I started with Adam Eaton, and how to rank him among MLB's best lead off men.

 

Next up is Jose Abreu. Where does he rank just purely as a hitter, leaving out any defensive metrics.

 

For those who like WAR, Abreu ranked 6th as a rookie in offensive WAR. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/...f_top_ten.shtml

 

He was #1 in slugging at .581, second (to Victor Martinez) in OPS at .964, tied for 4th in HR at 36, 10th in OBP, and 6th in batting average.

 

And all of this as a "rookie" who had never played nearly as many games in a season as last year.

 

I'm sure you stat guys can dig up other numbers to look at.

 

The big question is how will he and the league adjust in his second season and beyond? My personal view is that he's just getting started.

 

What's your take?

Purely as a hitter, my semi-biased opinion is #1.

Well first off, don't use bWAR.

 

Abreu was 4th in offensive fWAR..... http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=19,d

 

And he was 4th in wRC+.... http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=17,d

Edited February 18, 201511 yr by Chilihead90

FWIW, B/R released their top 100 MLB players list today. Abreu was 26 (Anthony Rizzo was 19 or 20), Sale was 9, Samardzija was in the 40s, Quintana was 88, and the rest (Eaton, Melky, Robertson) were honorable mentions.

And as I said in the predictions thread for him, I think the 2nd half Abreu is closer in line to who he will be. I don't think he will ever hit 40 HR. I think he will be somewhere around 30 each year, but can hit .320+ and drive in nearly 120 runs now that he has Eaton and Melky, and maybe LaRoche in front of him.

Well first off, don't use bWAR.

 

Abreu was 4th in offensive fWAR..... http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=19,d

 

And he was 4th in wRC+.... http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=17,d

 

I prefer this method -- wRC+ specifically.

 

Now, there's a difference between what happened last year and what is likely to happen going forward. I think Abreu will be worse than last year but still very good.

I like bwar over fwar but to each their own.

 

With Bias aside I think it's really hard to say who Abreu really is. We need a another year of performance.

I think at the end of this year we'll be able to make a convincing argument that he's the best hitter in baseball.

I think at the end of this year we'll be able to make a convincing argument that he's the best hitter in baseball.

Barring injury that's my feeling as well.

I think at the end of this year we'll be able to make a convincing argument that he's the best hitter in baseball.

 

Based on a limited number of observations, and none live, I'm hoping he develops that intimidating look that Frank had. With Frank you were on the edge of your seat knowing something great would happen. Now it's edge of your seat expecting, not knowing.

I like bwar over fwar but to each their own.

 

Why? Also, with both pitchers and hitters?

If we are talking about pure hitting... Not defense, not base running etc. There are only a few guys that belong in this conversation. Right now I would say Miguel, but that is because I want to see Jose do it again.

Yeah, I think wRC+ is the way to go here. I also think he will probably take a bit of a drop.

 

In terms of first half Abreu vs second half Abreu, if we get either one I'll be very happy. It was great to see his average and his on base take such a big leap in the second half of the season, even if his home run rate dropped.

Based on a limited number of observations, and none live, I'm hoping he develops that intimidating look that Frank had. With Frank you were on the edge of your seat knowing something great would happen. Now it's edge of your seat expecting, not knowing.

 

I don't think that "look" is anything actually physical. It's just a case of track record.

I'll be optimistic and say Top 10. This year will be very indicative of the type of player he really is. He showed he can make some great adjustments last year - let's see if he can keep making them as the league has more and more video to go on.

I'll be optimistic and say Top 10.

To say that Abreu is a top ten pure hitter in baseball is not at all optimistic.

To say that Abreu is a top ten pure hitter in baseball is not at all optimistic.

Sure it is. He's played one season. I'm optimistic, but regression is totally possible.

Jose Abreu being a top 10 hitter in the major leagues would make him better than 99.9% percent of hitters in the majors. I'd agree with Reddy and say that it's a very optimistic prediction. It's not an unrealistic prediction by any means necessary, but expecting him to merely be a top 50 hitter isn't unrealistic either, but it's quite a bit more pessimistic.

 

EDIT: OK, my math was off. He'd be better than 97% of regulars if we assumed that there would be exactly 9 hitters for all 30 teams in the majors. There will be more hitters than that, and 99.9% isn't actually as far off as you'd think, but it's not exactly correct either.

I still don't even know if a second year tells you enough.

 

Puig was excellent for the first 3-4 months in 2014 and then fell off a cliff. His power numbers were also off, although he did get a lot of extra base hits.

 

We have three years to go on now with Trout, and he should have been MVP at least twice, if not all three years, arguably.

 

Some would argue Puig is Top 10-15 (future/potential-wise) and some might not have him until the 30's, 40's or 50's in their rankings. Hard to say yet.

 

Cabrera still deserves to be part of the conversation. A healthy Giancarlo Stanton if you're talking best power hitter. Trout, of course. Maybe McCutcheon, although he gets a lot of his value in other areas besides hitting. Cano, for the season he put up playing half his games in SEA.

 

Victor Martinez is unlikely to be there going forward, that's been discussed into the ground. Looking at some of the "younger" names, you have Brantley, Posey, Fr.Freeman, Josh Harrison, Carlos Gomez, Rendon, Starling Marte and Duda.

 

If you would have asked me a year or two ago, I would have said Carlos Santana of the Indians, but he was so bad in the first half it looked his his career was falling apart until he finally recovered. Kipnis, too.

 

 

 

 

I think at the end of this year we'll be able to make a convincing argument that he's the best hitter in baseball.

 

He's talking about Jose Abreu, not Brian Anderson

He's talking about Jose Abreu, not Brian Anderson

Oh my mistake. Well I think by the end of this season we can make a convincing argument that Abreu is one of the top 200 hitters in baseball.

Jose is easily a top 3 hitter in the league, imo. He had 10HR last April but, outside the power, he hit under .260 with an OBP just over .300 (and just 1 HR in May).

 

He absolutely dominated after that. Post-ASB he slashed 350/432/513. June, July, and August were just phenomenal months.

 

He's going to eventually find that perfect mix of average and power and I think it'll happen sooner than later. He could legitimately put up prime Miggy numbers this season or next. You look forward to his 4th season and beyond and I don't think it's too much of a stretch that he could draw parallels to prime Big Hurt.

 

As Sox fans who watch a lot of games, we saw that he was adjusting to the league's adjustments extremely quickly. He was a rookie....couldn't speak English....had money for the first time in his life....was working on getting his family here....there are plenty of excuses for him to have failed last season and he overcame them all. As he becomes more comfortable, the league is in trouble.

Jose is easily a top 3 hitter in the league, imo. He had 10HR last April but, outside the power, he hit under .260 with an OBP just over .300 (and just 1 HR in May).

 

He absolutely dominated after that. Post-ASB he slashed 350/432/513. June, July, and August were just phenomenal months.

 

He's going to eventually find that perfect mix of average and power and I think it'll happen sooner than later. He could legitimately put up prime Miggy numbers this season or next. You look forward to his 4th season and beyond and I don't think it's too much of a stretch that he could draw parallels to prime Big Hurt.

 

As Sox fans who watch a lot of games, we saw that he was adjusting to the league's adjustments extremely quickly. He was a rookie....couldn't speak English....had money for the first time in his life....was working on getting his family here....there are plenty of excuses for him to have failed last season and he overcame them all. As he becomes more comfortable, the league is in trouble.

 

Yea I agree with this, for all the talk of his 2nd half "power outage" is the major story wasn't the lack of power but that he turned into prime Edgar Martinez with the OBP. Frankly, I'd probably take that 350/432/513 line over his 260/300/600ish line from the first half. Yea the power was done, but everything else was way, way up, including the patience.

 

I feel quite confident saying that he is up there with the best hitters in MLB entering his 2nd season. Now, that doesn't mean he'll post the 3rd best wRC+ in baseball like last year (behind only Cutch and Trout) but it does mean that if he says healthy he has a shot to duplicate that success or even surpass it.

Edited February 19, 201511 yr by chitownsportsfan

Sure it is. He's played one season. I'm optimistic, but regression is totally possible.

 

He will also have to adjust to pitchers who will be studying much more tape and finding his holes.

He will also have to adjust to pitchers who will be studying much more tape and finding his holes.

 

He will adjust to having seen pitchers before.