wrathofhahn

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jan 26, 2018 -> 11:04 PM) Broxton is a K machine. .323 BABIP with a .220 AVG thats pretty hard to do

QUOTE (knightni @ Jan 26, 2018 -> 10:09 PM) I'd be interested in Broxton for Fulmer, but Fulmer may not be enough. I mean if he comes cheap enough sure but he was a 0.7 WAR player last year. He's 27 and his pedigree has been much greater then the results. We also have CF already who deserve play. Tilson looked good prior to getting injured. Garcia has been playing well. I think he makes sense to a team who has no internal options like say the SFG but for me I'd rather see what we already have with the guys on the roster.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Jan 26, 2018 -> 10:17 AM) The teams that signed Pujols Fielder Ellsbury etc may be tired of setting their money on fire. But I would ask you how many of those franchises are having financial problems because of it. They may not have gotten player production vs dollars spent but did the signing of those players generate income? Did they sell more tickets?? Did they sell more merchandise? Did their advertising revenue increase. These owners are not dummies. They are making money by the truckloads. When their bottom line gets affected they will watch what they spend on salaries. But if spending X ( even if they don't get their true value) nets them X+ they will continue to spend millions on salaries to make more millions in revenue. The answer is no those teams have not gotten a good return on their investment and since we have one of these players on the roster ourselves lets just keep things honest. Does Shields sell more merchandise? Does he draw fans? Does he increase advertising revenue? I mean what you are saying is nuts. The other problem is most of these players switch teams so the fan attachment is not there after they struggle Pujols is he beloved by Angels fans? No. Was Fielder beloved by Tigers fans? Ellsbury with Yankee fans? QUOTE (GermanSock @ Jan 26, 2018 -> 09:10 AM) Except is isn't really both ways, yes a few players get massive guaranteed contracts but the compensation is that ALL players are very cheap during their first 6-7 years which is their prime years. Sure it sucks you have to pay 30m to washed up pujols but both ways would mean giving pujols at 35 30 millions and trout or Bryant at age 24 50 millions per year instead of 500k. The overpaying of (a few) veterans was the price owners paid for getting young talent to work for almost free. It worked excellent for the owners, sure there are the pujols deals but overall the players share of mlb revenue dropped a lot in the last 10 years (salaries went up but less so then mlb revenue). Why would opposing GM's care how much surplus value a player produced for an opposing club? Their job is to produce wins for their club not right some sort of inequality between a player and their old club. Should we sign Jose Bautista to a six year 200 million deal because the Blue Jays were able to extract so much surplus value through his prime years? I mean comeon. QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 26, 2018 -> 04:44 PM) I think that's a softer way of saying what I said. Boras has worked so hard to make free agents get paid MORE than they're worth, that he's essentially priced his clients out of teams' plans. He has made his own product so overpriced that the entire market has shifted to bypass him. It's complicated but that is a large part of the issue. I also think what doesn't get discussed enough as well is the impact of IFA. If you are a rebuilding club would you rather sign someone like Robert or Cain? Lets say your window of contention is three years in the future. Well that makes Cain what 35. Robert was 19 and would be 22-23 and just ready to be called up. Which makes more sense? The other issue that Boras has is once teams decide to forgo traditional FA and instead devote resources to scouting and the draft along with IFA then they also look to at that point sell off their own assets for prospect capital because that allows them to burn through cheap veterans and keep control of their prospects until they are ready to compete. For example for the Q trade. Q had 4 years of control when he was moved but three of those years of control are not valuable to a team that is rebuilding. Eloy on the other hand has six years but you can keep him in the minors for one year or two years and call him up when you feel the team is closer to contention. For us Hahn has hinted at it being 2020 so lets say we call Eloy up in june to keep his clock set back a year. That means when Hahn feels we will be contenders Eloy will have FIVE years of control Q would have ONE year then be a FA. I know it's a little convoluted but the idea is to have as many players become good at the same time to keep your window open as long as possible. Which makes perfect sense. The problem for Boras is these players eventhough under contract are essentially competing with top FA. If you are the Astros why sign Arrietta when you can just trade for Cole on a 1yr deal. I mean if you are going to extend anyone you would probably prefer it to be your own core players over a player whose 30+ with a declining fastball. If you are the Cardinals and you need a corner OF would you rather trade for 27 year old Ozuna with two years of control remaining (4.8 WAR)? Or sign a 30 year old JD Martinez to a six year 200 million dollar deal or if you are lucky maybe he'll settle for 5 years 150 million (3.8 WAR)? So yeah if you managed to get through this wall of text basically what I'm saying it's a combination of things that is causing this but the main reason is teams are just being smarter and rebuilding teams are realizing that while rebuilding their young players who won't be around when they are good have surplus value to teams that are looking to contend, it makes more sense to spend their budget on IFA, and contending teams realize inorder to keep their window open for as long as possible they need to extend the best YOUNG players on their roster and not be tied down to bad longterm deals for 30+ plus veterans. So they are using trades for shortterm upgrades rather then FA.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jan 26, 2018 -> 02:11 PM) Am I mistaken or is the Cain signing a pretty fair deal for the Brewers? I presume there is risk on the back-side (given age, etc) but early on, given his recent production (when he's healthy) he's been a 5 WAR+ guy which at $16M per year feels reasonable. It's not terrible on it's face the problem is the Brewers already had a set outfield and most of Cain value won't be realized if he doesn't play CF. If I was a brewer fan I'd feel alot better with using the money on a SP. Or if I did sign Cain using the prospects I moved to get a starting pitcher. I doubt they'll get much for their spare OF parts unless they move santana which brings you back to the question why sign in the first place and instead use that money towards Yu or some other FA pitcher.

The Yelich trade makes sense if they wanted to use the savings of not signing Cain for a SP. Signing Cain makes sense if they wanted to save their prospect capital for a SP trade. The both together make zero sense at all. Brewers spinning their wheels.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 25, 2018 -> 09:01 PM) It's not just him complaining about right now. Him putting this complaint out there is him speaking both on behalf of and to his clients and to his future clients. He's playing "public lobbying" right now. This is indirect pressure on the MLBPA, and that pressure eventually will turn up in the CBA talks. And right now, conveniently enough, MLBPA is negotiating with MLB on a way that both sides could agree to a pitch clock; MLB can do it on their own but if they want the players to agree to it they need to give something up to the players that is of value to them. Doesn't matter teams are just so much smarter now then they were then. If you are rebuilding it makes no sense to clog up your team salary with a bunch of overpaid veterans who won't help you win and won't be able to produce once you get good. Nothing Boras can do about it. One great player doesn't have the same level of impact as basketball or football. Basketball only has five players on the court. Football is run by qb's. In baseball the best pitcher in the league only starts once every five game and in that one game may pitch 60% of the innings. Your best hitter is one of 9 players playing and also has to play defense. Time and time again we've seen agents convince bad teams to go for it and resign for example Stanton. Or sign Mike Hampton.

Like I said in the other thread players contracts are bloated. His players would sign in a NY minute just not based on the bad deals of the past. You can go through these 7-10 year deals they almost never work out. Pujols. Fielder. Ellsbury. Crawford. Owners are tired of setting their money on fire and I don't blame them. Until you can build a competitive team via FA why should rebuilding teams bloat their caps with a bunch of unmovable deals?

Yeah, I just checked Braun contract and he has a no trade. He is someone who could actually play LF this year before transitioning to DH but it's hard to see him accepting that role moving from a contending team to a rebuilding club.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 22, 2018 -> 01:39 PM) Right -- if you're worried about where Ellsbury would play if the White Sox acquired him, you're thinking about it wrong. If we get him, it's because of what comes with him. Which is sort of my point the more I think about it and the players already on the roster the more I've sort of realized there would be no spot for him here either to play everyday. He doesn't hit well enough to DH and realistically all his value is being able to play CF for maybe a season more. That would need to be factored in any trade. I also think with the way the market has developed many of our predictions or mine to be specific at the beginning at the thread are wrong. He probably gets a ML deal but less then 10 million and probably for only one year. So the amount of sunk cost we'd be eating in a trade is much higher. I think I used 9 million as a baseline and a three year deal before. Hard to see him getting that now in this market and if we have to eat his full deal thats 68.6 million. Which changes the formula of what you should expect back. To give that number some perspective fangraphs using it's own formula valued Frazier at 38 million and the 34th prospect overall. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the...-100-prospects/

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 22, 2018 -> 11:50 AM) He is still putting up productive numbers. 1.6 fWAR last season, 2.0 the year before. He isn't putting up superstar numbers anymore, but he isn't worthless either. Due to his positional adjustment. The last three years he's put up OPS+ of 83, 88, and 97. He's a below average bat already in his decline phase. Where do you move him when he can't play CF? He's 34 and has 3 years left on his deal. With that being said I wouldn't oppose trading for him but it would be with the understanding we wouldn't get much of anything out of him and it would have to be for a bunch of prospects. Not one. It would be Frazier ++. Honestly if we did trade for him I wouldn't be opposed to giving him his release. It would allow us to not have to try and convince him to waive his NTC and we wouldn't have him clogging one of the OF spots.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 22, 2018 -> 11:11 AM) If he were a free agent today, he'd still get a major league contract for sure. It wouldn't be a $20 million contract, but Ellsbury still brings positive value. He was around 2 war each of the last two years. There are a number of teams he would start for. Ellsbury projects to have a 0.3 WAR this season. He's already 34 how much longer do you think he can play a competent CF? Because almost all his value is in his positional adjustment.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 22, 2018 -> 10:46 AM) He also just said that Braun is not in the trade. Definitely points to a potential Ellsbury deal, obviously doesn’t mean we’re involved. Still can’t believe the Brewers would take on that kind of salary. Would think a team like us or the Phillies would have to be the ultimate landing place for Ellsbury. I guess I'll say I don't believe it. Unless the Yankees are eating 90 percent of his salary they are still in on FA right now. Plus it just doesn't make sense Ellsbury is RL at this point. He won't be able to play CF much longer. They can find a cheap CF with control via a trade a heck of alot easier. I'm sure for example Hahn is willing to trade L Garcia for a modest package. Cain makes sense because well he is still way above RL. Ellsbury is JAG at this point.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 21, 2018 -> 09:17 PM) I would love this deal for the Sox. Ellsbury's contract sucks but it's worth it to get Brinson and possibly other prospects as well. And it's possible that the Yankees/Milwaukee could eat some of his contract too. Why would the Brewers do that deal? Not happening. It maybe Braun being dumped on Sox. If they made a trade for example of Braun plus Brinson, Ortiz Burnes, and Lutz for Abreu they could move Thames to LF. Sign Darvish. Trade for Abreu while only increasing their payroll by 10 million or so.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 19, 2018 -> 03:11 PM) We can only offer $300k. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/late...o-martinez.html If Martinez does indeed become eligible to sign before June 15th, he’ll have the open of signing either in the current or the ensuing period. That will help open up his options a bit.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 19, 2018 -> 02:57 PM) Ben Badler‏ @BenBadler 16m16 minutes ago The Yankees and Marlins had private workouts for CF Julio Pablo Martinez. Here's the latest on Martinez: http://bit.ly/2BcFcMp We should get in on the action though the OF situation is pretty crowded one of the top guys will probably bust just going off odds.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 04:59 PM) Those two big market teams have exactly one World Series appearance this decade. We had Kansas City one run away from back to back titles, then Cleveland was that close to winning a title, so it's not like the big market teams are the only ones winning. Houston is a big market, but never near the largest payroll, and they just beat both of those unstoppable large morket forces. And it's not like the other owners don't have any money to spend, they just choose not to. The owner of the Pirates is a billionaire but god forbid he spends some money to win more baseball games. Each owner just got a $50 million check from that Disney Tech sale but I doubt any of that goes to their payroll. The problem isn't an unwillingness to spend it's the recognization that spending does not equal wins. For example Stanton he was supposedly one of if not the best players in baseball. Marlins didn't even make the playoffs. The MLB isn't basketball where you can just sign Lebron and sim to the playoffs. You have to actually have a solid foundation behind Stanton and the problem is you can't do it in a feasible way via FA. Number one starters get paid 30 million. Number 2 get around 20. Number 3 get in the 15 million range. Number 4 10-12. Number 5 get around 5-8 million. Closers the top FA ones get paid around 15-18 million. Setup guys around ten million. Decent middle relievers get around 4-7 million. Thats well over 100 million before getting into position players. Owners are tired of setting money on fire and frankly I don't blame them and yes part of the issue is the smart teams have realized that the path to success is through filling the team with controllable talent then signing the top guys but raising the price on controllable talent is not the solution and will only cause FA prices to drop further as the top teams will have less money to spend. What we are seeing is a market correction. Once you take a look at FA and see a market where you could build a team via free agency then you'll start to see more teams engaged. Boras has done a good job of inflating prices for teams.

They want Acuna ++ when engaging the braves no thanks

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 15, 2018 -> 10:40 PM) If I could get a top 50 prospect I would totally take on that payroll and give up Garcia. I do not believe the Giants would do that. There was an article a day or two ago about how, despite the fact that they want to contend, the Giants don't want to give up the few pieces they have remaining, including their draft pick for Cain or their 1 or 2 remaining top prospects. I can't find it right now due to the Giants making a tiny bit of news today. I don't see the logic from their side at all. Pence was bad last year but he was also unlucky (BABIP) he was also .800 OPS hitter as early as the year before. My guess before giving up assets to dump his contract they'll give him a chance to bounce back first. He's a sunk cost at this point. I guess the only way it sort of makes sense is if they have one other move they really want to make and Pence salary plus the luxury tax prevents them from doing so. But honestly McCutchen who is a much better hitter then Garcia (BABIP aside) didn't get a top 50 prospect. It's sort of hard to envision the sox getting one. The curtain has sort of been lifted on what the market is for OF with the McCutchen and Granderson deals and it aint pretty. Best bet is to probably wait till the deadline. I honestly doubt teams are offering more then a fringy top 100 prospect at this point let alone a top 50 prospect. People need to adjust their expectations its a buyers market right now.

QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Jan 16, 2018 -> 12:33 AM) Really paints a good picture of why Q didn't end up on the Astros. Hahn certainly looks like one of the better GM's in the game when it comes to negotiating deals. Cole, hurt or not, should have netted a better package that this. Cease the 2nd player in the deal is better then any of the prospects they got back as a headliner. Crazy. Pitt got robbed

QUOTE (hi8is @ Jan 15, 2018 -> 02:36 AM) Well that makes much more sense laid out like that - but Sheets is no where near the bigs for sure. Yeah, I should have been clearer I meant more then this year. JD if signed would be clogging up the DH spot for 5 years at the very least. So at that point if Abreu is still here then you have no space for a 1B/DH. Also another thing it prevents is keeping Abreu or Moncada in the lineup if you want to give them a day off fielding. I guess in Abreu case you could play JD there but with Moncada you'd have to sit him. Most 2B play 130-140 games. Sanchez and Davidson give us the flexibility to rotate out Moncada to the DH spot when he needs rest.

QUOTE (fredmanrique @ Jan 15, 2018 -> 07:30 PM) I bet they'd love to move that pence contract. Avi and shedding the pence contract, which has one year left for heliot Ramos. sounds like he's a legit top 50 guy in the next rankings... and a top 50 guy is fairly great for 2 years of Avi I don't see it. They kept Ramos as an untouchable for both the Andrew and Longo trades. Maybe. around the deadline if Avi is still hitting and they start to get desperate.

Obviously it's a buyers market right now. That or Neal is just that bad.

QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Jan 15, 2018 -> 10:23 AM) As I think all us baseball fans who frequent a message board in January know, this has been an extremely slow offseason with almost no activity out there. This is the kind of offseason I hope next year is like when we are step closer to competing, because at this point one can probably pick up some really nice pieces that can contribute. I know it's unlikely the Sox will add for two reasons. A) they want to know what they have and let their own guys like a Tilson or Cordell play it out. See what Yolmer can do again in 2018, Leury, etc. Plus we are full on our 40 man. b) why add payroll to a team that is very likely not to make the playoffs? However below are some names I've compiled that I'd be interested in kicking the tires on for either the reason to flip them. Or, possibly on a 2-3 year deal to where they might be able to help us make a run in 2019 or 2020. Eduardo Nunez - I think you can nab a guy like this on a 2-3 year deal. He can play 3B, spell Anderson, Moncada, play in the OF. Basically all over the place. He also can steal bases and hit for average. You say Leury, I say Eduardo. Davidson is not the 3B of the future. Yolmer is fine and well as a utility guy. I'd pickup Nunez and slot him in at 3B. You can rotate him as necessary to get looks for the guys you want. He's a nice insurance plan if a Machado or other big name doesn't sign with us at 3B. He is also insurance in the OF and at SS in case of a trade or injury. If we do end up signing a Machado he slots in a super UTIL. I see very little downside. Jonathan Lucroy - This really isn't on my list NOW. However, and this is just my opinion, I'd rather have signed him than Castillo. Who knows how that will play out. I just think Lucroy has a better chance of being something special again. Jon Jay - If nothing else he's a good filler. I want to see Tilson and Cordell along with the others too. Jon Jay isn't exciting. If nothing else a small one year deal and flip him for some low end prospect to a contender in June/July. Melky - Poor mans Jon Jay. Not sure he really serves a role anymore. Hes probably stealing AB's from Tilson, Cordell and Nicky. So not a huge advocate here. But in the right role and at the right cost? Who knows. You could probably pick him up for $2-3mm Tillman - Can never have enough fliers at pitcher. I don't care about Shields. He's as much dead weight as was Johnny Danks. Bucholz - in the same light.. why not? Lastly, I would CONSIDER, not advocate for looking into Alex Cobb, Lynn or JD Martinez. I get it's pissing away money this year. But if you can get them at a HIGHLY discounted price? You saw it with the Astros and Cubs among other teams over the past few years.. it doesn't take a whole bunch to go from a young team to a WC contender. In a perfect world Eloy and Kopech come up this year and progress to real contributors ala Judge or Severino (just used those comps cause both were on the same team). If Moncada takes steps forward? You upgraded Catcher. You have Abreu still. Throw in a healthy Rodon and Hansen, etc, etc. Giolito, Lopez... It's not out of the question that we take a big step forward in 2019. So if you can get a JD for 5 years... or if the Lynn and Cobb market is not what it should be? You throw away a bit of money this year.. but you never know. Just for s***s and giggles.. lets say JD.. Going into 2019. DH - JD RF - Eloy CF - Leury/Tilson/Cordell/Engel/FA Signing LF - Avi 1B - Abreu 2B - Moncada SS - Anderson 3B - Nunez C - Castillo UTIL - Leury/Yolmer/Nicky Pitching - Rodon, Kopech, Giolito, Hansen, Lopez. So although you'd piss away a year of JD? Again, not advocating for it, just kind of pointing out that we are an Eloy, Kopech, and Hansen + 1 year from really being a player away from competing seriously. So although this may seem like a dumb time to be involved in FA, with how its progressing, it may actually be a great time. I'll hang up and listen. Starting pitching is the biggest need. Could use at least one maybe two more starters. Brett Anderson. Tillman. Buchholz. Liriano. Those would be the names I'd be paying attention to. My guess is they don't want to burn a year of service time with Hansen or Kopech. Shields maybe completely done. We'll have to see but his stuff has taken a huge step back over the last several years. His FB now sits mainly under 90MPH. Rondon isn't likely to be ready. Miguel is a guy who got through last year mainly on smoke and mirrors. Lopez and Giolito are really the only two guys healthy with non fringy stuff.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 13, 2018 -> 08:50 PM) This is something the White Sox are going to have to figure out at some point - what do you do when frontline talent is 2 years from free agency and not behaving like a star? Hold onto them and hope they become a frontline player and you're 1 year from free agency or take the best deal you can? Heck, that's the same scenario we have right now with Garcia. I think the difference for Garcia is right now we'd be selling high. The Pirates sold low on Cole. If he bounces back and has a solid season which has decent chance of happening considering his stuff and pedigree that package is absolute garbage compared to what they would have gotten at the deadline.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 14, 2018 -> 02:13 AM) Hold onto him only for Cole to get hurt yet again? If the return was good sure why take the risk but if it's terrible as the Pitts got what they really losing the chance to make a bad trade? If he gets injured they can still make a bad deal next year assuming his arm doesn't fall off or he needs TJ. He was under control for two years. You can't GM scared what may happen. We took a risk with Q and it paid off teams ALWAYS need pitching at the deadline.