Royals interested in Jay Bruce?

[BlackSox13]

 

http://www.chatsports.com/kansas-city-roya...ex-gordon-25312

 

"The Royals need a left-handed-hitting outfielder to replace Alex Gordon, who looks like he will price himself out of Kansas City. Further, the Royals currently have Jarrod Dyson and Paulo Orlando penciled in right field and left field, which suggests they will make an upgrade in at least one of those spots. Enter Bruce, an already-proven commodity who could hit in the middle of the Royals' lineup and provide power to a mostly contact-oriented lineup. Also, Bruce comes with a reasonable salary of $12.5 million for this season plus a $13 million club option for 2017."

 

I've been wondering if there was a market for Bruce, looks like its at least possible there is. Not sure the level of interest KC actually has but its an interesting read and could provide some hope for those Sox fans interested in signing Gordon.

[Jose Abreu]

I've been wondering if there was a market for Bruce, looks like its at least possible there is. Not sure the level of interest KC actually has but its an interesting read and could provide some hope for those Sox fans interested in signing Gordon.

Either that, or a smoke screen to get Gordon to accept the KC offer.

[caulfield12]

Well, on one hand, the Royals already have a relationship with Jocketty due to the Cueto trade...and obviously the Reds are familiar with the KC system.

 

That said, KC isn't going to give up very much talent...if anything (the asking price was Zach Wheeler supposedly last summer)...this is going to be more of a clearing out the closets and starting over thing for the Reds, who have already parted ways with Frazier and Chapman and look to move Bruce and Phillips as well.

 

Considering the buyout, you're talking $13.5 million for one season, or only $1 million more than they wasted on Alex Rios.

 

Bruce has such weird career numbers, though. He's had two huge years, with 4.5 WAR in 2010 and 5.1 WAR in 2013. If you average the other 5-6 years of his career, you're getting a WAR of something like 0.7 or 0.8. Over the last 5 years, you're looking at 1.6, with a mode of 1.4.

 

Optimistically, that has a value of around $10-11 million, so they would be asking for $2-3 million back from CINCY and Bruce to save them the $11 million or whatever for the remainder of his 2016 salary.

 

Otherwise, you're going after A.Jackson and Parra and piecing two outfield platoons together...allowing you to alternate Dyson (LH), Parra (LH) and Jackson, who's STILL only 28 years old and carries a 729 OPS against lefties over the last three years.

 

Parra gives you a 777 against righties and Dyson a 703 against righties.

 

On the plus side, if Parra's numbers recently are anomalies, you might still have the best defensive outfield in baseball and even more versatility.

 

For a higher price, Denard Span has been even more dangerous against RHP, an 800 OPS over the last three years...and no QO attached, thus no pick lost. But he's probably going to cost in that $12-15 million range like Dexter Fowler (who also has the pick attached), so unless his market drops, Jackson and Parra are the two most logical choices. They won't go after Fowler since they need to start rebuilding for 2018 and beyond.

 

 

Of course, the argument is that you might end up spending $15 million on Jackson/Parra, so why not spend $17.5 million on Alex Gordon. That's where you get into the length of the contract arguments, and cost/benefit of having Parra/Jackson for 2-3 seasons instead of Gordon for 4-5.

 

Plus both those guys are age 28, and Gordon's four years older. And both similarly fit the mode of "defense first-minded" players.

 

 

So you have three choices, for example:

 

Bruce for one year + buyout=$13.5 million (+ Dyson/Orlando platoon)

Parra/Dyson/Austin Jackson platoon system for 2-3 years (let's say $37.5-40 million as an estimate)

Alex Gordon for 4-5 years and $70-90 million (+ Dyson/Orlando platoon)

 

Orlando has almost even splits, 719 vs LHP/705 vs. RHP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BlackSox13]

Either that, or a smoke screen to get Gordon to accept the KC offer.

I definitely think that's part of it. With so many outfielders available its easy for teams to play the bluff game.

 

Caulfield. I can see KC having genuinely interest in Bruce due to his power, salary and limited commitment of two years but I doubt KC would give Jocketty two of their three top prospects. Of course Jocketty is aiming high like he should but how big of a market is there for Bruce? Jocketty has to come down in price if he seriously wants to move Bruce.

[caulfield12]

I definitely think that's part of it. With so many outfielders available its easy for teams to play the bluff game.

 

Caulfield. I can see KC having genuinely interest in Bruce due to his power, salary and limited commitment of two years but I doubt KC would give Jocketty two of their three top prospects. Of course Jocketty is aiming high like he should but how big of a market is there for Bruce? Jocketty has to come down in price if he seriously wants to move Bruce.

 

Bruce fits their time frame perfectly, the next two years...but so do CarGo, Ethier/Crawford, Dickerson or Blackmon, etc.

 

It's a buyer's market right now, at least in terms of outfielders.

 

If I'm KC, I am not even looking at it like a two year deal...it's one year for $12.5 million and the $1 million buyout...because Bruce has fluctuated up and down so much the last five years.

 

I'm also not parting with one of my top five prospects, let alone 2-3 prospects unless they're all lower tier guys.

 

The Reds basically have ZERO purpose or rationale to keep Bruce and Phillips at this point...the falloff in attendance already started happening with Cueto, Leake and Frazier, etc. And they do still have Votto, he's going to be the only homegrown star left, like Freeman in ATL.

 

 

Otherwise, I'm just going to pay Span/Jackson/Parra and not lose a draft pick, preserving the remainders of the farm system (after the Cueto and Zobrist deals) for the rebuild beginning in 2018.

Edited December 29, 2015 by caulfield12

[BlackSox13]

Bruce fits their time frame perfectly, the next two years...but so do CarGo, Ethier/Crawford, Dickerson or Blackmon, etc.

 

It's a buyer's market right now, at least in terms of outfielders.

 

If I'm KC, I am not even looking at it like a two year deal...it's one year for $12.5 million and the $1 million buyout...because Bruce has fluctuated up and down so much the last five years.

 

I'm also not parting with one of my top five prospects, let alone 2-3 prospects unless they're all lower tier guys.

 

The Reds basically have ZERO purpose or rationale to keep Bruce and Phillips at this point...the falloff in attendance already started happening with Cueto, Leake and Frazier, etc. And they do still have Votto, he's going to be the only homegrown star left, like Freeman in ATL.

 

 

Otherwise, I'm just going to pay Span/Jackson/Parra and not lose a draft pick, preserving the remainders of the farm system (after the Cueto and Zobrist deals) for the rebuild beginning in 2018.

Pretty much agree with all this. Can't see there being a big market for Bruce so if Jocketty drops his price to something reasonable I think KC goes for it. If KC is to give up top prospects they will certainly do better than Bruce.

 

If KC goes the FA route I think Parra makes the most sense and fits the mold of what they look for in their players. I think KC's interest in Parra is genuine and likely comes down to the amount of years Parra is looking for. KC doesn't strike me as the type to go more than three years for Parra but I could be wrong.

[caulfield12]

Yeah, they're going to press for two year deals with options (club/mutual) for that third year in all likelihood.

 

It might work for Parra, but Austin Jackson probably wants to rebuild his value with a one-year deal.

 

 

That's their "cheap" route, you go with an outfield of Cain/Parra/Dyson and Orlando as the 4th.

 

Then you take the rest of that money and put it into one more starting pitcher (probably a lefty unless Duffy stays in the rotation to go with Tim Collins coming back from surgery) and/or wait on Ian Desmond or Fowler to fall into your hands after the first month of the season. Then you can add pitching at the trade deadline again.

 

Kazmir, Chen and Gallardo are that next tier of pitching available...in all likelihood too expensive.

Edited December 29, 2015 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

There is still a part of me that is surprised the White Sox didn't end up with Bruce in a larger Cincy deal.

[Dick Allen]

I hope the Royals get Bruce. He sucks.

[LDF]

I hope the Royals get Bruce. He sucks.

 

i agree big time on bruce.

[Hatchetman]

There is still a part of me that is surprised the White Sox didn't end up with Bruce in a larger Cincy deal.

 

was wondering the same.

[blackmooncreeping]

i agree big time on bruce.

Would love to see the Royals downgrade to Bruce, no doubt. They must be readying for Gordo to bolt, whether it's the Sox or otherwise. I don't see a possible Jay Bruce acquisition impacting team Gordon in any way, in terms of making them sh*t or get off the pot.

[BlackSox13]

Yeah, they're going to press for two year deals with options (club/mutual) for that third year in all likelihood.

 

It might work for Parra, but Austin Jackson probably wants to rebuild his value with a one-year deal.

 

That's their "cheap" route, you go with an outfield of Cain/Parra/Dyson and Orlando as the 4th.

 

Then you take the rest of that money and put it into one more starting pitcher (probably a lefty unless Duffy stays in the rotation to go with Tim Collins coming back from surgery) and/or wait on Ian Desmond or Fowler to fall into your hands after the first month of the season. Then you can add pitching at the trade deadline again.

 

Kazmir, Chen and Gallardo are that next tier of pitching available...in all likelihood too expensive.

Maybe that makes Jackson more enticing to KC? A one year stop-gap perhaps. I had not thought of it that way but from KC's POV maybe Jackson on a one year makes alot of sense.

 

There is still a part of me that is surprised the White Sox didn't end up with Bruce in a larger Cincy deal.

Proof that Hahn and not KW is running this off season.

 

Seriously, I kinda thought the same thing since Bruce plays RF and is a left handed power bat. I'm glad the Sox didn't though. I was really surprised with the Frazier deal because for some reason I thought for sure Ethier was heading to the Sox. Sometimes those gut feelings are really just full of s***.