kapkomet

Man, I need to quit typing. The latest radar has a shower flaring up about 30 miles away heading toward the park.

So it's officially a delay as of now. Like I said it is clear to the west... the main storms have cleared the park if they do not reform...

QUOTE (tommy @ May 2, 2009 -> 05:56 PM) What happened? They have a "dome" for practice facilities and it collapsed in the middle of rookie camp due to straight line winds. Four people are in the hospital, 7 injured.

QUOTE (scenario @ May 2, 2009 -> 05:46 PM) I have a hard time picturing them playing tonight. Especially after the incident at the Cowboys practice field an hour ago. Gotta love these Texas thunderstorms. This wave of storms are through... but there's a boatload of rain that's come down. That field has to be drenched.

Radar Indicates That 2 To 3 Inches Of Rain Has Already Fallen. Another 1 To 2 Inches Will Be Possible Through 815 PM CDT. This from the NWS - I would be really surprised if the game is played.

There's a severe thunderstorm over the Ballpark now. It's raining so hard you can't see outside. I would be shocked if they played, although I guess they could if they delay it... there doesn't appear to be any more storms forming out west.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ May 2, 2009 -> 11:37 AM) Yes because if Jim Thome's double landed 6 inches higher and got out of the park that would have been a bad thing.

There's another storm that is forecasted to go through Arlington at about 5:00 or 5:30. These storms are putting down about 2 inches of rain an hour... I wonder if they might call it?

QUOTE (Texsox @ May 2, 2009 -> 02:37 PM) I am looking for a channel listing of my local cable company, Time Warner, based on the digital frequency, not the channel number. The guides are of no help because without a external box, the channel line up is completely different. Why? I can get you one from one of my old co-workers, but why?

So pretty much as I typed this, the storms weakened, although we've gotten very heavy rain. The Ballpark drains pretty well. As I said, though, there are storms reforming to the west... so stay tuned.

Well, severe storms all over the place right now. We're looking down the barrel of a golfball/baseball size hail storm on it's way, should cross over the ballpark at 3:15 or so. The storms are reforming to the west, so as I mentioned yesterday, we might see a DH tomorrow because the Sox don't come back to Arlington this year.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ May 2, 2009 -> 11:37 AM) 1. I think Chapter 7, or a 7-like tear-up while failing to exit Chapter 11, was highly likely, if no government guarantees on financing were provided. 2. No one can possibly know what portions the bondholders will get in this "controlled" bankruptcy versus a normal Chapter 11 - but either way, they wouldn't get full value. That is the nature of investing in debt. 3. I am tired of the UAW's negotiations partially ruining the very industry they work in, so I am ALL about them having to actually run the company. Let's see how they do things when they are in that position. 4. STILL, no one has proposed any alternative that ends better, other than to say there may be some other mystery suitors. Sorry, I don't buy it. 1. I don't think so. It's not the nature of something like this to just go belly up. And yes, I understand the government propping it. Which means they should get some ownership of it, as much as I don't like it. 2. I can know. The secured creditors ALWAYS get more then everyone else in a traditional bankruptcy. They get the highest equity amount in the new company. I don't understand why this is so hard for you people to fathom. The secured bondholders are getting screwed more then any other secured group in the long case history of bankruptcy as a % of debt owed by Chrysler going on. They had something like 40% (I can't remember) and they are getting 5-10%? That does not happen, traditionally. Are they going to get screwed more then the traditional bankruptcy? Yes, and I expect that, but not as much as they are getting shafted here, all for the government/UAW to take a larger cut then should normally happen. 3. I have said repeatedly, if you would read what I'm saying, that I agree with you - but I disagree with the amount they are getting. It's too much, IMO, but they CERTAINLY need to have an ownership stake because now they will be accountable. Hallelujah on this point. 4. Again, I say I agree with what has happened in principle. I'm not trashing it nearly as much as you want to say I am. However, I will always maintain that there were and are others that could have stepped in. There always are in things like this. But because the government had to back it originally, now they get to say what happens - which I totally disagree with but I understand. In this case, they are forcing a cram down that is contradictory to traditional bankruptcy law. And again, I don't know why you all are getting your panties bunched up by me saying this. It's a fact.

QUOTE (Rex Kicka** @ May 2, 2009 -> 08:24 AM) Please name another suitor? The only one I remember hearing about was GM, and that seemed like a brilliant idea! Keeping the company in private hands clearly didn't work, it wasn't going to stay solvent as a stand alone company... so who was gonna take it over? Why does it have to be someone "public"? There's thousands of private and public companies. I'll just leave it at that. You all want so bad for everything to work just as Obama wants it, because "there's no other way", and I'm telling you that it's simply not true. It amazes me that you all keep saying "this is the only way" and it's not something that has to be that way. I've been in this road in real life, and there's ALWAYS more to the story. Bankruptcy is a damn fickle thing, and I've dealt with it on a couple of levels. NSS, of course the bondholders are getting ripped off, but there is a difference between what is legally theirs in a "normal" CHAPTER 11 bankruptcy proceeding and what the government is forcing down their throat. They are losing at least 20% more then they otherwise would have. This comes back to the "redistribution of wealth" model that we've heard about over and over: and again, I do think that the UAW should get some of the company, but IMO not as much as they are getting - this is a model that "puts wealth back to its rightful owners" in the administration's mind. I'm not complaining about what's happening except to say there's too much of an interest going to the UAW where the bondholders should get more because it was their investments that kept the company going before the government threw their pittance in. With a CHAPTER 7, all this doesn't matter because no one gets anything anyway. And Chapter 7 was pretty unlikely.

QUOTE (Rex Kicka** @ May 1, 2009 -> 08:49 PM) Isn't that what happened when Daimler spun it off to Cerberus? Chrysler had been looking for a buyer for a year. There was a reason FIAT wouldn't even bother to get involved (and frankly any buyout there would result in a bigger disaster when FIAT implodes in 18 months). Chrysler had been seriously f***ed for years. QUOTE (StrangeSox @ May 1, 2009 -> 08:58 PM) It doesn't help that Chryslers cars are all usually in the bottom of their respective classes in terms of value, depreciation, quality, reliability, desirability, etc. At least Ford and GM have improved their model lines lately. Yes, they have been screwed up. And yes, it's true that Chrysler is the bottom of the big three. But they would have not outright liquidated (Chapter 7). And FIAT was not the only suitor... but it's the one the government took.

QUOTE (lostfan @ May 1, 2009 -> 08:29 PM) I liked this: Yea, I did too. The whole thing is really good.

QUOTE (Paint it Black @ May 1, 2009 -> 08:27 PM) He fears a Swine Flu outbreak in Texas. Nice. I am so sick of hearing about this damn flu. All the schools are closed down here now, but I digress.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ May 1, 2009 -> 02:03 PM) Obama's first 100 days via his facebook status. LOL This rocks. I love it.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 1, 2009 -> 07:50 PM) Between the mess that Chrysler is in general and the economic conditions right now, I simply disagree, and I'll leave it at that. You cannot believe everything you read on blogs, my friend. There are deals being made right now where the right opportunities exist, and the government doesn't need to be involved, contrary to everything that's being pushed in the media right now. I guarantee that Chrysler could have easily been absorbed in a reorganization without government help. But that's not how it happened, so we won't ever know, except I do know that there's some serious White House strong arming going on to force a cram down the exact way they want it. That's a fact that cannot be disputed. There are ALWAYS two sides to every story in deals like this.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 1, 2009 -> 07:44 PM) My key point...without the Federal government stepping in, it would wind up in chapter 7. The only reason why it is not in chapter 7 is the actions of the government. No one is buying a car from a bankrupt company if they think there's a 10% chance their warranty is going to suddenly vanish because the car company went up in smoke. But if the government guarantees to keep the company running and guarantees the warranties and uses its funds as the bridge loan that the company can't get otherwise right now because of the credit market, then the company has a chance to survive chapter 11. In other words, the only reason those bondholders are getting anything is that the government stepped in. Otherwise, it was going to chapter 7 and its doors would already have been shut. I seriously doubt it. There could have been deals made - without the government help. Credit "crunch" or not.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ May 1, 2009 -> 07:42 PM) This team really hits well when its 73.4* with 46% humidity and a 10-12 MPH SW wind. That's when the bats really come alive. It's too humid tonight.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 1, 2009 -> 07:06 PM) That assumes though that Chrysler has a lot of assets that could be sold off. If the company has to shutter itself completely, the only assets it has are auto production lines, but those are pretty worthless if you're not building cars. The top of the food chain would get basically a bunch of empty buildings, to my eyes...if it wasn't for the guarantee of government help that they believed they were getting when they bought whatever bonds have exchanged hands in the last 8 months or so. You are confusing two very distinct issues. Liquidation (Chap 7) vs. Reorganization (Chap 11). There was always very little chance of Chapter 7... they were holding out (aka buying secured notes) for Chapter 11. Again, under a liquidation, no one gets anything, period, except the proceeds, which as you note is nearly worthless. You are co-mingling the two, as was Rex it would appear based on his post...

It's the third inning already? Damn! I so wanted to go... I might go tomorrow but FYI for ya'll up north... () - tomorrow's probably going to be a rainout, which means DH on Sunday - the rain is supposed to clear by Sunday night.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 1, 2009 -> 06:52 PM) Another point worth noting is that a lot of the current bondholders are people who bought those bonds expecting that they could get a solid return on their investment because they were buying in when Chrysler was looking like it was going to go totally bankrupt and they were anticipating that the government would give them an assist. Yes. Good call... except I would re-phrase - the government doesn't have to give them an assist, per se, because under normal reorganization, the secured holders are at the top of the food chain.

QUOTE (Rex Kicka** @ May 1, 2009 -> 06:30 PM) So if they went bankrupt, the same bondholders now crying foul would be receiving a similar if not worse deal. Especially, if the company went into liquidation. I need to chime in here because there's a lot of stuff that's not true being posted here. No, Rex. Under a regular reorganization (Chap 11) bankruptcy, these bondholders are secured creditors. That means they would have gotten "proceeds" before anyone else - most likely with the equity that the UAW is getting without any monetary investment. These people were guaranteed a lot more money contractually, even in this bankruptcy proceeding scenario, before the government stepped in and is now stiff-arming their plan through. Bankruptcy is what should have happened a long, long time ago before the government got involved. To your point about liquidation (Chap 7), they all are screwed anyway, so that is a moot point because no one gets a thing anyway except the proceeds of the sale of the company - and even then, the secured bondholders get paid first. And, for the record, since I'm chiming in here, I DO agree with the UAW getting a piece of the pie simply because now they get to manage the company in real partnership with the rest of management and they cannot blame their management anymore for their wrongs after the restructure. Frankly, it worked "rather" well in the steel industry - not in total, but at least it was a step in the right direction.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Apr 24, 2009 -> 03:38 PM) I didn't read that full report because I already know mostly everything that it would say, but the only thing done wrong in this report vs. any other one was a poor QC. What it said was accurate, but poorly worded. At work, whenever I write something I always stop to think "what if this somehow got leaked to the media?" Whoever was responsible for that report didn't do that carefully enough. Which is the point. Take a little more time and get it right. They wanted this out to counter the "tea party movement". Anyway, I'm done.