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Asking Prices Beginning to Fall


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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:26 PM)
I don't know? We'll have to see what Saltalamacchia does. Not everything has to be a stance. I was quite indifferent on Saltalamacchia. I said many times "if they sign him, great, if they don't, great." Just because I was or was not at one time willing to spend doesn't make it the right move, nor does it make it the wrong move.

 

I was not nearly as adament about adding Saltalamacchia as the contingent here is about adding a mid rotation starter, and at least Saltalamacchia would have been a significant upgrade on the Sox current catching situation. You simply can't say that about Jimenez or Santana.

$44 million over 4 years for a 29 year old catcher is fairly adament, when we are advocating 3 years $39 million for a 30 year old pitcher.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 03:30 PM)
Sorry, not release candidates, after thoughts. And if a HS kid is picked in 2014, according to you if they aren't up by 2019 they probably will never be with the White Sox. Here it is:

 

 

I absolutely think that Hawkins could help the Sox in 2 years. It all depends on how well he performs. The fact is, if these guys aren't helping or close to helping the major league team in 4 years, they're basically after thoughts. Do you really think anyone in the White Sox front office views Jared Mitchell as a potential starting player down the road? But he went to college, so he should have been up in 3 years, right?

 

If the high schooler they take in the 1st and/or 2nd round this year isn't up by the end of the decade, odds are pretty good they'll never be up with the White Sox.

Of course, this breaks down when you use it on international signings. With a guy coming out of a U.S. high school being drafted moderately high...there's good film on him and he's been playing at the level of U.S. high school competition. If he isn't up in 6 years, then yes, something went wrong.

 

However, a guy coming out of say, Brazil, or anywhere else like that...they have not necessarily been facing that same talent level even at a comparable age. They may, for example, then spend 2-3 years playing in the Dominican Summer League for that reason before they are even ready to attempt rookie ball. That is a consequence of the lack of coaching and development they might have had available to them in that country.

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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:25 PM)
Just to expand more on what I said about Rienzo earlier his last 10 starts at AAA before his call up he went 5-3 with a 1.64 ERA . I have no idea what Dick meant by a dime a dozen in referring to Rienzo ,but I would like to challenge him to find a dozen starters in AAA with similiar numbers. 10 starts 66 inings pitched 69 K's 24 BB and that 1.64 ERA also holding opponents to a .192 BA. I will even give him the whole year at AAA to find a simliar stretch of 10 games for a dozen AAA starting pitchers. You cannot use Erik Johnson since he is with the Sox.

You really shouldn't cherry pick minor league stats to determine major league success. Do you know Lance Broadway had a 2.75 ERA in AA as a 22 year old.?Did you happen to see Nestor Molina's stats when he was acquired? What matters is how it translates to MLB. Rienzo doesn't have great stuff or great command. He will soon be 26 so you would think the learning curve is flattening out. He may have a decent career as a relief pitcher.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:33 PM)
Of course, this breaks down when you use it on international signings. With a guy coming out of a U.S. high school being drafted moderately high...there's good film on him and he's been playing at the level of U.S. high school competition. If he isn't up in 6 years, then yes, something went wrong.

 

However, a guy coming out of say, Brazil, or anywhere else like that...they have not necessarily been facing that same talent level even at a comparable age. They may, for example, then spend 2-3 years playing in the Dominican Summer League for that reason before they are even ready to attempt rookie ball. That is a consequence of the lack of coaching and development they might have had available to them in that country.

What's the difference between a 16 or 17 year old in the US vs. a foreign player the same age? To get signed they have to be somewhat advanced unless Dave Wilder is involved.

 

I would say some should be more advanced because most play baseball all year instead of just a few months like many in the US.

Edited by Dick Allen
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QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:34 PM)
The problem with signing Santana is you'd rather have that $-flexibility when you are close. Hold on to that dough right now, and take this year to see the new cast, and see how realistically close you are to contention for '15.

We have a lot of money coming off the books here pretty soon, and if you trade one of Danks/Santana later (if they're pretty good) you're not eating any salary there.

 

I really don't see where the Sox are going to be going after first tier pitchers. I know they went after Tanaka but he was the exception IMO not the rule. That next tier down is where the Sox typically operate and they have a nice habit of getting more out of those arms than other teams can.

 

It's funny how so often you hear about buy low and sell high but yet nobody wants to buy low on Santana right now? Why not? Draft pick cost? Ha.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:32 PM)
$44 million over 4 years for a 29 year old catcher is fairly adament, when we are advocating 3 years $39 million for a 30 year old pitcher.

 

$40. And the key word is WILLING, dude. Do you understand what that means? I'd have preferred him at $7 million.

 

You harp on the same points over and over even as people prove you wrong.

 

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:36 PM)
You really shouldn't cherry pick minor league stats to determine major league success. Do you know Lance Broadway had a 2.75 ERA in AA as a 22 year old.?Did you happen to see Nestor Molina's stats when he was acquired? What matters is how it translates to MLB. Rienzo doesn't have great stuff or great command. He will soon be 26 so you would think the learning curve is flattening out. He may have a decent career as a relief pitcher.

 

And his ERA at AAA was 5.69 and was 4.65 with the White Sox with a K rate near 6. Rienzo's CAREER ERA in the minors is 3.46 with a K/9 of 9.6. You cherry pick all you want, but signs point towards Rienzo actually having a lick of stuff.

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QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:38 PM)
We have a lot of money coming off the books here pretty soon, and if you trade one of Danks/Santana later (if they're pretty good) you're not eating any salary there.

 

I really don't see where the Sox are going to be going after first tier pitchers. I know they went after Tanaka but he was the exception IMO not the rule. That next tier down is where the Sox typically operate and they have a nice habit of getting more out of those arms than other teams can.

 

It's funny how so often you hear about buy low and sell high but yet nobody wants to buy low on Santana right now? Why not? Draft pick cost? Ha.

 

How much could you get in a trade for John Danks right now?

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QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:42 PM)
Now you'd be lucky to shed the deal IMO.

 

3 months down the road, if he's performing very well and appears to have put the injury behind him?

 

You shed the entire deal then and you pick up a couple nice prospects.

 

Weird, where have I heard that before?

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QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 12:31 PM)
He has very underwhelming stuff. MR or 5th starter and probably trade bait IMO.

 

Paulino is a lot more interesting than he is to me, but he's still kind of a hope and a prayer. He would need to look pretty good to get the option picked up.

 

The next member of the rotation is probably Beck in the eyes of the org which is why the signed the placeholder. If you sign a much better player then you likely end up with a good problem - IF nobody gets hurt. Otherwise you just end up with 5 starters when Beck is here because someone is on the DL.

 

The worst realistic outcome of signing either Santana or Ubaldo is having them be bad pitchers for us. A 3-year deal plus their experience in the league mitigates a lot of that risk. If they're even average, at these supposed salaries, they are definitely movable and bring back something worth mentioning.

Of course you're entitled to your opinion . Keith Law said his cutter is "definitely a major league pitch" and as I said before in the game threads many of us were impressed with his curve. It was a big breaking overhand curve that reminded me of Bobby Jenks curve. We're in a rebuild, that much is clear and Rienzo needs every opportunity to show if he can add to his repetoire and continue to progress.

 

He just seems like the kind of guy if , in another organization , people would see those last 10 starts and be fawning over him but with us , an organization that seems to do a good job developing pitchers , he becomes a dime a dozen.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:39 PM)
$40. And the key word is WILLING, dude. Do you understand what that means? I'd have preferred him at $7 million.

 

You harp on the same points over and over even as people prove you wrong.

 

 

 

And his ERA at AAA was 5.69 and was 4.65 with the White Sox with a K rate near 6. Rienzo's CAREER ERA in the minors is 3.46 with a K/9 of 9.6. You cherry pick all you want, but signs point towards Rienzo actually having a lick of stuff.

25 year olds in AAA getting guys out is nothing to hang your hat on. Rienzo isn't special. You said so yourself a few pages back.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:42 PM)
John Danks who had a better 2013 than Jimenez or Santana had 2012.

In 3 of the last 4 years Ervin Santana posted a single season WAR greater than the combined WAR of John Danks 2011 + 2012 + 2013 seasons.

 

SS2K5 you're better than this. Why all the hate? Ervin Santana wants to be on your team. He WANTS to pitch for you, and help you win games. Why won't you let him win games for you? Do you not like games? Do you not like winning? FOR THE LOVE OF GOD LET THE GUY WIN GAMES FOR YOU!

 

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QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:50 PM)
In 3 of the last 4 years Ervin Santana posted a single season WAR greater than the combined WAR of John Danks 2011 + 2012 + 2013 seasons.

 

SS2K5 you're better than this. Why all the hate? Ervin Santana wants to be on your team. He WANTS to pitch for you, and help you win games. Why won't you let him win games for you? Do you not like games? Do you not like winning? FOR THE LOVE OF GOD LET THE GUY WIN GAMES FOR YOU!

 

 

2 of those three years were directly related to major surgery, yet his 2013 was still better than Santana's 2012.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:48 PM)
25 year olds in AAA getting guys out is nothing to hang your hat on. Rienzo isn't special. You said so yourself a few pages back.

 

I've said he probably doesn't turn into anything, and I agree, he isn't special. Neither is Jose Quintana nor is Bronson Arroyo nor is Ubaldo Jimenez nor is Ervin Santana. He also got a late start to his career and, come the age of 21, progressed pretty normally. It doesn't mean he can't be an effective pitcher. I've also never disagreed that, long-term, he's probably a spot starter or reliever. Again, I can find examples of guys who broke that and guys who did the opposite. Without giving him a shot, it's simply something that we won't find out.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 12:36 PM)
You really shouldn't cherry pick minor league stats to determine major league success. Do you know Lance Broadway had a 2.75 ERA in AA as a 22 year old.?Did you happen to see Nestor Molina's stats when he was acquired? What matters is how it translates to MLB. Rienzo doesn't have great stuff or great command. He will soon be 26 so you would think the learning curve is flattening out. He may have a decent career as a relief pitcher.

I gave you a similiar opportunity to cherry pick since you said he was a dime a dozen . You have all of AAA for every major league team in 2013 to do so. So you refuse to back up your point . That's OK I expected that.

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QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:51 PM)
Well it works a lot when you are talking about a *pitcher* and something that is actually *in demand* and actually *wanted* by other teams in baseball.

 

And a lefty masher is something teams don't want? I guess that's why Jason Giambi keeps getting work then, huh? And why Jim Thome stuck around until he was 41? And they're not even as good as Adam Dunn.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:54 PM)
And a lefty masher is something teams don't want? I guess that's why Jason Giambi keeps getting work then, huh? And why Jim Thome stuck around until he was 41? And they're not even as good as Adam Dunn.

 

Adam Dunn is a perfect case in point to the risk in this deal. It would be like signing Adam Dunn to a long term, 8 figure per year deal, based on his 2012 bounce back year.

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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:53 PM)
I gave you a similiar opportunity to cherry pick since you said he was a dime a dozen . You have all of AAA for every major league team in 2013 to do so. So you refuse to back up your point . That's OK I expected that.

Just look at Charlotte's staff. Jason Berken had a lower ERA. Charlie Leesman had a lower ERA. Check out Dylan Axelrod's minor league career. It is quite impressive.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 02:54 PM)
And a lefty masher is something teams don't want? I guess that's why Jason Giambi keeps getting work then, huh? And why Jim Thome stuck around until he was 41? And they're not even as good as Adam Dunn.

Giambi is a cloubhouse guy who is going to manage in the big leagues probably very soon after retiring.

 

Teams want good players with power that can actually field the baseball. Invoking future 1st ballot HOFer Jim Thome's name in relation to Dunn is laughable, and his .762 OPS last year was exactly 102 points below the same OPS Thome put up in 2009 after which he basically had to beg for a job. And the .786 OPS Thome posted as a 42 year old in limited action STILL wasn't enough to get another team to sign him.

 

Your head is buried in the sand when it comes to Dunn. The guy is terrible, he's limited, he's in decline, he K's like a machine, he doesn't post the same type of OBP he used to, and he's essentially a 1 skill player who when he isn't making contact is absolutely useless unless he happens to walk and the guy behind him hits a home run. He's just about f***ing useless.

 

Thome? Comparing this guy to Thome?

 

Wow, new low.

 

Can't believe it.

 

SMH

 

Damn.

 

Thome?

 

Damn.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 5, 2014 -> 03:02 PM)
Just look at Charlotte's staff. Jason Berken had a lower ERA. Charlie Leesman had a lower ERA. Check out Dylan Axelrod's minor league career. It is quite impressive.

 

And yet, none of their peripherals are close to Rienzo's. Looking at just minor league ERA is like looking at just batting average.

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