HuskyCaucasian

Some STAGGERING early voting numbers:

Command (Open Apple), Shift, 3 That will take a snapshot of your entire screen and save it as a PNG file on your desktop. Command (Open Apple), Shift, 4 THat will allow you to select an area of your screen and only capture that part. Command (Open Apple), Shift, 4, Space Bar That will allow you to snap shot a "window" in an application.

Here's something to factor in: Early Voting and Exit Polls Basically.... due to the MASSIVE early voting going on, exit polls may not be very accurate this year. Especially in states where the exit polls show the race as close.

The politico has Obama's "short list" for cabinet positions: Too Long to Post

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Oct 31, 2008 -> 02:10 PM) Since SurveyUSA has some easy to read cross tabs, I'll take a look at what their polls have said: Iowa: Obama 55 - McCain 40 Dem: 45% Rep: 29% More on Iowa: Independents: Obama 49% - McCain 43% Republican: Obama 14% - McCain 43% Democrats: Obama 85% - McCain 11% Since Iowa is basically split along party lines with Obama having a 6% lead in independents, It's conceivable how McCain could see a chance to win Iowa if the party id was split 33%-33%-33% Or, even if the party id was like 2004 (Rep-36%, Dem-34%, Ind-30%). But even being conservative, I'd give the Dems a 2-3% party id advantage. So, there is a VERY slim road for McCain to win Iowa. Update: Using the SurveyUSA numbers, If the party ID was split like 2004, Obama would still win 49-47 (within the margin of error). If you run it 36% Dem, 34 Rep (inverse of 2004), Obama wins 50-45. If you assume the 2008 party ID is accurate, McCain needs to win 75% of the independents to make Iowa a 49-49 tie. Assuming Dems only account for 38%, and Reps count for 35%... Obama wins 50-45... McCain would need 57% of Independents to tie at 49% So, i can see how McCain MIGHT think he can win there, it's highly unlikely.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 31, 2008 -> 01:54 PM) Every poll I have seen of current party affiliation shows a 10-12-ish point lead right now for the Dems. So if anything, I'd say most polls are identifying far too many Republicans. This is just the McCain camp trying to get the base to show up at the polls, by illustrating they have a chance. Since SurveyUSA has some easy to read cross tabs, I'll take a look at what their polls have said: Iowa: Obama 55 - McCain 40 Dem: 45% Rep: 29% Missouri: Tied at 48 Dem: 36% Rep: 33% New Hampshire: Obama 53 - McCain 42 Dem: 30% Rep: 29% North Carolina: Tied at 47 Dem: 44% Rep: 39% Ohio: Obama 49 - McCain 45 Dem: 45% Rep: 35% Pennsylvania: Obama 53 - McCain 41 Dem: 52% Rep: 41% Virginia: Obama 52% - McCain 43% Dem: 38% Rep: 30% Wisconsin: Obama 55% - 39% Dem: 37% Rep: 32% The only state that seems way off compared to party id in 2004 exit polls is Iowa. Every other states seem within reason based on the current political climate. (PS: Dem voted ID in Penn is up 10 points)

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 31, 2008 -> 01:43 PM) LINK ahhhh cap and trade. yet another McCain Flip-Flop.

A McCain pollster is on MSNBC right now. Here's what he's saying in regards to the polls. Basically, he says the "party identification" numbers used by most polls are way off. They believe the democrats have a 3-4% lead on party identification, while most pollsters say it's closer to 5-7%, if not higher. He said we have a "political structure" in America where party identification is nearly identical. (Roughly 33% Dem, Rep, and Ind/Other) Apparently they dont think the voter registration numbers in states that trace party affiliation are very wrong or something. I think he's very wrong on that. not this year. There are a LOT of people who are pissed of with not only Bush, but the Rep party. I think only a 3% difference is not accurite.

QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Oct 31, 2008 -> 11:21 AM) Iowa: 22 polls since May 1st. All 22 showed Obama with a lead. Average Obama lead in the state is 11 pts, hardly a tossup. Well, in all fairness, both the Obama and McCain campaigns have said they think Iowa is closer than most polls show according to their own internal numbers. However, I've been thinking... I would tend to say that campaigns would be rather conservative in their polling. They probably have various levels of poll data on any given state. One would be "best case scenario". Another would be "moderate expectations". and the other would be "past results based". My theory is that Obama's "past results based" polls show a state like Iowa much closer. But even their "moderate expectations" have him fairly solid. Just today the McCain camp said Iowa is "Dead even" according to their internal numbers.

Barack Obama's Running mate: "Joe the Biden" or is it "Joe O'Biden"?

McCain Sinking in Arizona (not just for president):

Ted Stevens: I Haven't Been Convicted Yet ok, can a legal expert advise on this? Is he technically correct? I've always assumed once you were found guilty, you were guilty until someone else says otherwise. Is this just horribly misleading spin?

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 31, 2008 -> 11:02 AM) I'll be in Indiana this weekend volunteering for the Obama campaign. My wife said while I was out grocery shopping yesterday, the Obama campaign called and asked if I wanted to go to Indy this weekend. Unfortunately my work schedule and newborn baby dont give me that flexibility.

For those who remember 2000: What's interesting is that he's factually wrong as best as I can tell. According to CNN, polls in Alaska dont close until 1AM Eastern Time on Nov 5th. So technically, even if Obama gets a clear sweep of states like Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida... the networks wont be allowed to announce the winner until 1AM. There is a VERY possible scenario where Obama could have 270 electoral votes by about 10PM Eastern. That's BEFORE states like California, Oregon, and Washington close their polls and all those states are expected to go to Obama. I COMPLETELY understand why they are trying to make the election as fair as possible, but if it's a landslide, how can they not call it? John King in front of his touchscreen TV on CNN: "Well, It's 10 PM eastern and as you can see by the electoral map, we project that Barack Obama has crossed the 270 electoral threshold to become president. But this election is still too close to call. We'll have a better idea at 1AM after Alaska closes"

Obama camp feels confident:

Weather for Obama's Tuesday Rally: Day Time High: 64 Night Time Low: 50 Mostly Sunny all day 10mph winds Should be a slightly chilly, but nice evening.

QUOTE (joeynach @ Oct 30, 2008 -> 09:27 PM) I was able to get more drawings of the construction, check it out. :headbang Nice job

QUOTE (Reddy @ Oct 30, 2008 -> 02:34 PM) you do mean the 18-70+ vote right? well that too

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Oct 30, 2008 -> 12:52 PM) The grade school / Jr High I work for is holding a school wide presidential election today. I'll post the results when I find out. I remember doing this when I was in school here. Kinda cool. McCain won. They didnt announce a vote count. Not surprising for a Lutheran school.

QUOTE (GoSox05 @ Oct 30, 2008 -> 02:04 PM) I like that Map John King plays around with. Where he can zoom in and out. I would like to have one of those at home on election night. Same here. i think they tend to over use it, but I want it. Did you notice MSNBC now has their own "touch TV"? copycats

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 30, 2008 -> 01:55 PM) I'll bet Bill Ayers would have gotten them right. Lieberman had to explain them to McCain

Palin at Solar Power Plant: Drill, Baby Drill D'OH!

QUOTE (Reddy @ Oct 30, 2008 -> 01:39 PM) but he's got obama right where he wants him. just remember that. Obama may have the critical 18-35 vote, but McCain will DOMINATE the newborn to 17 vote. It might just push him over the top.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Oct 30, 2008 -> 12:23 PM) haha oops! man, this campaign has just completely unraveled. and over half the "crowd" was bussed in from a school district So, they bussed in people who cant even VOTE (with the exception of maybe some High School seniors who may be 18) to fill in a McCain rally.

QUOTE (longshot7 @ Oct 30, 2008 -> 12:52 PM) The drummer from my band is from Iran oh... so you have links to terrorism. That's what McCain would say.