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Asking Prices Beginning to Fall


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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 12:46 PM)
Wait, so they used 15 guys last year as starting pitchers and are going into the season with more obvious starting pitcher candidates in the minors than they had last year?

 

Clearly you make a convincing case to add starters. After all, we're better off with a 9 man rotation.

Sure, if you want to watch guys like Axelrod and Rienzo get lit up, all is fine.

 

 

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 01:54 PM)
Sure, if you want to watch guys like Axelrod and Rienzo get lit up, all is fine.

At the same age, Ervin Santana's ERA in the big leagues was in the mid 4's. Ubaldo Jiminez put up an ERA over 5 during his 26-27 year old seasons.

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QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 12:52 PM)
Hardly. Just acceptable risk for degree of return, as well as obvious need. I think the White Sox don't want to sign guys they don't want. Seems logical enough.

 

I'm not worried they'll show a Marlins-like frugality, and neither are you. Come on, man.

In my mind, Jimenez at $39 million is far less a gamble than Abreu at $68 million. And I love the Abreu signing.

 

We will see what Jimenez ultimately signs for. It may be more. It may be less, but if you can harness his delivery, and that is something Cooper is known for, he is one of the better pitchers in the game.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 11:45 AM)
With their future payroll commitments they can absorb the salary hit if the signing is bad. The upside is too good to pass up. The conservative rebuild approach won't cut it IF these Cubs prospects are what they are reported to be.

Cubs, what??? This has anything to do with us?? The casual fan will show up for winning, regardless of the northsiders. You worry about that stuff?!?! Gotta get out of the bubble.

 

If the price gets low enough, they may do what you want, yet. But we don't know what that is, if it exists.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 12:56 PM)
At the same age, Ervin Santana's ERA in the big leagues was in the mid 4's. Ubaldo Jiminez put up an ERA over 5 during his 26-27 year old seasons.

Actually as a 26 year old Jimenez put up a 2.88 ERA with 19 wins in Colorado. The guy has magic stuff. His problems were/are mechanical. I don't think even think the people here that want to argue with me if I say 2+2=4 would argue with me if I said that any logic that says Rienzo is anywhere near Santana or Jimenez is flawed.

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QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 12:59 PM)
Cubs, what??? This has anything to do with us?? The casual fan will show up for winning, regardless of the northsiders. You worry about that stuff?!?! Gotta get out of the bubble.

 

If the price gets low enough, they may do what you want, yet. But we don't know what that is, if it exists.

 

I don't know what to tell you if you don't think the Sox are competing with the Cubs.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 11:58 AM)
In my mind, Jimenez at $39 million is far less a gamble than Abreu at $68 million. And I love the Abreu signing.

 

We will see what Jimenez ultimately signs for. It may be more. It may be less, but if you can harness his delivery, and that is something Cooper is known for, he is one of the better pitchers in the game.

 

He certainly was here in CO for awhile. I was his biggest fan. Consistently 96-98, even at games' end, with 6-8 inches of armside tail. If he had command of the FB, he barely needed the slider, which was always inconsistent, even in his best days, but was terrific when he was "on". Haven't seen anything close to that guy in the years that have transpired since. Don't know what happened - injuries didn't seem too severe. Some suspect roids, but all is speculation. Maybe Coop can help, but he'll never be what he was.

 

That said, Ervin could be a gas can with the way the ball flies out of the cell, so if it's a choice, go with Ubaldo.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 12:06 PM)
I don't know what to tell you if you don't think the Sox are competing with the Cubs.

 

Oh, please. When we win, we draw.

 

The Cubs are so tearing it up with rabid fan enthusiasm these days.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:03 PM)
Actually as a 26 year old Jimenez put up a 2.88 ERA with 19 wins in Colorado. The guy has magic stuff. His problems were/are mechanical. I don't think even think the people here that want to argue with me if I say 2+2=4 would argue with me if I said that any logic that says Rienzo is anywhere near Santana or Jimenez is flawed.

 

Jimenez lost a TON of velocity the past couple years. He is not the same guy now that he was when he was 26.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:03 PM)
Actually as a 26 year old Jimenez put up a 2.88 ERA with 19 wins in Colorado. The guy has magic stuff. His problems were/are mechanical. I don't think even think the people here that want to argue with me if I say 2+2=4 would argue with me if I said that any logic that says Rienzo is anywhere near Santana or Jimenez is flawed.

His average fastball that year was 96.3 miles per hour. The next year when his ERA popped up over 5, his average fastball was 92.5. It was 92.1 last year.

 

I believe the correct way to spell that word is "had".

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QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 01:07 PM)
He certainly was here in CO for awhile. I was his biggest fan. Consistently 96-98, even at games' end, with 6-8 inches of armside tail. If he had command of the FB, he barely needed the slider, which was always inconsistent, even in his best days, but was terrific when he was "on". Haven't seen anything close to that guy in the years that have transpired since. Don't know what happened - injuries didn't seem too severe. Some suspect roids, but all is speculation. Maybe Coop can help, but he'll never be what he was.

 

That said, Ervin could be a gas can with the way the ball flies out of the cell, so if it's a choice, go with Ubaldo.

I read a scouting report on him. It said his delivery got all out of whack. He changed it last year, taking some MPHs off his pitches but increasing his command. He got rocked in April, but was lights out the rest of the season.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:12 PM)
I read a scouting report on him. It said his delivery got all out of whack. He changed it last year, taking some MPHs off his pitches but increasing his command. He got rocked in April, but was lights out the rest of the season.

actually his mph last year was 0.4 mph below the previous year. He lost his velocity 2 years before that and never regained it, and struggled mightily for the first 2 years after losing it.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 01:06 PM)
I don't know what to tell you if you don't think the Sox are competing with the Cubs.

 

The best way to "compete" with the Cubs is to build a successful and sustainable franchise by making shrewd baseball moves. Hahn has already reshaped our lineup with a younger core and he tried as hard as he could with Tanaka. Let the man work

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:12 PM)
I read a scouting report on him. It said his delivery got all out of whack. He changed it last year, taking some MPHs off his pitches but increasing his command. He got rocked in April, but was lights out the rest of the season.

 

Check out the Pitch F/X tab here: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?play...&position=P

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I thought Rienzo looked pretty good last year except that he had the same problem as Santiago and that was throwing strikes. He had a heluva 2nd half in the minors last year and everyone was surprised he had such a good curve ball in the game threads when he came up even though his cut fastball was supposed to be his best pitch. He has a legit chance to be a back of the rotation starter.

 

This is what you do when you go young. You find out what you have. Saying the Sox should already know what they have is like saying they can predict his future and everyone including us and the Sox brass can only speculate on that.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 12:25 PM)
The Sox future financial commitments is the reason they should sign Jimenez or Santana. The risk is virtually nil if it bombs. The upside if it works out is they can deal a Quintana, Danks, Beck, Johnson, to fill a need. Outside of the core, they have little to deal to get anything of value.

 

You have lambasted the Dunn signing as one of the worst ever and, in hindsight, it is. So what happens if they sign someone to a similar AAV to a position that is not of need and he flops? It's just a drop in the bucket? No, it's an absolutely terrible signing.

 

The risk is extreme if he bombs.

 

Regarding why people are not afraid of Abreu: first, they are afraid of him bombing. Secondly, it filled a position of great need for the Sox and hopefully locks up 1B for the next 6 years. The Sox do not NEED a starter right now and they don't necessarily NEED a starter next year. You don't make luxury signings at this stage in the team's development.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 01:26 PM)
You have lambasted the Dunn signing as one of the worst ever and, in hindsight, it is. So what happens if they sign someone to a similar AAV to a position that is not of need and he flops? It's just a drop in the bucket? No, it's an absolutely terrible signing.

 

The risk is extreme if he bombs.

 

Regarding why people are not afraid of Abreu: first, they are afraid of him bombing. Secondly, it filled a position of great need for the Sox and hopefully locks up 1B for the next 6 years. The Sox do not NEED a starter right now and they don't necessarily NEED a starter next year. You don't make luxury signings at this stage in the team's development.

 

You're conveniently ignoring their current future financial commitments which alow them to easily absorb a $39M contract if it bombs.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 01:31 PM)
You're conveniently ignoring their current future financial commitments which alow them to easily absorb a $39M contract if it bombs.

 

I'm not conveniently ignoring anything. Nobody easily absorbs a $39 million contract Marty. You are suggesting that the Sox take on a potentially bad contract because they are ridding themselves of one this year. That's like a person is about to pay off their credit cards, so they have to make a huge purchase just so they can pay it off again for the next 3 years.

 

 

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 01:26 PM)
You have lambasted the Dunn signing as one of the worst ever and, in hindsight, it is. So what happens if they sign someone to a similar AAV to a position that is not of need and he flops? It's just a drop in the bucket? No, it's an absolutely terrible signing.

 

The risk is extreme if he bombs.

 

Regarding why people are not afraid of Abreu: first, they are afraid of him bombing. Secondly, it filled a position of great need for the Sox and hopefully locks up 1B for the next 6 years. The Sox do not NEED a starter right now and they don't necessarily NEED a starter next year. You don't make luxury signings at this stage in the team's development.

They NEED a starting pitcher just as much as they NEED a first baseman. Just ask Balta. The Sox have plenty of 1B/DH. And as you admitted, chances are the Sox are going to have to rely on guys like Paulino who has pitched 140 innings exactly never in his MLB career, and after him are guys who you admittedly said are probably no good with Rienzo, Surkamp and even Axelrod. They will always need pitching. If they didn't need pitching, no one in their right mind could say they aren't contending for a playoff spot.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 01:34 PM)
They NEED a starting pitcher just as much as they NEED a first baseman. Just ask Balta. The Sox have plenty of 1B/DH. And as you admitted, chances are the Sox are going to have to rely on guys like Paulino who has pitched 140 innings exactly never in his MLB career, and after him are guys who you admittedly said are probably no good with Rienzo, Surkamp and even Axelrod. They will always need pitching. If they didn't need pitching, no one in their right mind could say they aren't contending for a playoff spot.

 

You may as well see if they're no good though, right? People were sure that Chris Sale's arm was going to fall off in the rotation and nobody expected Quintana to last more than 2-3 starts and make his way out like Pedro Hernandez did, but sure as shoot they're both still there.

 

If you don't ever try guys, you'll never know what you have.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 01:36 PM)
You may as well see if they're no good though, right? People were sure that Chris Sale's arm was going to fall off in the rotation and nobody expected Quintana to last more than 2-3 starts and make his way out like Pedro Hernandez did, but sure as shoot they're both still there.

 

If you don't ever try guys, you'll never know what you have.

Rienzo and Surkamp and Axelrod have been tried and convicted of being not so good.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:34 PM)
If they didn't need pitching, no one in their right mind could say they aren't contending for a playoff spot.

Last year, the White Sox came in 8th in MLB in fWAR from their pitching staff.

 

All 10 playoff teams were in the top 19 in fWAR from their pitching staff and 9 of the 10 were in the top 16, so fWAR from pitching staff is doing a decent job of sorting out the playoff teams highly.

 

The #7 team was the Braves, the #9 team was the Cardinals. Both playoff teams, one made the world series. The #3 team on the list won the world series.

 

The White Sox 2013 pitching staff put up numbers 100% comparable to plenty of teams that made the playoffs. And yet somehow...they were not competitive for a playoff spot.

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