Kalapse

QUOTE(AddisonStSox @ May 15, 2007 -> 03:17 PM) Thanks, Kalapse, I knew you would come through. I think you are spot-on with the Buehrle assessment and I know you are spot-on with all the current players, so I bet you are correct within a couple million dollars in either direction. Some areas that may deflate the projection: -Will Iguchi receive $4M on the open-market given his current pace? Probably not. However, he may receive $4M and Williams may very well give it to him considering the contract will be for less than three years and there appears to be at least one viable middle-infield prospect in Getz a season or two away. -How about Ichiro for $15M per? Perhaps. His 2007 statistics may not merit $15M per season, but considering his skill-set and the needs of the White Sox, this is one player I could see Williams overpaying for. -Having both Sweeney and Fields in the lineup looks like a necessity to me; and plugging in one or two farm-grown position-players every other year seems like a requirement for being considered a competitive and financially-sound organization on a year-to-year basis. It all works if both Sweeney and Fields are up and producing; otherwise, this is not the route to go and you can tear this projection to threads. Well done, Kalapse. The $4M figure is probably pretty damn close. Even if he has a poor year he's not going to be this bad. At the least I could see him pulling in $3M and that's if he's .260/.320/.400 which is about the worst worst case scenario for him this season IMO. Given Ichiro's name recognition, reputation, global and general commercial appeal as well as his past, present and projected future production I see Ichiro pulling in $14M-$16M a year after this season. He's going to put up atleast .310/.360/.420/.780 this season and probably better no matter how much he's struggling right now. I doubt he gets any less than $56M even being 33 years old.

C-Pierzynski - $5.5M C-Toby Hall - $1.75M 1B-Paul Konerko - $12M DH/1B-Jim Thome - ~$7M 2B-Tadahito Iguchi - $4M SS-Juan Uribe - $5M SS/2B-Alex Cintron - $2M 3B-Josh Fields - $400K 3B-Pablo Ozuna - $1.05M LF-Ryan Sweeney - $400K CF-Darin Erstad - $6M RF-Ichiro Suzuki - $15M OF/Utl- $500K OF/Utl- $500K ------- ~$61.1M ------- SP-Mark Buehlre - $15M SP-Jose Contreras - $10M SP-Javier Vazquez - $11.5M SP-John Danks - $400K SP-Open Competition - $400K ------- ~37.3M ------- CP-Bobby Jenks - $400K RP-Mike MacDougal - $1.95M RP-Matt Thornton - $875K RP-Matt Sisco - $400K RP-David Aardsma - $400K RP-Nick Masset - $400K ------- ~$4.425M ------- TOTAL = 102.835M 2007 = $96.4M

QUOTE(RME JICO @ May 15, 2007 -> 12:47 PM) There are normally one or two pitchers per team that bat over .200. Zambrano is batting .250, Livan is batting .278, Lohse .308, etc, etc. Take it this way, how many teams have a pitcher with an OBP greater than .200? now how many AL teams have a starting position player with an OBP lower than .250? This is for an entire season mind you. Just picking a team at random from 2006 the Dodgers had one pitcher with a OBP >.200 and that was Aaron Sele at .222 the rest were in the low to mid .100s. The Braves had John Thomson at .267 the next highest was Smoltz at .176 and they had 2 others below .060.

QUOTE(Texsox @ May 15, 2007 -> 12:44 PM) Obviously the pitcher comes out and is replaced by a DH. But is taking that entire gain valid? For example, if Frank Thomas had been drafted and played in the NL. He would have been forced to play the field. He'd be a positional player. Which means that NL team would have no place for a guy like Paul Konerko and would be forced to chose between the two such as with the Phillies a year ago picking Howard over Thome. If they were an AL team they could have stuck Howard at first and just DH'd Jim but they were forced to trade away a 1.000 OPS because they have no room for him.

QUOTE(Texsox @ May 15, 2007 -> 12:32 PM) Have you peeked at the bottom of our order? One mitigating factor is the bottom of the NL order forces small ball. Sac bunts, etc. Would it be more statistically valid to compare a DH to a pitcher or a #9 to a pitcher? A #9 in the AL is the #8 in the NL and I'm sure even the numbers would show that. Your worst hitter is your worst hitter only difference being there's usually 1 guy who's even more pathetic than your worst offensive player when you are an NL team. Even the worst hitting starting position players in the American league are still going to hit over .200 in a lot of cases you're not even getting a .100 batting average from your starting pitcher.

QUOTE(BigSqwert @ May 15, 2007 -> 12:16 PM) Is there a way to compare both leagues' 1-8 hitters to make a more accurate comparison? If so, I would be surprised to see a big disparity in offensive numbers. That's tough to do since those 1-8 in the National League get to face NL pitching and the hitters in the AL get to face American League pitching the numbers aren't really the best way to compare potency. Since the two leagues only play eachother for a few series each year it's tough to get a real idea of the offensive/pitching capabilities of both leagues. The one thing you can look at is the one guaranteed automatic out you have when pitching to an NL lineup, a luxury you don't get in the AL.

That whole DH thing tends to skew offensive production. It's just easier to face 8 hitters in the NL than it is to face 9 in the AL. Ask Ted Lilly about that one.

QUOTE(Tony82087 @ May 14, 2007 -> 11:01 PM) I think Crede would have to go as well, and as of right now, it wouldn't be a huge loss. That 4.9 off the books would be nice. (Who knows what Joe will get next year in Arb) Yes but I'm thinking that is pretty much a given, I don't see how Joe Crede plays for the White Sox beyond the 2007 season.

QUOTE(caulfield12 @ May 14, 2007 -> 10:56 PM) The White Sox can buy out his contract for $1.25 million, regardless of the number of plate appearances he makes. I'm not sure how we can afford to keep Buehrle and add anyone of significance....such as Jones, Hunter or Ichiro. If JR is willing to top the $110M mark or deal Contreras Ichiro + Buehrle is doable.

QUOTE(BearSox @ May 14, 2007 -> 10:36 PM) I forgot about Rowand... yeah, he will likely be heading back to the south side next season. This is probably just another contract year season to, and when he gets a pretty good sized contract from us, he will revert back to his usual self. Rowand started off last year in a similar fashion. He had an .871 OPS, 6 HR and 17 RBI this time last May.

QUOTE(briguy27 @ May 14, 2007 -> 10:35 PM) torii hunter...losing a step? no. 6 straight gold gloves and that play he made vs us on uribe with the bases loaded speaks for itself as for ichiro, i wouldnt say hes 10x the offensive player torii hunter is. maybe was, but is, no. torii hunter is rollin this year offensively, with 8 homers and 29 rbis and a 325 batting average, and even swiping 7 bases. i dont know, maybe i would take ichiro, but torii is a close 2nd Yeah because he's earned those last few gold gloves right? At a certain point you stop winning awards based on merit and you begin winning them on reputation, Torii has reached that point. He plays deeper in CF than any other player you're ever going to see so those plays he doesn't get to in front of him you don't bat an eye, it looks like a normal basehit to shallow center but most centerfielders are getting to those since they play at average depth. But while he's not getting to the sit in front of him, his deep setup in CF is allowing him to get to those shots that are hit over most heads, those make him look spectacular. It's no secret that he's nowhere near the same defensive player that he used to be, he's still above average but that hard Metrodome turf has taken away a few steps that won't be coming back. He's played 35 games this year, get back to me in September when he's back around a .820 OPS. He's the ultimate streak hitter and it's why he's going to make so much more money than he's worth this offseason. If I were to believe all the stats I see right now, then JJ Hardy and Aaron Rowand must be 2 of the better players in baseball.

Podsednik isn't even allowed to run right now, he really shouldn't be entering into any equation at this point.

QUOTE(briguy27 @ May 14, 2007 -> 10:26 PM) well to save some money, we could get rid of iguchi and put ozuna there, and also get rid of cintron. he is horse-$*** and i said maybe both hunter and ichiro. obviously both would be awesome, but prolly wont happen. ill take either one at this point The thing about Hunter and Ichiro is the money won't be too far off for both and Ichiro is 10X the player Hunter ever has or ever will be and fits this team perfectly. Torii is a slightly above average offensive player who's body is falling apart, he's already lost a few steps in CF anymore and he's going to be Griffey out there. No way is he worth $10M+ over 4 years, I'd rather go after *gulp* Rowand.

QUOTE(briguy27 @ May 14, 2007 -> 09:51 PM) yea except ichiro is like a whole new dimension. i know as of now he's only batting around 275 or so, but u know he will heat up, and end at 330ish then maybe we can get him for like 3 years or 4 years, and a contract around 35 mill, and then try to get torii hunter for whatever left over money we have so lets say we get ichiro and torii and resign buehrle. heres the order RF ichiro 2B iguchi DH thome 1B konerko CF torii hunter C pierzynski SS uribe LF sweeney 3B fields Contreras, Garland, MacDougal, Thornton, Vazquez, Hall, Pierz, Konerko, Ozuna, Thome = $70.625 Guaranteed. Uribe = $5M Cintron = $2M Mack = $3.25 ----- $10.25M in options/arb ----- $80.875M Ichiro = $14M Iguchi = $4M Buehrle = $15M Hunter = $12M ----- $45M in Free Agent signings ----- $125.875M before youngsters ----- others = $2.66M ----- $128.535M Total There isn't enough money.

QUOTE(Melissa1334 @ May 14, 2007 -> 09:41 PM) i agree(although i dont think, even with the year hes having, that erstad will get 6 mill) what i dont like is that, with the exception of ichiro, its the same old lineup It doesn't really matter what you think he's worth, if you want to keep Erstad around past this season he's going to cost you either $3.5M or $6M depending on whether he has 600 PA this year or not that is what his contract stipulates. I really think he'll make it to 600 PA, that one big injury just doesn't seem like it's coming and you know Ozzie will leave him at the top of the lineup no matter how incompetent he is come September.

QUOTE(briguy27 @ May 14, 2007 -> 09:18 PM) how about this for a batting order for 2008 CF ichiro LF erstad DH thome 1B konerko RF dye C pierzynski 2B iguchi SS uribe 3B fields I want no part of Darin Erstad for $6M or Jermaine for the ~$10M he's going to get. That's a $30M+ outfield right there.

Torii Hunter is going to kill some team this offseason. He's going to get a 4-5 year contract along with $10M+ a year and he'll be an average deteriorating player over the course of the deal. KW is not dumb enough to throw that much money at an aging defender and average offensive player.

QUOTE(forrestg @ May 14, 2007 -> 07:05 PM) I like I Iguchi he is kind of streaky but if we talk about Iguchi replacements lets talk about replacing Crede, Konerko, Dye, Makoviac and Cintron. Each is hitting less than Tadahito....... None of our hitters have a clue.. I wonder if the coaching staff particularly the hitting coach has a part in this dilemna... Konerko is under contract for a few more years and will not be traded any time soon so it wouldn't make much sense to talk about replacing him. There is a good chance Mackowiak, Cintron and Crede all get replaced this offseason mainly due to financial constraints. Dye is a free agent and will probably be replaced by Sweeney, so there's your replacement for Dye. The outfield is kind of a clusterf*** for the future, no one really knows who will be out there come next season. Could be Sweeney, Erstad, Dye or it could be FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT, SWEENEY. So that discussion wouldn't last long. Iguchi is a free agent after this season, will be getting a chance to test free agency, will be 33 next year and has been absolutely horrid this season. There's a pretty damn good chance Iguchi gets replaced this offseason, I really don't see how a discussion that we had on the board just 2 months ago is suddenly taboo now that we're 1.5 months in and the player in question is playing like s***.

QUOTE(santo=dorf @ May 14, 2007 -> 06:32 PM) You can't look at Castillo's career numbers at this point. It's just like looking at Grinderstad's. He only stole 10 bases in 2005 (with 7 CS,) so he not quite a lock for 20 SB's. People said the same thing about Grinderstad. He's not a bad option for second base next year, but I'm not going to make him priority #1, throw the world at him, or give him a 3 year contract. Give gooch time. 2005 was more of an anomaly than anything else, he had some nagging injuries that year that slowed him down, he missed more games that year (40) than he did any other year of his career. 2005 was the only year since '99 that he didn't steal 20 bags. He swiped 25 in an injury free season last year so I fail to see why one year with some nagging injuries means he's not good for something he's done every other year outside the one. I just don't see where the turf becomes a problem, he's put up the same consistent numbers for most of his career while not playing on turf. Now that he's playing all of his home games on carpet he's putting up similar numbers to what he did at Pro Player, there's just no correlation between turf and success that I'm seeing.

Well Castillo has a career .296/.372/.357/.729 line on grass which is actually better than his numbers on turf. Just looking at his numbers I don't see that big of an effect from turf .296/.387/.368/.755 on grass in '05 before leaving Florida. He's had a .700+ OPS each of the last 5 seasons. .300/.355/.375 is perfectly acceptable from a 2B especially one who's going to steal about 20 bases a season with pretty solid defense. When you're getting that from the corner outfielder is when it becomes a problem.

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ May 14, 2007 -> 06:07 PM) Statistically speaking, Kent would be great, although I've heard or read cases of him being a real ass where-ever he goes. I don't think Kent is the sort of player KW and Ozzie would look to bring in, by all indications he's a complete asshole and not in the AJ Pierzynski sense. Kent just sort of hates everyone. I doubt he hits free agency anyway all he needs is 400 more PA this year and his $9M team option for next season becomes guaranteed.

QUOTE(Melissa1334 @ May 14, 2007 -> 06:05 PM) i would love to have him too but isnt he somewhat injury prone? He's had 600+ PA in 6 of the last 7 seasons. Even if he does tend to get banged up he still produces at a high level and doesn't miss games. So it's not a big concern to me.

The most realistic move could be KW signing another grinder in David Eckstein and sticking him at 2B.

Marcus Giles has a $4M team option for next year that will almost certainly be picked up. Kent also has a $7M team option which vests at $9M with 550 PA this season so I doubt either of them hit free agency. Luis Castillo would be a fantastic pickup though. He's an excellent hitter who could thrive in the 2 hole with his consistently high OBP and ~20 stolen bases.

http://www.snopes.com/business/bank/pinalert.asp s*** out of luck if your pin is 2442