So a few things happened since a couple weeks ago:

- The British central bank showed that they would be more capable than they were in the financial crisis to avert crisis

- All pro-Brexit politicians somehow exited stage left

- The early EU pressure that a decision be made right away then pulled back to waiting until after home EU elections

- Theresa May said that the article would not be executed unless Scotland voted yes (which of course, Scotland voted against Brexit initially).

 

Now, are people appropriately accounting for the risk this actually happens? Probably not. But all signs are pointing to a lack of conviction after the vote to pull this off. Especially with the realization that the Northern Ireland peace accords would be screwed with Brexit, or there would just be one open border that basically undermines cloing borders anyway.

 

 

http://qz.com/747159/after-the-brexit-vote...looks-terrible/

 

Uncertainty affecting any investment.

Article 50 vote delayed for as much as 3 more years

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/polit...y-a7189851.html

After the current PM Theresa May had signaled a few months back that she was looking to do a "hard" Brexit as soon as next spring with her directing the whole thing, the UK high court has ruled that Parliament must approve a Brexit measure.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/n...ules?CMP=twt_gu

 

 

Brexit vote: Theresa May wins Commons approval to trigger Article 50 as Labour's Clive Lewis resigns

Scotland making more Independence noise again

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/polit...u-a7626746.html

 

Northern Ireland party Sinn Fein calling for unification vote.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/iri...-féin-1.3009166

Theresa May to trigger article 50 on 29 March

Article 50 triggered

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39431070

Scotland making more Independence noise again

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/polit...u-a7626746.html

 

Northern Ireland party Sinn Fein calling for unification vote.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/iri...-féin-1.3009166

 

 

Sorry to be a pedantic ballbag, but Sinn Féin are an all-Ireland party.

Article 50 triggered

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39431070

Interesting how it changes companies. My wife's employer (Zurich insurance) has a major branch based out of London. Once Brexit happens, their ability to do business in the EU changes. They laid off 25% of their employees in Schaumburg (North american branch HQ) because they will need to shift a significant part of the business to an EU based home.

The Tory lead in the polls has been collapsing ahead of next month's election. It will be pretty interesting if calling the snap election blows up in May's face spectacularly, much in the same way that Brexit blew up on Cameron.

 

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/867847777040183298

Exclusive: Tory lead over Labour down to FIVE points in new YouGov/Times poll conducted Wed/ Thu this week, down from 9 points last Thur/Fri

Still slipping

 

Britain Elects @britainelects

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 42% (-1)

LAB: 39% (+3)

LDEM: 7% (-2)

UKIP: 4% (-)

 

(via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)

 

It's now plausible that Labour and Lib-Dems and maybe SNP? will be able to form a coalition government and kick the Tories out of power, thought it'd be a pretty shaky coalition.

Can't imagine lib-dems playing nice with labour.

yikes

 

Theresa May

@theresa_may

I'm clear: if human rights laws get in the way of tackling extremism and terrorism, we will change those laws to keep British people safe.

Lead has shifted finally again....+1 going in the direction of May's party after sliding for quite awhile, looking like a comfortable 5-7% point margin of victory, terror attack might have stopped all of Corbyn's momentum.

Edited June 7, 20178 yr by caulfield12

Britain Elects‏

@britainelects

Follow

 

EXIT POLL:

 

Con: 314

Lab: 266

SNP: 34

LDem: 14

 

 

 

Amazing. Finally some good news.

 

 

Dave Weigel ✔ @daveweigel

Trump endorses Le Pen: She loses by 32 points.

 

Trump cozies up to May: She blows a 25-point lead and maybe loses the leadership.

4:09 PM - 8 Jun 2017

 

These are just the exit polls, which are typically fairly reliable but Conservatives could still win a small majority here. Either way, this is a spectacular failure on their part and is going to make the Brexit negotiations that much more chaotic. Who knows if May will retain leadership even if they squeak out a majority.

Good night for Labour so far, pretty bad night for Conservatives all things considered, and a brutal night for single-issue parties with UKIP and SNP losing tons of voters. Scottish Independence is dead dead dead, as is May as PM.

 

Really highlights how important an individual vote can be, especially when you have appropriately sized constituencies. Some races were decided by 1 or 2 votes. MP's represent ~70k people though rather than ~700k that districts in the US have.

@JStein_Vox

 

In 2015, Miliband won the youth vote by 15 points.

In 2016, Clinton won it by 18 points.

 

Tonight's exit poll: Corbyn won it by 44 points

Cool breakdown from NYT on how Britain voted, with this nice graphic showing the shifts. Labour picked up a bunch in England while Conservatives stopped some of the bleeding by carving up rural Scotland.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06...s-analysis.html

 

Red is Labour, Blue is Conservatives.

 

One of the notable Labour gains last night was Canterbury, which has gone Conservative since 1825. The closest analog would be Democrats winning Oklahoma panhandle seats unexpectedly.

Cool breakdown from NYT on how Britain voted, with this nice graphic showing the shifts. Labour picked up a bunch in England while Conservatives stopped some of the bleeding by carving up rural Scotland.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06...s-analysis.html

 

Red is Labour, Blue is Conservatives.

 

One of the notable Labour gains last night was Canterbury, which has gone Conservative since 1825. The closest analog would be Democrats winning Oklahoma panhandle seats unexpectedly.

Interesting on how Northern Ireland politics are changing. More with labour on the new vote as well as the new PM.

Interesting on how Northern Ireland politics are changing. More with labour on the new vote as well as the new PM.

 

That's actually a different shade, DUP, which I think is pledged with the Tories.