Look at Ray Ray Run

When will Dylan cease ever be allowed to pitch into a game and give up runs? I hate the quick hook there honestly.

This really comes down to how much value you want to put on 62 games and 54 game base running metrics. Me personally? I don't put much weight on those numbers. From an offensive (non BSR) standpoint Madrigal and Moncada have been very similar production wise. Defensively you could argue Moncada was a little better but he was not a good 2nd baseman either. Moncada had a lower wRC+ of 99 a wOBA of .319 and an OPS of 730. Madrigal has a wRC+ of 110, a wOBA of 327 and an OPS of .732. Maybe you think Madrigal is actually the worst defensive 2nd baseman in the game and one of the worst base runners, but I find that difficult to believe so I'll reserve my analysis in those two areas. Offensively is where I think the comparisons are more aptly mad.

There's not a scout on planet earth who is more accurate than a well put together projection model. The scout may nail a couple players that a projection model wiffs on or misses, which is why scouts still have value, but if you give both the scout and the model the same list of every single player to analyze, the scout will almost never be more accurate in their 3-5-7 year projections. I left a .00000000000001 possibility because I felt like being kind. No one is saying scouts don't still have value, but Harold's insinuation that he trusts his thoughts on every player over statistical models is not based in reality, and unless he's a literal machine, his brain can not process enough information efficiently to achieve that task.

Most people tend to think they're smarter than computers and projection models. Facts will tell you that those people are almost always (99.99999999999%) less accurate over a large enough sample.

Through Yoan Moncada's first 62 big league games he played like a back up as well. Weird.

Reasons one and two are incredibly douchey and irresponsible of the organization. Not saying you're wrong, but if that's actually the thought process that's really messed up.

So my post to you is a personal attack but people posting oompa loompa posts for Madrigal are good natured ribbings? How did I attack you lol? You honestly can't make this up. I can respond to anyone I please, thank you. After all, what's the point of a message board if you can't interact with posters and talk about posts? Isn't that what you say all the time? Thank you for proving my point regarding your sensitivity though.

I gotta say, for a guy who is pretty sensitive and doesn't like when people "rib" him for fun on an internet forum, you sure are OK and understanding with personal jabs at a guys height that clearly aren't "good natured ribbing." It couldn't possibly be because you don't like Madrigal either so it's OK to make weird comments on his stature and post oompa loomp and gnome images, could it?

I can't think of a riskier free agent pitcher that, if he pitches well the rest of this year, will cost as much as Rodon. I would have no interest in giving him big money. The injury history is far too glaring. I have no idea what TLR is doing having him throw 110+ pitches back to back starts in April. Incredibly reckless. He hasn't been able to stay healthy once in his MLB career.

The link leads to a 3 year zips projection for kelenic which is lower than the war projection for madrigal preseason at the same age. So I'm not sure what is simple math. You need help.

This is such nonsense. Again he's an above average offensive player with that 737 ops. 800 would put him nearly 20% better than league average. To say he's a bust if he's not 20% better than league average is just blah.

So in 3 years he's projected to achieve a lower WAR than madrigal was projected for before he debuted at the same age. That's your dunk? Zips projected madrigal to be a 3.3 war player this year in less than 500 at bats. Madrigal projection has changed because he has actual big league at bats. Kelenic does not. Usa today? What? Yes, I'm saying you pounding your chest about how Madrigal sucks and they clearly should have drafted kelenic who hasn't even played a mlb game is laughable. There's zero guarantee kelenic is an actual productive big leaguer however much you want to proclaim otherwise.

With the progression of pitching dominance I would disagree with this. He's 8% than league average with the bat right now with a 708 OPS. A 770 OPS (ignoring other factors into wRC+) is about 15% better than league average this year. If Madrigal could be 10% better than league average with the bat while correcting his base running and defensive woes he would be a valuable player. Especially when you analyze the fact that his contact tool is an 80 so he does a few additional little things on offense that won't really be accounted for in a metric.

Colome got 5 outs in that 10th inning, and those were two of the worst defensive plays you could possibly make. The 9th was one him, but the 10th he didn't have any business even giving up 1 run.

This is just flat out wrong. Jered Kelenic projection as of today, using STEAMER is .3 fWAR, with a slash line of 237/300/403 over 385 AB's. Madrigal projection when he was first called up was that of a 2.5 fWAR player, and even now (after his 45 game sample) he's still projected at 1.6 fWAR ROS with a wOBA of 319 over 491 AB's. Pre-debut, Madrigal projected to be better than Kelenic (obviously at a more developed age). Kelenic is younger and has a higher ceiling, sure, but this proclamation that he's some can't miss superstar on this forum is laughably wrong. He may be a great player, and he's a talented kid, but he is not projected to be a superior player as of today and saying otherwise just isn't true. Again age matters, but Madrigal had a higher wRC+ at AA than Kelenic did. The Sox have not been poor at drafting for two decades either, that's another completely false proclamation. You're full of those though.

Didn't look like there was gonna be much weather in the area. Wonder if they cancelled it because of the temperature after last night. At most I saw .1 inches of snow projected which is nothing.

Similar to defensive metrics, base running metrics really were not meant to be analyzed after 45 games. The opportunities just aren't great enough to actually substantiate the predictability of them. You need more information/data before you can gain confidence in their conclusions.

Yeah, I agree with most of your points. I don't think, as he is today, he would be the 6th best offense in baseball if it was just him. I also don't think he would be the worst offense in baseball though; likely somewhere in the middle/early back of the pack. I do think his base running is a little too small-samply for me to allow it to weigh down his offensive production significantly, so I would normalize that a bit as the sample for base running through 45 career games is too noisy, but I also I think his offense isn't quite this good when normalized a bit either (although, maybe it is). Ironically enough I think Nick might really benefit from the deadened baseball (if the trend continues following further analysis) because he wasn't hitting home runs anyway and the rest of the field moving backwards in productivity due to the ball only enhances his skill set more as it should minimally effect his production. I said it earlier, but really he just needs to change his approach early in counts and stop swinging at pitchers pitches. It causes weaker than weak contact because he never misses, and he should really reserve that for when it's 0-2. Maybe his K-Rate ticks up a smidge, but it still would be at a historically great level so who cares? All in all, I don't think the Chicago Madrigal's would be as good as the 110 wRC+ would project, but I do think it would be near league average even after the regression for the points we discuss above. You make me want to put this in production and see what I produce lol.

It's actually not, and it's not rubbish to use historical outcomes to compare and project future outcomes. That's literally how ever projection model is built. We get that you're the greatest hindsight general manager in the history of the world, but sadly you're not running the White Sox and we're stuck with these fake professionals that don't have your HOF eye for talent.

Tony, I 100% understand the point youre making, and I may also prefer higher upside talent but if Nick Madrigal has a long MLB career - which looks like it may be the case - you just can't say it was a terrible pick or a bust. The reason I brought up his time to the majors is because plenty guys never reach the majors in the top 5, and many who do don't stick around for longer than a year or two. When analyzing the pick it's important to hold the standard to a level that we have seen in the past. Madrigal may never be a superstar player, but being a productive and useful major league player is a hit on the 4th overall pick. Fans can certainly set their bar wherever they wish, but setting it at an irrational level that is sans any historical analysis or probability isn't a fair way to critique and analyze a player IMO.

Jered Kelenic has accomplished literally nothing as a big leaguer but if you read this forum only you'd think he was in the HOF. You had an 11% chance of finding a successful player in picks 1-5 in the 2000's. A successful pick is defined as averaging more than 1.5 WAR per season. Year pick 1-5 pick 6-10 pick 11-15 pick 16-20 pick 21-25 pick 26-30 00-05 2 5 5 3 4 1 06-10 4 3 1 0 2 2 All 6 8 6 3 6 3 Percentage 11% 15% 11% 5% 11% 5%

I mean, you're conveniently leaving out: Bubba Starling Matt Hobgood Kyle Zimmer (who I guess is finally a decent reliever) Mark Rogers Chris Lubanski Clint Everts Justin Wayne BJ Garbe John Patteson Ariel Pietro Josh Booty Jeff Granger Chad Mottola Kenny Henderson Kurt Miller Nick Gordon and Corey Ray haven't lit the world on fire either That means over 50% of the #5 overall picks were also busts. Were some good players drafted, yes. But a 50% bust rate isn't something to revel at while being critical of a guy who has reached the big leagues in two years.

I've got to question this. There is a direct correlation between wRC+ and runs scored/produced. Madrigal's career wRC+ is 110 as of today. That would have been the 8th best team value in 2020 and the 5th best in 2019. If you had a team compiled of 9 players with wRC+ of 110, I don't think statistically it could be the worst offense in baseball regardless of how you get to that value. To put it in perspective, there were teams with wRC+ of 76 and 73 in 2019 and 2020. You might want to recheck your model because that simulator is not projecting run production correctly somewhere.

Got it; I wasn't sure after the first tweet was posted about it but after yours I was certain. Thank you for your service.

Nick Madrigal; now responsible for Yermin Mercedes psyche. Soxtalk.com