Chisoxfn

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 05:33 AM) 2 weeks ago, i would have agreed with you. After last night, I really dont believe there is any chance Trestman survives and I think they will try as hard as they can to move Cutler I think the Cutler point is dependent on who they bring in. The money still points to them keeping most everyone.

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 05:59 PM) Please tell me Cutler demands a trade after this year. He is just awful now. I think this has a lot more to do with our coaching than Cutler, although Cutler deserves all the heat too. He is not the type of QB who you can put subpar talent around and win. He is the type of guy you put around a very good football team and strong running game with and can win. He is an average to slightly above avg QB, nothing more, and that slightly above average is only very slightly. Just listen to Gruden during the game...we literally are making high school mistakes. Our players clearly aren't buying into the coaching and the philosphy and have evidently tuned out our offensive coaches. Our scheme is awful, our playcalling is unimaginative, and our execution is beyond worthless. Players deserve blame but how you can watch this game and not realize just how bad our coaching is, is beyond me. Only guy I will give any credit to is our defensive coaches as they at least look like they are playing hard and trying. Part of that probably has to do with more rookies playing and fact that more guys have a true sense of pride about them. By the way, Martellus might have made some mistakes but he's clearly trying out there on the offensive side.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 04:02 PM) I agree, the White Sox are probably division title contenders but not world series contenders. This is of course based on noting that last year, the 2 teams in the world series were both teams that failed to win their division and assuming that trend continues. I see us as the exact opposite. If we make the playoffs, I think we are as good as anyone else, since two of our biggest flaws, are the 4th and 5th starter spot, which go away when you make the playoffs. I think we are, in our current construction, built to have playoff success. However, while I think we can be a playoff team, I don't think we are necessarily someone I would project as making the playoffs.

Welcome aboard!!!

QUOTE (shipps @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 02:18 PM) Good read. Brings the optimism down a notch but even he admits that the Sox have put themselves in the position to have a shot that they would not have had before. Give yourself a shot and its pretty much a crap shoot from there. Pretty much sums up a lot of my posts, especially the one about us being legit world series contenders...if we can make the playoffs. Our team is well built for the post-season...less so about making the playoffs. We have a chance, but to call us favorites would be misleading.

Who smells more...Dan, Matt, or Blake? In all seriousness, since we all know the answer is Blake...What prospects has the general public written off that we shouldn't and why?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 12:24 PM) 2 points: 1. Well of course adding in 2013 doesn't help, that was the sloppiest, most air headed, comically disinterested team on defense I've ever seen. 2. A few things that should actually improve in 2014, in addition to Melky > Viciedisaster, would include Abreu being a lot better at 1b since we hopefully won't have a couple months of him learning basic footwork and no Dunn/Konerko there. I included 2013 because defensive metrics can be an issue with sample size, however, 2013 employed a chunk of the same players and you talk about 13 being a disaster, yet 14 was much worse. Dunn actually being gone will be a positive as he was the equivalent of playing a clown in the field (well statistically speaking). I also agree that Abreu should improve, but his 2nd half defensive splits (really a very small sample size so not sure you can get much meaning out of it) were only slightly better than 1st half and still in the mega negative territory.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 12:23 PM) Ive already noted the areas I think they've improved, and I see very little in the way of negative offsets (again leaving out pitchers, I am not sure how to best evaluate for that). I'd bet they are more like 20th this year - below average. That's not good, but it is improvement. I think you need to balance all this. The team has made marginal defensive improvements. They've made a substantial rotation upgrade with an elite prospect around the corner, they've made a couple big stabilizing bullpen acquisitions, and substantially upgraded the offense. They've improved in all areas, it just happens that the improvement on defense is the smallest. My point of the post was showing how SIGNIFICANT of a defensive improvement they would need to make to even be the 25th best defensive team. The bottom 4-5 teams in baseball defensively were literally so bad they were in a planet all by themselves. I understand what you are saying but statistically it doesn't come together. I would say you would get some benefit in CF if Eaton was healthy all year, but I don't know what track record he has to pencil that in either. Bottom line, we have quite a few guys who are amongst the worst in their profession in their respected areas. The fact that we have two guys who are above average (Ramirez / Eaton) doesn't necessarily offset that. Yes, they are above average a platinum positions but Flowers is average. I will qualify this as saying Beckham was really bad last year so defensively we might be a lot better which could be a key driver (if you went from Beckham levels to even league average, that would be a nice driver..but again..nothing like the gap that existed from a year ago. I'm just stating that calling us close to a league average defensive team is pretty delusional in the face of who we have. We are significantly below average in the corner OF positions & 3B. 1B was well below average. Abreu's defensive improvement, which he shouldn't be as bad as he was, was a very slight correction over the 2nd half of the season vs. 1st half. It isn't as if, he turned into a league average defender. Even that I am hesitant to talk about because you are getting into an extremely small sample size.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 12:12 PM) First, I totally disagree about SS being now league average. Unless Alexei falls off a cliff he will again be well above average. Second, think of defense as money. Going from awful to mediocre has value, just as going from mediocre to good, and good to great. Third, not sure what you mean by "acceptable", as I'm not the GM. I am talking about what is possible. It seems hard for me to believe a team with above average D at SS and CF, somewhere around average (give or take) at C and 1B, a ? (neutral) at 2B and below average at LF, RF and 3B can be among the worst in baseball. That simply doesn't make sense. They will be below average, they won't be at the bottom. It goes without saying we all would like to see better. In 2014, as a team, we ranked 28th out of 30 teams (Cleveland / Houston ranking below us) w/-61.7 rating. Tigers were 26th at -57.9. 25th worst team was Rangers at -24.5. It is safe to say we haven't done anything to adjust our metrics that significantly (barring substantial improvements with our existing talent pool, most of which would be very difficult to project). Bottom line...I find very little reason to believe we will suddenly be close to middle of the pack (again...unless Connor / Melky / Avisail all make substantial improvements). Just not feasible, imo. Also, if you look back over the last 2 seasons, we rank 27th, so it isn't like last year was an outlier.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 11:18 AM) Here's the thing about all this spending: there's only one signing that "mortgaged" the future at all, and that's Robertson. IMO, Hahn's model of sustained winning is still in play. Even in the Samardzija deal, you figure that with a midseason trade or, if things go well, qualifying offer pick, Hahn will get back much of the value he gave up. It was Semien and a bunch of prospects that didn't even crack the top ten in a weak system. Essentially, Hahn is doing everything he possibly can to win SO LONG AS it doesn't affect the future. Scherzer would most definitely affect the future, so I don't think there's any chance we get him. The plan now is just to get better every year, not to "push the chips in" and go for broke when the iron feels hot. Great post and I agree. We also still have significant chips to buy at some of the key positions where we might not have internal candidates (e.g. 3B / C). I also think that my overall view becomes much more positive if we are able to land Shark to a contract.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 10:53 AM) I've been worried about defense as well but we're decently strong up the middle and even with Melky possibly being below average we got rid of an embarrassment of an outfielder. Defense certainly isn't our strength but it's improved. I will say that I think Avisail and Connor should be better defenders than their defensive metrics would indicate, and Melky shouldn't be as bad. Melky is older so any upside is less likely but with the right coaching and dedication, I think both Connor and Avisail can improve and should be at least league average at their respective positions. However, just because they could, doesn't mean they will. Connor's issues, to NS's points, are very much ingrained with his footwork. I'd even go as far as saying it is the poor footwork that leads to his mechanical / throwing issues. Footwork at 3B is critical. So if that happens to some extent, I could at least see us move closer to being league average (albeit still below)...which you can win with.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 10:41 AM) Two different ways to view Cabrera http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/two-differe...-melky-cabrera/ Good article. The thing I keep pointing to is right now we are probably an 82-86 win team with the ability to win a few more. You get in the playoffs and take away our weaknesses (e.g., 4th / 5th spot in rotation) and I look at that team on its own, and all of a sudden, I see one of the better teams in baseball. I think over a long season, the key to making playoffs will be health (as is the case with most teams) but the unique aspect will be that of Danks / Noesi. I think as they go, so will the Sox as that will be the unique difference between us being a near .500 team and being a team that is better than that and potentially a divisional winner / playoff team.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 10:29 AM) Yeah, this is where I am at as well. Melky is a highly-regarded teammate too. They really liked him in the Toronto clubhouse. So maybe he does silly things to protect his ego but at least when he's with the other 24 guys he's not going to be a problem. I was curious as to how Melky is viewed in the clubhouses. All of our moves to date have been good players, but also have been real pro's / good leaders.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 10:09 AM) The team has not ignored defense, that's an overstatement. Cabrera is a large defensive upgrade over Viciedo, LaRoche is a good defensive 1B who will play there some of the time, and a guy like Brantly is better than Phegley can provide (and better pitcher handling than a young Nieto). So there have been upgrades. I'd also suggest that 2B is an open question - Sanchez would be better than Beckham was I think, but Johnson would be a downgrade. So that is an unknown. Also worth noting - Abreu looked a lot better as the year went on, and Gillaspie has improved a little in my view. Flowers has improved quite a lot. So even in static positions there have been some positive trends that look good. The glaring defensive holes now are 3B and RF. I just don't see any other major defensive holes now. That doesn't seem that bad. Melky is a below average defensive outfielder by all defensive metrics. Def rating (Fangraphs) was -12.1 for Melky w/Steamer projection of -13.2 (2013 was -11.5 and 2012 was -5.8, 2011 -5.2, and 2010 was -15.7). That is a 5 year average of -9.2 so anyway you slice it, dude is below average in the outfield. Viciedo was -17.4 in 2014 with a Steamer of -5.3 (however if you project it out over a similar # of games as Melky it is -13.4 or roughly identical to Melky's steamer of 13.2). Viciedo was -12 in 2013 and -10.2 in 2012. Bottom line, Melky Cabrera is not a very good defensive player. Now these projections would make you think they are nearly equally as bad, but I don't think Melky is actually that bad. I'm not really going to get into back-up depth because at that point, impacts are minimized. Re: Gillespie, he was the 4th worst 3B in baseball last year by those same defensive metrics and if you normalized his games played with the people ahead of him, he would slide up to 3rd worse with Castellanos and Chisenhall being the only players who were worse. Got to at least be nice knowing we have the 3rd worst defensive 3B but 2nd best in our division

QUOTE (SoxAce @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 07:42 AM) Max is going to take a serious discount to pitch for us cause he loves the white sox and stuff. Only way we sign Max is if the market dries up and he's out there looking for a 1 year deal and is going to go back through the whole process again next year. Extremely risky on his end, but he certainly wouldn't be the first Boras client to have to go that route.

QUOTE (Jake @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 09:36 AM) To assume that Johnson will be starting at 2B - unless the Sox just don't give a s*** about his measurable readiness - and Rodon will put up 2 WAR is ludicrously optimistic. This isn't about "what could be," this is about what is the most likely outcome if weighting every possibility based on its individual likelihood. Sox absolutely love Micah. He will be playing at some point this season, and a lot. Call it what you will and I said nothing about his WAR, just that the writing is on the wall and this projection does not include Micah getting at bats.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 09:14 AM) You're right that 2 WAR may be optimistic, but this is still not projecting for him at all and I think he'd will provide the Sox with some very valuable innings this year. I agree. I also said the same thing about Micah, who the org considers to be more valuable than say Carlos Sanchez.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 09:26 AM) Melky is a defensive upgrade over Viciedo in LF and LaRoche upgrades 1B when he plays the field. How did the Sox not upgrade defensively? Viciedo is a butcher but Melky is a below average defender, albeit a little better. None are what I would consider measurable upgrades. LaRoche is a bit of an upgrade but we are talking about the least valuable defensive position in all of baseball (1b) and Abreu improved as the season went on. When you look at corner OF D and 3B D, we were putrid and have not really fixed that.

No...we have completely ignored our team defense. I just have a hard time fathoming that given how bad we were defensively and what everyone in baseball saw the Royals do. I'm not saying you need to replicate the Royals as that would be flawed logic. They got hot at the right time and had a bit of luck on their side, but the value of defense in a non-offensive era, is much more significant and we have completely ignored it.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 08:54 AM) I also feel this projection has been shortchanged due to a lack of representation for Rodon. I think he's probably a 2 WAR starter next year with the potential for more too. No offense Wite, but pass whatever you are sniffing. 2 WAR starter for a guy who was drafted last year is an incredibly unrealistic expectation for him, imo. Could he do it, certainly, but to do something like that, being drafted all of 6 months ago, is an extremely tough feat. I think for this year, we could look at Rodon as a guy who could hold is own in the 4th / 5th spot, while flashing some of that upside (and also getting hit at times).

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 08:56 AM) Darn, i wanted it to be Headley. He just signed a cheaper deal annually than Melky. I could make a lot of arguments that that was a much better deal than the Melky deal. The key to that is Headley's back. If it holds up, I have zero doubt that he'd have been a better signing, given our needs, specifically our defensive needs. That back is why I never was all that interested in signing him though. 4 years on a bad back at his age is a very risky proposition.

QUOTE (shipps @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 08:55 AM) Yeah I don't mind him. The older I get the more I find myself just watching the games now anyways. Not really paying to much attention to the broadcasts, Hawk is just whitenoise. And that goes for all sports. Not the Bulls...I flipping love hearing Stacey King and his homerisms when things are going good. He literally makes me LOL all the time.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 06:37 AM) By adding in a switch hitting RF, they've pretty much actually given Robin the materials he wants. He can balance lefties and righties throughout. They just need someone they have confidence in to take some PAs from LaRoche and Gillaspie from the RH side. Agreed. I wonder if that will be a vet FA signing or if it will be someone we acquire for Viciedo? At this point, we definitely have a very balanced lineup. A lot less easy outs than we had in years past. Defense is still suspect and back end of the rotation is iffy at best. This team should contend and be in the race come the trade deadline, which means, if there is an obvious flaw, they can potentially address it at that point, however, to truly be in a good spot, we need a bit more comfort in the rotation, imo. Who knows..maybe Danks is that much strong and surprises us all. I dont' want to mention Rodon because I think people have absurd expectations of him. I think everyone just assumes he can do what Sale did and well...they forget...Sale is a top 5 pitcher in the game...probably top 3 when healthy (Kershaw / King Felix / Sale).

QUOTE (Iwritecode @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 08:38 AM) So after the long wait I finally got a firm offer and was able to accept it. I just officially put in my 2-week notice at my current job. Starting on January 5th my commute will drop from 2+ hours to about 10 minutes. I’ll be dropping a little in salary but the massive savings in gas, tolls and free time at home definitely makes up for it. Good deal...congrats! That time savings will be huge.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 08:40 AM) would that be possible after giving Palmer all of that new paper three days before he tore up his knee? You would have to think their cap would be mangled next season if they brought cutler in too Probably true...I don't know all the nuances of the Palmer deal and how much was guarantee which ultimately will be a large driver of cap hit. Given his injury history, you would have thought they would have had some protection built in, but I don't know that for a fact. It is interesting, how, our organizational incompetence is making Jay look better and more mature, and that might actually allow us to truly start from scratch this off-season (if the franchise wanted to). By the way...I don't know if I endorse that or not. I think a lot of it comes down to where we are picking. It sickens me to say this, but I think Jameis is the franchise QB in this draft. But unless we brought in some real, powerful football people, to interview him and of course coach him and develop him (both as a person and a football player), I would be too worried about it turning into a disaster. Dude plays in an NFL system, massive pressure...yes he is an idiot, but Dilfer (in my opinion the best QB analyst in the game) just raves about him from his one on one's with him as well as watching film and just chatting with him. Say the guy just knows football and puts in the work. A lot of this comes down to that one case and what all the evidence was. If you throw that out (not saying you could...but if through interviews and everything, you felt comfortable he didn't do anything wrong)...than you could make a much bigger case that he is just a young guy who is growing up. Yes, his other actions were stupid...but they certainly weren't anything like the first allegation. More I type this...the more I don't know. Mariotta is obviously the safe bet, I just don't know that he is a pro QB. I have issues with him reading NFL defenses, etc. All I know is if we are going to go with a new QB, it is even more crucial to ensure we have a strong head coach and front office to hopefully make the right decision.