Evan Longoria

[LDF]

Tampa would be considering the possible draft compensation as well then, and Zobrist could very easily accept it too, which throws a wrench into potential future plans. He could also have a year where he begins breaking down and a qualifying offer makes a lot less sense.

 

On Viciedo, he's a guy that makes sense in Tampa but not at his current price and they aren't going to give up anything of value for him. Sanburn has not thrown a pitch at AA yet and thus has little to no value.

 

To even keep Tampa on the line, I think the bare minimum the Sox would have to offer would be along the lines of Viciedo, Montas, Hawkins, and approximately $4 million for Zobrist, and I think it'd be crazy if a team didn't offer more than that. The Cubs or Mets could offer up a couple of intriguing options and Tampa would have a hard time turning them down. Given that the Sox have stated they're pretty much up against their spending limit right now, I don't think adding $7.5 million to that is going to make things any easier along with giving up a ton of future pieces for a 34 year old rental.

 

again, you do have a very good point.

 

ref DV, by himself no, but for a cash strapped team offering 4 mil plus players may do

the trick. Sanburn will add to their farm another arm, which they need, hell i even add

Chris Beck in exchange for Montas.

 

however that is my starting point. obviously we, as fans do not have the resources, especially

me, to gage if i am talking thru my butt.

 

hey i will catch you latter.

 

peace.

[BigFinn]

I don't know that this is the best way to go about valuing a player. A few comparables for Chris Sale at this point are Mark Prior, Jaime Garcia, and Stephen Strasburg, along with a few guys who played before the 50s and a couple of whom were also born in the 19th century. All of those guys would have had highly variable values at each point of their careers.

 

Right now, Ben Zobrist is a guy who plays good defense at a lot of positions, swings a good stick, hits for a bit of power, draws a lot of walks, doesn't strike out a ton, and helps you on the base paths. He's a very good player who does not put up very flashy numbers. All of the teams are aware of this.

 

I will stand by saying that the bare minimum he will cost will be Tim Anderson and Frank Montas, and that's not something the Sox can afford at this point.

Zobrist is 34 years old. He is a known quantity. He may have two or three above average years left, but he probably doesn't. I don't know if it's 1 chance in 10 (Bill Mueller), 2 in 10, 3 in 10, but I would peg his having two good years out of the next three as being less than 50/50. I hope he proves me wrong.

 

Chris Sale's compatibles will be all over the place for now. He is a unique talent—the best young pitcher that I have ever seen, going back to Jason Bere, Alex Fernandez, Jack McDowell, LaMarr Hoyt, Rich Dotson, Britt Burns, Joel Horlen, Gary Peters, and Tommy John.

 

Looking at Chris Sale's top 10 most similar pitchers:

 

Stephen Strasburg—He could be a good pitcher IF the Nationals don't blow out his arm.

Fergie Jenkins—A helluva pitcher. Hall of Famer. Sinker, Slider, decent change. Sale has better stuff than Jenkins, but Jenkins incredibly durable.

Pete Alexander—Another Hall of Famer, Alexander may have been the best pitcher all-time if not for his undiagnosed bi-polar disorder.

Bill Singer—He may have been the #3 man on the 1960's Dodgers rotation that included Don Drysdale, Claude Osteen, and Don Sutton. Ridden hard, put away wet.

Art Nehf—He pitched for the last great NY Giants team of John McGraw.

Andy Messersmith—Another pitcher who started out great, was ridden hard, and put away wet. The first MLB free agent.

Jim Bouton—He got off to a great start for his career, then he got a little drink, then he became a best-selling author.

Lefty Williams—Good start to his career, then he became a ring-leader of the Black Sox.

Herb Score—Fantastic start to his career, then he got hit by a line drive. One of the subjects in Frank Gifford's book Courage.

Tim Lincecum—The definition of ridden hard and put away wet.

 

Chris Sale has pitched long enough that even biased observers can watch him pitch and see his quality. None of the 10 most similar pitchers to Chris Sale are bad pitchers: Fergie Jenkins was pretty much aiming for Cooperstown right from the start, so was Pete Alexander. Strasburg and Lincecum can still make it there. Singer, Messersmith, Bouton, Williams, and Score had Cooperstown starts to their respective careers, but got derailed for a variety of reasons. Only Art Nehf can be seen as less than great over the course of his career, and he was the ace on two world series champs: 1921 & 1922. Not bad company to keep.

 

The exciting thing to note about Chris Sale is that he is still developing. He is still getting better. That's why the Sox need to surround him with as good a team as they can. It would be a shame to see Chris develop into the kind of pitcher that Ferguson Jenkins became, only to have him suffer the same fate: toiling for a team that came close, but never made it to the world series.

 

That's why getting an Evan Longoria or a Ben Zobrist would be (dare I use the word again) exciting. They both have post-season experience, and either one of them may be available "if the price is right." It doesn't hurt anybody if Rick Hahn calls TB about Longoria or Zobrist. If the price for Zobrist includes Anderson or Montas, Hahn can hang up. If the price for Longoria includes one of Anderson or Montas along with three other prospects not named Rodon, Hahn should jump at the chance.

[GreenSox]

But buyer beware: Koskie and Bradley were done after their age-33 seasons. Hollins, Spezio, Gilkey, and Randa were part-time players by age 34. Only Hoak, Lopez, and Mueller were still playing more-or-less full time into their mid-thirties. And only Bill Mueller played effectively into his mid-thirties.

And that's the issue. People want to pay the full price of what these guys at or past their prime based on what they did IN THE PAST. Not what they are likely to do in the future

(beside the fact that most are woefully overrating what Longoria did in the past).

Zobrist's last 2 OBPS are around .750. That's modest and not coincidentally as he was 32 and 33. Maybe in July if in contention; but my goodness, you have to give some of the young players a chance.

 

That and failing to understand that top prospects are rarely traded. Thankfully, Hahn understands that and their value.

Edited December 27, 2014 by GreenSox

[Chicago White Sox]

(beside the fact that most are woefully overrating what Longoria did in the past).

Dude, what the f*** are you talking about. Longoria is 2nd in total WAR from 2008 to 2014. What could we possibly be overrating? He's been without question one of the best players in Major League Baseball over the course of his career. You're love for prospects is actually skewing your ability to reason.

[LDF]

 

i was reading and i saw that the Giants 2B Scutaro may have a career

ending injury. now i can see a team other than the Sox going after

Ben Zobrist, they have the trade chips to use. how bout Bonifacio,

this really change what we as fans will be a nice addition to the team.

[GreenSox]

If I come across as acerbic, i apologize.

We all have ideas, and try to express them.

 

Anyway, I don't take any of this stuff personally and I hope yall don't either.

I just enjoy the discussion.

 

And believe Longoria is overrated!

Edited December 27, 2014 by GreenSox

[BigFinn]

i was reading and i saw that the Giants 2B Scutaro may have a career

ending injury. now i can see a team other than the Sox going after

Ben Zobrist, they have the trade chips to use. how bout Bonifacio,

this really change what we as fans will be a nice addition to the team.

First, I hope for all the best for Marco Scutaro. He seems like a good man. He has always been a tough competitor on the field, and that attitude will help in after his surgery.

 

That said, Brian Sabean, the Giants GM, is not going to "Panik" over losing Marco Scutaro. Their big loss this off-season was Pablo Sandoval. They are hoping that Casey McGehee will fill in at 3B, but they may be looking for a LH bat to take some at-bats when McGehee would be overmatched by a tough RH pitcher.

 

Sabean is the last GM to overpay for a player, let alone a player on the cusp of being over-the-hill like Ben Zobrist. Zobrist would be useful for the Giants (or the White Sox, or any of the other MLB teams), but he isn't worth sending Tampa Bay any top prospects.

 

I think Longoria still has some all-star caliber seasons left, and I would be willing to sacrifice a little of the White Sox future to bring him on board. But if somebody told me that Longoria was going to start a slow but steady decline upon entering his age 30 season, I be hard pressed to argue the point.

 

By a little, I mentioned that a package for Longoria could start with Trey Michalczewski, but now, I'm not so sure.

 

Michalczewski just finished his age 19 season at High-A Winston-Salem. If he spends half a season at Winston-Salem and half a season at Birmingham, he might be ready for a September call up at age 20 and a full-time MLB job at age 21. Do you send a ballplayer who could become the next Robin Ventura (Michalczewski) to Tampa Bay to get the back half of Buddy Bell's career (Longoria) complete with the cumulative nicks and dings that come with age? That's why Rick Hahn gets paid the big bucks!

 

Did you know that Bonifacio's most similar player through his age 29 season was Alan Bannister? Alan Bannister of the 40 errors for the South Side Hit Men of 1977! That brings back memories! I know — Bonifacio is a much better fielder, the similarity scores are for offensive stats only. But it was funny to see, nonetheless.

[LDF]

First, I hope for all the best for Marco Scutaro. He seems like a good man. He has always been a tough competitor on the field, and that attitude will help in after his surgery.

 

That said, Brian Sabean, the Giants GM, is not going to "Panik" over losing Marco Scutaro. Their big loss this off-season was Pablo Sandoval. They are hoping that Casey McGehee will fill in at 3B, but they may be looking for a LH bat to take some at-bats when McGehee would be overmatched by a tough RH pitcher.

 

Sabean is the last GM to overpay for a player, let alone a player on the cusp of being over-the-hill like Ben Zobrist. Zobrist would be useful for the Giants (or the White Sox, or any of the other MLB teams), but he isn't worth sending Tampa Bay any top prospects.

 

I think Longoria still has some all-star caliber seasons left, and I would be willing to sacrifice a little of the White Sox future to bring him on board. But if somebody told me that Longoria was going to start a slow but steady decline upon entering his age 30 season, I be hard pressed to argue the point.

 

By a little, I mentioned that a package for Longoria could start with Trey Michalczewski, but now, I'm not so sure.

 

Michalczewski just finished his age 19 season at High-A Winston-Salem. If he spends half a season at Winston-Salem and half a season at Birmingham, he might be ready for a September call up at age 20 and a full-time MLB job at age 21. Do you send a ballplayer who could become the next Robin Ventura (Michalczewski) to Tampa Bay to get the back half of Buddy Bell's career (Longoria) complete with the cumulative nicks and dings that come with age? That's why Rick Hahn gets paid the big bucks!

 

Did you know that Bonifacio's most similar player through his age 29 season was Alan Bannister? Alan Bannister of the 40 errors for the South Side Hit Men of 1977! That brings back memories! I know — Bonifacio is a much better fielder, the similarity scores are for offensive stats only. But it was funny to see, nonetheless.

 

nice post, a lot of thought went into it. however ....

~~ i wish posters quit bringing up what will not happen. Longoria ship has sailed. Tpa

will not trade him.

~~ i mention Ben Zob b/c Tpa and according to their xmas rpt, will look into moving him

i figure why not, what will be the cost. now when i read this morning or SFO 2b getting

hurt, i also wonder out loud if SFO will go after him. then the rumor page starting posting

that SFO may be kicking the tires on Ben Zob as well.

~~ there is no panicking going on, the supply and demand will dictate what teams will be

willing to send in prospects / players and cash.

[BigFinn]

nice post, a lot of thought went into it. however ....

~~ i wish posters quit bringing up what will not happen. Longoria ship has sailed. Tpa

will not trade him.

~~ i mention Ben Zob b/c Tpa and according to their xmas rpt, will look into moving him

i figure why not, what will be the cost. now when i read this morning or SFO 2b getting

hurt, i also wonder out loud if SFO will go after him. then the rumor page starting posting

that SFO may be kicking the tires on Ben Zob as well.

~~ there is no panicking going on, the supply and demand will dictate what teams will be

willing to send in prospects / players and cash.

The "Panik" is Joe Panik, current 2B for the Giants. He hit .305/.343/.368 in Scutaro's stead. I don't think Brian Sabean is going to pay an arm and a leg to get Zobrist when he already has a ML 2B in Joe Panik. I don't think Zobrist has played any 3B during his career, so I don't think Sabean is looking for Zobrist to spell McGehee at 3B. The rumor mill about Sabean kicking the tires on Zobrist is just that: rumors.

 

I've seen posts in this thread that Zobrist is going to cost the White Sox Tim Anderson or Frankie Montas. That's not happening, either.

 

I've also heard rumors that the Mets are interested in Zobrist. He won't cost the Mets pitching prospect Noah Snydergaard or catching prospect Kevin Plawecki. Or at the least, the Mets would be stupid to pay such a high price for Zobrist.

 

It seems like some teams would like to explore the possibility of having Evan Longoria play 3B (the Giants fit that description to a T), and Tampa Bay would like to play a bait and switch game, "We have this lightly used Ben Zobrist, who's just as good as Evan Longoria, and we won't charge you all that much." The difference between Longoria and Zobrist is 4 years of playing time. Longoria is entering his age 30 season; Zobrist, his age 34 season. It's like the difference between paying $25 grand for a new car or $22 grand for a used car that's 4 years old. With my luck, I'd end up with the used car that needs an exhaust system overhaul 3 months past the warranty expiration date. I get that fixed and the starter goes. And don't get me started on the fuel injector! That's what Zobrist is—a nice player who's career is going to wind down real soon. Longoria still has some good years left, and if Tampa Bay is stripping down the team for a rebuild, Longoria should be the centerpiece of any trade to bring prospects into their system.

 

Under "things I found out looking up other things": I wanted to see the state of the Giants minor league system compared to the White Sox system to see which ball club could offer more for Longoria (in case that ship may yet sail), and I found this web gem! According to Baseball Prospectus, the Sox are just ahead of the Giants (21 vs. 22) with respect to their talent pool in the minor leagues, as of 2014. Then the author, Jason Parks, rates the systems as trending up, trending down, or steady. Twenty teams are trending up, six are trending down, and the rest are steady as she goes. This reminds me of Lake Woebegon, "where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average." I can't wait to see where the Sox rank this season, and whether we're still trending up!