LDF

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 10:07 PM) So, while waiting for a meeting earlier today, I was screwing around with baseball contracts because why not. I compiled the top 31 contracts signed for people who were free agents last offseason - 31 was chosen because that's how many players signed $10 million total value deals or more. Basically an arbitrary cutoff but it does a good job of including anyone who got "decent' money. I then rapidly scrolled through their fWAR and divided their contracts up evenly into years. For simplicity I ignored the slight increases that happen yearly in some of these contracts and just averaged over the full contract. The cutoff is right after Luke Hochevar. What I was looking for was...given their performance this year, what was the total amount spent per fWAR on the free agent market? I did a bit of a rough scaling to account for the fact that we're 85% of the way thorugh the season and assuming people would keep piling up fWAR at the same rate for the last 15%. Given where we are now, the average price of 1 fWAR amongst well-paid free agents last offseason comes to about $9.4 million. If you factor in the fact that some guys contracts inflate with time, if you wanted to buy 1 fWAR on the free agent market last offseason it cost about $9 million plus an additional commitment the next year. That blew my mind. We talk about teams spending $6 million or so per fWAR on the free agent market, but spending last year was so ineffective that 1 fWAR cost over $9 million on average. I think that really hits home how ineffective it is to spend money on the FA market if you're trying to significantly overhaul a franchise, at least to me. with ref to the advance stats... i appreciate the hard worked you did to compile this info. many thanks.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 10:20 PM) 670 The Score ‏@670TheScore 48m48 minutes ago Report: Grand jury set to reconvene soon in Patrick Kane case http://cbsloc.al/1KHfJ0Y this is interesting news.... i wonder what the feelings on how it is going.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 08:16 PM) It has been proven over and over again that a team cannot pick BPA in each round. It literally will not work. pls read the post you are answering to, what can i answer... i am not advocating BPA in each round. i have said that several time already.... did you not read it????

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 08:15 PM) This is a complete non-answer. What else is there besides money and contract status that you are worried about negotiations over. and is there anything else.... this is the answer.. and as i said, there is no final answer... just opinions and the org needs to have a game plan. again, i will say take the BPA in the first round, may 2nd and then that is the end of my knowledge of that yrs draft.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 07:57 PM) Each pick is not made in isolation. What each pick is slotted for and signing for affects what you can offer to the rest of your picks. Again, take Zangnari. Because we went over slot with him as BPA, we had to take players who were not BPA and would sign underslot in later picks. It was either that or forfeit future draft picks. this is what you are responding to. ldf but even to the last draft, some posters were talking about the bpa idea. here is a question, beyond a certain round, it is all a crap shot.... so at what round should the BPA should be abandon??? so all that is again back to the sox org and FO. i can't stress to strongly, there are not right answer.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 07:54 PM) Tell me what else there is. and that comes full circle. with the little things i am concertinaing on is not the full answer. it has to go with a idea, a strategy that the org FO has to but into. the BPA..... does that really work?? last draft Cameron went in the comp pick area.... was he not the BPA somewhere in the first round??? for me and my point of view... maybe, but the sox needed alot of help and there was a criteria of pirioties that the org knows. you take the BPA per your org needs and in the later rounds, they have to do the best that they can. there is not going to be the right answer or wrong ones and when people are involve, there is always going to be different ideas. they should stick to their game plan.... and to go for it. roll the dice. esp in the first 3 rounds, for me..... now someone may think it should be 4 or 5 rnds. so who knows what ever round. some agent and player is going to play russian roulette with the slotted money.... i just hope it is not the sox.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 08:47 PM) Exactly, which helps the Sox so much more. Years ago, Sox wouldn't of taken Rodon because of his salary demands. With the allotted amount at each pick, it makes it easier for teams like the Sox to pick Rodon regardless who the agent is. Yet, continuing to take BPA in other rounds is not possible because of salary demands from HS players because of the allotted money at the pick. You will lose that money if you do not sign that player through rounds 2-10, so it doesn't make sense to select a player that will not accept the slot money at that given pick past round 1. but even to the last draft, some posters were talking about the bpa idea. here is a question, beyond a certain round, it is all a crap shot.... so at what round should the BPA should be abandon???

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 08:40 PM) You might not think you are, but yes you are. Players are no longer allowed to sign anything but a standard minor league contract. There is no negotiation beyond the bonus money. and do you really believe that???? and they do have have have a sport agent to help in the contract negotiations.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 08:39 PM) People have been explaining these concepts to you for pages. Past that, there is nothing anyone else can do to help you. what has they been explaining.... not taking the BPA???? that still is the same thing of when the sox avoided picking Scott B clients b/c they wanted more money than anyone else??? i am saying that this... all this has been fixed with the salary cap for the draft with slotted money.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 08:21 PM) The other way to look at this going strictly by BPA. 1st pick is BPA and takes 6 million to sign/4.5 slot 2nd pick is BPA and takes 3 million to sign/ 1.8 slot There you have used your entire draft allotment in your first two picks. You either cannot sign anyone else in rounds 3-10 or anyone over $100k in rounds 11+, OR you can sign them but once you get more than 15% over your slot value (in this case would put you to 1.35 million additional dollars) you would lose your first round draft pick for the next TWO years AND pay a 100% tax on everything over your $9 million allotment. Again, which are you choosing to go fully BPA... losing draft picks, or not signing most of your draft? players in the first round #1 pick and the players chosen on the #15 pick in the first round.... the money is different. you can not arbitrarily use a blanket statement as the answer for all question in the draft. plus i am not talking about bonus money.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 08:10 PM) More examples: Let's pretend that the Sox have $9 million to spend on the draft. 1st round slot: 4.5 mil 2nd round slot: 1.8 mil 3rd round slot: 1 million 4th round: 740,000.00 and so on. If you took a player in the 3rd and he didn't sign, that's roughly $1 million that you now are not allowed to spend in this draft. It doesn't make sense. Teams have a specific amount of $$ now that they can spend on their top 10 selections. If they go over, penalties are severe. Every player drafted in rounds 11-40 has to be for $100,000 or less, otherwise the remainder goes into the pool for the top 10 selections. that is a good point.... again this is going to be done in the internal mtg with the players involve in making the selections of the picks. far beyond my pay grade.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 07:53 PM) because "without bonus money and dealing with the slotted money allowed thru the 10 rounds, a team will not blow thru their money." doesn't exist. Every team has a bonus pool based on the slot values of their relative picks. Their total number cannot go over a specific percentage over their pool before a team starts forfeiting draft picks. If a team were to pick with absolutely no regards to those picks, they would blow through their allotments way before all of their picks were signed. For example, take a look at the Sox picks this year. They went far over slot to sign Zangnari. Because of that, they had later picks which were significantly under the slot values to make their total fall under their allotted total. If they had kept picking the BPA, they would have spent WAY more than their allotment allowed them to do, and either couldn't have signed many picks to stay under the total, or they would have forfeiting future draft picks. This is reality. the slotted money with bonus money is now the discussion. this conversation is really taking a life of its own. i do not know the answers for the salary cap nor do i have the answers for the CBA..... if you do, tell me, per articles and numbered sentences .... instead of using a statement to make yourself look good. this show me kind of interrogations is a little tiring. if any of us have the answers, we should be working for the baseball org. . i still maintains, take the BPA available is the way to go.... if you say that is unreasonable..... and special agreements needs to agreed to ...... so what is the difference of now vs 10 yrs ago??? by the way, you are still not answering and diverting questions asked.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 07:41 PM) I do too. Sox have a formidable starting rotation with a pretty good bullpen. You can win with Eaton, Melky, and Abreu, just a matter of finding couple more players to build around. And that will be the task at hand. That's why I mentioned Heyward and Arenado/Longoria/Seager/Frazier/Rendon because these types of players are still in their prime and build around the line up. part of that i agree with you. but there is sooo much to look at .... but it will be answered at season end.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 07:45 PM) This is not dealing in reality. you asked me, now you answer why not. i am talking about the theory of the slotted draft, according to the CBA.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 07:40 PM) You can't take BPA in the baseball draft. It doesn't work that way. Here's a scenario for you: A stud HS player that is a top 25 talent in the draft is on the board in the 3rd rd when the Sox pick. He has said that he wants $5 million or he's going to college. It's well known that this player is headed to college instead of pro. Would you still take this player in the 3rd round because he's technically the best draftable player currently? and what will you do.... avoid this player.... yeah i would take him with the 3rd and roll the dice. but their are some stipulations that the org will need to think of .... internally.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 07:36 PM) I think you're really losing people here with your argument because people are confused what exactly you are trying to mean. While SS2k5 is saying if you do draft bpa, you blow through your draft pool money and that is the loss of draft picks which I know you aren't for. So you draft them, and they don't sign, it doesn't nothing to help the Sox in the future. D I don't really know your angle here because it is wrong. I'm sorry for being harsh, but it is. you you really know what you are spouting.... without bonus money and dealing with the slotted money allowed thru the 10 rounds, a team will not blow thru their money. it is the bonus money that the team wants to use to entice a player to sign. the first 3-5 round picks are really important and how ever, what the team and their people agree on the strategy to use, that is up to them. the time of avoiding all of Sctott B clients in the early rounds are gone. and agree to take that BPA

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 07:23 PM) We have been for years now, while still acknowledging that the current CBA actually exists.. That is the point. Your ranted is not applicable anymore. It hasn't been for years. i am saying with more intense words. take the BPA.... regardless of anything. so how is that the same theory esp when the sox org didn't follow it and found reason to justify their actions. now you have asked some interesting questions, how bout answering those question instead of diverting the the subject at hand....

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 07:23 PM) So, when you draft 5 plus players between rounds 11-25 that don't sign? What does that accomplish? and that is not part of this conversation. again, you are putting restrictions on draft picks.... so in essence how is that different from a decade ago??? just using another way to phrase the sentence / question.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 06:04 PM) The Sox need more than just better production from the DH spot in the order. RF, 3B, SS, LF and 2B need to improve in order for the Sox to be legit contenders next year. LaRoche/DH is only one problem among many. that was the same thinking many on this board was thinking.... and i was one of them. however, i still think like that, another yr has gone by and i still believe in it. now it is up to the FO to follow thru with it instead of stopping in mid rebuilding.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 07:17 PM) Why draft a player when you can't meet his salary demands or has already said he wants to go to college? When you take a player that won't sign, that's one less player from that draft, most likely a college senior or junior that you can possibly hit on. It just doesn't make sense. At all. and have been reading what is or has been posted..... BPA..... no restrictions attached to that statement.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 06:03 PM) Boras has very little leverage left with regards to the draft. He tried to get Hahn not to draft Boras according to one report, and as we saw....hahn called his bluff. but the team may be in a situation that he better show something, for an example, a top 10 pick instead of a comp pick the following yr's draft. but in general i will admit that the leverage of the super agent as diminished. but the main problem i do see is, if the player willing to sit around for his next draft time. that will raise a problem if he gets hurt. this happen 2 yrs ago and the player lost money that was on the table with hou.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 05:59 PM) lol @ learning something. Clinging to the same old outdated cliches isn't going to teach anyone anything. This is the exact mentality that brings us back decades to White Flag any time a trade is made. so what have i said that has mention many times before.... i am advocating on taking the BPA regardless of agent and any salary restrictions. so with that, enlighten me on how that is the white flag mentality..... but by your own words, stop living in the past on past mistakes.....

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 02:58 PM) Okay. I agree with that. I think they are doing that though. They signed Rodon. and thru that circuitous route, that they have always done in this owner tenure, i am saying take the direct approach, even be aggressive from this point on.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 02:59 PM) Stop living in the past. Those days are gone. You can't get a better personification of that than Carlos Rodon. i am not living in the past, i am explaining my reasons. btw, many posters have posted things that are considered living in the past esp drafting know prospects who can hit. so why did you used that a post to make this ever so superior of a statement. then again, you may learned something.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 02:27 PM) If the front office is not willing to accept that they made a serious mistake in acquiring LaRoche, and recognize his salary as a sunken cost, they can forget about fixing this team, for next season. They are not going to compete with him in the middle of their lineup. That has been apparent since very early in the season, and is now irrefutable. I don't care what they do with him, they have to be willing to move on. it all depends on the off season and the game plan they come up with. worst case, get another dh and platoon adam. accept the mistake and move on. improve the team.