Dominikk85

The sox didn't have a great start at 21-20 but good news is it could have been worse. Sox have scored 148 runs and allowed 170 which should have been an 18-23 record. The bad run differential is mainly created by an underperforming offense (91 ops+ combined) while pitching has been fine especially considering the injuries (103 era+). Now you could also see that negatively as you could expect regression but it also means sox have won some extra games they shouldn't have won and those games still count. Now it is important that the offense is turning it around. Pitching will be fine as long there aren't too many injuries but grandal (56 ops+), jose (93 ops+), moncada (56 ops+) and eloy (72 ops+) simply need to turn it around, then there even can be some regression by tim and robert and sox should easily win the division. But they just need at least 3 out of those "big 4" to be above average hitters, especially eloy, grandal and moncada can't hit below replacement level. Considering that 3 of their stars have hit like billy hamilton so far it could have been much worse for the sox. I think at least jose should heat up soon like he often does in the summer (even though age is some concern) and grandal is just a streaky hitter who will have months were he hits like 0.100 but in the end his numbers will be fine. With moncada and eloy it probably hinges on health and being 100% fit.

Robert should have left that to pollock who had a better angle. Robert is a great defender but he was a bit to eager here albeit playing between sheets and vaughn all the time probably creates that I have to get to every ball mentality

The veteran "star" players moncada, eloy, abreu and grandal simply need to hit better. Tim, robert and vaughn have been quite good but the bottom of the lineup is quite bad and 3 guys hitting well is not enough. I think they can turn it around though. Moncada and eloy have been injured and should get better and abreu usually only picks it up in June or so. Age is a slight concern with abreu and grandal but I think they will be fine even if they are maybe slightly worse than the last years. Grandal and abreu actually have been quite unlucky by statcast xWOBA (albeit you have to consider that the dead ball might make xWOBA slightly more unreliable this year). Abreu 286 wOBA, 368 xwoba Grandal 251 woba, 321 xwoba

To me it sounds like he was indeed fired for performance reasons and now tries to play the "gay card". I'm not saying there is no Homophobia in sports but why would the sox fire him two years after learning he is gay? if the drug/gambling accusation was made and is not true that would be very bad of course but that someone is fired for performance and then tries to get some money by claiming it was sexual orientation, age, gender, disability or race is not unusual, those lawyers who are working in that field are looking out for stuff like that. For the sox that is very bad of course, even if they win the lawsuit some people will still make "sox are homophobic" out of that.

I think right now they need dallas to take the loss every 5th day because of all the injuries, the alternative would be burning the pen as the sox don't have any SP depth. But when lynn comes back they might want to cut him.

I agree, pretty big risk he is just a pen arm, that's the risk with HS pitcher. Still love the pick of him in the second round I rather have a guy there who could flame out but has a chance to be Madison bumgarner or zack greinke than drafting a high floor college guy who likely makes the majors but probably is just a decent utility man or 4th outfielder

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/white-sox-prospect-jared-kelly-discusses-his-early-career-development/

I meant somewhat healthy of course. Every team will have some DL trips but if you miss several guys for a month plus or even half a season it is going to get tough. If the sox top5-6 hitters play 130+ games each and the top3 starters make 26+ starts the sox should be in good shape.

The team mostly needs health. Except for DH this team has a great starting lineup but not much depth in both hitting and starting pitching. So with giolito, lynn, moncada, eloy and robert out it not really a great team. There are other concerns like the occasional TLR managerial gaffes and age and slow start of abreu but if this team is healthy they should be fine and win the division again pretty easily. They just need to be healthy because there is no depth in the upper minors and also because their 5th, 6th and 7th starters are really bad and if they turn into 3, 4 and 5 it doesn't look good.

There definitely is a trend towards trying to assemble lower K lineups. Yes, that approach has failed in the past and teams trying that have been outslugged but when you assemble a low K team that is still above average in power you get a great offense. You don't want slap hitters with no pop in the modern game but the ideal thing is having low k hitters who can slug the ball but those are of course not easy to find and if you buy them very expensive

I don't agree. Yes there are some high strikeout, high walk types like peak adam Dunn but generally about 2/3rd to 3/4 of on base events are hits and the more balls you put in play the higher the chance you get a hit. Yes, typically the best obp guys are not super low k slap guys who hit 4 homers a year like madrigal because fear of pitchers plays a role too and pitchers will rather throw 3 pitches middle middle than walking a slap hitter but still most of the best obp guys tend to be good average/below average K guys. 2021 obp leaders/k rate Juan soto 14.2 Harper 22.4 Vlad 15.8 Freeman 15.4 Reynolds 18.4 Only 6 out of the top30 obp guys had an above average (23.2%) k rate There are a few exeptions to that who have mediocre average and super high walks but that is rare. It is true that you don't want super low k slap guys with minimal power but generally a good k/bb rate is still a good thing. I think the sox offense will be good, they also some bad batted ball luck plus the cold weather.

Maybe the umpire feels bad about the randy pitch and kinda made up for it. Shouldn't be that way but maybe he was a bit hesitant to call another close one against the rays

Eno said with oblique strains you can usually double what they say, i. E when a player has an oblique strain an it is usually more like 4 weeks rather than 2

Vaughn and sheets really shouldn't be on the same roster. They are essentially the same player type (1b,DH who can play an OF corner in a pinch), just one is left handed and the other one right handed.

Don't rush giolito back. The other teams in the division are improved but still only projected for around 500, sox can afford to rest him a little longer and make sure it is fully healed. Eno sarris said in a podcast that he likely will miss 4-5 starts and that is fine as long he is healthy in the summer

That would be a bad deal for the As. I think the As would either want an established young mlb player (like vaughn) or a top50 prospect which the sox do not have. I think there is no chance for a deal, this is a sellers market with the expanded playoffs and if the sox don't want to give up one of their young mlb players they are not getting montas. Sheets and burger don't really have much value as backup corner guys. I'm fine with the sox rotation staying like it is. They have no depth but their top4-5 is good, they just need to hope for health here.

In the modern game it's position players. Run prevention and run scoring is about equally as important but SPs only pitch like 60% of the innings in today's game, plus pitching is only like 80% of run prevention with the rest being defense which is done by position players. But of course without a strong rotation it still is very hard to win especially since a BP can only take so much and even a good pen will blow up if 2 or more starters regularly have to get lifted before the 5th.

He is a good framer because his workouts have made his wrists really strong:)

I like it. Mcguire can't hit but collins didn't hit either and he also wasn't a real catcher, all he was was a high strikeout platoon DH who could take a walk. Sox really only need a backup who can hit over .220 and play decent defense.

Mariners simply got lucky, their pythagorean record had them at 76 wins. There really is nothing to learn from that, you could of course find things they did well but that is nothing really predictive for the future. Mariners might be good this year though if some of their prospects do well.

Win projections are always a bit conservative and have smaller spreads than real life results. I think a big reason is that they don't consider deadline moves. The worse teams are giving up at the deadline and trade away good players for prospects. And good teams are getting rid of prospects and get good players. That means that in the second half good teams will be better than at the start of the season and the bottom teams will be worse. So a projected 90 win team then will probably win 93 and the projected 70 win team will tank and only win 66.

I'm not sure the injury can be blamed on playing the OF, everyone can get hurt but when it comes to multi position ability it is generally easier to adjust to a position to your left in the defensive spectrum. The defensive spectrum is considered DH-1b-LF-RF-3B-CF-2b-ss-c and generally switching to the left of the spectrum is much easier. There are exceptions of course and it is not linear but generally a SS can play all IF spots, a CF can play all OF spots and a first baseman can only play first and DH albeit there are exceptions to this too (bellinger for example).

Fangraphs https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings Sox 87 75 Twins 81 81 Indians 77 85 Tigers/royals 75/87 5th in AL Pecota https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/ Sox 91.5 Twins 85.6 Cle 77.6 Kc 69.4 Det 67.4 2nd in AL Both have sox 6 games ahead but pecota has them at more wins

It was Vaughn's first year and he lost 2020 so essentially he went from high A to MLB. Sure there was the alt site but it is not the same when you face the same pitchers over and over again. You don't make a top30 prospect a platoon in his second year unless you are the dodgers who platoon everybody. Let him figure out RHP in the majors, maybe sit him once a week against a very good righty. Depends on his situation of course but at keast the first two months play him 5 times a week at least.

Also I think the last 3 years with covid and the lockout was mentally extremely draining for many players