HuskyCaucasian

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 12:14 PM) I'd be very cautious with exit polls. Look at 2004. actually, I did look at 2004. The average difference between exit poll results and actual results was a combined total of 0.78 (Kerry polls were off by .39 and Bush by .39) The largest difference was 1.58% for Kerry and 2.01 for Bush. So, even at WORST, if someone is leading by 4 points, the exit polls show he's probably going to win. PS: the Dem primaries (non-caucus states) were a total of 1.67 points off (Obama .9, Clinton .77)

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 12:11 PM) Obama doesn't even need FL to win. If he takes OH along with the Kerry states, Obama wins. All those other toss-up states, like VA, NC, CO, NM, NV, etc., are just icing. we will get exit polls out of VA at 6PM. I'm of the opinion that if they show Obama up by more than say...4 or 5 points, I'd call the election for Obama. Obviously the networks cant call it, but if you look at all the other states, an Obama win in VA is nearly a lock for an electoral college win.

We've been talking about Ohio, PA, FL, ect. So, I thought I would flash back to 2004. RCP FL (Oct 22-26): Bush- 48.857 Kerry- 46.57 Final Result: Bush 52-47 RCP OH (Oct 22-27): Bush- 47.167 Kerry- 48.5 Final Results: Bush 51-49 (Bush took the lead in polls starting Oct 26th and never looked back) RCP PA (Oct 22-27): Bush- 47 Kerry- 49.25 Final Results: Kerry 51-49 Take from this what you want. But if Obama is +5 or more in OH and PA at this point in time, it looks very good for him. A 1 point lead in FL does NOT look good for Obama. OBVIOUSLY, this is a different election and Obama's ground game is strong. So, FL is still in play. But it's hard to poll "snow birds" who are just migrating south.

QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 11:28 AM) the Jackson name is tarnished. Maybe Jr should cut Sr's nuts off.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 10:35 AM) That looks like an airplane parked outside of an airport. Isn't there a silhouette of luggage in the pic? do you REALLY think they are implying it's an airport?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 10:35 AM) Beat you by 2 days. With a better view of the thing too. thank ya! my bad

Not sure if this was mentioned, anyone else a little disgusted that the RNC would use a picture of an Airplane about to fly into a building to attack Obama as soft on terror?

QUOTE (lostfan @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 08:33 AM) If Obama wins, who's running for his vacant Senate seat? As was pointed out, the Gov gets to appoint the replacement. Here is an article from last week: The upshot: U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. wants the spot. Sneed hears Gov. Blago, who dismisses reports of a federal probe, wants to run for office again -- and believes replacing Barack with an African American is a smart political move. But he is being urged to select state Sen. Donne Trotter, a close friend of Obama mentor/Senate President Emil Jones, to fill the spot. Sneed is also told U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, who is this/close to Obama and was a major Obama supporter from the get-go, is pitching to have state veteran affairs chief Tammy Duckworth fill Obama's spot, and had the ear of Gov. Blago until recently. Blago is also a big Duckworth fan. My money's on Jesse Jackson Jr. Smart. Young. Name Recognition.

D'OH! McCain Urged Reagan To Meet Terror Groups Without Precondition

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 09:30 AM) 538 seems to think they are halfway decent. Big 10 maybe not. But with them both showing those numbers, I think it will be interesting to see other polls for OH in the next couple days. hmmmm... SUSA is still my indicator. I'll half trust most polls, but if SUSA confirms something, I'll believe it. FWIW: The last SUSA a month ago in IN had McCain only +3 and Obama +5 in Ohio 10 days ago. So, Ohio might be lean Obama, but IN is a toss-up.

The newest piece of junk mail forwarded to my by my grandmother (I swear she thinks everything that hits her in-box needs to be forwarded): My retort:

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 10:06 AM) Quinnipiac shows Obama +13 in Ohio as well. Seems less like an outlier now. I have reservations about Quinnipiac

I dont think the "Big Ten Battleground Poll" is very legit, but they have Obama +10 in Indiana and +12 in Ohio. Public Policy Polling has Obama +2 in Indiana.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 09:54 AM) I figured it was obvious she was joking...? Trig... Track? I'm not so sure.

The Almost Next Palin: Zamboni Palin Wow, secessionist Tod is the sane one. What the hell is wrong with this woman? So, since i am a huge baseball fan, I am thinking of naming my first born son FieldTarp.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 09:27 AM) For all the complaining the McCain camp has done about Dems bringing up Joe the Plumber I find it odd that McCain is doing a Joe the Plumber tour today. but but but.... Barack exploited him and put him unfairly in the spotlight. It's amazing how often I've seen "projection" from those that oppose Obama. Hillary did it, now McCain. They do something, then say it's Obama who is actually doing it.

Not really effective, but funny. We need more political ads with talking moose heads.

What is a precondition? ummm... diplomatic strategy. Isnt meeting with someone in and of itself a diplomatic strategy? By definition, a "pre-condition" is agreeing before hand (pre) to a set of circumstances (conditions) like: stop your centrifuges and we'll talk about getting you outher energy sources.

The last scene in "Field of Dreams". Hands down. cry every time. If you dont cry at the end, you're lying or not human. lol

GOP Pulling Its Ads From Bachmann's Race

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 22, 2008 -> 01:26 PM) Even if it's 100% true...how much of the responsibility for his brother's actions/mistakes should we hang on Joe Biden? If my brother gets in trouble with the law, it's not exactly incumbent on me to help make sure that the legal matter gets settled. exactly. My sister was involved in a car accident a few months back. She was held at fault (long story there). So, if she didnt pay up the $300, does that mean they should come to me and demand I pay or demand I make her pay? Her problem is her problem.

QUOTE (Cknolls @ Oct 22, 2008 -> 01:23 PM) Here's another Enquirer story: http://www.nationalenquirer.com/sen_joe_bi...celebrity/65619 Thoughts? So, Joe's brother Frank is involved ian hit and run, yet it's Joe's fault Frank isnt paying up. Odd.

QUOTE (Gene Honda Civic @ Oct 22, 2008 -> 11:54 AM) The Making (and Remaking) of McCain, the NYT Magazine piece, is live. Well, i guess he wont answer that 3AM call... too busy sleeping. Palin's Qualifications for VP: Consistency, Confidence, Good Looking As a whole, the article was very interesting. Nothing I would call shocking, but interesting. It seems to me like McCain wasnt / isn't really running his campaign. He's lettering Davis do it and he just signs off on it.

QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Oct 22, 2008 -> 12:07 PM) http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/21/taxes-irs...021beltway.html Anti-Socialists!!!

So, what does the Obama campaign know that we dont? We've talked about Georgia and a little about ND. So, those dont really surprise me. But SC and AZ? RCP has McCain +11.3 in Arizona as of September 28th and McCain +12.7 in South Carolina as of just a few days ago. The Obama campaign is ambitious, but not stupid. They wouldnt dump money into AZ and SC unless they really thought they could win there. What do they know?