Kalapse

QUOTE (Socal Cid @ Oct 14, 2009 -> 07:13 PM) Again, I am not talking about pre-arb negotiation. The question that started this whole thread concerned what Danks' number whould be at arbitration this year. During arbitration there is no discussion/comparison whatsoever concerning multi-year deals. The teams and owners submit as evidence one-year deals only. In the pre-arb process I am sure Jeff Berry and the boys at CAA will compare Danksy to Lester in an attempt to convince KW that Danksy should be paid similar to Lester. But again, once the parties enter arbitration there will be no discussion in front of the arbitrator about multi-year deals. During Bonderman's first year of arbitration (when he was decidedely younger than Danks) he had amassed 1 more career inning pitched and 4 more career k's than Danks. Bonderman had the exact same amount of wins as Danks, but a higher ERA and more losses (he played for a horrible Tiger team). All in all, I still think they are very comparable. And I still think if Danks signs a one-year deal or goes to arbitration his number will be in the 2.3M neighborhood. I never said anything about pre-arb negotiations, no idea where you got that. The Sox and Danks will never go to arbitration, they'll work out a 1 year or multi year deal before the deadline since the Sox do not go to arbitration with their players, that's what I'm talking about. I'm not worried about the process at arbitration hearings since it will not come to that. Playing for a horrible team doesn't account for the full run difference in ERA and near 30 point difference in ERA+. You can't just ignore the fact that John Danks has had 1 very bad year and 2 well above average seasons where as Bonderman had 3 mediocre seasons, there's a big difference in how they got to those 3 year cumulative statistics. Another point: Wandy Rodriguez; 4.79 ERA, 1.41 WHIP through his first 3 years of service, 30 years old gets $2.6M in his first year of arbitration. He submitted a figure of $3M. Justin Verlander; 4.11 ERA, 1.33 WHIP through his first 3 years of service, 26 years old gets $3.675M in his first year of arbitration. He submitted a figure of $4.15M John Lackey; 4.15 ERA, 1.37 WHIP through his first 3 years of service, 27 years old gets $3.76M in his first year of arbitration. Joe Blanton; 4.10 ERA (105 ERA+), 1.31 WHIP through his first 3 years of service, 27 years old gets $3.7M in his first year of arbitration. Scott Kazmir; 3.64 ERA, 1.39 WHIP through his first 3 years of service, 24 years old gets $3.785M in his first year of arbitration. Paul Maholm; 4.30 ERA, 1.41 WHP through his first 3 years of service, 27 years old submitted a figure of $3.8M before signing a multi-year deal. Got $2M in '09 and a $1.5M signing bonus. Also in 2004 the Sox gave a 24 year old Jon Garland $2.3M avoiding arbitration. He put up a 4.60 ERA and 1.459 WHIP over the first 3 years of his career. That was 6 years ago, same organization, substantially less accomplished starter and only a 5 month difference in age. Hell even Kyle Lohse won his case and got $2.4M with his s*** numbers. Just speaking hypothetically: if the Sox went to arbitration with Danks and submitted a figure of $2.4M and Danks submits $3.6M no doubt in my mind who wins that one.

QUOTE (Socal Cid @ Oct 14, 2009 -> 06:00 PM) Lester's deal was a multi-year deal. I was speaking in simply one-year terms to avoid arbitration. There is a big difference. In 2005 (when Bonderman was first-time arbitration eligible) his numbers are very similar to Danks at this point in his career. Now, not so much. Maybe my figures were a little undervalued, especially since it was 4 arbitration seasons ago, but you cannot take Leter's 3.4M figure because that was a mutli-year number. You can take Lester's figure, that's what the agent will do when he goes to negotiate with the Sox before arbitration. He'll point out that Lester has been valued at $3.75M for his 4th year of service, doesn't matter if it's a 1 year deal or not. I'm wondering if you've actually seen Bonderman's numbers. In his first 3 years of service he put up an 87 ERA+ and 1.40 WHIP and his 3rd year of service was decidedly mediocre. Danks has a career 115 ERA+ and 1.33 WHIP and is coming off 2 outstanding seasons, I'm not seeing the comparison. Hell given that Danks vastly outperformed Bonderman over the first 3 years of their careers and we have 4 years of inflation to account for that $3.4M number is looking awfully good.

QUOTE (Socal Cid @ Oct 14, 2009 -> 02:18 PM) Looking at past comparables (Bonderman '05 and Harang '05) it looks as if Danks arbitration number should be somewhere between $2m and 2.3m next year. That was half a decade ago and Danks is significantly better than Bonderman, take a look at Jon Lester's deal, that's what Danks' agent will be doing. Same service time, similar production at a younger age (24 compared to 25). Thanks to the deal he signed in the offseason Lester will make $3.75M next year, Danks should be looking for ~$3.4M or so.

QUOTE (knightni @ Oct 13, 2009 -> 02:22 PM) Cutler would definitely tell TO what he thinks. What would you trade to Buffalo? The Bears don't have many high picks left. Bennett, Iglacias, and a 2nd rounder? The Bills will be lucky to get anything better than a single 4th round pick.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 13, 2009 -> 01:25 PM) T.O. trade to Chicago rumor is apparently circulating per one of the fantasy message boards I visit. This morning Adam Schefter speculated the Bears could look into acquiring him if the Bills make him available, anything you've seen since is likely the product of over exuberant internet people blowing idle speculation WAY out of proportion.

It's REAL hard to advance in the playoffs when the back end of your bullpen is this bad.

QUOTE (Tmar @ Oct 10, 2009 -> 10:03 AM) I need the best/most fun game to play on NES, SNES, or N64, what are they Golden Eye and Perfect Dark.

QUOTE (MexSoxFan#1 @ Oct 12, 2009 -> 07:59 PM) The Utley should've gone to first for the sure out...Rockies need to cash in on that error. He had a sure out at 2B, Jimmy Rollins has to catch that ball.

Not only was Chase Utley 23/23 in stolen bases this year but also he was not picked off once. He and Luis Castillo are the only players with 20+ SB this past year that can claim such a feat, though Castillo was caught stealing 6 times.

QUOTE (Springfield SoxFan @ Oct 12, 2009 -> 06:58 PM) Chicago White Sox Signed: RHP Jacob Marceaux (re-signed), LHP Wander Perez (re-signed) Granted free agency: 1B Wilson Betemit Recalled: RHP Lucas Harrell, RHP Jon Link, RHP Jeff Marquez, RHP Clevelan Santeliz, C Cole Armstrong, 3B Dayan Viciedo Outrighted to Triple-A and removed from 40-man: OF Dewayne Wise I posted this in multiple forums not sure which is most appropriate, but does this means that Harrell, Link and others are not Rule V eligible, and I am wondering what the reasoning is for moving Viciedo to the 40 man. Those 6 players were already on the 40 man roster (so they're all rule V ineligible) including Viciedo who signed a major league deal so he was placed on the 40 when he signed. They're the only 6 players on the 40 man roster that weren't in the majors at the end of the season, such players are "recalled" by each team once the season ends or outrighted to the minors and removed from the 40 man roster.

QUOTE (joeynach @ Oct 12, 2009 -> 02:08 PM) I have preliminary numbers that show the sox at $75 Mil right now. That number does not include arbitration raises to Danks, Jenks, Carrasco, Pena, Betemit (if not non-tendered), and Quentin. It also does not include anything for Pods who could be resigned soon. So what does that $75M include? If it's just the 11 players under contract for next year then I'm curious as to how you arrived at that number. Buehrle, Floyd, Garcia, Konerko, Linebrink, Peavy, Pierzynski, Ramirez, Rios, Thornton, Viciedo = $70.3M Danks, Jenks, Carrasco, Pena, Quentin = ~$15M - $16M 16 players = ~$85M - $86M Then there's the extra million to buyout Dye's contract.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 11, 2009 -> 05:22 PM) Look at the numbers. Another 24 AB, Dye might hit 2 homers and would have more homers and RBI than Swisher and a higher average. Swisher was below average defensively as well. I can definitely say Swisher's 2009 performance is not worth 17 million more than JD's performance and I am really no fan of JD. They also had Swisher's value in 2008 over $5 million higher than Dye's in 2009. Check those numbers. Dye outdid him in hr, ribi, avg, obp and slug. pct. They obviously have a hard on for Swisher and walks must be the most important stat. Yes, the computer has a hard on for Swisher. When you're 18.7 runs below replacement defensively you're not going to be worth s*** unless you're absolutely raking. Swisher came in at 0.1 runs below replacement which is average. They use weighted on base average to determine a hitter's park adjusted runs above average, if you want to know how the number is calculated then you can read about it here.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 11, 2009 -> 05:12 PM) The difference is not $17 million worth of production. If it is, most players in the major leagues are vastly underpaid. Swisher made a few more plate appearances. I really doubt 33 walks, 5 walks a month is worth anywhere near $17 million. You're ignoring DEFENSE and a .045 point difference in slugging. And that's before weighting everything out.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 11, 2009 -> 05:12 PM) The difference is not $17 million worth of production. If it is, most players in the major leagues are vastly underpaid. You can't just say that off the top of your head. Dye was the worst defender at his position and posted below average offensive production, there's no value in that. If you're going to be horrible at one facet of the game then you need to be above average at another, unfortunately Jermaine was not.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 11, 2009 -> 10:17 AM) To put things in perspective while you are making arrangements for Nick Swisher's enshrinement into the HOF, he basically had the same offensive year as Jermaine Dye, except with a few more walks and a few more strikeouts, check the numbers, yet fangraphs has Swisher's production worth $16.5 million and Dye's worth -(yes that's negative) 600k. Could you say with a straight face their production is over $17 million worth of value apart? 498 AB 29 HR 82 RBI 97 BB 126 K .249 AVG .371 OBP .869 OPS 503 AB 27 HR 81 RBI 64 BB 108 K .250 AVG .340 OBP .826 OPS I don't see $17 million in difference. Obviously, Swisher's is slightly better, but fangraphs obviously has a major flaw in how the value players. If Dye had 20 more walks their numbers would basically be identical. Dye put up a .793 OPS this year, .826 is his career OPS. So there's a 76 point difference in OPS, that's f***ing huge. Just look at their OPS+'s, Swisher: 126 (well above average) and Dye: 102 (just about average). Jermaine put up a below average OPS for an AL right fielder (.793 compared to .803) and that's while playing half his games at the cell. So Dye put up average to below average offensive production for his position and was the worst defensive outfielder in the AL according to UZR where as Swisher was a well above average hitter and an average defender, that's where your tremendous difference in value comes from. They actually take into account defense. You also can not downplay the value of 33 extra walks over the course of a season, there's huge value in that. You're unintentionally highlighting the inherent flaw in using straight OPS to compare 2 players. OPS treats OBP and SLG as equals when they're anything but, OBP needs to be weighted more heavily.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 10, 2009 -> 03:34 PM) At some point next season, AJP and Buerhle become 5/10 men. If the Sox re-up with Dye, something nobody mentions, he will have full no trade rights. That's another reason to color him gone. Pierzynski: June 24th Buehrle: July 16th

QUOTE (knightni @ Oct 10, 2009 -> 05:10 PM) He had similar stats and hitting results (low average, power potential). Much different times in their careers and much different circumstances behind the low output, they're also very different kinds of hitters. Ankiel's potential is no where near that of Quentin.

QUOTE (knightni @ Oct 10, 2009 -> 05:06 PM) Oh, a free agent. He sucks as much as Quentin did pre-2008. He's also 30 and an outed HGH user. Your comparison to Quentin is a confusing one.

QUOTE (knightni @ Oct 10, 2009 -> 04:54 PM) Jenks to StL for Ankiel? Ankiel is lefty power who has a monster arm and can play all fields. He's "under the radar" because he had a poor 2009. Thoughts? He's also a free agent, a Boras client and he sucks.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 9, 2009 -> 09:37 PM) I agree he should be gone. I would say for a guy considered a total liability, he's been a decent member of the White Sox. I don't understand why so many people hate a No. 25 roster guy; or care about him that much. I am tempted to point out the names of some guys who deserve a lot of criticism for their play this year, but seem to get a free pass by many. Wise at least did his job reasonably well; he was a decent No. 25 man; outfield sub, sub with speed. Oh wait ... the guys that failed have track records. Wise has none. And on it goes. I don't know why you say Wise isn't fast. Especially on our team he looked like Edwin Moses in his prime compared to most of our plodders. Another reason he was good to have around. Just because he's faster than Konerko doesn't mean he has great speed. That's awful logic. You have to stop comparing things that are not comparable, you end up jumping to false conclusions. Were you watching the Yankees game? Did you see Brett Gardner run? Have you seen a scrub like Joey Gathright? Wise can't compare to that.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 9, 2009 -> 09:27 PM) Why? His speed. He can pinch run, steal a base. Add some speed to a slow team. Let's say Paulie gets a hit in a tie game in the ninth and we want Wise in to run. Wise can run. His defense. He can come in the latter innings and help in that regard. Let's say somebody is trying for a perfect game. He can come in and sub for Pods in the ninth and maybe save that perfect game. Or if we lead by one in the ninth. I do not want him back; I'm just saying he's not worthless. The fans' hatred of him alone is a good enough reason to not bring him back. We don't need the distractions. Fans booed him; let him go. Dewayne Wise is not a particularly good base stealer, he's just not all that fast. He's not that incredible threat that waits at the end of most benches. No one fears Dewayne Wise's legs.

QUOTE (TLAK @ Oct 9, 2009 -> 07:59 PM) Jenks got 29 saves for a team that only won 79 games. He had 35 opportunities. Where would the White Sox ended up without him? Thornton was 4 of 9, everybody else 3 of 10. Do the math. Is entering with a couple guys on in the 6th and relinquishing the lead really a blown save? Because it goes down as one. You can not compare the save statistics of a setup man to those of a full time closer, they're dealing with entirely different situations. Matt Thornton had the 6th highest WPA of any reliever in baseball this season, the only 5 relievers that increased their team's chances of winning more than Matt: Papelbon, Rivera, Nathan, Soria and Street. He's the reason Bobby even had an opportunity to close out those 35 games. Trevor Hoffman saved 37 games out of 41 opportunities for an 80 win team. Heath Bell? 42 of 48 for a 75 win team. Francisco Cordero? 39 of 43 for a 78 win team. K-Rod? 35 of 41 (the Castillo dropped popup does not count) for a 70 win team. Soria? 30 of 33 for a 65 win team. Matt Capps? 27 of 32 for a 62 win team.

Here's where we stand right now.

Alex Rios has a notoriously active night life, it's the kind of thing they ignore in a small market like Toronto but is magnified in a place like Chicago. People will look the other way when you're putting up an .800 OPS and hitting the clubs after the game, the same can't be said when you're doing practically nothing at the plate.

Just keep in mind what the 33 year old Dave Roberts got after his decent season in Boston that culminated with the huge SB in the World Series. I know it was a different time, different market and different economy but the Giants threw 3 years, $18M at him.