they have real problems...Lee is not a true #1 and has a history of being erratic....carmona is the same....then that 3-4-5 is really, really bad....combine that with what looks like a PED-based decline of Hafner, and a pretty poor defensive team and you certainly dont have a recipe for a division title.....
Now don't get me wrong, I love sabrmetrics and truly believe in the value they provide to the game, but I honestly think ESPN takes those franchises that utilize it more than others and automatically picks them to win their divisions...i mean, every year people pick the A's and indians, and every year the Angels and Whitesox/Twins are atop the division (2007 notwithstanding)