wrathofhahn

During a season’s end press conference, White Sox GM Rick Hahn admitted that the team is unlikely to win any time soon. “Even under the most optimistic projections of our ability to contend, certainly ’18 and ’19 don’t include the bulk of the time when we anticipate having a window open to us,” Hahn told reporters. Rome wasn't rebuilt in one season. It's also hugely impacted by things beyond our control. What teams offer for Abreu and Garcia. Whether or not an elite FA is interested in coming next year. I think if everything goes right some team offers a huge package for Abreu. Some team offers a good package for Garcia and part of the package includes top end pitching talent hard to get. You maybe have a shot in 2019 when the rest of kids are ready. But realistically it's probably 2020.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 6, 2018 -> 03:02 AM) Even Duffy doesn’t have ace value because of his injury history...they actually need to decide if they want to deal Sal Perez while he’s still close to peak. Then cut budget down like what the White Sox are doing and hope Strahm, Gordon, Soler, Cuthbert, Herrera, etc., recover some of their value. Too many blown high draft picks like Starling and Zimmer. It's hard to see Gordon ever having positive value. Or Kennedy. Their recent performances have been awful and their deals backloaded. I don't think Duffy has Ace value either but he could probably get you a top 50 prospect. They really have nothing on their MLB roster after this wave of FA leaves and MLB pipeline has them having zero ranked top 100 prospects. Their top prospect plays 1B and hit .247 last year. Their third prospect is Dozier a 26 year old 3B who hit .226 in the PCL. http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=kc I mean all they can do is what they have been doing raiding the international FA market and hoping to lucky on a Dominican but sheesh if their owner cuts payroll I don't blame him. There is no way they are competitive next year and not for the forseeable future either.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 5, 2018 -> 08:34 PM) Soria is living in the minds of some Sox fans as the original, prime of his career version. Same reason Yost kept going to him in high leverage despite all evidence to the contrary. Jack (Soria’s nickname) is simply a calculated risk. He’s been bedeviled by injuries the last five years. A velocity gain isn’t that meaningful because he’s losing movement and his FBs are flattening out more. There’s a decent chance he goes down to injury, about the same as the odds of flipping him for a Top 100-200 player if he reasserts himself as a dominant closer again. To me, the need for Avilan was the bigger element of the deal. KC is officially crazy. Last year proved they can’t win without a solid pen. No surprise. Herrera sucked and Strahm got hurt. Different situation when they could go Herrera, Wade Davis, then Holland. Overspending on Hosmer won’t do a thing besides get KC a #8 pick instead of #4 overall. Alex Gordon is toast. Sal Perez gets beat up more and more each year. Their bullpen is in shambles. Ventura died. Ian Kennedy hasn’t worked out. Sure, Mondesi, Bonifacio, Cuthbert, Soler, Merrifield, etc., could shock the world. Anything’s possible, why not? But the odds are higher of Kopech, Jimenez and Hansen leading the Sox to 85 wins this year...when almost everyone has them in the mid to high 60’s for victories. I don't think KC is crazy at all they would be crazy if they signed Hosmer but they don't have to have a huge payroll to rebuild. I think the problem is they are not getting prospects back. They have no farm. That is going prolong the rebuild if they can't get something for the future with the few assets they have. I mean the more I think about it the shopping of Hererra the shopping of Duffy. I mean I don't think KC front office are geniuses by any stretch but it's hard to see them committing to Hosmer for 150 million considering the makeup of the team. Makes no sense. Story is probably a boras plant. I think another part of the problem KC has is most of the guys are coming off down years. Duffy is really the only guy who could get them a significant package back. Hererra is coming off a down year makes like 9 million after arb and is a FA after this year. They are stuck with Gordon, Hammel, and Kennedy. They are still estimated to have around 120 million payroll after the move and looking to cut. If I'm the whitesox I follow up with Hererra. I mean he's a good bounceback candidate and won't cost a whole lot via trade because his salary and lack of term. Probably about the same as Soria some C- fringy prospect. As far as the Sox go I mean it sort of depends on how Hahn wants to play it. As of now I wouldn't be surprised to see Eloy remain in the minors he's ready but keeping him there to June gives an extra year of control it also gives the FO leverage in trade deals for OF already on the roster. Same goes for Kopach and the rest of them. In the meantime the team is going to bad and build up some losses. I think 70 wins would be optimistic. I mean remember you are also subtracting the talent they traded away. Q, Milk Man, Kahne, Jennings and Roberson from that group.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jan 5, 2018 -> 04:50 PM) No kidding. Leverage what they have and that's payroll space and a "free" season to evaluate and pump and dump or just dump. Hahn has been on fire with these type of moves. Most of the Royals fan reaction seems to be "we sold way too low here" and if we are that desperate to clear payroll we're in trouble. I mean I sort of understand the owners sentiment. He has been rolling with a 160 ish payroll as a small market club. Why continue to maintain those numbers in a rebuild. The more I think about the less likely it's to clear money for Hosmer. This is probably a directive from Moore to cut payroll. Don't be surprised if Duffy and Herrara are moved as well. The problem is pretty much all their top talent are FA and those that remain are coming off down years with the exception of Duffy. Hard to see them getting much for Herrara. Kennedy and Gordon are untradable. Hammel was awful.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 5, 2018 -> 04:41 PM) We essentially given a free solid LH reliever to take Soria. We had to give up a guy that we would have let anyone in MLB have for $100k a month ago. If we got another deal like that, you are danged right the White Sox should look at it. Hell they should be asking how much prospect stock the Dodgers would be willing to spend to take Kemp off of their hands. Hell they should be looking around MLB for situations of the same ilk in other teams. Agreed. I would much rather make these type of moves then go after guys in FA in the shortterm at least. This should have been the focus all offseason instead of Machado and Yelich. You can probably complete the rebuild by the end of next year if he makes some excellent trades at the deadline and drafts well.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 5, 2018 -> 04:08 PM) Given that Salazar is at his low point and Avi is at his high point I'd probably look for 1 more piece coming back, like whoever the Indians drafted in the 3rd round last year or something like that, but on paper that's a reasonable match. Gets us several years of control out of it. I mean that seems like wishful thinking but if thats the case sure have at it.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 5, 2018 -> 02:49 PM) Examples? If Soria was thought of as highly around MLB as he is on this board, not only would the Royals have been able to trade him and not eat money, they wouldn't have had to include a valuable piece with him. They had to do both. If you are looking for specific examples with exactly same set of circumstances you won't find them from me. I mean I'm sure they are out there but I'm not a walking encyclopedia of trades and non tenders. If we are going for guys with roughly the same set of circumstances well one guy who stands out for me recently is Drew Storen. But also a big reason he was moved more then anything is the Royals are rebuilding. They don't want to pay guys 9 million to setup on a rebuilding team. My guess also is their owner didn't want to carry a large payroll either. Rumor is they are also looking to dump Herrara as well. Does it make sense to do so coming off a down year? Probably not. But he's scheduled to make close to 9 million in arb so he must go. Honestly, I wouldn't mind circling back to Herrara as well if the KCR will just give him away.

He's a good buy low guy. I think the problem is the Indians are close they are looking for immediate impact guys. I'm not sure you can swing a deal. Maybe you offer Garcia but is that enough? They need bullpen help more then anything. Don't see a matchup

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 5, 2018 -> 01:02 PM) Teams don't give away useful valuable pieces to dump a contract that is reasonable with a guy whose peripherals suggest will be halfway valuable. If Greg is pissed at the trade, I disagree with him. If he just thinks Soria sucks, he has a point. Anything you get from him is gravy, but chances are it won't be much. Happens all the time teams are looking to cut salary of players inorder to direct resources to other needs or in the KC Royals case appear to sign a FA and get the numbers in budget. In any case I don't think with the cash considerations anyone thinks he is overpaid so why worry? It's a lottery ticket I feel some people are carrying on the conversation just for the sake of it. Noone is saying his peripherals are some guarantee he bounces back next year either all we are saying is it makes it worth the risk. Besides he wasn't even bad last year.

QUOTE (FloydBannister1983 @ Jan 5, 2018 -> 08:58 AM) Why would these be mutually exclusive? Jimenez didn't even play in the majors last year so why couldn't they have made that trade and get the top pick? Because the deal wasn't available at the beginning of the season. My point is if we have to hold on to Abreu or Garcia (less enthused) to get a better offer at the deadline and somehow drop from 1st to 4th like last year. Or even something like 8th I'm fine with it. Maximizing what you get back via trade is more important then a couple of spots in the draft.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 5, 2018 -> 11:26 AM) How do you figure ANY of that? His peripherals in 2016 suggest he had bad homerun luck, but everything else was fine. There might be something else going on that's important, but if so, it certainly can't be gleaned from his peripherals. What are you referring to? And if he puts together a strong first half, given his affordable salary and team option, he'll absolutely bring back a significant return. Agreed especially if he proves he can still close. There are always teams in need of bullpen help at the deadline. Plus at that point he'll be even more attractive from a salary point bc 2/3 of his contract will have been paid by the sox.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 5, 2018 -> 01:05 AM) Let's put it this way. He had three clean 8th inning leads in July and August (3-2, 8-7 and 4-3) and blew all of those key games. The most egregious example, though, was August 15th vs. the A's. Entered the 8th with a clean 8-4 lead (not even a save situation), managed to give up 4 runs and only recorded one out. That was the killer game in their season (think Thome vs. Matt Thornton). Lost 10-8. From July 8th through August 15th (15 outings), he had: 1 Loss (started the 9th clean with a 1-1 tie against BALT) 3 Blown Saves 1 Blown 4 run lead 5 Holds I'm not saying the results were good what I'm saying he pitched better then them. I'd also take issue with using a month sample size for a reliever. Hell a whole season worth of data for relievers is in most cases very small and easy to swing the results one way or another with one bad outing. In any case he's basically signed for 1 year 6 million with the money the other teams kicked in with a 10 million dollar option. Why sweat it? It's basically Holland money. Maybe he turns into something maybe nothing. Why worry about it? 6 million on a pillow contract isn't going to prevent the sox from doing anything.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 5, 2018 -> 12:29 AM) Somehow I knew you'd reference a middle reliever's blown saves. Did you know that Mike Trout had 0 saves last year? The Angels should cut him! That statistic is just as relevant to Trout as blown saves are to a non-closer. Blown saves and ERA are probably the two worst way to judge relievers. His peripherals were good last year. His velocity was good. He had one of the lowest zone swing of his career. He was just in large part unlucky.

Honestly 1st overall pick is sort of luxury when it comes to the rebuilding process. It's much more important to get good returns on Abreu and Garcia. Also if Soria bounces back he could net a top 100 prospect. Take a look at the trades already made. Would you rather take a lesser package for Q and draft 1st or have Eloy and draft 4th?

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jan 4, 2018 -> 10:39 PM) He's so bad a city is rejoicing he's gone. I'll stop now but you guys have to calm down about Soria. He's really bad. Ask Caulfield. He has the numbers. If Coop can save him then yes you could 'maybe' flip him. But if Coop can't, I'm surprised you guys who don't seem to want to spend Jerry's money are OK with 9 million going to this guy per season. Here's how bad he is: "Over the last two seasons, Soria had 14 blown saves and a 3.89 ERA. He became a lightning rod for the frustrations of Royals fans, who had become accustomed to unprecedented success from a bullpen combination of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland." He's only costing 6 million total with an option for next year at 10 million. Thats nothing. It's less then what would cost to take a flyer on him in FA. If he sucks the option never enters the equation

Makes no sense why would the Tigers trade him and why would we be interested considering he only has two years of control left?

Pretty solid deal. If Soria turns into something he can be moved at the deadline. If not he will just be bought out at the end of the year. Avilian has a ton of control and makes nothing. He had a sub 3 ERA last year and 2.96 FIP. If he follows that up he could be interesting trade target as well. We bought ourselves a lotto ticket. It may turn into something or nothing but at the end of the day all it cost us was a cpl of bucks.

It only makes sense if you can pull off a lopsided deal. Those extra years wont be worth much

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 4, 2018 -> 03:17 PM) How pissed will Soxtalk be if Machado, Harper, and Donaldson all sign with teams not named the White Sox and the White Sox need some offense? Homers are what wins now. This guy could be a 40 HR guy at GRF. I understand it may be a year too soon, but like trades, a year too soon is usually better than a year too late. If the price is right, I don't see how it's a bad idea, unless they are on 2020 as the target year. Then I could see, no way. Eventually, the White Sox are going to have to add something other than prospects. Wellington Castillo is hardly aligned perfectly for the rebuild. Moustakas would be aligned a bit better than him, and he's an asset that doesn't cost you your better prospects, just basically JR's money. Theo went after FA pitching early. Edwin Jackson didn't work out. He wanted a couple of others he was lucky he didn't get. Prices aren't going to come down next year or the year after. If the deal is right, you make it. You say if the deal is right do you really think you can get Boras will sign a below market deal? So if you believe the Sox aren't ready to compete why not wait? Plus players with Moose body type don't age well nor does his OBP ISO heavy profile.

His agent is Scott Boras no thanks. He'll either wait out the market and get a longterm deal or sign a 1yr pillow contract. Pass

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 29, 2017 -> 04:46 PM) What happens if you raise the minimum rookie scale from $500K to $1 mill? Seems like that's the biggest exploit from the owner's perspective. It wouldn't put an end to extreme spending for high end talent, but the value of WAR seemingly goes up (and thus, teams and analysts justify costs) because a team like the Yankees just paid $500K for 8 WAR for Aaron Judge, or $62,500K/WAR. If rookies begin taking on a larger share, it seems to me, at least, that the costs would be spread out a bit more and we might not be discussing $25 million for a player in Darvish who has had Tommy John surgery and is coming off a 3.5 WAR season. Actually the biggest exploit that exists today isn't the star players. Judge will get paid eventually. Machado will get paid. The top talent always gets paid. The biggest exploit in the system is the middle end talent. For example the 2-3 WAR guys. With there being teams on the rebuild every year it's going to hard for these guys to make the money they used to because teams are starting to figure out they can fill holes via trade much cheaper.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 23, 2017 -> 02:28 AM) He's under control for 5 years. If he doesn't fit the timeline, the Sox are f***ed. It's all about cost opportunity if the Sox are two years away then yes he doesn't fit the timeline unless his price is already depreciated as he will lose value as the amount of control lessens. To put it in rough terms it's basically the difference between making a trade for Ozuna and making one for Eaton

QUOTE (hi8is @ Dec 22, 2017 -> 03:36 PM) Really? I've read the opposite. They want to dump salary. Why would they hold onto to Castro? Yelich gets expensive (relatively) quickly after this year. If they combine Castro with Yelich they can dump 18 million this year. Castro has 24 million left. He was actually useful last year I have no idea what his actual value is he may have moderate not negative value in a trade. I dunno. People are just assuming adding him to the trade makes him worth less he was a 2 WAR player last year and played well offensively. He maybe a couple million over paid but it's not hard to see him getting something similar in FA Yelich is also unhappy and wants to be traded. It's going to all come ahead quickly thats not to say the Sox makes a ton of sense I really don't think it does and I would rather they continue to rebuild then go for it but sometimes when the opportunity presents itself you jump on it. Marlins are having a firesale.

Normally I'd say no. He doesn't fit with the timeline but with the Marlins low, low prices everything must go sale it would be a shame to not get in on it. So yeah if the trend continues and they are willing to deal him for non top prospects why the heck not. He could always be flipped later.

QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Dec 21, 2017 -> 11:04 PM) The returns are a night and day difference though. This board would have erupted and called for Hahn's head if the Sox got returns like that for Sale, Eaton, and Q. But like you said, the contracts have really left the Marlins is a tough position. I think the difference is Hahn was prepared in all cases to hold onto the player. The Marlins needed to trade contracts and the whole league knew it. They weren't baseball trades. I think if they were and the returns were different then the response would be much different. Nowadays with Baseball America, Law, and Sickels hell even Mayo and MLB.com has got into the action with ranking you just can't hide bad deals. People can read scouting reports and bad trades get killed quickly and this was a bad deal. Yankees didn't even touch their top prospects.