StrangeSox Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Yeah, his pick-ups in NY last night make it much more likely than not that he'll have enough delegates to win on the 1st ballot (unless the rules committee manages to find ways to screw him over). He's going to crush everything out East, and he's polling really well in California. Him doing really poorly in Indiana is I think the only way he falls short at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted April 20, 2016 Author Share Posted April 20, 2016 Big win in New York for Trump, got all but 3 delegates it looks like. But he also lost some previously owned ones to Cruz in other states. We also had Colorado and North Dakota finish their messes. Here is where it stands now... Things that have changed are in bold face. BASELINES Total GOP delegates: 2,472 Party-level delegates - unbound: 168 So, voting-linked delegates: 2,304 50.00001% of 2,304 is rounded to 1,153 Total ending delegates to clinch: 1,237 Delegates to clinch a convention-proof nomination: 1,321 CURRENT STANDINGS - total so far: 1,737 awarded (75.4% of voting-linked total) (leaving off the uncommitted/supers for now) Trump: 842 Cruz: 562 Kasich: 147 ---out... Rubio: 171 Carson: 8 Bush: 4 Fiorina: 1 Huckabee: 1 Paul: 1 PERCENT OF REMAINING DELEGATES NEEDED FOR CONV-PROOF MAJORITY (623 voting-linked delegates remaining) Trump: 479 delegates (76.9% of total) Others: mathematically impossible PERCENT OF REMAINING DELEGATES NEEDED FOR REGULAR MAJORITY (623 voting-linked delegates remaining) Trump: 395 delegates (63.4% of total) Others: mathematically impossible 443 of the remaining 623 voting-linked delegates are WTA, so 180 proportional delegates of some form (though some of those are Winner Take Most, which is a hybrid of sorts). Now, using recent national polls from April among the remaining candidates among LV (and I spread the few % points of undecideds proportionally), you get these likely proportional outcomes... DELEGATE COUNTS PLUS REMAINING PROPORTIONAL USING % ABOVE... Trump (applying 45% to remaining prop and totalling): 842 + 81 = 923 Cruz (32%): 562 + 58 = 620 Kasich (23%): 147 + 41 = 189 NEED TO WIN IN WTA STATES TO CLINCH PRIOR TO NOMINATION Trump: Must win 398 of 443 delegates for convention-proof, Must win 314 of 443 for regular majority number from voting-linked delegates Everyone else: Mathematically impossible if proportional trends continue Basically, if Cruz and/or Kasich win any one 1 of CA, NJ or IN... or any 2 of CA, IN, CT, NJ, MD, NE, WA, NM... or any 3 of the 17 states remaining... it's a contested convention. WILDCARDS --The next slate is heavily favoring Trump, but in May it is much more towards Cruz and Kasich strengths. The Tuesday slate includes about 120 bound delegates. UP NEXT The remaining April slate... APRIL 26: Pennsylvania (71, but 54 unbound)... Last poll: Trump 46%, Cruz 26%, Kasich 23% Maryland (38)... April poll average: Trump 45%, Cruz 28%, Kasich 22% Connecticut (28)... Last poll: Trump 50%, Kasich 26%, Cruz 17% RI (19)... No polls in last 2 months Delaware (16)... No polls at all Then it's May: IN... NE & WV... OR... WA. And the last few in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrle>Wood Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 (edited) You put too much emphasis on Indiana in that post. He could lose that with 0 delegates (he'll get some and perhaps win, but let's assume 0) and still be in fine shape. Assuming he wins California and NJ like he should, he would just need 50-70 delegates out of the 222 available in Nebraska, WV, Oregon, Washington, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Hardly asking a lot for the front runner. Edited April 20, 2016 by Buehrle>Wood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted April 20, 2016 Author Share Posted April 20, 2016 QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Apr 20, 2016 -> 01:17 PM) You put too much emphasis on Indiana in that post. He could lose that with 0 delegates (he'll get some and perhaps win, but let's assume 0) and still be in fine shape. Assuming he wins California and NJ like he should, he would just need 50-70 delegates out of the 222 available in Nebraska, WV, Oregon, Washington, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Hardly asking a lot for the front runner. If he loses Indiana, it guarantees he can't win enough delegates for a majority without the various unbound delegates. That means a convention fight. And we know how poorly Trump handles that political ground game aspect. You're focused on 1237, but even if he reaches that, you need to consider how many of those are unbound and could switch. So far, we've already seen that any process requiring a ground game or insider game has been terrible for Trump. If he reaches enough delegates that are bound to reach 1237, then he can avoid the convention fight, but it's unlikely he pulls that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrle>Wood Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 But very few of Trumps current delegates are unbound (basically the ones from the territories). So very little switching can occur even in such a scenario. Its Cruz delegates who are unbound. Even in the scenario I listed above I was essentially already giving cruz the 54 remaining delegates that are not bound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted April 20, 2016 Author Share Posted April 20, 2016 QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Apr 20, 2016 -> 01:29 PM) But very few of Trumps current delegates are unbound (basically the ones from the territories). So very little switching can occur even in such a scenario. Its Cruz delegates who are unbound. Even in the scenario I listed above I was essentially already giving cruz the 54 remaining delegates that are not bound. Most of PA's are unbound. Trump probably wins there. And then there are the 3 RNC delegates for each state in many states, where there is more wiggle room too. What I'm saying is... Trump is under 1237: Contested convention Trump is 1237 to about 1320: Contested convention Trump 1321 or higher (give or take): He wins no matter what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 I can't imagine any way in which 3 could happen. The odds of way 3 happening are about the same as the odds of my wife agreeing to a 3 way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrle>Wood Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Apr 20, 2016 -> 01:33 PM) Most of PA's are unbound. Trump probably wins there. And then there are the 3 RNC delegates for each state in many states, where there is more wiggle room too. What I'm saying is... Trump is under 1237: Contested convention Trump is 1237 to about 1320: Contested convention Trump 1321 or higher (give or take): He wins no matter what Where are you getting the 83 delegate difference there? That infers to me Trump has 83 unbound delegates but he doesn't have near that many I wouldn't think. Or are you saying the 83 is PAs potential unbound delegates+Trumps current unbound delegates? That makes more sense, but in the scenarios I laid out in was giving those all to Cruz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted April 21, 2016 Author Share Posted April 21, 2016 QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Apr 21, 2016 -> 09:20 AM) Where are you getting the 83 delegate difference there? That infers to me Trump has 83 unbound delegates but he doesn't have near that many I wouldn't think. Or are you saying the 83 is PAs potential unbound delegates+Trumps current unbound delegates? That makes more sense, but in the scenarios I laid out in was giving those all to Cruz. There are 2304 BOUND delegates, and 168 unbound. If someone gets 1237 of that number, they are golden. But they can also win if they get over half the bound delegates (1153) PLUS 168 other bound delegates to overcome a 168-delegate swing even if they lost them all. That's the 1321 number in total delegates to reach to win that other way. Not that it matters much, because in the end I don't think Trump gets 1237, let alone 1321. It's possible, but things have to go very well for him in a bunch of states (in May particularly) that he's not likely to do well in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrle>Wood Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Apr 21, 2016 -> 11:43 AM) There are 2304 BOUND delegates, and 168 unbound. If someone gets 1237 of that number, they are golden. But they can also win if they get over half the bound delegates (1153) PLUS 168 other bound delegates to overcome a 168-delegate swing even if they lost them all. That's the 1321 number in total delegates to reach to win that other way. Not that it matters much, because in the end I don't think Trump gets 1237, let alone 1321. It's possible, but things have to go very well for him in a bunch of states (in May particularly) that he's not likely to do well in. Okay I see what you're saying but I believe it's still a very flawed way of looking at it because it assumes all unbound delegates are aligned with 1 person. The truth is they are all already accounted for in a lot of cases (Pennsylvania not withstanding). Trump does not need to worry about all those unbound delegates because they're already aligned with Ted Cruz for the most part. They are inlcuded in Cruz delegate total. Trumps delegates are almost all bound to him counting towards his 845 number. He needs to worry about 1237+how many unbound he ends up with. That number is closer to 1260 then it is 1321. Also, almost everyone agrees now that Trump has an easy path to 1237. Even in worst case scenarios (like somehow getting 0 in Indiana) he should still easily get there. I'd like to see your path where he doesn't get to 1237. It would have to involve losing California (where he's ahead by 18) and essentially every state aside from New Jersey in May/June. Here is my best guess at a worst case scenario for him: Pennsylvania: 17 out of 71 (wins state, loses every other delegate) Connecticut: 22/28 Delaware: 16/16 (wta) Maryland: 30/38 Rhode Island: 14/19 Indiana: 10/57 Nebraska: 12/36 WVa: 28/34 (direct elect) Oregon: 10/28 Washington: 14/44 Montana: 0/27 (wta) New Jersey: 51/51 (wta) New Mexico: 18/24 South Dakota: 0/29 (wta) California: 150/172 Even in this scenario where I have him not just losing, but getting crushed in Indiana, Nebraska, Oregon, Montana, Washington and South Dakota as well as underperforming big time this Tuesday, he still gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrle>Wood Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Delegate count so far tonight: Trump-100 Kasich-5 Cruz-0 Trump already ahead of my worst case scenario with 65 delegates not accounted for yet tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 (edited) Kasich is still in fourth place for total delegates. Its increasingly likely that trump will have the nomination outright going into the convention Edited April 27, 2016 by StrangeSox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrle>Wood Posted April 27, 2016 Share Posted April 27, 2016 Yep. It's essentially over after tonight. Trump gets 112 delegates out of a possible 118. Only way to stop him is an all out blitz in California, and even then it would be very tough. He should finish with well over 1300 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Apr 20, 2016 -> 01:23 PM) If he loses Indiana, it guarantees he can't win enough delegates for a majority without the various unbound delegates. That means a convention fight. And we know how poorly Trump handles that political ground game aspect. You're focused on 1237, but even if he reaches that, you need to consider how many of those are unbound and could switch. So far, we've already seen that any process requiring a ground game or insider game has been terrible for Trump. If he reaches enough delegates that are bound to reach 1237, then he can avoid the convention fight, but it's unlikely he pulls that off. I'm not sure what else to say about this thread but I am somewhat impressed that you kept it running all the way through April 20. This isn't laughing or taunting as much as half way to a postmortem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lostfan Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Carly Fiorina managed to lose twice in the same race. Nobody has ever done that before. I'm impressed. Maybe Trump will name her his VP and make it a hat trick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 QUOTE (lostfan @ May 3, 2016 -> 11:45 PM) Carly Fiorina managed to lose twice in the same race. Nobody has ever done that before. I'm impressed. Maybe Trump will name her his VP and make it a hat trick? Ted Cruz knew he was going to have to fire a bunch of people very soon, and he picked the right person for the job! Even though trump essentially has the nomination locked up at this point, there could still be some interesting shenanigans at the convention over the party platform and the VP nomination. Delegates are unbound for both of those, and Cruz did manage to weasel in a lot of his supporters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 QUOTE (StrangeSox @ May 4, 2016 -> 08:17 AM) Ted Cruz knew he was going to have to fire a bunch of people very soon, and he picked the right person for the job! Even though trump essentially has the nomination locked up at this point, there could still be some interesting shenanigans at the convention over the party platform and the VP nomination. Delegates are unbound for both of those, and Cruz did manage to weasel in a lot of his supporters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 a compilation of Nate Silver headlines regarding Trump: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrle>Wood Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Nate Silver the statistician needs to fire Nate Silver the pundit. The shine is off his luster now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Kasich to announce he's ending his campaign. It's all Trump now. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/john-kasich...atest-news.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Day 1 of the General Election campaign: Trump to stick with Muslim ban Donald Trump stood by his call to ban Muslims from entering the U.S. Wednesday, saying he doesn’t care if it hurts him in the general election. “I don’t care if it hurts me,” the presumptive GOP presidential nominee said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” Wednesday. “I’m doing the right thing when I do this. And whether it’s Muslim or whether it’s something else, I mean, I have to do the right thing, and that’s the way I’ve been guided.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrle>Wood Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 (edited) QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ May 4, 2016 -> 08:52 AM) Nate Silver the statistician needs to fire Nate Silver the pundit. The shine is off his luster now. He read this post and took my advice. "How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump" By Nate Silver https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-...n-donald-trump/ Respect, Nate Edited May 18, 2016 by Buehrle>Wood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2HH Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 According to the AP, Trump has the delegates to clinch the nomination as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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