cisco (maybe another toss in player with him), Derek Law, or Kyle Smith for De Aza.