South Side Hit Men

You are not going to stop every ground ball by better positioning. It’s about improving your probability over time. Same with splitting 8s against a 10 or an Ace. You still have a negative win probability, but minimize losses. Letting your gut override probability in BJ or Baseball is a long term losing proposition.

It sucked Cesar didn’t perform as expected the final two months (3 HRs, .608 OPS), but still made sense to try to fill a definite need. There weren’t many 2B available, IIRC, and the one many here were clamoring for was a bust (Adam Frazier) and more costly in terms of prospects. Sometimes you gain power just by dropping mistakes, as they did by DFAing Adam Eaton and allowing better internal AAA options to play. If 2020 was a normal season, they hopefully would have done the same with Parrot and Mazara. Not sure if they pursued a corner OF. I assume all funds and trade capital available for deadline upgrades were exhausted with the Kimbrel and Cesar acquisitions. A FO and scouting upgrade to better evaluate external MLB players is required to expect better results for FA and trade acquisitions. The Cubs scored a solid upgrade by snagging Houston’s guy for an Asst. GM spot last month.

Sadly, this likely won’t happen with Tony and Dave Duncan’s son on the team’s payroll.

Rocky, of course, knew nothing about his organization’s first sham “investigation”, either.

I wrote that is the best we could expect from the current team and FO. I stated my peace regarding shedding veterans / adding younger players who can win now and extend the window. They should eat the Kimbrel buyout and concentrate on solid FAs which are available every year, guys which Hahn passes over to lockup old veterans the first weeks of FA for top dollar and hope they stay healthy and don't decline, versus younger healthy options with upside. Your post indicates what is likely to happen, unless JR tells Hahn NO, your payroll is XXX, and Kimbrel doesn't fit or you get nothing else except Kimbrel, everything else must be filled eternally beyond a couple $1M-$3M guys. $162.4M The CBA and COVID make this a difficult year to speculate. My best guess if I had a gun to my head and had to bet would be: A CBA is not finalized this Winter. Either they will play 2022 under an extension of the current deal, or there will be a significant work stoppage. I don't see the Sox signing a Marcus Semien, Michael Conforto, Noah Syndergaard, or other high priced FA without dumping the equivalent in salary. I think the Sox will ultimately keep Caesar (or sign someone with a similar salary) for 2B, sign Leury for $8M/2yrs, Tepera $9M/2 yrs + team option, and muddle through with Sheets/Vaughn/Eloy/Engle/ Leury as their corner OF + DH solution. That leaves a payroll of Hitters $91.4M + Starting Pitchers $46.5M + Relief Pitchers $25.5M = Total $162.4M (Previous OD High was $128.7M, last year 2021) Hitters: Abreu (35 $19.7); Anderson (29 $9.5); Engel (30 $2.0); Hernandez (32 $6.0); Garcia (31 $4.0); Gonzalez (25 $0.6); Grandal (33 $18.3); Jimenez (25 $7.3); Moncada (27 $13.8); Robert (24 $6.0); Sheets (26 $0.6); Vaughn (24 $0.6); Older Defensive Catcher (33 $3.0M). SP: Giolito (27, $8.3), Lynn (35 $19.0) , Keuchel (34 $18.0) Kopech (26, $0.6), Cease (26, $0.6). RP: Hendriks (33, $13.3), Bummer (28, $2.5), Crochet (23, $0.6), Lopez (28, $2.0), Ruiz (27, $0.6), FA Tepera (34, $4.5), Free Agent TBD (30, $2.0) A year over year increase from $128.7M to $162.4M, or $33.7M (26.2%) is very high / significant. Not sure how many are thinking a $200M payroll, a 56% increase in payroll, is realistic. I understand they sold a lot of 2022 season tickets with Jerry's 2021 playoff carrots, but they didn't sell an additional $70M worth, that is for certain. $180M would be a beyond wildest dreams budget, but don't see it as likely unless JR is trying to goose ST performance for he or his heirs to cash out at top dollar. That would allow your Conforto, or my Semien, but not both. I would also add at least 1 good SP ($7M-$10M range), Kopech isn't pitching all year, you want to cap Keuchel, and they will likely have at least one significant injury next year.

Kiermaier is a sunk cost, and the article proposes the Sox would also send cash. Not sure the Sox can count on Engel staying healthy. Still think you can extract solid young cost controlled pitching with Miami sending them Eloy and Mercedes. They have many pitchers but few hitters.

Considering Sox likely budget, FO, manager and current roster, I (and I believe most here would concur) this plan would be the upper limit of what Sox fans could hope for, with the exception that I wouldn’t relegate Vaughn to the bench, and would be creative in terms of what they could get for Eloy or Sheets. https://soxmachine.com/2021/11/01/hulk-smashs-measured-offseason-plan/ Sign and trade Kimbrel for Kiermaier. Offer QO to Rodon (with the expected rejection) Sign FAs Semien, Leury, Tepera and Wilson Ramos.

Your hissy fits illustrate there is only one person getting “worked up”. The vast majority of players, perhaps a few hundred at most professional ball players are actually “millionaires”, playing in a finite window of opportunity. Divide and conquer, the lone ballgame you’ll never, ever see the parasitic billionaires tank.

Instead they are footing the bill for substantially higher tickets, parking, concession and RCN prices, whereas player salaries remain stagnant, below inflation, nearly every penny of it going to the Owners. 2011 White Sox Payroll: $127.7M vs, 2021 $128.7M, a 0.7% increase. 2011 Cubs Payroll: $134.0M vs. 2021 $147.8M, a 10.2% increase. Perhaps you don't get a chance to go to many games in Chicago, but tell me have tickets, parking, beers, food, cable bills increased 0.7% the past decade in Texas? Most major league players earn at or near the minimum salary. Without factoring in survivor bias (only a small number of total professional ballplayers reach the Majors), most last a few years, most don't reach FA and many who do are colluded against by the owners the past few decades. Not to mention having to pay the highest tax brackets for their short careers. Whereas the owners are getting billions from taxpayers in terms of subsidies, have substantial expense write-offs which minimize any taxes, defer capital gain taxes for decades, own teams in perpetuity without any free market interference courtesy of their Congressionally awarded monopoly. The same owners who paid millions to bribe Congress to avoid paying minor league players a minimum wage.

In more normal circumstances, he would have had the benefit of AAA to get acclimated. I agree he will ultimately need to succeed against MLB, but he will need to play most every game to do so. Don't want him to get discouraged if he continues to have issues against RHP. If Tony is going to platoon Andrew, it will further prevent any growth. I'm good with either path (start at AAA or MLB) as long as he's pegged for regular playing time, and is not used in a platoon. Same goes for getting cute with Kopech in 2022, who should focus on starting from Day 1 of ST, though with intentional pace to allow him to pitch the final 3-4 months of the year. He shouldn't return to the bullpen, even for a few months to open the season.

No interest in scab baseball, owner collusion, or their other disgraceful tactics. Fuck Outed Roider Frank Menechino, alias Jerry Legler, and the other scab players. Frank "GIDP" Menechino continues to screw over the next generation of players with his shitty coaching. In terms of FO and management paid by ownership during lockouts, kudos to Sparky Anderson and others who told MLB and their owners to GFT, and kudos to then Federal District Court Judge Sonia Sotomayor who saved baseball from destruction at the hands of the owners led by Bud Selig, and his puppet master, Jerry Reinsdorf.

They have been, even before COVID. Fan interest will continue to shrink with the current ownership and commissioner. https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/09/30/baseball-had-its-worst-attendance-in-16-years/ American Population: 1973 215.2M; 1983 236.0M; 1993 259.5M; 2003 289.8M; 2013 316.4M; 2020 331.0M. World Series TV Audience: 1973: 34.8M; 1983: 29.5M; 1993: 24.7M; 2003 20.1M; 2013 15.0M; 2020 9.8M. (From 16.17% of population to 2.96%, an 81.7% decline). Super Bowl TV Audience: 1973 53.3M; 1983 81.8M; 1993 91.1M; 2003 88.6M; 2013 108.7M; 2020 101.3M (From 24.77 % of population to 30.60%, a 23.6% increase). Chop on, Manfred & Owners.

No, but found it amusing he is both a Sox and Steelers fan (my choice when I followed the NFL in the 70s-90s). Don't have a twitter, facebook, google, etc.. Back to the offseason discussion, I haven't seen much discussion regarding the development plans for Vaughn and Kopech next season, but I wonder if the Sox are considering starting both in AAA (or Kopech perhaps closer by or in Arizona) to start the year. Vaughn is going to be a stud, but he was rushed last season out of necessity, and may benefit from working on hitting / pitch recognition on the outside sliders that are his kryptonite. He handled both the promotion and LF excellent, but in the second half it was clear he needed to work on at bats vs. RHP. In terms of Kopech, he can work on developing his 3 and 4 pitches, and start off his MLB SP career prepared, versus the path taken last year. The Sox have the ability this offseason to have the depth to allow them to do this (and also cover injuries the rest of the season), and give both players the best chance to succeed for the rest of 2022 and beyond. I really think they did a solid job managing Kopech's innings last year, but he needs a chance to develop his pitches and be comfortable before being thrown into the fire. They also need to limit his innings based on his 70 inning base from this season. It will be interesting to watch, but hopefully he can start in June or July with the club, and reach 120-140 including October. Just hoping the FO is making the final call with a long term perspective.

Perhaps he's satisfied with almost getting through four innings, giving up 6 runs in October. Limping through the second half with a sore knee that can't hold up under his enormous weight. Getting ejected from games due to anger with his knee. Hopefully for Sox fans footing $38M, he comes to camp fit and able to pitch into October the next two seasons. Improve on his 12 + White Sox Playoff ERA. It's possible with the right approach and dedication to returning to health which will allow him to pitch effectively in October.

You do realize he was a young child, mimicking ignorant adults around him. Imitating trash, who have little to nothing to cling to in life beyond denigrating other races. That's how these "peculiar institutions" and "traditions" linger, coupled the support of owners and the pathetic commissioner who represents them. In case you didn't hear, Darren is an adult. Plays for the Nationals. Doesn't get off acting the fool. He is not a child. He knows better. What's your excuse?

They should build their own stadium, either in San Jose or Salt Lake City, or should be contracted with 1-3 other teams. The sport doesn’t need yet another perma 90-100 loss team to further erode interest in the sport.

Onions ? ? Hope Dusty reconsiders working around Swanson versus having to face their top three. This is a must win for Atlanta with Fried their next slated starter for Game 6.

Melvin definitely a major upgrade. If he is allowed to do his job without interference, the Padres can bounce back next season. Feel bad for A’s fans, hope the few fans they have left decline their season tickets invoices. They deserve under 1,000 fans per game if they mega-tank.

I understand, and with Tony here, I expect youth to continue be slashed in favor of veterans. In real time, I supported the Lynn trade and Hendriks FA signing due to the $, cost and upside, and still think they were solid deals. If the Sox bump payroll to $180M-$200M, they can afford Lynn and fill their other holes, though I still contend committing to weight reduction will allow him to pitch without stress to his knee. I guess we will have to wait to see how both play out. I’d take just about any return if they could trade Keuchel and Kimbrel, and then commit to spending the $33M saved wisely. Only added Lynn to make it a realistic intriguing offer to the Dodgers, and to net a reasonable return, with upside and cost control.

I don’t believe he is the key to what I am laying out, there are other solid options. Ill take a deeper dive once the QOs are accepted / rejected, including Rodon, to determine the true FA class. FA graphs does a great job with their consensus estimates in terms of dollar and length, juxtaposed against prijected fWAR. Don’t expect much until a CBA is final, perhaps in time to play a meaningful 2022.

I think Lynn and Kimbrel makes it enticing as they are both solid pitchers. Keuchel also is a good insurance plan to eat 100-150 innings, should be effective in the NL/Dodgers Stadium, is the only bad contract there and it's only $19M if they don't let him vest. Beyond egregious penalties in new CBA, I expect the Dodgers to not give a crap about paying any luxury tax. I put a high ceiling on Ray, but it likely will cost much less (say $22-$25M AAV over 3-4 years). Spotrac pegs his value at $18M. I like the fact he excelled in the toughest offensive division. The $146M allows also for an additional QO offer on Rodon, but my initial assumption is he rejects this and tests the market. If they sign him, $163M is still a reasonable payroll with JR, perhaps they then nix Ray and sign another leaving payroll in the $140M range.

Seven deep of credible starting options is the standard if you want to be able to survive the season and have a solid rotation available. It's why I proposed getting younger studs like Pablo Lopez, Tony Gonsolin, perhaps using the savings of trading off the high priced veterans and sign another top starter like Robbie Ray. Coupled with Giolito, Cease, and Kopech, you have a tremendous young pitching core which will extend the window, and the depth to absorb one or two major injuries the Sox were fortunate to avoid this season. Eloy was the one core player I proposed trading, because he doesn't have the desire, nor likely the ability, to contribute consistently at the DH role, and you can get solid value for him now. Coupled with Mercedes, I believe Kim Ng would love to acquire those two players, as she has tons of pitching but little in terms of hitters. Lynn also holds a lot of trade value know, he will likely regress between health and age. The Dodgers are likely one of the few, if any. other teams willing to take on $16M for Kimbrel (and if not, eat the $2M and move on). With Lux and Gallo two solid LH bats, you improve the lineup against RHP, and the pitchers will also benefit with having catchers able to block sliders in the dirt, catching plays at the plate. A new manager would implement modern defensive alignments, and will lay off the CS failed Hit and Runs, the wasted runs playing the infield in early in games, the poor defensive injury prone LFer and finally field a credible RF. It would be difficult to pull off all of the moves, but at the same time it illustrates how keeping, not trading young cost controlled players is the key to creating and lengthening a long term competitive window. The Sox have moved in the opposite direction via their trades and signings the past two seasons, and have severely restricted flexibility while reducing their window. Hitters $79.4M + Pitchers $67.0M = $146.4M SS Anderson (Age July 1, 2022 29; 2022 actual/projected salary $9.5M) 3B Moncada (27 $13.8) # 1B Abreu (35, $19.7) RF Gallo (28 $9.5)^ CF Robert (24 $6.0) DH Sheets (26 $0.6) ^C Contreras (30 $9.0) LF Vaughn (24 $0.6) 2B Lux (24 $0.6)^ Bench: Gomes (34 $3.5), Engel (30 $2.0), Garcia (31 $4.0), Gonzalez (25 $0.6). SP: Giolito (27, $8.3), Ray (30, $30.0), Pablo Lopez (26, $2.5), Kopech (26, $0.6), Cease (26, $0.6), Gonsolin (27, $0.6). RP: Hendriks (33, $13.3), Bummer (28, $2.5), Crochet (23, $0.6M), Reynaldo Lopez (28, $2.0), Ruiz (27, $0.6), Free Agent TBD (30, $3.0), Free Agent TBD (30, $3.0) Trades: Eloy and Mercedes to Miami for Pablo Lopez. Lynn, Keuchel and Kimbrel to Los Angeles N.L. for Gavin Lux and Tony Gonsolin. Grandal to New York A.L. for Gallo. Burger, Collins, prospects to Chicago N.L. for Willson Contreras.

OK 2%.