BlackBetsy

Question, of the guys the Sox have....who do you think they would have to trade to pry Brandon Wood away from the Angels? Shortstop prospects like that are few and far between. The Angels have OC for another 3 years (at $24 million), and may be willing to part with him.

QUOTE(KeithFranklin @ Oct 15, 2005 -> 02:42 PM) Well I have watched this several times on a widescreen HDTV. First it is a judgement call if the ball hit the dirt. Second and most importantlyif you watch it Josh Paul throws the ball back to the mound and is completly off screen (ump is in the middle) before the ump makes the fist. JP is also already running towards first base when the ump makes the fist. The commentators are all wrong because the constantly claim that the ump makes the fist before the players leave thier positions. Fox never lets the facts get in the way of what they want to report.

QUOTE(Tony82087 @ Oct 14, 2005 -> 02:01 PM) And it should continue. I really dont see the Sox this year, like after opening day, having crowds up 11,000. I just cant see that. Win,and they will come. You mean, like this one? (That was after a 99-win Sox team went to the ALCS, and the Cubs were still 7th out of 12 in the NL in attendance. P.S. The Sox outdrew the Cubs 2-1 in 1981...look it up). I think that the early night games in April will simply tell us what the new Sox season ticket base is. Those April night games against Kansas City should really tell the story.

QUOTE(Frankensteiner @ Oct 14, 2005 -> 09:32 AM) Can we give this a rest? Carl has been our worst hitter in the playoffs (.211/.250/.211). I honestly wouldn't mind if Ozzie gave Timo a start. Not against Lackey. Crazy Carl has hit Lackey extremely well. Meanwhile, Timo is 1-7 off of Lackey.

QUOTE(Randar68 @ Oct 14, 2005 -> 11:35 AM) I think your expectations for Crede are a bit high at this point, but I could definitely see .270/.330/.500 Just for comparison, here are his 2004 splits... 2003 splits: It's not the high of the highs as much as the low of the lows... You need to find a way to mitigate the damage when you're scuffling... I see (1) good month in 2003, (2) good months in 2004, and (4) good months in 2005. That's improvement. I think if he can get to (5) good months in 2006, he puts up the aforementioned .280/.335/.500 line for the season, as long as the other month isn't him hitting like Jose Contreras.

QUOTE(Randar68 @ Oct 14, 2005 -> 10:28 AM) I've still not seen a logical expression of why Arizona would trade Chad Tracy. If they have a payroll of 85-93 million, they could resign Konerko and add 2 10-12 million dollar a year contracts in ADDITION simply by moving Marte, El Duque and whoever they replace with the 2 big contracts... Giles would easily hit 0 HR's at USCF, and I'd bet more along the lines of about 35 HR's per year for the first 2-3 years of a new deal. Again, not sure he'd leave the west coast... The Sox will likely be starting Joe Crede at 3rd base next year... can't deny that guy's clutch-ness... Agreed on every point, although the Crede thing is a bit frustrating. The good news with Crede is: April: .304/.368/.456 May: .155/.211/.286 June: .275/.333/.538 July: .304/.342/.551 Aug: .103/.148/.172 Sep: .379/.419/.759 He actually had FOUR good months this season, which is an improvement. His two awful months happened to be more awful than in years past - including that absurd, worse-than-Cristian-Guzman August. I'm actually of the opinion that he could put up a .290/.335/.500 season next year - it'll be his 28 year old season, and he's bound to peak somewhere. I just hope the Sox are not fooled by it and move on to the next 3B option when he's up for free agency (2008, I believe). I really hope that Fields shows improvement by then and can be a major league third basemen - I have serious doubts right now. Does anyone know where Kenny Williams lives? Can we put a whole bunch of subliminal messages around his house about signing Brian Giles? Like a road sign on his way home that says "Chicago, 7 Giles" or something? A likeness of Giles carved into the hedges across from his house?

QUOTE(witesoxfan @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 03:36 PM) And I don't want LeCroy. It's not that LeCroy's a bad hitter...it's just that all he does is hit lefties, and the last thing the Sox need is another bat that hits lefties very well and righties not well at all. Ding ding ding ding ding ding.... we have a winner. My guess is that LeCroy replaces Kevin Millar in Boston as the guy who hits against lefties and plays 1B. Seriously. I think Boston keeps Olerud as their guy who hits against righties (and as a defensive replacement). LeCroy is a guy that Theo Epstein would not be able to pass up on. In the alternative, I could see him platooning with Hatteberg in Oakland. LeCroy is a Moneyball player. When we talk about strengthening the White Sox in the offseason, I think we need to focus on left handed hitters. Not only are the Sox righty-heavy now, the best hitting prospects in the Sox organization - Anderson and Young - are righties. Sweeney is a few years away and needs to show that he can add some power. Brian Giles is going to be my mantra this offseason.

Everyone hates bandwagon fans right now, but, to be honest, the Sox need all the fans they can get. We all complain about how Chicago is a Cub town and the Sox do not get enough respect, etc., media coverage. There's one way to change that - Cub fan converts. Maybe they'll realize going to a park that doesn't smell like a urinal and has good food and ample parking isn't so terrible. And that rooting for a team that actually cares about winning might be more fun. Chicago, at one time, was a Sox town - especially when the Sox were good for 20 years in the 50's and 60's. You wouldn't believe it now, but it's true. The Sox drew nearly double what the Cubs drew in some years in the 50's and 60's.

QUOTE(BlackBetsy @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 05:34 PM) I think that even if the Sox get WS home playoff games, they won't get much more than $7-8 million, but that's just off the top of my head as I try to remember the 2001 Commissioner's Blue Ribbon Panel report. OK, not quite right. According to the 2001 data from MLB, the Yankees (WS losers) got $16 million from postseason revenue in 2001, while the Diamondbacks got $13 million. The other playoff clubs got much less. Here's the link; there is playoff revenue column. I think if the Sox go to the WS, it's $10 million in revenue for sure, if they lose the ALCS, think $6-$7 or so, a la Seattle 2001.

QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 04:13 PM) I am going to go out on a limb and say $85 million is the lowest that our 2006 payroll will be. With a 20% attendance increase, on top of a large ticket price increase, plus at least two playoff rounds, there is some cash to be spent. Don't doubt it for a minute. If we play one or two more LCS games at home, and make it to the World Series, we could realistically be looking at a $100 million payroll for 2006. I actually think that $85 million is the HIGHEST payroll we can expect. That said, I also think that $85 million is the most likely payroll. Teams earn less from the playoffs than people think, IIRC. There's no individual TV deal, no seperate radio deal, and a lot of ticket revenue belongs to the Commissioner's Office (this is where the players get their playoff shares). Food and parking and souveniers are nice, but they still have costs. I think that even if the Sox get WS home playoff games, they won't get much more than $7-8 million, but that's just off the top of my head as I try to remember the 2001 Commissioner's Blue Ribbon Panel report. The question is how the Sox actually SPEND that extra money. In 2001, they went after David Wells. It was a good pickup, but he was hurt, and the rest of the staff except for Buehrle collapsed. The needs for the 2005 team are more subtle, and $10 million could make a MUCH bigger improvement to the 2005 team than the 2001 spending did for the 2000 team.

I think Guillen screwed up by starting the wrong catcher, too. Widge had drilled Washburn earlier in the season. AJ looked crummy against Washburn in a couple of ABs. But AJ did the job at the end. (Of course, had AJ simply taken the pitch for ball 4 rather than swung at it, we'd all be talking about Crede's clutch hit and Buehrle's pitching instead).

QUOTE(Randar68 @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 01:35 PM) I also like the idea of having 5 REAL starting pitchers. McCarthy as the #4 and ??? as the number 5 looks a lot like the way we started 2004. Those 5 guys as starters get you 2 the playoffs. Unless you get a guy like Millwood or (god-forbid) Scott Elarton as a #5 starter, I'm still not terribly thrilled with that trade-off in order to get one hitter, especially when you consider the impact it would have if one starter went down with injury. We don't have anyone in the minor ready to assume any kind of starting role in 2006, maybe not even 2007, other than McCarthy. I was thinking El Duque as the 5th starter. I actually thought the Sox misused him a bit this year. I thought they should be using him as a kind of "Sunday Starter" a la Lyons in his late career - once a week on 6 days' rest. He'd be much more effective as a 25-game-a-year starter, spaced out evenly, than to ask him to throw 32 starts as a part of a 5 man rotation. The other 7 starts are made up for by off days. It also depends on the hitter you get. I wouldn't trade Garland unless I could get a real good LH power hitter. I was thinking Overbay, who is in his prime and I think his 34 doubles and 19 homers turn into 27 doubles and 26 homers at the Cell, but there may be other examples. You might even be able to get another arm out of the Brewers for Garland. Garland for Ryan Howard is a no-brainer IMHO.

QUOTE(Randar68 @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 01:21 PM) 1) We lose a significant chunk of contracts this offseason which is how Pauly's 2 million dollar rasie doesn't add payroll when other things are considered. Shingo's salary (2.5 million) Carl's salary ( 4 million) Frank's salary (8 million) Timo + Blum = ~ 1.55 million Ben Davis something like 1-2 million have you read this thread where that has been detailed? Now, if you trade Marte, El Duque and Uribe, you clear another El Duque's 2006 salary will be about 5 million based on escalator based on incentive with another 2 million in possible incentive... for this, we'll just call it 5, and the team may have to eat some of it to deal him (or include him with prospects or exchanging money in a deal)... Marte will make 2.25 million in 2006. Uribe will make 3.15M in 2006 and 4.15M in 2007 with a 5M option for 2008. That's over 10 million dollars in additional salary clearance, in addition to what I am projecting as 10 million in increased payroll (based on KW statements that JR had given him additional money that he had available on the order of ~ 5 million plus playoff revenues and projected increases in season ticket sales. So, my plan is based on resigning Pauly and giving the slated raises and ending up where we are today. Then signing Furcal, trading Marte/ElDuque/Uribe to acquire that DH... in one or multiple deals that may also have to include prospects... Why is this so far-fetched in your mind? What part doesn't mesh with reality? (I understand El Duque's salary isn't all that attractive to a team to take it on, but it's all short-term money, not long-term commitment) Spot on analysis. However, I'd be more inclined to trade Garland than El Duque - he'd bring a better return (I think the Jon Garland after the ASB is the true Jon Garland), and El Duque's salary will be similar to Garland's after arbitration this offseason. Both are free agents after 2006, and, to be quite honest, even if Garland is as good as he was in 2005 next year, a Buehrle-Garcia-Contreras (second half) - Garland - McCarthy (last five starts) is overkill in the AL Central and the resources are better spent on left-handed, power hitting. I never thought I'd say the Sox have too much starting pitching, but it really does that way (and the fact that Gio Gonzalez is on the way is even better).

QUOTE(3E8 @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 01:13 PM) Anyone think we have a realistic chance of making Dunn a member of this team next year? I'd say no for two reasons: (1) The "Where would he play?" problem. He'd half to play LF, and Kenny and Ozzie think that Podsednik was the reason they won 99 games, instead of Garland (improvement), Contreras (improvement) and El Duque (passable 5th starter). There's no room for him in the OF. (2) Dunn got into it with the manager in Cincy, and also strikes out a whole bunch. Not quite in the Ozzie/Kenny "smart ball", "grinder" mold. Would I replace Podsednik with Dunn? Every day and twice on Sunday. I'd probably have Iguchi or Rowand lead off (with the other one take the #2 hole), hit Konerko third, and let Dunn clear the decks from the cleanup spot.

QUOTE(YASNY @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 11:52 AM) If they sign Frank to a $6M contract after the buyout, it'll only cost them .... $6M. I was suggesting they sign him to $6 million in lieu of the buyout - i.e., a functional $2.5 million contract. I'm not sure what Frank's free agent value is on the market. He's played about 100 games in the last two years and next year is his age 38 season. Interesting to see what offers he would get.

QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Oct 13, 2005 -> 11:25 AM) We are not going to spend that much money this year. If we secure a #3 and #4 hitter, we are looking at least a $15 million increase over last year, right away. Once you figure in raises and the like for existing players, that takes us to $90 million right away. I think Paulie is the #4 hitter next year, and he'll be in line for a $2-$3 million raise only. ($10-$11 million) A fair amount of money will come off the books in 2006 - Everett ($4m), Thomas ($8m), such that the Sox can get a #3 hitter and stay roughly even with 2005. Mind you, I can also see the Sox giving Big Frank a 1-year, $6 million deal. Reinsdorf loves Frank, and will want to keep him if it makes sense. Frank was a very good citizen this year, too. They'll owe him $3.5 million from buy out, so it'll cost the Sox only $2.5 million. If Frank is healthy, he'd still be the most dangerous hitter on the Sox, even if he declines to .265/.370/.550. Not sure who else would sign Frank; in the AL (Frank can only play DH at this point), the Yankees are set on DH with Giambi, and the Red Sox with Big Papi. I guess the Angels are one option (close to Frank's Vegas home), but everyone else is too cheap to dish out the $5 million it'll take to risk on Frank.

QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Oct 12, 2005 -> 05:07 PM) CoughJulioLugoCough Furcal - 9M/yr Lugo - 4M/yr Lugo's #1 player comp? - Rafael Furcal Furcal's #1 comp is...Jimmy Rollins. I don't get Furcal at $9M per year. If he had a .390 OBP like his rookie year when he took 73 walks vs. 440 AB, sure. But not at a .340 OBP. I think Uribe will put up a .340 OBP next year himself. Seriously. I have noticed a dramatic increase in his willingness to lay off pitches - especially 2 strike pitches - over the last few months. Uribe walks by month: April -- 5 May -- 3 June -- 4 July -- 4 August - 7 September - 10 If Juan can walk 51 times a year, which is his Aug/Sept. walk rate, he'll hit .280 or so (he'll be swinging at better pitches) and he'll have a .340 OBP. Add that to the fact that next year will be his age 26 season (he turns 27 in late July), there is a LOT of upside for the Sox to expect on Uribe.

QUOTE(Randar68 @ Oct 12, 2005 -> 01:37 PM) And again, while I don't really advocate it, look at Hermida and Francouer... Young could make that jump next spring... That would moot everything, wouldn't it? Trade Rowand and Anderson and let Young develop away. Heck the Sox might even be able to get a left handed bat for Rowand and Anderson.

QUOTE(Randar68 @ Oct 12, 2005 -> 12:44 PM) Anderson ain't gonna be a 4th OF'er getting 200 AB's... that's almost useless. Need to have consistency and REGULAR playing time. Some people haven't come to grips with this yet. Some of these same people are thinking Young will be the starting CF'er in 2007 and Anderson will then be a full-time player, meaning you're breaking in 2 guys at once... I guess they don't see the value in rebuilding the outfield incrementally? Not sure 200 AB at the major league level - i.e., playing 1/3 the schedule - is that irregular of playing time. I guess their are a few possibilities for the Sox OF next year assuming Dye (set to make $5 million next year) and Podsednik are givens: (1) Dye-Rowand-Podsednik with Timo as 4th OF (2) Dye-Rowand-Podsednik with Anderson as 4th OF (3) Dye-Rowand-Podsednik with free agent better than Timo as 4th OF (4) Dye-Anderson-Podsednik (Rowand traded) with Timo as 4th OF (5) Dye-Anderson-Podsednik (Rowand traded) with free agent better than Timo as 4th OF Of all these scenarios, #1 scares me the most, because it's no improvement, except for whatever natural improvement Dye (not likely) Rowand (likely) and Podsednik (somewhat likely) have. Randar, if you are saying that you'd rather see Dye-Anderson-Podsednik than Dye-Rowand-Podsednik, that's fine, and a reasonable case can be made for that. I'd much rather see scenario 5 rather than 4, though. However, I think that Rowand brings less in trade value in the 2005-06 offseason than he would either mid-season '06 or in the '06-'07 season. I think Rowand bounces back to a .820-.830 OPS next season (say .275/.345/.485) with good counting stats like 20 HR and 80 RBI. If Rowand is back (and I think he will be), I'd much prefer that the Sox keep Anderson at the MLB level instead of having a stiff like Timo on the roster as the 4th OF. If you can upgrade over Timo, fine, keep Anderson at Charlotte. But if it's Anderson/Timo for the 4th OF spot, I'll pick Anderson every time, even if the 200 scattered at bats don't allow for his best development.

This is f***tarded so far. The thing that pisses me off most is that they aren't working Byrd at all. Everything is early in the count. The one guy who took him deep in the count - Pierzynski - got an RBI knock. We'll see the Angel bullpen in the 7th, methinks.

QUOTE(3E8 @ Oct 11, 2005 -> 04:11 PM) Let me put it this way, I'd rather use $40 million to sign a 35 year old Giles as a DH rather than using it to sign a 30 year old Konerko as a 1B. The chances of this happening are slim to none. I'd agree the chances are slim, but what do you think are the reasons why the chances are slim? (1) Giles won't leave Cali; (2) The Sox won't let Konerko go; (3) The Sox wouldn't spend $40 million on a 35 year old (4) The Sox won't spend that money on anyone? Just curious. I actually see #1 as the biggest reason, followed by #2. I'd also agree with you that Giles' 36-38 year old seasons at the Cell would likely be better (sabremetrically, at least) than Konerko's 31-33 seasons.

QUOTE(Controlled Chaos @ Oct 11, 2005 -> 03:23 PM) Still it was no where near what el duque did. 1st and 2nd with no outs and I believe a 3 run lead is a helluva lot different from bases juiced no outs 1 run lead. I mean a fly out and the game is tied in duques situation...hell even a well placed ground ball could have scored a run. Santana had some wiggle room. The game was tied at the time Santana came in with a 3-2 count on Cano in the top of the 2nd. He threw ball 4 to Cano, then Williams missed a sign and Cano got caught stealing (was a hit and run); Williams walked, Posada walked (now Santana has put THREE guys on), Crosby singled, scoring a run, then Jeter hit a sac fly. Then A-Rod, who sucks when a game is important, struck out swinging. Those runs belonged to Santana; El Duque saved the Sox from Marte's runs. After that, Santana was great, but hey, 3 runs in 5 1/3 was his entire performance. You can't say Freddy Garcia was great in Game 3 except when he pitched to Big Papi and Manny. As it turns out, those runs by Papi and Manny counted.

QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Oct 11, 2005 -> 10:12 AM) He's 3 for 15 against Byrd career wise, 5 for 18 against Lackey, 6 for 30 against Colon, 0 for 7 against Washburn, so not the greatest numbers there either, but they're still respectable. Another reason to start the Widge against Washburn. Widge went big time on Washburn this year. 3-4 with a long one. Must have called a good game, too, because the Angels only scored 2 runs.

QUOTE(Reddy @ Oct 11, 2005 -> 02:03 PM) i dont really put the blame on crosby is that situation cuz sheffield was leaping for the ball while crosby was about to catch it on the ground... plus hes the CF and has the right of way... Have to blame Crosby...Bernie Williams woudn't have gotten within 30 yards of that ball.

QUOTE(Wedge @ Oct 11, 2005 -> 12:47 PM) OK, this has been pissing me off for a bit. What about 5 1/3 IP 3 ER is an incredible outing? It's definitely not even a quality start. Agreed. Wouldn't even meet the low threshhold of a quality start, and his season ERA was better than that performance. He gave up 8 baserunners in those 5 1/3 innings - he's lucky the Yankees didn't toast him and that Matsui is a huge choker. If the Angels as a team have a 5.03 ERA and 1.5 WHIP like Santana did in his "Great" performance last night against the Sox, they are screwed. If Crosby and Sheffield don't collide, or if Sheffield holds on, everyone would be talking about Jeter's home run in the 7th (assuming the Yankees went on to win) off of Santana and how great Jeter is, and how great Randy Johnson is. Thank goodness for Bubba Crosby!