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Hahn's next move?


The Ultimate Champion
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QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 24, 2013 -> 06:37 PM)
Any stat that says Alexei has been a negative offensive contributor out of the SS positions gets a nice gob of sloppy brown and swirls down to meet the rest of its family in the septic tank.

 

The person who originally posted the stat wasn't taking position into account.

 

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I see no reason why Hector Noesi of the Mariners shouldn't be available, nor any reason Hahn shouldn't look into him. The Mariners could use DeAza in the OF IMO & maybe Dunn some in the DH slot. DeAza + Dunn + tons of cash for Noesi and some other pitching maybe? I'd love to see the Sox pull some arms out of that org. Noesi would be a nice #5 and add righty balance with potential to far exceed that.

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QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 25, 2013 -> 01:28 PM)
I see no reason why Hector Noesi of the Mariners shouldn't be available, nor any reason Hahn shouldn't look into him. The Mariners could use DeAza in the OF IMO & maybe Dunn some in the DH slot. DeAza + Dunn + tons of cash for Noesi and some other pitching maybe? I'd love to see the Sox pull some arms out of that org. Noesi would be a nice #5 and add righty balance with potential to far exceed that.

Wow what a horrid deal that would be for the sox.

Edited by ChiSox59
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QUOTE (bear_brian @ Dec 24, 2013 -> 01:41 PM)
Before you make any more illiterate statements, here are the facts on Beckham last year:

 

1. Played the first 7 games of the season and was hitting .316 when he broke the hamate bone in his wrist. Was put on the DL, had surgery and did not play again until June 3rd.

 

2. From June 3rd through July 26th he raised his average to .320. On July 26th he aggravated the same wrist, but began to play through the pain. He was still hitting over .300 (.310) on August 15th, when he suffered a quad strain.

 

3. From that point on, his average began to drop, and he was absolutely awful in September.

 

Maybe you see something different than real baseball fans, but Beckham was having a breakout season last year before he aggravated the wrist and suffered the quad strain. Ventura said Beckham was "hurting" most of the year.

 

There are many things to dislike about the 2012 White Sox, but Gordon Beckham's efforts to continue playing while suffereing from two separate injuries should not be one of them.

 

It's ironic you're calling someone "illiterate" and "not a real baseball fan" and then trying to make a believable argument by citing nothing but batting average over the course of less than 30 games, rofl.

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QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 25, 2013 -> 01:28 PM)
I see no reason why Hector Noesi of the Mariners shouldn't be available, nor any reason Hahn shouldn't look into him. The Mariners could use DeAza in the OF IMO & maybe Dunn some in the DH slot. DeAza + Dunn + tons of cash for Noesi and some other pitching maybe? I'd love to see the Sox pull some arms out of that org. Noesi would be a nice #5 and add righty balance with potential to far exceed that.

 

Are you confusing Noesi with someone else?

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 25, 2013 -> 06:38 PM)
Are you confusing Noesi with someone else?

No, he has a nice arm. He's way back on the M's depth chart & should be available. for sure

 

Dunn will bring back nothing much even if you eat his salary. DeAza probably gets you 1-2 prospects/projects. Noesi + something else for DeAza, Noesi straight up for Dunn and lots of cash, I do those moves for sure. Coop project. I threw in other pitching because I'd like to see some more arms come back but I don't know what they'd have available. SEA has some interesting bust type position players but they all look like either arb eligible or nearly arb eligible, meaning they've got a year basically to show something. That Franklin guy everyone here talks about, he seems like he'd bring back a much better player for Seattle than either Dunn or DeAza, and I assume that's about all we have to trade that they'd want, unless we want to talk Viciedo (I wouldn't).

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QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 25, 2013 -> 08:18 PM)
No, he has a nice arm. He's way back on the M's depth chart & should be available. for sure

 

Dunn will bring back nothing much even if you eat his salary. DeAza probably gets you 1-2 prospects/projects. Noesi + something else for DeAza, Noesi straight up for Dunn and lots of cash, I do those moves for sure. Coop project. I threw in other pitching because I'd like to see some more arms come back but I don't know what they'd have available. SEA has some interesting bust type position players but they all look like either arb eligible or nearly arb eligible, meaning they've got a year basically to show something. That Franklin guy everyone here talks about, he seems like he'd bring back a much better player for Seattle than either Dunn or DeAza, and I assume that's about all we have to trade that they'd want, unless we want to talk Viciedo (I wouldn't).

 

I see what you mean -- Dunn as negative value. I think I'd agree with this in a different year, but since the payroll isn't really an issue, I'd rather maximize the value of De Aza rather than worry about getting Dunn off the roster.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 26, 2013 -> 01:55 PM)
I see what you mean -- Dunn as negative value. I think I'd agree with this in a different year, but since the payroll isn't really an issue, I'd rather maximize the value of De Aza rather than worry about getting Dunn off the roster.

You know a lot more about the prospects out there than I do, I just like Noesi's arm a lot and I think he could be a fit with Coop. But I'm sure you'd have a better idea of what else they'd have to offer in terms of pitching prospects. There's quality there to be had I would assume. They basically gave away Fister & Morrow. I'd love to dip into that well a bit, especially since they seem pretty desperate.

 

As for Dunn, I'd eat all his cash anyway, but getting a potentially good player would be awesome. I would argue that it's worth it to shed Dunn even if it only allows us to keep Connor Gillaspie & take a 4th OF on the roster. If Davidson struggles or doesn't make it out of ST as the starter (and there's no reason to "challenge" or rush him when he has options) then Gillaspie will be pretty important to us, and even after a kind of disappointing first year, Gillaspie should by no means be considered a finished product. 5 years of Gillaspie as a cheap 1B/3B/LF LH PH option with the ability to start for stretches has a lot more value to our future than 1 year of Dunn does now. And a 4th OF will be necessary, especially if Leury can't hit his weight even measured in kilos. And I think if you can get that extra positional flexibility plus a project, you just do it & be thrilled at the chance.

 

Maximizing DeAza though, I would like to see that, but I'm not sure you're going to get much ceiling out of him unless you either take a bust/failed/change of scenery type like a Noesi or you dip down into the lower minors. If the Sox can do both though I'd love it. The Mariners OF seems pretty s***ty and he would actually fit as a LF there, so maybe Hahn's already spoken to them.

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QUOTE (Vance Law @ Dec 26, 2013 -> 03:21 PM)
If that is the case, I was not aware. Does Fangraphs describe that methodology somewhere?

 

It's not really a hard methodology, it's just instead of using MLB average and then factoring in park and league adjustments you just use qualified players by position as the denominator. It's a new run environment in MLB right now, a shortstop that is good defensively doesn't have to hit much more than 240/295/340 to have value above replacement, in fact assuming that hypothetical SS is +10 or so runs above average with the glove and decent on the basepaths, that's a 2 WAR shortstop, solid starter territory.

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QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Dec 26, 2013 -> 04:14 PM)
It's not really a hard methodology, it's just instead of using MLB average and then factoring in park and league adjustments you just use qualified players by position as the denominator. It's a new run environment in MLB right now, a shortstop that is good defensively doesn't have to hit much more than 240/295/340 to have value above replacement, in fact assuming that hypothetical SS is +10 or so runs above average with the glove and decent on the basepaths, that's a 2 WAR shortstop, solid starter territory.

 

This is actually why the prospect of Leury Garcia excites me, even if he's a weak hitter. If he can be a .250/.300/.350 guy while stealing 30-40 bases at a 75-80% clip and playing excellent defense, he could be a 2-3 WAR player for the league minimum. That's almost exactly what he's been in the minors while being pretty young for each level, and he's shown better power than a prospect like, say, Carlos Sanchez.

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QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 27, 2013 -> 09:36 AM)
Who still needs a SS then?

 

I think Alexei would be a perfect fit for the Yankees. They have Kelly Johnson at 2B, nothing at 3B, Jeter at SS. They can play Alexei anywhere and make an improvement. Not sure what they would trade though.

 

I don't think it's a move you necessarily rush into. Frankly, Alexei is currently a much better player than Garcia is, and I would honestly be surprised if Garcia put up .225/.275/.325 this year. If the Sox had something they needed the money for, then yes, it might be worth it. I don't foresee them needing that money at the moment as they still have some that they can spend and, barring them getting crazy and signing Tanaka or trading for someone like Kemp, they really shouldn't need that money. They can run Ramirez out at SS every day, let Garcia remain in the minors, and find some combination of players to perform the backup outfield and infield duties. If the time comes during the middle of the season when the Sox are out of contention and a team is in need of a SS, then you consider trading Ramirez so as to maximize his value.

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Dec 27, 2013 -> 10:47 AM)
Garcia is a non prospect who the Sox apparently don't even trust to be on the bench of a rotten team. He likely never starts in the majors and certainly should not be counted on going forward. Let's call a spade a spade.

He certainly hasn't hit much to this point, but to call a 22 year old who made it to the major leagues as a 22 year old a non prospect even though he has mulitple plus tools, is just being a Debbie Downer.

 

It's easy to say a prospect sucks. You can say that about Eaton, Davidison and A. Garcia, and chances are you will be more right than wrong just on those 3.

 

Garcia has to develop some offense. Given the Sox lack of success developing that particular aspect of the game, he probably will not be all that great, but some tools are there. He's fast. He has a gun for an arm. He is going to most likely be an excellent defender at mutiple positions. He definitely has value at least as a bench player moving forward.

Edited by Dick Allen
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The Sox have fared better with players closer to the MLB talent level. They have not been good about developing players, but they have helped players make adjustments in previous years to improve their overall play. Pierzynski hit 23 homers, Rios has a phenomenal year (and then a fairly good year), Ramriez has become a decent hitter for average, De Aza a solid regular, but pretty much anyone who has played in AA or lower for the Sox at any point as a prospect has become a bust of a prospect.

 

Garcia has some semblance of an idea as a hitter, and if they can shorten up his swing, he can become a really nice player. I like his odds of making it as a regular far more than I like Carlos Sanchez's.

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Unless something changes during the offseason, it looked like they were trying to have Garcia abandon the switch-hitting. That may help...but it may not. My guess is that they saw something that led them to believe that he was stronger from the right and should concentrate on his strength. If he becomes a better hitter, he could be a nice bench player with his defense and speed.

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QUOTE (Andy the Clown @ Dec 25, 2013 -> 10:02 AM)
The offensive values are compared to others who play the same position, so the middle infielder thing doesn't hold.

 

So Beckham joins Alexei and other recent White Sox infielders who've been more important defensively. The aforementioned -30 Alexei, career -46 Joe Crede, career -119 Juan Uribe who just signed a $15 million contract.

 

For Beckham's career 5.4 WAR we've paid him $4.8 million.

 

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QUOTE (Vance Law @ Dec 27, 2013 -> 01:25 PM)
So Beckham joins Alexei and other recent White Sox infielders who've been more important defensively. The aforementioned -30 Alexei, career -46 Joe Crede, career -119 Juan Uribe who just signed a $15 million contract.

 

For Beckham's career 5.4 WAR we've paid him $4.8 million.

(That, by the way, does not mean that Uribe's contract was anything other than bad).

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QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 26, 2013 -> 02:18 PM)
You know a lot more about the prospects out there than I do, I just like Noesi's arm a lot and I think he could be a fit with Coop. But I'm sure you'd have a better idea of what else they'd have to offer in terms of pitching prospects. There's quality there to be had I would assume. They basically gave away Fister & Morrow. I'd love to dip into that well a bit, especially since they seem pretty desperate.

 

As for Dunn, I'd eat all his cash anyway, but getting a potentially good player would be awesome. I would argue that it's worth it to shed Dunn even if it only allows us to keep Connor Gillaspie & take a 4th OF on the roster. If Davidson struggles or doesn't make it out of ST as the starter (and there's no reason to "challenge" or rush him when he has options) then Gillaspie will be pretty important to us, and even after a kind of disappointing first year, Gillaspie should by no means be considered a finished product. 5 years of Gillaspie as a cheap 1B/3B/LF LH PH option with the ability to start for stretches has a lot more value to our future than 1 year of Dunn does now. And a 4th OF will be necessary, especially if Leury can't hit his weight even measured in kilos. And I think if you can get that extra positional flexibility plus a project, you just do it & be thrilled at the chance.

 

Maximizing DeAza though, I would like to see that, but I'm not sure you're going to get much ceiling out of him unless you either take a bust/failed/change of scenery type like a Noesi or you dip down into the lower minors. If the Sox can do both though I'd love it. The Mariners OF seems pretty s***ty and he would actually fit as a LF there, so maybe Hahn's already spoken to them.

 

They added Morrison and Hart, two players that SHOULD be at 1B/DH instead of a corner outfield spot.

 

Dunn would be of no interest to them, because they also have Smoak on their roster and ditching Smoak for one year of Dunn makes about zero sense.

 

Sure, they're trying to compete THIS year, but we at least are also attempting to create the illusion we could compete in 2013 as well....and giving Konerko a full season of at-bats at DH makes about as much sense as eating almost all of Dunn's contract before the year even begins.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 27, 2013 -> 07:14 PM)
They added Morrison and Hart, two players that SHOULD be at 1B/DH instead of a corner outfield spot.

 

Dunn would be of no interest to them, because they also have Smoak on their roster and ditching Smoak for one year of Dunn makes about zero sense.

 

Sure, they're trying to compete THIS year, but we at least are also attempting to create the illusion we could compete in 2013 as well....and giving Konerko a full season of at-bats at DH makes about as much sense as eating almost all of Dunn's contract before the year even begins.

The problem continues to be roster spots. Right now, the guys we have under big league contract with no position are:

 

Gillaspie

Keppinger

De Aza

Dunn

 

Our options are to either dump 2 of them uncerimoniously or to send Eaton and Davidson to AAA regardless of what they do in Spring Training.

 

We have 4 guys on the bench right now who can't be sent to the minors. There's not even room for a backup catcher right now. As it stands right now, Davidson could hit .900 in spring training and we'd still have to send him to the minors just to carry a backup catcher.

 

"Dunn might bring something slightly better in July" doesn't matter right now. If we can save a couple million, get him off the roster and at least give us a way to carry a backup catcher.

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