Marty34

You can find numbers to show a player is worthy of keeping and you can find numbers that show a player is worthy of letting go. Sabermetrics has evolved into just as big of a racket as scouting. After all these advancements in numbers funny how the most telling statistic for a player remains age.

I've changed my mind on this, the Sox should listen to offers for Sale. Combined with the money they have to spend and the #3 pick, the package they could get in return for him could definitely jump start the rebuild.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 8, 2013 -> 10:57 AM) Marty what are you basing this on? This notion is insane. They have already budgeted for Ethier's contract -- it's a sunk cost. They knew that Cano would be a free agent in 2013 when they extended Ethier. They are not going to give their prospects away for money. I've heard both arguments. The Sox would be crazy to pay for a prospect and the Dodgers (or Pirates) aren't going to give prospects up for money. What IS crazy is paying a 4th OF'er like Ethier $72M.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 8, 2013 -> 11:45 AM) This sealed bid thing, if true, is puzzling to me. Unless they only think one team is going to offer a boatload of money, why not open him up for auction? Because no one knows where to value him at. Pretty smart of the agent, if the bids come in close that's when the negotiations begin.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 8, 2013 -> 09:41 AM) Since the Dodgers literally have no need to "Save money", the only reason why they should trade Ethier is if they get something back that makes their team better next year. They would probably be willing to throw in money to make that happen, but they need to get something immediately valuable back to have it make sense, and they are not going to throw in any prospect in exchange for the other team eating salary, because they're loaded. The actual deal for Ethier will be something like "Ethier plus $40 million for Hector Santiago and Jordan Danks". They get a strong arm to put at the back of their rotation instead of Edinson Volquez, they give up enough money to make Ethier no-longer overpaid for the team taking him on. They have no reason to trade him for less than that, they can wait and have 4 OF's who play interchangeably until someone offers them that quality of a deal, one that makes their team better right now and fills their major need right now. Eithier is not worth Santiago if the Dodgers pick up Eithier's entire contract. I think the Dodgers would very much like some team to pick up Either's contract and might be willing to give a pretty good prospect. I hear they like Cano.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Oct 7, 2013 -> 03:22 PM) Does anyone think we might target Ethier from the Dodgers. I'd rather have him than Granderson. I like this idea. Take Eithier's entire contract if they throw in Joc Pederson.

I think the Sox and Jays match up well as trading partners this offseason. I know there has been speculation on the board about a Quintana-for-Lawrie deal, but how about taking on Reyes' contract and swapping Santiago for Lawrie instead? a deal something like Santiago, Ramirez, and Beckham for Reyes and Lawrie.

By my quick and dirty math, the Sox can add nearly $70M to payroll from where it stands now meaning the options they have at their disposal are too numerous to mention. Should be a fun offseason.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 5, 2013 -> 08:46 PM) And so did 28 other teams. It was pretty much common knowledge from the very beginning that nobody was going to outspend Yankees' West. Lots of swing and misses. For the best GM's in the game. Like Mike Trout. Or picking up Chris Davis when he was available to practically every team in the league, etc. The last big time player we picked up was Quentin who had a huge impact on the offense. Thanks for reaffirming my point.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 5, 2013 -> 08:39 PM) Like with Viciedo and Puig? They were in to the very last second on both of those guys. Cespedes, to a lesser extent. The only one they weren't pursuing hard was Soler. Exactly. The Sox had the top "sealed bid" on the wrong guy.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Oct 5, 2013 -> 05:40 PM) Why? Not disagreeing, just trying to understand your point. The Sox recent track record scouting hitters leaves me to believe that whatever their sealed bid is it will be way off.

I wouldn't be too enthused about the sealed bid process if I were the Sox.

Team assembled without trades, payroll of ~$105M C McCann age 32 $15m signed in '14 1B Abreau age 29 $10m Signed in '14 2B Micah Johnson age 25 SS Trea Turner age 23 3B Semien age 26 LF Markakis age 32 $10m Signed in '15 CF Rasmus age 30 $20M Signed in 15 RF Garcia age 25 SP Sale age 27 SP Quitana age 27 SP Santiago age 28 SP Johnson age 26 SP Danks age 31

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 04:05 PM) But who would offer a prospect to the White Sox for taking on a bad contract anyway? Let alone the ype of guy that would make this worthwhile -- we're talking like Taillon or Buxton or some other untouchable. Why is it that only an untouchable prospect would be worth $30M? You won't even be able to get Abreau for that.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 03:51 PM) Yes, but the point is, you don't have to take on $30 million in bad contracts for a shot at it. You can find these guys by signing players to 1 year deals and shipping them off if/when out of contention, claiming guys off waivers, signing minor league free agents, and making miscellaneous trades otherwise. About the only other way you are going to get that kind of young bat right now is by trading a pitcher, and while I'm OK with that, the organization has to be 100% sure it's the right guy. If they are offered the right prospect why not, right?

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 02:51 PM) That could be Viciedo or Semien too. Maybe it's Mat Gamel. Rather than attempting to acquire prospects for $30 mill, I think the Sox just need to take more chances on waivers and on failed prospects in general (as well as young prospects who haven't reached the majors). For every Matt LaPorta, Dallas McPherson, and Joe Borchard you get the occasional Jayson Werth or Chris Davis. Travis Snider is a guy I think the Sox could acquire for cheap who absolutely destroyed minor league pitching but hasn't done anything in the majors. Find the next Carlos Quentin. There are guys out there that can be had for cheaper. I don't think putting all of your eggs in one basket is the right idea. I think you narrow your search down to about 10 guys you feel can be impact bats at the MLB level and then you do what you can to acquire them. They should be getting these guys in addition to trying to get another top young hitter.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 02:46 PM) I don't think building a team by buying someone else's failed free agents is the way to go. Fair enough.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 02:35 PM) Prospects represent an even smaller possibility of turning into productive hitters than anyone on the free agent market. I don't think building a team through free agency is the way to go, SS2K5.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 02:29 PM) Except that the core young hitter could very easily be a free agent in the form of Jose Abreu. For whatever reason, it seems that you consistently ignore this point. No I want one more young hitter in addition to the possibility of Abreau.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 02:20 PM) Marty, if it turns out to be as bad as you believe, then they will go on an extended rebuilding period and Sale will be traded along with many others. If it's not as bad as you believe, the team spends some money in the next couple offseasons and they are competitive and perhaps even win a Wild Card or Division championship, then everything was worth it and they are still in a position to compete in 2016. You are adament about not spending on guys like McCann and Ellsbury and Granderson, but really those kinds of deals can turn out great for the team - Jermaine Dye was signed at the age of 31 and had 5 pretty great years for the Sox, Thome was brought in at 35 and had 4 good years for the Sox too, so why can't the Sox sign two guys who will turn 30 next year and expect them to be productive for an extended period of time? I want one more core young hitter added to Garcia before considering free agents. That's going to be the difficult piece to get.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 02:13 PM) Paying that premium is not the solution. The money you are talking about spending is so disproportionate to value that it wouldn't hardly make a dent. If you were eating a few million here and there it might work. Otherwise it's really no different than overspending on FA to try and correct the problem. One day you wake up and you've spent a s***load of money and have one of the worst farm systems in MLB. If they don't get the prospect they want they don't spend the money. It boils down to talent evaluation.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 02:10 PM) Any prospect worth paying another team $30 million to acquire is probably going to cost a decent amount during his arb years. You are eliminating all the cheap years. This team doesn't have enough pieces to build around for that to be a concern as of now unfortunately.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 02:04 PM) Hardly any, because of the service time requirements. But that surplus gets obliterated because of the attrition rate of prospects that turn into good mlb players. Right, but as mentioned in my earlier post the Sox are embarking on a rebuild with one of the worst farm systems in MLB. They are in a position where they have to pay a premium to shorten the process.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 01:34 PM) Marty, what E and Wite are trying to point out is that prospects in and of themselves hold no greater value than any other player other than the price at which they cost to retain. If there was a liquid market for veteran players and cost was not an issue, one would choose the predictability of veteran players 10 times out of 10 over prospects. When you start paying $30 million dollars for players that have an attrition rate that prospects have, you're not only devaluing much of the value the good prospects have, but you are obliterating the value of prospects in general. How many free agents are there where you are going to be able to buy their 24-29 years for $30M?

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 01:10 PM) The chances are not at all equal. You are much much more likely to get what you paid for, at least in the short term, with a free agent, than you are to ever get any value from a prospect. I'm not advocating building the team via free agency, I'm just saying that buying prospects at free agent prices is even worse. Sure, but the team isn't going to make the playoffs short-term.