He will adjust to having seen pitchers before.

 

He has one hole in his approach and that is junk down. Most hitters have a weakness. Miguel Cabrera likes to chase high heat. Problem for pitchers isn't knowing the weakness, it's not missing the spot. Oh, that fastball missed to Miggy: wasn't that up and wasn't that in, that's a double. That slider to Jose wasn't that down, and wasn't that sharp, that's in the seats or roped out to the gap.

 

I'm not worried about Jose, he's a rock. If anything, worst case, he'll regress down to 280/340/500 and be worth 3-4 WAR instead of 5. Hopefully the team around him picks up the slack.

Edited February 19, 201511 yr by chitownsportsfan

Jose Abreu being a top 10 hitter in the major leagues would make him better than 99.9% percent of hitters in the majors. I'd agree with Reddy and say that it's a very optimistic prediction. It's not an unrealistic prediction by any means necessary, but expecting him to merely be a top 50 hitter isn't unrealistic either, but it's quite a bit more pessimistic.

 

EDIT: OK, my math was off. He'd be better than 97% of regulars if we assumed that there would be exactly 9 hitters for all 30 teams in the majors. There will be more hitters than that, and 99.9% isn't actually as far off as you'd think, but it's not exactly correct either.

 

I'm glad you corrected this because it bothered me.

He will also have to adjust to pitchers who will be studying much more tape and finding his holes.

I think that (along with not being used to 145 games) was part of why he saw the power decrease in the 2nd half. That's why I think there's a decent chance we see more of his power reappear this year.

I'm glad you corrected this because it bothered me.

 

Sure it is. He's played one season. I'm optimistic, but regression is totally possible.

I'd be shocked if he regressed. The guy is one serious SOB about getting better. He's been in camp since Feb 4th. and he is prepared physically now for the longer season and preparing for an even longer season because of the playoffs. He had many doubters here for 2014. Don't make the same mistake for 2015.

I'd be shocked if he regressed. The guy is one serious SOB about getting better. He's been in camp since Feb 4th. and he is prepared physically now for the longer season and preparing for an even longer season because of the playoffs. He had many doubters here for 2014. Don't make the same mistake for 2015.

 

Another stroke in Abreau's favour might be that the serious Sox medical staff will have a heads up on his ankle.

 

I'd be shocked if he regressed. The guy is one serious SOB about getting better. He's been in camp since Feb 4th. and he is prepared physically now for the longer season and preparing for an even longer season because of the playoffs. He had many doubters here for 2014. Don't make the same mistake for 2015.

 

Agreed. I think he is a rare talent.