Kalapse

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 01:53 AM) You'll see me still b**** about Carlos Pena though. I can't appreciate the pure power if you don't hit at least a respectable average though, haha. I also think there is a place in the roster for these guys, however, if you had 9 players like Dunn/Reynolds/Pena (and I don't really want to put Dunn in that class cause offensively he's far more productive than the other two) that you'd have hard time winning despite the fact that your optimized lineups would churn out pretty ridiculous offensive runs per game numbers. I say that because I still see a lot of value in a hitters ability to hit against good pitchers and I think when you hit .200 you are more likely going to have a harder time getting a hit against an upper echelon pitcher or a good set-up guy/closer. And I think you are most likely to be in those sitautions in the post-season (when teams have 3 to 4 man rotations and in general the teams have far better pitchers) or in late/close game situations (when teams are using their premium relievers). But Dunn is definitely a great fit. I also have a hard time using some of the defensie metrics. I think they can provide decent value in large sample sizes and for certain positions but I still have issues with them and still have more trust in what a scout who covers a player or coach that watches a player every day thinks. I also feel that catchers are probably the hardest overall defensive position to judge. I say that because there are so many intangibles that go with calling a game and to me you can't just go by the pure differential in ERA between catcher A and B. Kalapse: I also completely agree with you on Paulie and I very much appreciate the little things he does (such as the throw to 2nd to turn the DP or just get the force out) and the marvelous job he does digging balls out. It's scary but I largely agree with you; just this past season I was preaching the value of the old standby: batting average. You have people who act as if it means nothing at all but at least in my opinion there's a tremendous amount of value in picking up a hit once every three and a third at bats.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 01:44 AM) It's funny that you're moving toward the advanced metrics after fighting them for so long while I find myself moving further away from them (at least for the defensive metrics) after lauding the damn things. It is nice to see you appreciating the awesomeness that is Adam Dunn, though. After you rebelling against the Thome/Dunn type players for so long. Just to elaborate on this a bit so no one gets the wrong idea; I still very much like the defensive metrics but I just see so many people using UZR for evil rather than good that it's really starting to upset me. For so long people like Dewan and Lichtman and others of this ilk have warned us that a single season's worth of data is not enough to form any solid conclusions, that we need a few season's worth of UZR to determine a player's ultimate worth yet I see people throwing around a single down or up season in the UZR column as definitive proof that a player is great/horrible defensively. There's such wild fluctuations in the data that a sane person can't possibly take a single season at face value and yet I'm seeing people 3 months into the season looking at this data and talking about how horribly a player has fallen off or picked up his game and this upsets me; it's starting to feel like split stats where someone looks at a player's numbers with RISP in 2010 and decides that he's either clutch or not clutch (god I hate that word). How does someone like Nick Markakis take such a precipitous drop from '08 to date? It makes no sense. These numbers are so damn valuable but at the same time so easy to exploit that it becomes horribly upsetting.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 01:46 AM) I really wish you and qwerty would stop hibernating for weeks at a time (months in qwerty's case). And my brother Ace hasn't been around as much either. I tend to take a nice long break from baseball once the season starts wrapping up, I find it cathartic and the withdraw gets me jonesing for a new baseball season.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 01:39 AM) Everyone's starting to notice that I've began using some of these fancy stats. Well, as long as they back my own eye test (if I've watched a decent amount of a player or enough of a player to have an opinion). They are clearly valuable tools of information. In no way am I on the same level as you or qwerty when it comes to the whole barrage of things, but I am pretty comfortable with a few of these fancy stats, haha. It's funny that you're moving toward the advanced metrics after fighting them for so long while I find myself moving further away from them (at least for the defensive metrics) after lauding the damn things. It is nice to see you appreciating the awesomeness that is Adam Dunn, though. After you rebelling against the Thome/Dunn type players for so long.

QUOTE (3E8 @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 01:11 AM) You're not alone. The defensive WAR component does not include 1B picks. A guy like PK is closer to average 1B defensively overall because his terrific hands make up for his lack of range. So PK's WAR from defense isn't just. But we don't need a stat to confirm that Dunn is abominable in the outfield (where Ozzie said he will play) and near the bottom at 1B too. Not only his picks but his arm. Konerko is probably the best 1B I've ever seen at turning the 3-6-3/3-6-1 double play, it's incredible how many first basemen can't make the throw to second base but Konerko turns it flawlessly just about every time, it's the kind of thing you really tend to appreciate when you watch a lot of baseball. When looking at Konerko's UZR it just means so little to me, we all know he's not a very good athlete and is slow as s*** so he probably doesn't have great range but in the grand scheme of things there aren't a lot of balls hit into the first basemen's zone anyway, in a given year you can have 40% less balls hit to the 1B than the 3B based on the incredible difference in handedness of pitchers and hitters and then you have the added factor of a first basemen's placement (holding a runner on, playing back and such) it just means so very little. And even then; sure Konerko was around a -14 last year but for his career he's very rarely wondered too far from zero and we've always been warned against placing too much value in a single seasons' UZR, there's so much fluctuation in the numbers you need a few season's worth of data to draw any conclusions. Basically: I find it difficult to knock Konerko's defense when I'm so damn impressed watching him play the field compared to a lot of the 1B I see out there -- and I do watch a ton of baseball -- when one season's worth of a flawed metric is telling me he sucks.

Holy crap, we have Jason referencing WAR, what in the hell is going on?

QUOTE (bobryansson @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 12:19 AM) Assuming he actually played all 9 innings of all 162 games, he gets $24,348.42 per inning. To play baseball. It amounts to $55,000 per day, 365 days per year for 7 years. And he's not the highest paid. I love baseball, and this is America with "free enterprise," but... Seems like priorities are misaligned. That's what happens when you're one of the very best in a multi-billion dollar industry.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 06:37 PM) Moreover, he will not be a free agent until after the 2012 season. His MLB service time is still only 4.07 years. We can offer arbitration at the end of the year. He could be a big part of the rotation for the next two seasons. His service time is actually 5.070, he'll be a free agent at season's end.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 05:19 PM) The only 3 slow players within the Sox lineup are Dunn, Konerko, and Pierzynski, and Dunn isn't as slow as you think. Quentin isn't as fast as he used to be due to the number of injuries he has accumulated, but he can run a little bit still. This isn't the White Sox lineup from 2006 that had Konerko, Thome, Dye, Crede, and Pierzynski in it. And those guys play C, 1B and DH. How in the hell do you put together a good offense on a limited budget without having slow guys at those positions? We could remove Pierre from this lineup and replace him with a player of average speed and we'd still have on the whole above average speed. You put together a team of 9 fast guys and watch them score 675 runs. s*** this offense on average is quicker than the '05 World Series team and probably a much more potent lineup. And that team full of plodders from '06 was an awesome lineup, top 3 offense in the AL.

Mark Buehrle 14.000 Ramon Castro 1.200 John Danks ARB Adam Dunn 12.000 Gavin Floyd 5.000 Edwin Jackson 8.350 Paul Konerko 12.000 Jake Peavy 16.000 Tony Pena ARB Juan Pierre 8.500 AJ Pierzynski 2.000 Carlos Quentin ARB Alexei Ramirez 2.750 Alex Rios 12.000 Mark Teahen 4.750 Matt Thornton 3.000 Dayan Viciedo 1.250 Omar Vizquel 1.750 Subtotal 104.550 Linebrink 3.5 Pierre -3.5 Payroll 104.55

Freddy's contract ran out and became a free agent, when we acquired Jackson he was still under contract for $8.35M in 2011.

I somehow doubt the Yankees will be trading Brett Gardner regardless of what happens with Crawford. From everything I've read Granderson and Swisher would be out the door before Gardner. At the beginning of the offseason there was a lot of talk about both Curtis and Nick being available.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 12:48 PM) God I'm so sick of this crap. I get it's a factor when talking pitchers. But it means absolutely nothing for hitters. Why aren't these people more worried about Dunn's transition? I haven't heard word one about his switching leagues.

QUOTE (bschmaranz @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 11:48 AM) People keep mentioning CQ as a trade option and while I wouldn't be upset or anything if we moved him, exactly who plays in right if we move him? Filling a hole by creating another. One would argue that RF currently is a hole based on Quentin's brutal defense, inconsistent offensive production and frequent injuries. Hell you have to go into the season with a plan B in mind for RF when Quentin inevitably goes down. (Teahen, I suppose)

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 10:38 AM) I know this won't be a popular opinion here, but, last year was his first full year in RF, correct? Its possible he actually gets better. Just sayin'. He may also get traded. I'm thinking Kenny is going to get creative with the bullpen and RF somehow, with Quentin and Viciedo heading out the door somewhere in one or two trades. First full season of his big league career, first season playing full time RF since 2007 and he played nothing but from that year on back, he just took at 2 year break with the White Sox. I think it's a tremendous loss of athleticism due to injury that's killing his defense more than anything.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 11:39 AM) God I hope we can trade Floyd and Viciedo for some relievers so Sale won't be wasted in the bullpen. You don't trade a very good, young starting pitcher for bullpen arms, that's terrible value. You go scrapheap with vets that have had past success or youngsters with great stuff. Bullpen arms are so insanely inconsistent year to year that they're very rarely worth multi-year deals or big dollar amounts and you never trade good, young talent for them. You could maybe make a concession for a great closer but even that's scary.

$104.55M payroll right now, still have the 3 arb guys to sign. The deal isn't bad or great in my mind, it just kind of is. The differed money makes the 3rd year far more palatable. Eh, it's really annoying when money is being thrown around based on past performance and sentimental value as opposed to future value. Konerko only came close to earning his previous $12M per deal in the final year of the deal went he turned in the best year of his career, I don't think this bodes well for his age 35-37 seasons when he'll be earning even more.

QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Dec 7, 2010 -> 10:39 PM) Cowley: Earlier in the day, there were reports that the Sox had former Cubs hurler Kerry Wood on the radar for a bullpen spot. A source said Wood was "too expensive,'' however, but that was said with most in the organization feeling Konerko was all but a done deal and would return for a 13th season. Now, everyone with "free agent'' next to their name was back in play for not only the bullpen, but first base. That included Derrek Lee, which was reported on Monday. "Moving forward this may afford us the ability to do a couple of other things along with filling the position,'' Williams said. "So the assumption that we will end this or will ultimately be worse for it is incorrect. I think we still have a chance to put a real good player in the position and do some other things.'' Elsewhere in this, Wed afternoon is mentioned as a deadline. And Kenny Williams gives the #1 reason why so many of us have now turned out attention to the less expensive Derrek Lee. It makes even more sense now that he's all but confirmed that allotted Konerko money could be split between several players if he is not re-signed.

QUOTE (buhbuhburrrrlz @ Dec 7, 2010 -> 05:17 PM) “Unfortunately I was very hopeful coming down here,” said Sox general manager Kenny Williams. “I was hoping it wouldn’t really come down to us getting serious about other options, but at this time I have no other choice.” Really disappointing news, Sox were having a great offseason. I really hope other options don't include D. Lee. I watched him struggle enough on the north side to last me a lifetime. Derrek Lee Joined the Cubs in 2004 and hit .298/.378/.524/.903 with a 129 OPS+ in a Cubs uniform Paul Konerko over that same time frame hit .281/.366/.520/.886 with a 127 OPS+

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Dec 7, 2010 -> 05:27 PM) in the last two years PK has more than twice the number of plate appearances. Who cares about early in their careers? DLee is injury prone, PK is not ???? Konerko has 11 more PA than Lee over the past 2 seasons. 1252 to 1241

Since a Dunn/Konerko comparison has now been made; over the past 4 seasons: .257/.382/.533/.915, 39 HR per season, 31 years old .273/.361/.504/.865, 30 HR per season, 35 years old

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Dec 7, 2010 -> 05:02 PM) Rangers are shopping Michael Young around to save money for Lee. Isn't he someone Kenny has been linked with in the past? $48M over the next 3 years.

Derrek Lee, 2 picks and maybe a little extra cash is looking better and better by the minute when I think about it. He and Konerko are just such incredibly similar players that -- assuming injuries are not a factor, huge assumption, I know -- it's kind of a toss up as to who will put up the better numbers next season. Just looking at Bill James' usual optimistic projections for next season, which truly mean next to nothing at face value but does succeed in emphasizing the similarity: .273/.361/.496 wOBA: .372 .278/.365/.475 wOBA: .367 If our doctors like the looks of Lee's wrist this does look like the best course of action.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Dec 7, 2010 -> 04:28 PM) Maybe it's my old age but I cannot even recall our previous first baseman before Paulie took over. Was it Frank or was there someone in between? Wil Cordero

He's on the Score right now basically saying that half an hour ago KW was ready to announce the signing then something went horribly wrong and it's quite possibly 100% over, as in KW has already said goodbye. He says the sticking point is likely that Konerko wants that $15M a year to be a higher paid player than Dunn, KW expected this number to come down but it did not. This is probably for the best: $15M a year is a joke, I have a huge problem with paying a guy based on what he's done and not what he's going to do and that's what they'd be doing here with Konerko. There's no way in hell Konerko produces at a $15M a year level over the next 3 seasons. Cowley says D Lee's name is picking up steam and I say hell yeah.