Looking for a stat that will help explain the demise & resurgence of Ritchie, Koch, & Loaiza I came across : ER/fcn(K-BB).

Ideally it would ER/fcn(ST-B ) but that's too much work to compute.

 

How the fcn works:

If (K-BB) < 0 then fcn = 1

 

This is really a measure of dominance in a pitcher.

 

Let's see how the SOX & former SOX matchup:

...........95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

Koch n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.88 0.55 1.68 0.72 2.14

E-LO 3.3 2.23 2.31 4.08 1.65 1.26 1.51 1.96 0.44

Foulke n/a n/a 1.68 0.81 0.26 0.42 0.40 0.56 0.29

Ritchie n/a n/a 2.38 1.25 1.26 1.37 1.43 3.6 3.2

Wright n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 42 1.74 6.13

Garland n/an/a n/a n/a n/a 25 8 3.38 2.1

Buehrle n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1.33 1.04 1.30 1.98

Colon n/a n/a 2.81 1.06 1.06 0.71 0.91 0.96 0.90

K Wells n/a n/a n/a n/a 1.14 5.08 1.87 1.25 1.21

J Fogg n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.21 2.14 2.16

 

Re-signing COLON is a must. Look at his dominance numbers in the past 5 yrs.

 

In retrospect KW never should have traded for Foulke.

Leading into 2003, Foulke's dominance exceeded that of Kock in every yr head to head. His 2003 season has been the most dominant to date as he is a sure bet to

win the Rolaid Man of Relief award.

 

The Ritchie trade was horrible. Ritchie had better dominance numbers than Wells

but he also digressed in his numbers. Kip had a major breakthru drastically improving on his numbers. Likewise Kip's 99 #'s were better than any year of Ritchie's. The trend was that Kip would improve & Ritchie would get worse & that's exactly what happened. The next big mistake in the trade was Josh Fogg. Look at Wright's vs Foggs numbers. Grant it Fogg had limited exposure, but he showed dominance whereas Wright showed lack of control. Wright should have been traded over Fogg.

 

Ironically, Garland has shown no greater dominance than Fogg. But Garland's improvement is the best indicator that the best is yet to come.

 

I would imagine that this stat is a pretty good indicator for predicting mLs as well.

 

Looking to the future:

Cotts ML (12), mL (0.34)

Stewart ML (17), mL (4.5)

Honel mL (0.59)

Cooper mL (1.09)

Diaz mL (1.02)

Ginter mL (0.77)

Kohl mL (1.15)

Majew mL (0.78)

Munoz mL (0.81)

Porzio mL (0.91)

Rauch mL (0.97)

Adkins mL (2.16)

 

AA : Barons ( only considering candidates with 2.0 or less dominance rating)

Bajenaru, Jeff 0.68

Castillo, Carlos 0.85

*Cotts, Neal 0.35

Dunn, Scott 0.22

Dunn, Scott 0.40

Eason, Clay 0.6

*Meaux, Ryan 0.38

Meyer, Jake 1.13

Pacheco, Enemencio 0.77

*Phillips, Heath 1.75

*Ring, Royce 0.37

Smith, Matt 2.73

Stumm, Jason 2

Wylie, Mitch 1.22

Yofu, Tetsu 0.75

 

Some were traded, but I find that list promising.

As a general rule of thumb, the SOX should not bring someone up or add them to the rotation unless they have dominance rating of < 2.0. I really think that should be the cutoff.

 

Koch should not have been brought up but I understand the politics involved in attempting to get him back on track to orchestrate a trade in the offseason.

 

It's not perfect because dominance in the mL might not translate to dominance in the ML. The number of arms that excel in the mL & fail in the ML far exceeds the number that succeed in the ML. But of those who do succeed they mostly come from the group that dominated in the mL. It's no guarantee but increases your odds.

 

Danny Wright has Kip Wells potential.

It's possible his 1.74 6.13 route could follow Wells route of 1.14 5.08.

The potential is certainly there & maybe winter ball will bring it out.

If they don't sign Colon then who takes his place? Simple question. They should sign him because he is far from over the hill and deserves more time with this team.

No way! HE DOESNT SHOW ANY HEART OR EFFORT WHEN HE PITCHES!

If they don't sign Colon, then my guess is they'd make a push at Ponson. I don't think they lose Colon though. He may be signed before free agency starts. I don't think he's looking for a huge payday, but just a medium term contract at a good price (8 to 10 mill)

Colon will be on Boston, NY or possibly the Padres, who are looking to spend big this offseason, next year.

 

I don't see us resigning him, as we won't be able to offer the package required.

 

In terms of the importance of resigning him, I think with Loaiza, Buehrle and Garland we have a solid 3 for next season. I expect Cotts to get a shot at the rotation, as well as our other minor leaguers (Rauch, Diaz).

 

The other starter will probably be a FA signing, which could be either a big name or just a 5th starter. If the Sox decide to ante up to Mags this offseason and try to keep him long term instead of waiting until after 2004, I don't see them signing a big name FA pitcher.

 

Here are my top priorities this offseason if I'm KW:

 

1) Resign Alomar to a 2 or 3 year deal at around $3 million per season.

2) Sign Magglio Ordonez to a long-term deal.

3) Offer Mark Buehrle a 4 year deal, which would add an additional year onto the 3 we already have him for after next season.

4) Look for another starting pitcher to take the place of Colon, who likely (IMO) won't be coming back to town next season.

5) Acquire a centerfielder who can actually field the position and hit as well.

Colon will be on Boston, NY or possibly the Padres, who are looking to spend big this offseason, next year.

Unfortunately I agree with you, I would really love to see bart back with us next year, but it just won't happen.

JUGGERNAUT...Games are not pitched on paper. We do not have mathematical equations out there batting for us. You seemed to be obsessed with this sort of stuff.

Just throwing a name out there....but isn't Kevin Millwood a FA next year?

No way! HE DOESNT SHOW ANY HEART OR EFFORT WHEN HE PITCHES!

5) Acquire a centerfielder who can actually field the position and hit as well.

Who would that be? Personally, I like Carl.

5) Acquire a centerfielder who can actually field the position and hit as well.

Who would that be? Personally, I like Carl.

Umm you saw the "can field the position" part right"?

If we want to sign a big name FA picture I would start with Colon. I like the guy, I like his laid back approach and getting the job done. Way is it that it always seems easier to sign someone elses guy?

 

Still I expect to see him in Yankmee pinstripes next spring.

I could also see him moving to Atlanta. Of course corg would love to see the tub of goo rounding the bases like a herd of elephants.

If KW has a brain & I believe he does then they will at least offer type A arbitration for Colon as his stats will put him in that category. So if they can't resign him they should at least get a comp pick for him.

 

But I think you are wrong. I think the SOX will win the division & Colon will be the best starter in the post season. That alone will create tremendous pressure to keep him.

 

Forget Milwood. PHI will break the bank to keep him.

Of course corg would love to see the tub of goo rounding the bases like a herd of elephants.