Look at Ray Ray Run

Greinke's contract is for 7 years. No one is giving a pitcher a 10 year deal.

Position players are more valuable than pitchers because of raw usage. It's really that simple. Reliability and frequency matter a lot in long term contracts. It's why the longest and biggest contracts will always go to hitters before pitchers. Signing a bunch of pitchers under the premise of expected injury is not a good way to allocate funds to maximize return. You don't sign a guy for any decent wage to be a security blanket for a guy you signed for a bigger wage. Injuries should be reactionary, despite assumed likelihood. Otherwise it's a misallocation of funds.

That's why they are more volatile... That's why I used the word dangerous? Volatility in performance is tied greatly to injury. It's why when deciding between investing heavily in an arm or a bat, you should always chose a bat; which was the exact opposite argument of your initial post.

There are times in baseball in which scoring ONE run is more valuable to the win rate of your team than scoring multiple. In that scenario ONLY should you sacrifice an out. The frequency in which that happens is incredibly rare which is why 99% of sacrifices are bad baseball

Eh, the problem is your giving the pitchers in general the duty of preventing runs while ignoring the fact that pitchers are much more volatile and dangerous commodity... In today's game, adding the position player is probably the answer if both players are equal in value because of the increased pitched volatility.

No they're not.

Ahhh this is where I made my mistake. Its wRC not wRC+. You are correct the adjustment for parks and etc harm it. Similarly to how ops+ is less efficient wRC+ is more efficient than OPS+.

That ISO information is rather surprising.

I think wOBA has a higher correlation coefficient; I will look that up when I get home. I have that somewhere. I thought wRC+ over the 10 year sample was slighter higher than OPS and wOBA was the highest. Also, OBP + ISO has a better has a higher correlation coefficient than OPS I believe but I could be remembering that wrong. OPS is beautiful because it's incredibly easy to calculate - only two inputs - and it's incredibly efficient but I still don't think it should be compared to it's two subsets for obvious reasons. Thanks for the link!

My bad, I typed that wrong.

wRC+ has a better correlation to runs than OPS. Using OPS, OBP, and Slugging in the same study is bad statistical analysis given that OPS is derived from OBP and Slugging.

Well, OPS is just saying how many bases you can expect to get per at-bat. That means... that it is a very strong correlation since 4 bases = a run, so someone who averages more bases every at bat, contributes more runs.

The irony is that players like Mike Trout are the exact reason why there is an immense amount of risk in trading Bryce Bush; why? Because the reason a guy like Trout fell despite being BY FAR the best high school talent by a mile is because of his limited AB's due to being from the north. Limited scouting, and limited reps, frequently cause incredible northern high school talent to fall. It's harder to get a read on a guy with limited reps and only summer/fall ball. The other kids play year round... it's why Sox fans are infatuated with Bush because he fell despite talent because of limited eyes and reps so a sign of instant success against professionals with about twice as many reps at the same age is very exciting.

It's also a worse market next year. This isnt even a conversation. What is happening right now is Lozano is trying to get near or to the number him and machado set as their goal pre offseason. He is in no rush to sign a lesser deal but eventually will have to accept something close enough.

Amazing. I have no idea how anyone could argue it's not close. By the way, acquiring arguably a top 3 defensive 3rd baseman ever is probably a part of the sox thinking beyond a middle of the order bat. Just saying...

He likely refused because the Padres arent serious contenders.

Because of ST? A guy is going to decide the fate of his baseball legacy and future bases on the location of the teams spring facility? My god, someone just make it end. The takes are getting so bad it hurts.

There is more to the game than offense. Harper is better offensively but he doesnt have much - but for one year - in which he can claim to be better than Machado imo.

Weird to refuse. Agent can't be happy.

How?

For starters it would be smart of other teams to drive up the price on these two stars even if they have no intention on signing them. Its smart business to make sure one of your competitors doesnt get a big discount due to a slow and small market of suitors.

What does this mean? The Sox and Phillies have been serious about going after those players. What is nice about the Padres also doing it? I must have missed it...

Yes and then after this was written he gave up 23 runs in 23 innings. Everytime Gio took a step forward he took two back. If he was happy with how he ended the season he wouldn't be retooling again

Dylan Coveys best pitch is actually incredibly good - he throws a 96-95 mph sinker with huge movement. Coveys problem is he can't control it, and his secondaries are horribly inconsistent. But... every single pitch Covey throws moves, a lot. That's why he gets chances. The hope being he finds a way to harness and pinpoint the movement. That 95-96 last year came out of nowhere - when I saw that, plus the movement, I realized why the Sox rule 5ed Covey. He might never figure it out but that stuff is filthy.

Where did I say major leaguers don't make adjustments? A guy just coming fresh to the majors and making a mechanical overhaul is alarming and not common in the least bit. What mechanical overhaul did Verlander make? He made an adjustment to the way he attacked hitters and the zone - his adjustment was driven more by analytics provided to him by the Astros. He didnt make some dramatic mechanical changes and reinvent himself. A late career adjustment is vastly different than a overhaul of your mechanics after one year in the big leagues. Giolito has now overhauled his mechanics 4 off seasons in a row. He did it in Washington by their request in 2016 because his motion was high effort and dangerous according to them. Then in 2017, the white sox acquired giolito and overhauled his mechanics - hoping to fix what the nationals broke. Then, in 2018 giolito changed his mechanics again, back to the "natural" motion from before the nationals changed him. He had a big spring and optimism was high. Then the season started and his velocity didnt hold in the weather, and his release point with the natural motion kept preventing him from getting on top of breaking balls. Then, he started finding some velocity but still couldnt get on top, and he was wild in and out of the zone. Now, in 2019 Lucas Giolito is overhauling his mechanics again. Yes, countless hall of famers do that